Personalized dynamic risk assessment in nephrology is a next step in prognostic research

Abstract

In nephrology, repeated measures are frequently available (glomerular filtration rate or proteinuria) and linked to adverse outcomes. However, several features of these longitudinal data should be considered before making such inferences. These considerations are discussed, and we describe how joint modeling of repeatedly measured and time-to-event data may help to assess disease dynamics and to derive personalized prognosis. Joint modeling combines linear mixed-effects models and Cox regression model to relate patient-specific trajectory to their prognosis. We describe several aspects of the relationship between time-varying markers and the endpoint of interest that are assessed with real examples to illustrate the aforementioned aspects of the longitudinal data provided. Thus, joint models are valuable statistical tools for study purposes but also may help health care providers in making well-informed dynamic medical decisions. © 2018 International Society of Nephrology