Echocardiographic Predictors of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: Assessing Atrial Mechanics for Risk Stratification

Abstract

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery, increasing morbidity and healthcare costs. This study aimed to identify echocardiographic predictors of POAF to improve risk stratification. A total of 131 patients undergoing cardiac surgery were analyzed and divided into two groups based on POAF occurrence. Echocardiographic analysis showed that patients with POAF had larger left and right atrial dimensions and impaired atrial function. Prolonged total atrial conduction time (TACT), reduced atrial emptying volumes, and contractile function were more common in the POAF group. Univariable analysis identified LAEF (χ2 = 71.8, p < 0.001), LAKE (χ2 = 70.1, p < 0.001), RATEF (χ2 = 65.7, p < 0.001), and RAAEF (χ2 = 66.8, p < 0.001) as significant predictors of POAF, each with an area under the curve (AUC) greater than 0.89. In multivariable analysis, LAKE (OR = 0.27, p < 0.001), hypertension (OR = 11.87, p = 0.035), left ventricular ejection fraction (OR = 1.08, p = 0.020), and peripheral vascular disease (OR = 40.28, p = 0.002) were independent predictors. The final model showed a significant discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.94). LAKE and clinical factors remained independent predictors after adjustment. © 2025 by the authors.