Browsing by Author "Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)"

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    Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801), (S0140673620301148), (10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30114-8))
    (2020)
    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
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    Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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    Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)
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    Baumann, Mathew M. (57211550981)
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    Lindstedt, Paulina A. (57211558396)
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    Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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    Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624)
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    Earl, Lucas (57190371340)
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    Munro, Sandra B. (7004622934)
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    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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    Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900)
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    Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816)
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    Abebe, Getaneh (57202422848)
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    Abegaz, Kedir Hussein (57200726326)
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    Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400)
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    Abrigo, Michael R.M. (56018773400)
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    Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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    Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600)
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    Adabi, Maryam (57190491886)
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    Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853)
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    Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)
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    Adham, Davoud (55346682700)
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    Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000)
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    Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300)
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    Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300)
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    Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000)
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    Ahmed, Anwar E. (58205901100)
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    Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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    Ahmed, Rushdia (57195530549)
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    Ajumobi, Olufemi (14033771400)
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    Akal, Chalachew Genet (57205385708)
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    Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie (57203189637)
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    Akanda, Ali S. (35290419100)
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    Alamene, Genet Melak (57211135938)
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    Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000)
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    Albright, James R. (57210320079)
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    Alcalde Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200)
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    Alemnew, Birhan Tamene (57211138846)
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    Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw (57202557784)
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    Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir (57208356112)
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    Ali, Muhammad (57221004192)
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    Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700)
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    Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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    Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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    Almasi, Ali (19433600700)
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    Almasi-Hashiani, Amir (42360952700)
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    Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. (8625547100)
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    Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
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    Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009)
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    Amini, Saeed (57210811281)
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    Amit, Arianna Maever Loreche (57211322011)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Anegago, Masresha Tessema (57216865286)
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    Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282)
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    Ansari, Fereshteh (56478531800)
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    Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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    Antriyandarti, Ernoiz (57201775415)
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    Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw (57204569403)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
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    Armoon, Bahram (57191472455)
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    Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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    Arzani, Afsaneh (57094774900)
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    Asadi-Lari, Mohsen (6603191961)
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    Ashagre, Alebachew Fasil (57211139593)
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    Atalay, Hagos Tasew (57203535974)
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    Atique, Suleman (56505419100)
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    Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900)
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    Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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    Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100)
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    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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    Awoke, Nefsu (57207257383)
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    Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700)
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    Ayano, Getinet (57189617474)
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    Ayanore, Martin Amogre (57070358300)
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    Ayele, Asnakew Achaw (57194280930)
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    Aynalem, Yared Asmare (57214332450)
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    Azari, Samad (56396696500)
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    Babaee, Ebrahim (57217157164)
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    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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    Bakkannavar, Shankar M. (34970692400)
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    Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar (56640778400)
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    Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
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    Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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    Basaleem, Huda (6505771974)
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    Bassat, Quique (23024176000)
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    Bayati, Mohsen (56906776500)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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    Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000)
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    Bekele, Yibeltal Alemu (57214868211)
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    Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450)
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    Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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    Berbada, Dessalegn Ajema (57195346523)
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    Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763)
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    Bhat, Anusha Ganapati (57208836680)
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    Bhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)
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    Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200)
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    Bhaumik, Soumyadeep (55643126300)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bikbov, Boris (57219957158)
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    Biswas, Raaj Kishore (57194226969)
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    Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw (57209212251)
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    Bohlouli, Somayeh (56523246300)
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    Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651)
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    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi (57212030091)
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    Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich (57202792237)
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    Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich (7004344976)
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    Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath (46961272800)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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    Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar (6505846919)
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    Cárdenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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    Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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    Castro, Franz (57204567353)
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    Chansa, Collins (24400981500)
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    Chatterjee, Pranab (57202798650)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Chauhan, Bal Govind (57195315447)
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    Chin, Ken Lee (57216745370)
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    Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Claro, Rafael M. (16834671700)
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    Cormier, Natalie M. (57216638260)
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    Costa, Vera M. (17134373000)
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    Damiani, Giovanni (57218701806)
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    Daoud, Farah (57201079837)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Darwish, Amira Hamed (57194473558)
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    Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200)
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    Das, Jai K. (55644705500)
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    Das Gupta, Rajat (57215122060)
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    Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye (57204268402)
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    Davila, Claudio Alberto (45561136400)
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    Davis Weaver, Nicole (57203300193)
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    Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil (57202555163)
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    De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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    Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen (57204717669)
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    Demis, Asmamaw Bizuneh (57207453281)
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    Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam (57202214514)
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    Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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    Desalew, Assefa (57203766919)
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    Dessie, Getenet Ayalew (57202055866)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57216324802)
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    Dhillon, Preeti (55520200200)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Dhungana, Govinda Prasad (24066372700)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Ding, Eric L. (54413849800)
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    Diro, Helen Derara (57204564180)
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    Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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    Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094)
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    Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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    Dolecek, Christiane (35784177100)
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    Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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    Dubljanin, Eleonora (55957442600)
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    Duko Adema, Bereket (56845644100)
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    Dunachie, Susanna J. (57225394332)
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    Durães, Andre R. (30867558600)
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    Duraisamy, Senbagam (58956978800)
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    Effiong, Andem (57213158150)
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    Eftekhari, Aziz (56829076800)
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    El Sayed, Iman (7004479194)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    El Tantawi, Maha (57214851491)
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    Elemineh, Demelash Abewa (57214777126)
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    El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. (34869528300)
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    Elkout, Hajer (36102315300)
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    Elsharkawy, Aisha (55683285000)
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    Enany, Shymaa (23972375400)
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    Endalamaw, Aklilu (57202040629)
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    Endalew, Daniel Adane (57211158603)
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    Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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    Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100)
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    Etemadi, Arash (7004686554)
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    Farag, Tamer H. (16230217600)
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    Faraon, Emerito Jose A. (57195414019)
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    Fareed, Mohammad (24491815600)
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    Faridnia, Roghiyeh (55945212000)
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    Farioli, Andrea (57207608705)
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    Faro, Andre (36770969600)
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    Farzam, Hossein (57202061001)
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    Fazaeli, Ali Akbar (57204568731)
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    Fazlzadeh, Mehdi (55199878200)
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    Fentahun, Netsanet (56394665400)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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    Francis, Joel Msafiri (35198028700)
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    Franklin, Richard Charles (7201428429)
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    Frostad, Joseph Jon (57222306717)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Gayesa, Reta Tsegaye (57225049499)
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    Gebremariam, Kidane Tadesse (57191226393)
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    Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork (57200529247)
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    Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn (57748459200)
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    Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze (57204453564)
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    Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea (57204563310)
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    Geta, Birhanu (57208190927)
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    Gezae, Kebede Embaye (57204561611)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Ghassemi, Fariba (35271776100)
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    Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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    Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed (57192378390)
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    Goli, Srinivas (39761832500)
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    Gomes, Nelson G.M. (55326199700)
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    Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
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    Goulart, Barbara Niegia Garcia (55958854600)
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    Grada, Ayman (55797741000)
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    Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008)
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    Guido, Davide (56314778600)
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    Guimarães, Rafael Alves (56534712800)
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    Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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    Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
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    Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Haile, Michael Tamene (57204564050)
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    Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arya (57226201352)
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    Hall, Brian James (57218302519)
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    Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes (57201501075)
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    Haririan, Hamidreza (36157009700)
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    Hariyani, Ninuk (57190349243)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hasan, Md. Mehedi (57213529757)
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    Hasanzadeh, Amir (57193162243)
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    Hassankhani, Hadi (26436359700)
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    Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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    Hayelom, Desta Haftu (57216638000)
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    Heidari, Behnam (6603217356)
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    Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616)
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    Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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    Heydarpour, Fatemeh (57192381690)
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    de Hidru, Hagos D. (57216634249)
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    Hoang, Chi Linh (57205123375)
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    Hoogar, Praveen (57204240256)
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    Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Mojtaba (57003517600)
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    Hossain, Naznin (57195380270)
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    Hosseini, Mostafa (57204569481)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Househ, Mowafa (8667908000)
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    Hu, Guoqing (57218106596)
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    Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300)
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    Hussain, Syed Ather (56910575300)
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    Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja (55988289600)
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    Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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    Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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    Iwu, Chinwe Juliana (56904084900)
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    Jaca, Anelisa (57191066193)
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    Jafari Balalami, Nader (57211139609)
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    Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    Jalali, Amir (23469738000)
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    Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (57204797176)
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    Jenabi, Ensiyeh (15755615100)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423)
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    Ji, John S. (58562329500)
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    Jia, Peng (55092981100)
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    Johnson, Kimberly B. (57207359220)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Jóźwiak, Jacek Jerzy (21833993700)
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    Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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    Kabir, Zubair (57207901718)
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    Kahsay, Amaha (57216608121)
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    Kalani, Hamed (54984350500)
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    Kanchan, Tanuj (35237157900)
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    Karami Matin, Behzad (56943457000)
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    Karch, Andre (55917217700)
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    Karki, Surendra (55329873800)
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    Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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    Kasahun, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie (57209913312)
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    Kayode, Gbenga A. (53463867400)
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    Kazemi Karyani, Ali (56664511600)
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    Keiyoro, Peter Njenga (57203177260)
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    Ketema, Daniel Bekele (57207259667)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif (55608324700)
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    Khalid, Nauman (57204561542)
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    Khalil, Ali Talha (55978863400)
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    Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500)
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    Khalilov, Rovshan (57193308858)
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    Khan, Md Nuruzzaman (57209404949)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khan, Gulfaraz (6701635515)
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    Khan, Junaid (57203436148)
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    Khatab, Khaled (27267685100)
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    Khater, Amir (57211138055)
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    Khater, Mona M. (57203308114)
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    Khatony, Alireza (32667760800)
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    Khayamzadeh, Maryam (57212086295)
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    Khazaei, Mohammad (57204562878)
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    Khazaei, Salman (55420466900)
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    Khodamoradi, Ehsan (23094184200)
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    Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein (56524167000)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A. (57199100665)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kimokoti, Ruth W. (8647554600)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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    Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038)
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    Kondlahalli, Shivakumar K.M. (57221603938)
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    Kosek, Margaret N. (6701330606)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Kraemer, Moritz U.G. (56308225600)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Kugbey, Nuworza (57195398167)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Manasi (21739940700)
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    Kumar, Pushpendra (57208849920)
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    Kusuma, Dian (57190047530)
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    La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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    Lacey, Ben (7004338442)
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    Lal, Aparna (55163011100)
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    Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984)
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    Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
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    Lansingh, Van C. (57209471470)
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    Lasrado, Savita (36632480900)
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    Lee, Paul H. (57200302692)
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    Leili, Mostafa (57204565987)
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    Lenjebo, Tsegaye Lolaso (57212018109)
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    Levine, Aubrey J. (57189577844)
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    Lewycka, Sonia (57212496031)
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    Li, Shanshan (57216631901)
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    Linn, Shai (7102590173)
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    Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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    Longbottom, Joshua (56785671300)
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    Lopukhov, Platon D. (57191340780)
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    Magdeldin, Sameh (22634774300)
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    Mahasha, Phetole Walter (28767805500)
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    Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur (55924241300)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Mamun, Abdullah A. (55666602500)
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    Manafi, Farzad (55351495800)
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    Manafi, Navid (57190424904)
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    Manda, Ana-Laura (57204567674)
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    Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)
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    Mapoma, Chabila Christopher (57208956832)
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    Marami, Dadi (57200546490)
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    Marczak, Laurie B. (57200295553)
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    Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio (57204796807)
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    März, Winfried (57220877383)
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    Masaka, Anthony (57204084551)
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    Mathur, Manu Raj (55270329300)
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    Maulik, Pallab K. (7005919685)
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    Mayala, Benjamin K. (23980407900)
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    McAlinden, Colm (35325278500)
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    Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864)
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    Mehrotra, Ravi (7203045563)
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    Mehta, Kala M. (7201939418)
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    Meles, Gebrekiros Gebremichael (57211140536)
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    Melese, Addisu (56901393600)
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    Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350)
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    Mena, Alemayehu Toma (57212025187)
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    Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900)
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    Mengesha, Melkamu Merid (57192953602)
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    Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)
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    Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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    Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900)
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    Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2020)
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    Yamagishi, Kazumasa (35231751500)
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    Yaminfirooz, Mousa (55622855800)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yaya, Sanni (55191139800)
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    Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid (56017415700)
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    Yeheyis, Tomas Y. (57219861340)
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    Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo (36057611800)
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    Yilma, Mekdes Tigistu (57212019529)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Younker, Theodore Patrick (57209007213)
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    Yousefi, Bahman (55661388000)
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    Yousefi, Zabihollah (9743306100)
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    Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh (57039201000)
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    Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf (57219860971)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)
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    Moghadam, Telma Zahirian (57201718494)
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    Zamani, Mohammad (59866744200)
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    Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465)
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    Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zhao, Jeff T. (57221069965)
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    Zhao, Xiu-Ju George (8360350900)
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    Zhao, Yingxi (57194059646)
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    Zheng, Peng (57213707656)
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    Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200)
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    Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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    Zimsen, Stephanie R. M. (57196078433)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
    Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2016: Results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study
    (2018)
    Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)
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    Maddison, Emilie R. (57196084094)
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    Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616)
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    Ledesma, Jorge R. (57204449040)
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    Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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    Reiner, Robert (57203229088)
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    Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812)
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    Shields, Chloe (57196083232)
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    Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron (57195835977)
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    Ross, Jennifer M. (56895463600)
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    Carter, Austin (57201756395)
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    Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110)
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    Wang, Haidong (16507828100)
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    Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031)
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    Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719)
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    Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar (57206276269)
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    Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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    Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764)
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    Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir (57208356112)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Andrews, Jason R. (15058787200)
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    Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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    Atique, Suleman (56505419100)
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    Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900)
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    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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    Ayele, Henok Tadesse (55573710400)
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    Badali, Hamid (15123728900)
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    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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    Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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    Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000)
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    Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941)
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    Belay, Saba Abraham (57203298880)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Carvalho, Félix (7103070417)
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    Cercy, Kelly (57208777587)
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    Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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    Daba, Alemneh Kabeta (57203300408)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200)
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    Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen (57204717669)
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    Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57216324802)
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    Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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    Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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    Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200)
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    El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000)
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    Enany, Shymaa (23972375400)
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    Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168)
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    Gebre, Abadi Kahsu (59426751000)
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    Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000)
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    Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo (57204566728)
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    Gelano, Tilayie Feto (57200628899)
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    Geremew, Demeke (57196299505)
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    Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762)
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    Goodridge, Amador (55801980200)
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    Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
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    Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast (57201491554)
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    Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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    Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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    Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse (23979915700)
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    Henok, Andualem (57196451824)
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    Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800)
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    Hussen, Mamusha Aman (57221268448)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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    Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100)
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    Johnson, Sarah C. (57207904886)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Kahsay, Amaha (57216608121)
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    Kant, Surya (59567335600)
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    Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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    Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale (58686045600)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif (55608324700)
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    Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kochhar, Sonali (57214107714)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Krohn, Kristopher J. (57194138806)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Lakew, Ayenew Molla (57200821341)
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    Leshargie, Cheru Tesema (57195295462)
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    Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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    MacArayan, Erlyn Rachelle King (56330601800)
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    Majdzadeh, Reza (9246620000)
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    Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807)
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    Melese, Addisu (56901393600)
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    Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)
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    Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Moazen, Babak (57204324006)
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    Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500)
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    Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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    Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960)
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    Nachega, Jean B. (6701544088)
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    Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800)
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    Nguyen, Son Hoang (59662830400)
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    Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200)
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    Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470)
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    Nirayo, Yirga Legesse (57201651103)
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    Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200)
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    Ofori-Asenso, Richard (57209300265)
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    Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57217186813)
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    Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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    Oladimeji, Olanrewaju (57216495380)
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    Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700)
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    Oren, Eyal (36815569400)
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    Pereira, David M. (57200690024)
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    Prakash, Swayam (57212263375)
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    Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900)
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    Ram, Usha (26653819000)
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    Rubino, Salvatore (55240504800)
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    Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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    Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893)
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    Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200)
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    Silva, João Pedro (57204703526)
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    Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Vu, Giang (57202424871)
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    Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300)
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    Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895)
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    Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05-10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16-1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01-1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16-0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the agestandardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (-1·3% [-1·5 to -1·2]) than mortality did (-4·5% [-5·0 to -4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was -4·0% (-4·5 to -3·7) and mortality was -8·9% (-9·5 to -8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). Interpretation If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s).
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    Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study
    (2022)
    Frostad, Joseph Jon (57222306717)
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    Nguyen, QuynhAnh P. (57211556351)
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    Baumann, Mathew M. (57211550981)
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    Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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    Marczak, Laurie B. (57200295553)
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    Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)
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    Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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    LeGrand, Kate E. (57216789066)
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    Johnson, Kimberly B. (57207359220)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abdoli, Amir (59421084100)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400)
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    Abrigo, Michael R. M. (56018773400)
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    Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Agrawal, Anurag (59030333500)
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    Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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    Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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    Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)
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    Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200)
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    Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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    Altirkawi, Khalid A. (57202762923)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
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    Amegah, Adeladza Kofi (55542401600)
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    Amini, Saeed (57210811281)
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    Amiri, Fatemeh (57201297148)
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    Amugsi, Dickson A. (24461463800)
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    Ancuceanu, Robert (35728302200)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400)
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    Antriyandarti, Ernoiz (57201775415)
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    Anvari, Davood (57201259536)
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    Arab-Zozani, Morteza (57210284593)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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    Ayano, Getinet (57189617474)
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    Azari, Samad (56396696500)
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    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
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    Balakrishnan, Kalpana (7103222725)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Basu, Sanjay (9335409500)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450)
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    Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (57415572700)
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    Bibi, Sadia (57524553300)
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    Bohlouli, Somayeh (56523246300)
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    Boufous, Soufiane (6507794444)
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    Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi (57212030091)
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    Braithwaite, Dejana (7006987079)
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    Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina (46961272800)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano (56373058500)
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    Car, Josip (6701783618)
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    Cárdenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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    Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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    Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio (12774601300)
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    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
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    Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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    Chattu, Soosanna Kumary (57209796729)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Chaturvedi, Pankaj (35547314900)
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    Chaturvedi, Sarika (55540347700)
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    Chen, Simiao (57203514169)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Chung, Sheng-Chia (56008137900)
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    Dahlawi, Saad M. A. (57189234459)
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    Damiani, Giovanni (57218701806)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Darwesh, Aso Mohammad (57199749880)
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    Das, Jai K. (55644705500)
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    Dash, Aditya Prasad (57205497428)
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    Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto (45561136400)
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    De Leo, Diego (7006128644)
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    De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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    Demissie, Getu Debalkie (57209744415)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dey, Sagnik (7402866430)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57216324802)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Dhungana, Govinda Prasad (24066372700)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Dipeolu, Isaac Oluwafemi (56587933400)
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    Dorostkar, Fariba (57214882995)
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    Doshmangir, Leila (44261140600)
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    Duraes, Andre Rodrigues (30867558600)
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    Edinur, Hisham Atan (57287676500)
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    Efendi, Ferry (55301269100)
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    Tantawi, Maha El (57214851491)
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    Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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    Fadhil, Ibtihal (15047805100)
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    Fattahi, Nazir (16642728600)
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    Fauk, Nelsensius Klau (57070534400)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin (56725310700)
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    Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji (25031248900)
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    Ghafourifard, Mansour (57193420915)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gilani, Syed Amir (37008269900)
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    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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    Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300)
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    Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346)
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    Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer (57211312277)
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    Schwebel, David C. (6603681532)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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    Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352)
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    Shiferaw, Wondimeneh Shibabaw (57214329180)
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    Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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    Shin, Jae Il (57964880100)
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    Siddiqi, Tariq Jamal (57193718539)
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    Singh, Balbir Bagicha (16680213100)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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    Sintayehu, Yitagesu (57216204612)
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    Sorrie, Muluken Bekele (57195303874)
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    Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400)
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    Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth (57218543838)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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    Stockfelt, Leo (26022098300)
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    Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57226205764)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400)
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    Taherkhani, Amir (57203973738)
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    Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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    Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Traini, Eugenio (57211137081)
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    Ullah, Saif (57219395828)
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    Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Varughese, Santosh (22942817500)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Welgan, Catherine A. (57188448200)
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    Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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    Yaya, Sanni (55191139800)
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    Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid (56017415700)
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    Yilma, Mekdes Tigistu (57212019529)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh (57039201000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yu, Yong (55628587954)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Brauer, Michael (57218330976)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
    Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
    (2020)
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    Bhaumik, Soumyadeep (55643126300)
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    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300)
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    Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A. (56183368000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)
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    Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258)
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    Moghadam, Telma Zahirian (57201718494)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
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    Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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    Zar, Heather J. (7006236599)
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    Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Zuniga, Yves Miel H. (57194979049)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
    Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Publication
    Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
    (2020)
    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
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    Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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    Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094)
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    Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293)
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    Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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    Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish (54407369300)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Wada, Fiseha Wadilo (57194049305)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wang, Yafeng (57208674780)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay (57211811032)
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    Wiangkham, Taweewat (56829456300)
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    Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509)
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    Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu (57207771936)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A. (56183368000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)
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    Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
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    Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos (57193255530)
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    Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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    Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)
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    Zepro, Nejimu Biza (57193095335)
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    Zewale, Taye Abuhay (57209219258)
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    Zhang, Dongyu (57216327764)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Zhao, Xiu-Ju (8360350900)
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    Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
    Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
    (2020)
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    Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu (57207771936)
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    Wonde, Tewodros Eshete (57207759070)
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    Worku, Getasew Taddesse (57218197319)
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    Wu, Ai-Min (57203702647)
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    Xu, Gelin (57203583113)
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    Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896)
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    Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100)
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    Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800)
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    Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304)
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    Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144)
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    Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo (36057611800)
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    Yilma, Mekdes Tigistu (57212019529)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yisma, Engida (55556060700)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585)
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    Yousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A. (56183368000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)
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    Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
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    Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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    Zepro, Nejimu Biza (57193095335)
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    Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Zhao, Xiu-Ju George (8360350900)
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    Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Zuniga, Yves Miel H. (57194979049)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
    Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of lower respiratory infections among children younger than 5 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
    (2020)
    Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624)
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    Khalil, Ibrahim A. (58255049500)
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    Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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    Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812)
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    Albertson, Samuel B. (57204573505)
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    Zimsen, Stephanie R.M. (57196078433)
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    Rao, Puja C. (57191835613)
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    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700)
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    Ahmed, Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim (57258605600)
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    Akal, Chalachew Genet (57205385708)
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    Alam, Noore (57202437697)
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    Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764)
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    Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720)
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    Moore, Catrin E. (57195934063)
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    Pakhale, Smita (57220937499)
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    Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502)
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    Milicevic, Milena M. Santric (57211144346)
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    Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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    Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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    Smith, David L. (55574206203)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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    Veisani, Yousef (55370882600)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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    Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509)
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    Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57204849530)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zar, Heather J. (7006236599)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
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    Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
    Background: Despite large reductions in under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRI) mortality in many locations, the pace of progress for LRIs has generally lagged behind that of other childhood infectious diseases. To better inform programmes and policies focused on preventing and treating LRIs, we assessed the contributions and patterns of risk factor attribution, intervention coverage, and sociodemographic development in 195 countries and territories by drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) LRI estimates. Methods: We used four strategies to model LRI burden: the mortality due to LRIs was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive ensemble modelling tool; the incidence of LRIs was modelled using population representative surveys, health-care utilisation data, and scientific literature in a compartmental meta-regression tool; the attribution of risk factors for LRI mortality was modelled in a counterfactual framework; and trends in LRI mortality were analysed applying changes in exposure to risk factors over time. In GBD, infectious disease mortality, including that due to LRI, is among HIV-negative individuals. We categorised locations based on their burden in 1990 to make comparisons in the changing burden between 1990 and 2017 and evaluate the relative percent change in mortality rate, incidence, and risk factor exposure to explain differences in the health loss associated with LRIs among children younger than 5 years. Findings: In 2017, LRIs caused 808 920 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 747 286–873 591) in children younger than 5 years. Since 1990, there has been a substantial decrease in the number of deaths (from 2 337 538 to 808 920 deaths; 65·4% decrease, 61·5–68·5) and in mortality rate (from 362·7 deaths [330·1–392·0] per 100 000 children to 118·9 deaths [109·8–128·3] per 100 000 children; 67·2% decrease, 63·5–70·1). LRI incidence declined globally (32·4% decrease, 27·2–37·5). The percent change in under-5 mortality rate and incidence has varied across locations. Among the risk factors assessed in this study, those responsible for the greatest decrease in under-5 LRI mortality between 1990 and 2017 were increased coverage of vaccination against Haemophilus influenza type b (11·4% decrease, 0·0–24·5), increased pneumococcal vaccine coverage (6·3% decrease, 6·1–6·3), and reductions in household air pollution (8·4%, 6·8–9·2). Interpretation: Our findings show that there have been substantial but uneven declines in LRI mortality among countries between 1990 and 2017. Although improvements in indicators of sociodemographic development could explain some of these trends, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors are related to the rates of decline in LRI mortality. No single intervention would universally accelerate reductions in health loss associated with LRIs in all settings, but emphasising the most dominant risk factors, particularly in countries with high case fatality, can contribute to the reduction of preventable deaths. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4·0 license