Browsing by Author "Stein, Caroline (57196039610)"
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Publication Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(2022) ;Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705) ;Duncan, Bruce B. (35476478500) ;Stein, Caroline (57196039610) ;Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882) ;Abdelmasseh, Michael (57356690000) ;Abdoli, Amir (59421084100) ;Abd-Rabu, Rami (57214966967) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149) ;Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agrawaal, Krishna K. (37103625900) ;Agudelo-Botero, Marcela (58888387100) ;Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030) ;Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022) ;Ahmad, Tauseef (57214283386) ;Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300) ;Ahmadi, Sepideh (58189812000) ;Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515) ;Ahmed, Ali (57201189007) ;Salih, Yusra Ahmed (57407078800) ;Akande-Sholabi, Wuraola (57204532006) ;Akram, Tayyaba (57208951047) ;Al Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200) ;Alipour, Vahid (56436629300) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amini, Saeed (57210811281) ;Ancuceanu, Robert (35728302200) ;Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Anjana, Ranjit Mohan (23992147600) ;Ansar, Adnan (57196006846) ;Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo (57219860691) ;Antony, Benny (55776194600) ;Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419) ;Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927) ;Arizmendi, Damian (57489836300) ;Armocida, Benedetta (57216280659) ;Artamonov, Anton A. (57089921800) ;Arulappan, Judie (57224210161) ;Aryan, Zahra (55479968600) ;Asgari, Samaneh (56010419200) ;Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600) ;Astell-Burt, Thomas (36924540400) ;Atorkey, Prince (57218950488) ;Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi (57195251851) ;Ayanore, Martin Amogre (57070358300) ;Badiye, Ashish D. (56340201200) ;Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600) ;Bairwa, Mohan (50461080100) ;Baker, Jennifer L. 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(55921282400) ;Faisaluddin, Mohammed (57204007767) ;Farooque, Umar (57215323961) ;Feng, Xiaoqi (57211144740) ;Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Flood, David (57189346302) ;Freitas, Marisa (13406823400) ;Gaal, Peter Andras (55966171600) ;Gad, Mohamed M. 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(7101875313) ;Hayat, Khezar (57219918947) ;Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400) ;Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain (36028425500) ;Hossain, Sahadat (57188667199) ;Hosseini, Mostafa (57204569481) ;Hoveidamanesh, Soodabeh (57201943166) ;Huang, Junjie (57199198962) ;Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300) ;Hussain, Rabia (7103224786) ;Hwang, Bing-Fang (7201453928) ;Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408) ;Ikuta, Kevin S. (57211541916) ;Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja (55988289600) ;Iqbal, Usman (55572166900) ;Islam, Md Shariful (59599855500) ;Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100) ;Islam, Rakibul M. (57205202128) ;Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900) ;Isola, Gaetano (25825125500) ;Itumalla, Ramaiah (57212472658) ;Iwagami, Masao (54381883100) ;Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi (57219860603) ;Jahani, Mohammad Ali (56091589300) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700) ;Jayawardena, Ranil (55010295200) ;Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400) ;John, Oommen (56592310300) ;Jonas, Jost B. 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Anil (57139550500) ;Kumar, Nithin (36678889900) ;Kusuma, Dian (57190047530) ;Vecchia, Carlo La (36063266200) ;Lacey, Ben (7004338442) ;Larsson, Anders O. (56381985300) ;Lasrado, Savita (36632480900) ;Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700) ;Lee, Chiachi Bonnie (56101115800) ;Lee, Paul H. (57200302692) ;Lee, Shaun Wen Huey (35201185800) ;Li, Ming-Chieh (56144176300) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Lim, Lee-Ling (56988527400) ;Lucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500) ;Majeed, Azeem (7102027801) ;Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313) ;Mansouri, Borhan (54417707600) ;Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni (7006357517) ;Martini, Santi (57162600900) ;Mathur, Prashant (7201845777) ;McAlinden, Colm (35325278500) ;Mehedi, Nafiul (57219473062) ;Mekonnen, Teferi (57215662987) ;Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900) ;Mersha, Amanual Getnet (57194940075) ;Jonasson, Junmei Miao (35875296300) ;Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689) ;Michalek, Irmina Maria (56982945900) ;Mirica, Andreea (57188983765) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Mirza, Agha Zeeshan (15023104300) ;Mithra, Prasanna (36018632500) ;Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah (55602206500) ;Mohammadpourhodki, Reza (59552855100) ;Mohammed, Arif (57197416979) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400) ;Moradpour, Farhad (55540661600) ;Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah (55179399300) ;Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200) ;Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036) ;Mustafa, Ahmad (57212890480) ;Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Naqvi, Atta Abbas (56501393600) ;Nayak, Biswa Prakash (56639942500) ;Nazari, Javad (57207759174) ;Ndejjo, Rawlance (56586121600) ;Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200) ;Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618) ;Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200) ;Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406) ;Noubiap, Jean Jacques (55490374000) ;Nowak, Christoph (56519458900) ;Oancea, Bogdan (26658614800) ;Odukoya, Oluwakemi Ololade (55356642300) ;Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru (57194328445) ;Ojo, Temitope T. (57206779828) ;Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700) ;Onwujekwe, Obinna E. (7003992855) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892) ;Palladino, Raffaele (57215205417) ;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353) ;Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R. 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(6505786588) ;Rezaei, Nima (57216077273) ;Rezapour, Aziz (55548281300) ;Riahi, Seyed Mohammad (57193205976) ;Ribeiro, Daniela (25626469800) ;Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia (22936575000) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Rohloff, Peter (55533870500) ;Rwegerera, Godfrey M. (56033523400) ;Ryan, Paul MacDaragh (56900507400) ;Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed (36100701200) ;Sabour, Siamak (16307842100) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi (56071020000) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahoo, Harihar (44462008100) ;Saif-Ur-Rahman, K.M. (55990659300) ;Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900) ;Samaei, Mehrnoosh (57225273791) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu (54407369300) ;Schlaich, Markus P. (7003349164) ;Seidu, Abdul-Aziz (57200383297) ;Šekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Kumar, Nachimuthu Senthil (57987796700) ;Seylani, Allen (57222325334) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamshad, Hina (24722237000) ;Shawon, Md Shajedur Rahman (57195803485) ;Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352) ;Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shivakumar, K.M. (57221603938) ;Shuval, Kerem (8215146800) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Ambrish (57214875932) ;Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981) ;Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198) ;Sofi-Mahmudi, Ahmad (57216854132) ;Soheili, Amin (57204123755) ;Sun, Jing (55547135859) ;Szerencsés, Viktória (57224626460) ;Szócska, Miklós (13410278600) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadbiri, Hooman (57138410000) ;Tadesse, Eyayou Girma (57221591705) ;Tariqujjaman, Md. (57198882369) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thapar, Rekha (36337431900) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Timalsina, Binod (59537205600) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tripathy, Jaya Prasad (55290251600) ;Car, Lorainne Tudor (48561867100) ;Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356) ;Uddin, Riaz (53064875600) ;Upadhyay, Era (6505961711) ;Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Verma, Madhur (57189521090) ;Villalobos-Daniel, Victor E. (36549782300) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vo, Bay (35147075900) ;Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871) ;Vukovic, Rade (37027529000) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wamai, Richard G. (23969762700) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse (57200671454) ;Xu, Xiaoyue (59560820600) ;Xu, Suowen (35303824800) ;Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055) ;Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304) ;Yaya, Sanni (55191139800) ;Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034) ;Yi, Siyan (16837551600) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670) ;Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465) ;Zamora, Nelson (58338303800) ;Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200) ;Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900) ;Zmaili, Mohammad (57188702157) ;Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885)Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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Publication Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(2022) ;Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705) ;Duncan, Bruce B. (35476478500) ;Stein, Caroline (57196039610) ;Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882) ;Abdelmasseh, Michael (57356690000) ;Abdoli, Amir (59421084100) ;Abd-Rabu, Rami (57214966967) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149) ;Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agrawaal, Krishna K. (37103625900) ;Agudelo-Botero, Marcela (58888387100) ;Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030) ;Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022) ;Ahmad, Tauseef (57214283386) ;Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300) ;Ahmadi, Sepideh (58189812000) ;Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515) ;Ahmed, Ali (57201189007) ;Salih, Yusra Ahmed (57407078800) ;Akande-Sholabi, Wuraola (57204532006) ;Akram, Tayyaba (57208951047) ;Al Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200) ;Alipour, Vahid (56436629300) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. 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(23969762700) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse (57200671454) ;Xu, Xiaoyue (59560820600) ;Xu, Suowen (35303824800) ;Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055) ;Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304) ;Yaya, Sanni (55191139800) ;Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034) ;Yi, Siyan (16837551600) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670) ;Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465) ;Zamora, Nelson (58338303800) ;Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200) ;Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900) ;Zmaili, Mohammad (57188702157) ;Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885)Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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(56841222900) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Aghamir, Seyed Mohammad Kazem (6508244234) ;Agrawal, Anurag (59030333500) ;Ahmad, Tauseef (57214283386) ;Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300) ;Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000) ;Ahmadieh, Hamid (57203677679) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie (57203189637) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akinyemiju, Tomi (57202561503) ;Akombi, Blessing (57192946271) ;Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet (57214884531) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Samiah (57208071722) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595) ;Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000) ;Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun (57202912931) ;Alhabib, Khalid F. 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(57224556036)Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(2022) ;Haakenstad, Annie (56079498000) ;Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter (57203666733) ;Knight, Megan (57218877591) ;Bintz, Corinne (57215013911) ;Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000) ;Zheng, Peng (57213707656) ;Gupta, Vin (57209148425) ;Abrigo, Michael R.M. (56018773400) ;Abushouk, Abdelrahman I. (57191479876) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000) ;Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200) ;Alipour, Vahid (56436629300) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amit, Arianna Maever L. (57211322011) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. 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(8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Ziapour, Arash (57202571078) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Lozano, Rafael (7102198442)Background: Human resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance. Methods: Through the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of data from labour force surveys and 69 country-years of census data, with detailed microdata on health-related employment. From the WHO National Health Workforce Accounts, we identified 2950 country-years of data. We mapped data from all occupational coding systems to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 (ISCO-88), allowing for standardised estimation of densities for 16 categories of health workers across the full time series. Using data from 1990 to 2019 for 196 of 204 countries and territories, covering seven Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) super-regions and 21 regions, we applied spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to model HRH densities from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and territories. We used stochastic frontier meta-regression to model the relationship between the UHC effective coverage index and densities for the four categories of health workers enumerated in SDG indicator 3.c.1 pertaining to HRH: physicians, nurses and midwives, dentistry personnel, and pharmaceutical personnel. We identified minimum workforce density thresholds required to meet a specified target of 80 out of 100 on the UHC effective coverage index, and quantified national shortages with respect to those minimum thresholds. Findings: We estimated that, in 2019, the world had 104·0 million (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–128·0) health workers, including 12·8 million (9·7–16·6) physicians, 29·8 million (23·3–37·7) nurses and midwives, 4·6 million (3·6–6·0) dentistry personnel, and 5·2 million (4·0–6·7) pharmaceutical personnel. We calculated a global physician density of 16·7 (12·6–21·6) per 10 000 population, and a nurse and midwife density of 38·6 (30·1–48·8) per 10 000 population. We found the GBD super-regions of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East had the lowest HRH densities. To reach 80 out of 100 on the UHC effective coverage index, we estimated that, per 10 000 population, at least 20·7 physicians, 70·6 nurses and midwives, 8·2 dentistry personnel, and 9·4 pharmaceutical personnel would be needed. In total, the 2019 national health workforces fell short of these minimum thresholds by 6·4 million physicians, 30·6 million nurses and midwives, 3·3 million dentistry personnel, and 2·9 million pharmaceutical personnel. Interpretation: Considerable expansion of the world's health workforce is needed to achieve high levels of UHC effective coverage. The largest shortages are in low-income settings, highlighting the need for increased financing and coordination to train, employ, and retain human resources in the health sector. Actual HRH shortages might be larger than estimated because minimum thresholds for each cadre of health workers are benchmarked on health systems that most efficiently translate human resources into UHC attainment. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(2020) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Mumford, John Everett (57221821974) ;Knight, Megan (57218877591) ;Barthelemy, Celine M (57204563787) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdollahi, Mohammad (57940559800) ;Abedi, Aidin (56673854800) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abosetugn, Akine Eshete (57041277200) ;Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400) ;Abrigo, Michael R M (56018773400) ;Abu Haimed, Abdulaziz Khalid (57218875672) ;Abushouk, Abdelrahman I (57191479876) ;Adabi, Maryam (57190491886) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M (57194329853) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adelson, Jaimie (16678347700) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O (56598104300) ;Adham, Davoud (55346682700) ;Advani, Shailesh M 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;Gitimoghaddam, Mojgan (55954313300) ;Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076) ;Glagn, Mustefa (57218881480) ;Gnedovskaya, Elena V (56806916500) ;Godinho, Myron Anthony (57188631069) ;Goharinezhad, Salime (56731088600) ;Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891) ;Goudarzian, Amir Hossein (57195581528) ;Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia (55958854600) ;Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen (57210795029) ;Guimarães, Rafael Alves (56534712800) ;Guled, Rashid Abdi (57216636102) ;Gultie, Teklemariam (56374460300) ;Guo, Yuming (55712472800) ;Gupta, Rahul (57204120071) ;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261) ;Hafiz, Abdul (57202393213) ;Haile, Teklehaimanot Gereziher (57218875310) ;Hamadeh, Randah R (57202769526) ;Hameed, Sajid (57225330442) ;Hamidi, Samer (24366336000) ;Han, Chieh (57218882107) ;Han, Hannah (57210111561) ;Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes (57201501075) ;Hanif, Asif (55360052800) ;Hankey, Graeme J (7102816661) ;Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903) ;Hasaballah, Ahmed I (56002305300) ;Hasan, Md Mehedi 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;Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408) ;Ikeda, Nayu (57203693946) ;Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800) ;Ilic, Milena D (7102981394) ;Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja (55988289600) ;Iqbal, Usman (55572166900) ;Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543) ;Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter (57203666733) ;Islam, M Mofizul (55468827000) ;Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100) ;Islami, Farhad (56926442900) ;Iso, Hiroyasu (35227393400) ;Iwu, Chinwe Juliana (56904084900) ;Jaafari, Jalil (55531397900) ;Jadidi-Niaragh, Farhad (36024064100) ;Jafarinia, Morteza (57194211648) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Jahani, Mohammad Ali (56091589300) ;Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700) ;Janjani, Hosna (56229934200) ;Javaheri, Tahereh (36102883000) ;Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (57204797176) ;Jenabi, Ensiyeh (15755615100) ;Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Ji, John S (58562329500) ;Jia, Peng (55092981100) ;John-Akinola, Yetunde O (35114976300) ;Jonas, Jost B (7202492953) ;Joukar, Farahnaz (26024213000) ;Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy (21833993700) ;Jürisson, Mikk (55547524800) ;Kabir, Zubair (57207901718) ;Kalankesh, Leila R (12796418600) ;Kalhor, Rohollah (55670548600) ;Kamath, Aruna M (57204215390) ;Kanchan, Tanuj (35237157900) ;Kapoor, Neeti (56340726700) ;Karami Matin, Behzad (56943457000) ;Karanikolos, Marina (45961091300) ;Karimi, Seyed M (57220096578) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas J (57202562224) ;Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal (6508254091) ;Kayode, Gbenga A (53463867400) ;Keiyoro, Peter Njenga (57203177260) ;Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600) ;Khammarnia, Mohammad (55804349000) ;Khan, Maseer (57215721758) ;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khatab, Khaled (27267685100) ;Khater, Amir M (57211138055) ;Khater, Mona M (57203308114) ;Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli (25825057100) ;Khayamzadeh, Maryam (57212086295) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kianipour, Neda (56564004200) ;Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375) ;Kimokoti, Ruth W (8647554600) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kisa, Adnan (6603346067) ;Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna (6508376962) ;Kivimäki, Mika (7004391239) ;Kneib, Cameron J (57210614083) ;Kocarnik, Jonathan M (56041211800) ;Kochhar, Sonali (57214107714) ;Kohler, Stefan (57188969299) ;Kopec, Jacek A (7006284395) ;Korotkova, Anna V (6602751640) ;Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich (57203303920) ;Kosen, Soewarta (57211346192) ;Kotlo, Anirudh (57034179700) ;Koul, Parvaiz A (14022262900) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krishan, Kewal (57202279708) ;Krohn, Kris J (57194138806) ;Kugbey, Nuworza (57195398167) ;Kulkarni, Vaman (56265708400) ;Kumar, G Anil (57139550500) ;Kumar, Nithin (36678889900) ;Kumar, Manasi (21739940700) ;Kurmi, Om P (23389886800) ;Kusuma, Dian (57190047530) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200) ;Lacey, Ben (7004338442) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Lalloo, Ratilal (57189334553) ;Landires, Iván (15063040000) ;Lansingh, Van Charles (57209471470) ;Larsson, Anders O (56381985300) ;Lasrado, Savita (36632480900) ;Lau, Kathryn Mei-Ming (57204566924) ;Lauriola, Paolo (7004129174) ;Lazarus, Jeffrey V (55431519100) ;Ledesma, Jorge R (57204449040) ;Lee, Paul H (57200302692) ;Lee, Shaun Wen Huey (35201185800) ;Leever, Andrew T (57204179781) ;LeGrand, Kate E (57216789066) ;Leigh, James (7202089604) ;Leonardi, Matilde (7101854166) ;Li, Shanshan (57216631901) ;Lim, Stephen S (57201800433) ;Lim, Lee-Ling (56988527400) ;Liu, Xuefeng (37050047900) ;Logroscino, Giancarlo (7004888005) ;Lopez, Alan D (7401455668) ;Lopukhov, Platon D (57191340780) ;Lotufo, Paulo A (7003331101) ;Lu, Alton (57218878815) ;Ma, Jianing (58040920000) ;Madadin, Mohammed (55912631700) ;Mahasha, Phetole Walter (28767805500) ;Mahmoudi, Morteza (24071600700) ;Majeed, Azeem (7102027801) ;Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N (57197819455) ;Maleki, Shokofeh (57200675775) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Mansouri, Borhan (54417707600) ;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600) ;Martini, Santi 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Babak (57204324006) ;Moghadaszadeh, Masoud (57200791890) ;Mohamadi, Efat (57202198397) ;Mohammad, Yousef (6603403710) ;Mohammad, Dara K (43161421200) ;Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser (57552959000) ;Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah (55602206500) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mohammed, Jemal Abdu (57211142589) ;Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Mondello, Stefania (23094881100) ;Moradi, Masoud (56506570100) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah (55179399300) ;Moraga, Paula (46761426800) ;Morgado-da-Costa, Joana (57204560697) ;Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100) ;Mosapour, Abbas (16425956900) ;Mosser, Jonathan F (56111776300) ;Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin (57203634349) ;Muriithi, Moses K (55824830500) ;Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960) ;Nabhan, Ashraf F (55880870200) ;Naderi, Mehdi (57202026927) ;Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Naghshtabrizi, Behshad (55390172500) ;Naimzada, Mukhammad David (57209744761) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Nansseu, Jobert Richie (55548984700) ;Nayak, Vinod C (24385399000) ;Nazari, Javad (57207759174) ;Ndejjo, Rawlance (56586121600) ;Negoi, Ionut (57200640014) ;Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200) ;Neupane, Subas (57215632313) ;Ngari, Kiirithio N (57218883204) ;Nguefack-Tsague, Georges (55198921200) ;Ngunjiri, Josephine W (57195296110) ;Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200) ;Nguyen, Diep Ngoc (58099646300) ;Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406) ;Nnaji, Chukwudi A (57204873792) ;Nomura, Shuhei (55632290700) ;Norheim, Ole F (7004082597) ;Noubiap, Jean Jacques (55490374000) ;Nowak, Christoph (56519458900) ;Nunez-Samudio, Virginia (15063201000) ;Otoiu, Adrian (56375694100) ;Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57217186813) ;Oghenetega, Onome Bright (57216588908) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okunga, Emmanuel Wandera (57218882538) ;Oladnabi, Morteza (54790070100) ;Olagunju, Andrew T (26029995700) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola (57218504682) ;Oluwasanu, Mojisola Morenike (56724196000) ;Omar Bali, Ahmed (57201273344) ;Omer, Muktar Omer (57216632134) ;Ong, Kanyin L (57210793447) ;Onwujekwe, Obinna E (7003992855) ;Ortega-Altamirano, Doris V V (6505938824) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Ostojic, Sergej M (8552029600) ;Otstavnov, Nikita (57202947262) ;Otstavnov, Stanislav S (57204561394) ;Øverland, Simon (23028540300) ;Owolabi, Mayowa O (57222581892) ;Padubidri, Jagadish Rao. (58295062300) ;Pakhale, Smita (57220937499) ;Palladino, Raffaele (57215205417) ;Pana, Adrian (57191837583) ;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353) ;Pangaribuan, Helena Ullyartha (57217140455) ;Pathak, Mona (57194053763) ;Patton, George C (7102184358) ;Paudel, Sagun (57222261718) ;Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza (24822763100) ;Pease, Spencer A (57218883086) ;Peden, Amy E (32367835400) ;Pennini, Alyssa (57210820174) ;Peprah, Emmanuel K (57195257834) ;Pereira, Jeevan (57218878130) ;Pigott, David M (55320335600) ;Pilgrim, Thomas (23670489400) ;Pilz, Tessa M (57218881168) ;Pinheiro, Marina (54397531500) ;Piradov, Michael A (7003731802) ;Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200) ;Pokhrel, Khem Narayan (57189445377) ;Postma, Maarten J (7006296502) ;Pourjafar, Hadi (54881252100) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Pourmirza Kalhori, Reza (57581762400) ;Pourshams, Akram (6507521541) ;Prada, Sergio I (55259772200) ;Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga (57216633039) ;Pupillo, Elisabetta (26424797500) ;Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin (36337182700) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafiee, Ata (56912119000) ;Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200) ;Raggi, Alberto (8514468700) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali (57118287000) ;Rana, Saleem Muhammad (57204884092) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rao, Sowmya J (57195423591) ;Rasella, Davide (36184697300) ;Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100) ;Rath, Goura Kishor (35444818200) ;Rathi, Priya (57216633909) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052) ;Rawal, Lal (37262106500) ;Rawassizadeh, Reza (36634807900) ;Razo, Christian (57203531684) ;Renjith, Vishnu (56468022200) ;Renzaho, Andre M N (6505786588) ;Reshmi, Bhageerathy (58925604800) ;Rezaei, Nima (57216077273) ;Riahi, Seyed Mohammad (57193205976) ;Ribeiro, Daniel Cury (23986392500) ;Rickard, Jennifer (56581573500) ;Roberts, Nicholas L S (57204562597) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Romoli, Michele (56592186200) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Rwegerera, Godfrey M (56033523400) ;Sabour, Siamak (16307842100) ;Sachdev, Perminder S (7102284091) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Sadeghi, Masoumeh (35516248000) ;Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500) ;Safari, Yahya (55700424100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Sajadi, S. Mohammad (22136195900) ;Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza (55580011800) ;Salem, Marwa R Rashad (57194137372) ;Salem, Hosni (16246117500) ;Salomon, Joshua (56745638600) ;Samadi Kafil, Hossein (16233382900) ;Samy, Abdallah M (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Santric-Milicevic, Milena M (57211144346) ;Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer (57211312277) ;Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarveazad, Arash (54882387000) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu (54407369300) ;Sattin, Davide (36088024000) ;Savic, Miloje (57204524150) ;Sawyer, Susan M (7103253172) ;Saxena, Deepak (49362057800) ;Sbarra, Alyssa N (57200546253) ;Schaeffer, Lauren E (57208868098) ;Schiavolin, Silvia (55321082600) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sha, Feng (57190308655) ;Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903) ;Shaheen, Amira A (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharara, Fablina (57218875897) ;Sharifi, Hamid (16643763200) ;Shaw, David H (8611274800) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Sheikhtaheri, Abbas (28568128800) ;Shetty, B Suresh Kumar (7102818010) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shiferaw, Wondimeneh Shibabaw (57214329180) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shin, Jae Il (57964880100) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shivakumar, K.M. (57221603938) ;Shrime, Mark G (57204703404) ;Shuval, Kerem (8215146800) ;Siabani, Soraya (25227131300) ;Sierpinski, Radoslaw (55639644600) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57214359118) ;Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200) ;Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000) ;Silva, João Pedro (57204703526) ;Simonetti, Biagio (16310420300) ;Simpson, Kyle E (57218689127) ;Singh, Jasvinder A (7404421736) ;Singh, Pushpendra (57191446986) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981) ;Smith, Emma U R (57224807295) ;Soheili, Amin (57204123755) ;Soltani, Shahin (56767763700) ;Soofi, Moslem (56373891000) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Soriano, Joan B (7101973935) ;Sorrie, Muluken Bekele (57195303874) ;Soyiri, Ireneous N (15052406400) ;Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth (57218543838) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T (57212263335) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D (57201210928) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Caroline (57196039610) ;Stokes, Mark A (7102859000) ;Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Suleria, Hafiz Ansar Rasul (55496122500) ;Sultan, Iyad (6603943693) ;Szumowski, Łukasz (35566378400) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Taddele, Biruk Wogayehu (57218876556) ;Tadesse, Degena Bahrey (57213597502) ;Taherkhani, Amir (57203973738) ;Tamiru, Animut Tagele (57218877788) ;Tanser, Frank C (6603089893) ;Tareque, Md Ismail (57219908903) ;Tarigan, Ingan Ukur (54080771800) ;Teagle, Whitney L (57218878359) ;Tediosi, Fabrizio (6603388399) ;Tefera, Yonas Getaye Getaye (56043059700) ;Tela, Freweini Gebrearegay (57207762498) ;Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse (57211312128) ;Thakur, Bhaskar (56810826900) ;Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna (57216631666) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto (56644977900) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Travillian, Ravensara (8242478000) ;Troeger, Christopher E (57195223624) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Uddin, Riaz (53064875600) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Umeokonkwo, Chukwuma David (57204448015) ;Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100) ;Upadhyay, Era (6505961711) ;Uthman, Olalekan A (23026328100) ;Vacante, Marco (23037085900) ;Valdez, Pascual R (57202115577) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Vasseghian, Yasser (56176005000) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Violante, Francesco S (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vongpradith, Avina (57216661011) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Walters, Magdalene K (58375486400) ;Wamai, Richard G (23969762700) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weintraub, Robert G (7006079405) ;Weiss, Jordan (57195982912) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Wilner, Lauren B (57193699787) ;Woldu, Gebremariam (57208146649) ;Wolfe, Charles D A (57202754705) ;Wu, Ai-Min (57203702647) ;Wulf Hanson, Sarah (57212263269) ;Xie, Yang (57218877069) ;Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100) ;Yamagishi, Kazumasa (35231751500) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaya, Sanni (55191139800) ;Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid (56017415700) ;Yearwood, Jamal A (57202282849) ;Yeshitila, Yordanos Gizachew (57214888505) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000) ;Yousefi, Zabihollah (9743306100) ;Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh (57039201000) ;Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200) ;Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258) ;Zahirian Moghadam, Telma (57201718494) ;Zaidi, Syed Saoud (57218882927) ;Zaki, Leila (57204106631) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465) ;Zandian, Hamed (57205175627) ;Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200) ;Zewdie, Kaleab Alemayehu (57204194125) ;Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200) ;Zhao, Xiu-Ju George (8360350900) ;Zhao, Yingxi (57194059646) ;Zheng, Peng (57213707656) ;Zhu, Cong (57215121592) ;Ziapour, Arash (57202571078) ;Zlavog, Bianca S (57201657821) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)Murray, Christopher J L (57224556036)Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license