Browsing by Author "Radosavljevic, Vladan (55889665400)"

There has been an abundance of different bioterrorist attack scenarios and consequently an unclear biodefense strategy so far. We present a framework for bioterrorism risk assessment that we believe would be useful for policymakers and understandable without needing to be an expert in this field. We retrieved the Medline database via PubMed (from January 1987 to January 2009) and cross-referenced and reviewed the terms biological weapons, biological attacks, bioterror, bio(defense), bio(strategy) and epidemiologic models, and risk assessment. Additionally, we conducted an internet search with the same terms and strategy. We divided bioterrorist attacks into 3 categories: strategical (large-scale), operational (middle-scale), and tactical (small-scale). A bioterrorist attack is presented as a 4-component chain model, including perpetrators, agents, means of delivery, and targets. For any of these 4 components, we propose quantitative and qualitative risk assessment parameters. Here we present a simple scoring system within our model applied to the 2001 U.S. anthrax attacks. 2009 © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

There has been an abundance of different bioterrorist attack scenarios and consequently an unclear biodefense strategy so far. We present a framework for bioterrorism risk assessment that we believe would be useful for policymakers and understandable without needing to be an expert in this field. We retrieved the Medline database via PubMed (from January 1987 to January 2009) and cross-referenced and reviewed the terms biological weapons, biological attacks, bioterror, bio(defense), bio(strategy) and epidemiologic models, and risk assessment. Additionally, we conducted an internet search with the same terms and strategy. We divided bioterrorist attacks into 3 categories: strategical (large-scale), operational (middle-scale), and tactical (small-scale). A bioterrorist attack is presented as a 4-component chain model, including perpetrators, agents, means of delivery, and targets. For any of these 4 components, we propose quantitative and qualitative risk assessment parameters. Here we present a simple scoring system within our model applied to the 2001 U.S. anthrax attacks. 2009 © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.

The objective of this study was to offer new approach for selection of persons with asymptomatic bladder cancer (BC) and highly risky persons for the BC occurrence. Also, it is a part of the BC screening protocol (study is ongoing). Study populations were 100 newly diagnosed (diagnosis maximum 1-year old) males with BC and 100 matched (by sex and age ±5 years) controls (not oncology patients from the same hospital). A hospital based, matched case-control study was done. Statistical analysis comprised of four steps: t-test, univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and scoring. The fifth step comprised of two changes, deleting one variable and addition of another variable. Six variables were statistically significant: Caucasian men over 45 years age, tobacco smoking over 40 pack-years, occupational and/or environmental exposure to the proved BC carcinogens over 20 years, macrohematuria, difficulty urinating, BC in relatives up to fourth degree of kinships, and they were used for an easy and fast selection of the individuals with high risk for BC occurrence and BC asymptomatic patients (optimal selection at the population level). The final results showed highly significant probability (p < 0.001), with area under ROC curve of 0.913, negative predictive values of 89.7% (95% CI 10.3-100%), and a specificity of 78%. Positive predictive value was 80.5% (95% CI 19.5-100%) and a sensitivity of 91%. It is possible to recruit asymptomatic BC patients (primary prevention) by using this model, as well as persons with high risk for BC occurrence (primordial prevention). This study is the first part of the BC screening protocol and the second part of the BC screening protocol study is ongoing (urine analysis). © 2023 the author(s), published by De Gruyter.

A bioterrorist attacks usually cause epidemics of panic in a targeted population. We have presented epidemiologic aspect of this phenomenon as a three-component model - host, information on an attack and social network. We have proposed a mathematical model of panic and counter-measures as the function of time in a population exposed to a bioterrorist attack. The model comprises ordinary differential equations and graphically presented combinations of the equations parameters. Clinically, we have presented a model through a sequence of psychic conditions and disorders initiated by an act of bioterrorism. This model might be helpful for an attacked community to timely and properly apply counter-measures and to minimize human mental suffering during a bioterrorist attack. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Background: In 2011, Germany was hit by one of its largest outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis and haemolytic uraemic syndrome caused by a new emerging enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O104:H4 strain. The German Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome/Enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (GHUSEC) outbreak had unusual microbiological, infectiological and epidemiological features and its origin is still only partially solved. The aim of this article is to contribute to the clarification of the origin of the epidemic. Methods: To retrospectively assess whether the GHUSEC outbreak was natural, accidental or a deliberate one, we analysed it according to three published scoring and differentiation models. Data for application of these models were obtained by literature review in the database Medline for the period 2011-13. Results: The analysis of the unusual GHUSEC outbreak shows that the present official assumption of its natural origin is questionable and pointed out to a probability that the pathogen could have also been introduced accidentally or intentionally in the food chain. Conclusion: The possibility of an accidental or deliberate epidemic should not be discarded. Further epidemiological, microbiological and forensic analyses are needed to clarify the GHUSEC outbreak. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Aims and background. Bladder cancer (BC) is the most expensive cancer to treat. Its incidence and mortality have not decreased in the last three decades. Numerous uncertainties are still surrounding the etiology of BC. There is a need for a low-cost screening test for BC that would be applicable for early detection in asymptomatic persons, a test that would preferably be noninvasive and have satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. Methods and study design. The first part of this paper addresses critical issues in the research into BC etiology, which we classified as entrances, toxicity and metabolism, amounts, and duration of exposure to carcinogens in the bladder. In the second part, based on the proven risk factors for BC, we present a simple scoring system as part of a new BC screening method. Results. The heterogeneous results of studies on BC etiology are largely due to a lack of research into the compounds (and their mutual interactions) present in the urinary bladder, carcinogens absorbed through the skin and/or inhaled, and the daily dynamics of exposure to exogenous risk factors. We have calculated a score for BC screening which is an integral component of a new, four-level system of BC prevention. Conclusions. Interactions of carcinogens and their daily dynamics deserve more attention in further clarifying BC etiology. New attempts in BC screening should be focused on urine content analyses (carcinogens, antioxidants, vitamins, minerals) and not only on hematuria and currently used biomarkers. We propose a score for BC preevaluation and recruitment for screening and a new model of BC prevention.

Aims and background. Bladder cancer (BC) is the most expensive cancer to treat. Its incidence and mortality have not decreased in the last three decades. Numerous uncertainties are still surrounding the etiology of BC. There is a need for a low-cost screening test for BC that would be applicable for early detection in asymptomatic persons, a test that would preferably be noninvasive and have satisfactory sensitivity and specificity. Methods and study design. The first part of this paper addresses critical issues in the research into BC etiology, which we classified as entrances, toxicity and metabolism, amounts, and duration of exposure to carcinogens in the bladder. In the second part, based on the proven risk factors for BC, we present a simple scoring system as part of a new BC screening method. Results. The heterogeneous results of studies on BC etiology are largely due to a lack of research into the compounds (and their mutual interactions) present in the urinary bladder, carcinogens absorbed through the skin and/or inhaled, and the daily dynamics of exposure to exogenous risk factors. We have calculated a score for BC screening which is an integral component of a new, four-level system of BC prevention. Conclusions. Interactions of carcinogens and their daily dynamics deserve more attention in further clarifying BC etiology. New attempts in BC screening should be focused on urine content analyses (carcinogens, antioxidants, vitamins, minerals) and not only on hematuria and currently used biomarkers. We propose a score for BC preevaluation and recruitment for screening and a new model of BC prevention.