Browsing by Author "Mumford, John Everett (57221821974)"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(2018)
Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400)
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Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858)
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Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900)
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Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022)
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Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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Abdela, Jemal (57200613000)
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Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900)
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Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816)
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Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100)
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Abebe, Molla (57211131124)
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Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719)
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Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573)
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Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598)
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Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002)
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Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877)
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Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637)
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Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700)
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Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600)
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Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381)
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Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853)
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Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800)
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Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)
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Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000)
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Adib, Mina G. (57204560513)
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Admasie, Amha (56609274200)
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Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455)
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Agarwal, Gina (57220151944)
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Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362)
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Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700)
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Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733)
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Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700)
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Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000)
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Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100)
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Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768)
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Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980)
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Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258)
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Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200)
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Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800)
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Akseer, Nadia (57207801968)
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Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400)
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Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720)
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Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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Alam, Khurshid (57203681299)
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Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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Alebel, Animut (57195961302)
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Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764)
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Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700)
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Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700)
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Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313)
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Alla, Francois (6701580827)
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Allebeck, Peter (7005187575)
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Alonso, Jordi (7403482329)
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Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923)
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Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009)
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Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300)
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Amini, Erfan (35073393800)
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Ammar, Walid (57208159281)
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Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700)
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Anber, Nahla Hamed (57202351369)
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Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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Androudi, Sofia (6603286512)
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Animut, Megbaru Debalkie (57204558749)
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Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282)
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Ansari, Hossein (56919376000)
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Ansha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453)
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Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526)
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Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
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Arnlov, Johan (6602512227)
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Arora, Amit (36676951800)
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Arora, Monika (8700408200)
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Artaman, Al (57217223811)
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Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800)
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Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay (57203306449)
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Ataro, Zerihun (57204563849)
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Atique, Suleman (56505419100)
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Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900)
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Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A. (57209842037)
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Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700)
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Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631)
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Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100)
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Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000)
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Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032)
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Bacha, Umar (57200173721)
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Badali, Hamid (15123728900)
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Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615)
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Ballesteros, Katherine E. (57207968050)
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Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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Banerjee, Kajori (57193448932)
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Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518)
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Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975)
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Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100)
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Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514)
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Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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Barquera, Simon (6601928375)
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Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675)
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Bassat, Quique (23024176000)
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Basu, Sanjay (9335409500)
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Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336)
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Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw (57192710748)
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Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad (57205912040)
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Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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Beghi, Ettore (7004809655)
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Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000)
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Bejot, Yannick (14038743100)
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Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941)
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Belachew, Abate Bekele (57201657313)
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Belay, Ezra (56372891800)
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Belay, Yihalem Abebe (57202972558)
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Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450)
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Bello, Aminu K. (12759638700)
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Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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Berman, Adam E. (7201959854)
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Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150)
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Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200)
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Bertolacci, Gregory J. (57204558417)
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Beuran, Mircea (25229806700)
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Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763)
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Bhalla, Ashish (57202555305)
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Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200)
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Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep (55643126300)
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Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300)
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Biadgo, Belete (55672090500)
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Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812)
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Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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Bikbov, Boris (57219957158)
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Bilano, Ver (57189663783)
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Bililign, Nigus (57216264444)
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Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat (55408904500)
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Bisanzio, Donal (57196394991)
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Biswas, Tuhin (59824959000)
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Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500)
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Borschmann, Rohan (35091024300)
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Bosetti, Cristina (7005452936)
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Bozorgmehr, Kayvan (34767823500)
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Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651)
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Brant, Luisa C. (40160889400)
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Brayne, Carol (57210386759)
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Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405)
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Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. (6603260895)
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Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
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Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334)
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Britton, Gabrielle (7004997832)
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Brugha, Traolach (35370057100)
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Busse, Reinhard (35589070800)
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Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691)
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Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar (6505846919)
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Cano, Jorge (7201865982)
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Car, Mate (57113377700)
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Cardenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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Carreras, Giulia (57221176357)
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Carrero, Juan J. (16834646800)
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Carter, Austin (57201756395)
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Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
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Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline (57197814657)
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Castle, Chris D. (57196079840)
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Castro, Clara (54787333700)
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Castro, Franz (57204567353)
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Catala-Lopez, Ferran (57202553733)
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Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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Chaiah, Yazan (57204565480)
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Chang, Jung-Chen (57202568248)
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Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086)
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Chaturvedi, Pankaj (35547314900)
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Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia (59846886500)
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Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel (57217262222)
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Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe (56761895800)
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Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488)
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Chowdhury, Rajiv (57216138475)
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Christensen, Hanne (57202099623)
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Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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Chung, Sheng-Chia (56008137900)
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Cicuttini, Flavia M. (7005887430)
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Ciobanu, Liliana G. (57201603453)
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Cirillo, Massimo (35247478400)
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Cohen, Aaron J. (7404780942)
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Cooper, Leslie Trumbull (15754277900)
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Cortesi, Paolo Angelo (57200306512)
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Cortinovis, Monica (57207893885)
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Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705)
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Cowie, Benjamin C. (57202566182)
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Criqui, Michael H. (57212369327)
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Cromwell, Elizabeth A. (15727546000)
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Crowe, Christopher Stephen (55976347800)
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Crump, John A. (57202595111)
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Cunningham, Matthew (57204558787)
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Daba, Alemneh Kabeta (57203300408)
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Dadi, Abel Fekadu (57031690900)
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Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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Dang, Anh Kim (57195728465)
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Dargan, Paul I. (57212154356)
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Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200)
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Das, Siddharth K. (55362129800)
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Gupta, Rajat Das (57215122060)
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Neves, Jose Das (57208073193)
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Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye (57204268402)
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Dash, Aditya Prasad (57205497428)
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Davis, Adrian C. (7404296836)
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Davis Weaver, Nicole (57203300193)
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Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil (57202555163)
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Davletov, Kairat (6602803024)
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De La Hoz, Fernando Pio (23134262800)
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De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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Degefa, Meaza Girma (57204559873)
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Degenhardt, Louisa (7004040033)
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Degfie, Tizta T. (57194129130)
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Deiparine, Selina (57205252200)
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Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam (57202214514)
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Demtsu, Balem Betsu (57204566544)
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Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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Dervenis, Nikolaos (35368148900)
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Des Jarlais, Don C. (56990451200)
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Dessie, Getenet Ayalew (57202055866)
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Dey, Subhojit (25958052600)
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Dharmaratne, Samath D. (57216324802)
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Dicker, Daniel (57196026676)
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Dinberu, Mesfin Tadese (57201669580)
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Ding, Eric L. (54413849800)
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Dirac, M. Ashworth (57193092988)
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Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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Dokova, Klara (57201523771)
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Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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Donnelly, Christl A. (35468127900)
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Dorsey, E. Ray (23102496300)
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Doshi, Pratik P. (57202595536)
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Douwes-Schultz, Dirk (57196081398)
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Doyle, Kerrie E. (55693710800)
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Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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Dubljanin, Eleonora (55957442600)
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Duken, Eyasu Ejeta (57204560558)
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Duncan, Bruce B. (35476478500)
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Duraes, Andre R. (30867558600)
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Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
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Ebrahimpour, Soheil (57204558416)
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Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200)
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Edvardsson, David (35229255500)
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Eggen, Anne Elise (7007019553)
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El Bcheraoui, Charbel (25027689700)
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El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000)
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Elkout, Hajer (36102315300)
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Ellingsen, Christian Lycke (7801360950)
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Endres, Matthias (7005056946)
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Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852)
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Er, Benjamin (57204568328)
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Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676)
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Eshrati, Babak (16030619200)
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Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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Esmaeili, Reza (57193352042)
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Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100)
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Fakhar, Mahdi (24168542800)
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Fakhim, Hamed (56532027000)
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Faramarzi, Mahbobeh (8928307700)
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Fareed, Mohammad (24491815600)
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Farhadi, Farzaneh (55869726400)
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Farinha, Carla Sofia Esá (57190279273)
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Faro, Andre (36770969600)
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Farvid, Maryam S. (57216534761)
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Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
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Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein (36458335600)
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Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957)
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Feigl, Andrea B. (57202461042)
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Fentahun, Netsanet (56394665400)
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Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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Fernandes, Joao C. (35274726800)
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Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907)
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Feyissa, Garumma Tolu (55504728900)
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Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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Finegold, Samuel (57195558156)
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Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
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Foigt, Nataliya A. (57216998893)
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Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
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Fornari, Carla (15022250200)
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Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110)
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Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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Fuller, John E. (57204565664)
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Fullman, Nancy (57211064970)
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Furst, Thomas (57208431345)
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Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000)
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Futran, Neal D. (35554564000)
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Gallus, Silvano (7005387365)
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Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168)
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Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A. (55930749500)
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Gardner, William M. (57204566870)
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Gebre, Abadi Kahsu (59426751000)
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Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917)
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Gebremedhin, Amanuel Tesfay (57202566187)
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Gebremichael, Bereket (57191254167)
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Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo (57204566728)
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Gelano, Tilayie Feto (57200628899)
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Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500)
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Genova-Maleras, Ricard (15070563900)
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Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea (57204563310)
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Gething, Peter W. (57193559189)
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Gezae, Kebede Embaye (57204561611)
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Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul (57204797800)
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Ghadimi, Reza (57202290802)
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Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil (15724975400)
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Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam (55371171100)
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Ghimire, Mamata (57190385188)
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Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104)
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Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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Gillum, Richard F. (7103181331)
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Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed (57192378390)
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Giroud, Maurice (7203027541)
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Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076)
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Goenka, Shifalika (57217111080)
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Goldberg, Ellen M. (57191842703)
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Goli, Srinivas (39761832500)
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Gomez-Dantes, Hector (57202555692)
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Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762)
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Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
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Gorman, Taren M. (57204559340)
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Goto, Atsushi (57193212299)
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Goulart, Alessandra C. (57201181348)
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Gnedovskaya, Elena V. (56806916500)
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Grada, Ayman (55797741000)
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Grosso, Giuseppe (57196998256)
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Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008)
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Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena (7102920800)
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Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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Gupta, Prakash C. (58767181900)
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Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
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Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300)
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Gupta, Tanush (57219956402)
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Gutierrez, Reyna Alma (57200298415)
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Gyawali, Bishal (56237046200)
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Haagsma, Juanita A. (57202571125)
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Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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Hagos, Tekleberhan B. (57204236893)
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Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa (57202206322)
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Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arya (57226201352)
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Hamadeh, Randah R. (57202769526)
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Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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Handal, Alexis J. (57208977398)
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Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661)
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Harb, Hilda L. (57221443122)
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Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai (57202524069)
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Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903)
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Hasan, Mehedi (57908537100)
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Hassankhani, Hadi (26436359700)
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Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728)
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Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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He, Yihua (57204561423)
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Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar (35867288600)
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Hegazy, Mohamed I. (35110336200)
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Heibati, Behzad (55341086000)
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Heidari, Mohsen (56814474300)
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Hendrie, Delia (6602071966)
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Henok, Andualem (57196451824)
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Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616)
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Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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Heydarpour, Fatemeh (57192381690)
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Heydarpour, Pouria (57202568884)
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Heydarpour, Sousan (53871251300)
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Hibstu, Desalegn Tsegaw (57200538678)
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Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421)
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Hole, Michael K. (57159282400)
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Homaie Rad, Enayatollah (57196329821)
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Hoogar, Praveen (57204240256)
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Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
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Hosseini, Seyed Mostafa (59438018800)
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Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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Hostiuc, Mihaela (51763789200)
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Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800)
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Hotez, Peter J. (7004958298)
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Hoy, Damian G. (57216593652)
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Hsiao, Thomas (57204559888)
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Hu, Guoqing (57218106596)
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Huang, John J. (56135699200)
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Husseini, Abdullatif (6603689690)
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Hussen, Mohammedaman Mama (56125214500)
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Hutfless, Susan (35331919500)
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Idrisov, Bulat (57208773503)
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Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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Iqbal, Usman (55572166900)
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Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter (57203666733)
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Islam, Nazrul (57217501333)
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Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
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Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100)
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Jahangiry, Leila (56281924800)
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Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718)
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Jain, Sudhir Kumar (55461277300)
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Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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Jalu, Moti Tolera (57200541197)
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James, Spencer L. (57202557998)
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Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886)
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Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (57204797176)
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Jeemon, Panniyammakal (57216324831)
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Jenkins, Kathy J. (7103360798)
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GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2018)
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Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2018)
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Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689)
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Millear, Anoushka I. (57204879537)
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Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
;
Mini, G.K. (12800865800)
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Mirarefin, Mojde (57222113397)
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Mirica, Andreea (57188983765)
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Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888)
;
Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen (57202808713)
;
Mitchell, Philip B. (35354747000)
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Mitiku, Habtamu (49864023500)
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Moazen, Babak (57204324006)
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Mohajer, Bahram (57039225300)
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Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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Mohammadi, Moslem (56274033300)
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Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700)
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Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa (57203524570)
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Mohammed, Mohammed A. (57196575014)
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Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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Mohebi, Farnam (55633844600)
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Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920)
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Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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Montanez, Julio Cesar (57191621609)
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Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500)
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Moradi, Ghobad (48161434000)
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Moradi, Mahmoudreza (57189107392)
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Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300)
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Moradinazar, Mehdi (59750499200)
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Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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Morawska, Lidia (7004773965)
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Velásquez, Ilais Moreno (56499291900)
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Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana (57204560697)
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Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100)
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Moschos, Marilita M. (7004456074)
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Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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Mruts, Kalayu Brhane (57221822877)
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Muche, Achenef Asmamaw (57195576373)
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Muchie, Kindie Fentahun (57194458469)
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Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500)
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Muhammed, Oumer Sada (57202727745)
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Mukhopadhyay, Satinath (36342847700)
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Muller, Kate (57196075658)
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Mumford, John Everett (57221821974)
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Murthy, G.V.S. (7101778322)
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Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466)
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Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960)
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Nabhan, Ashraf F. (55880870200)
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Nagata, Chie (50061824800)
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Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623)
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Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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Naheed, Aliya (57202560989)
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Nahvijou, Azin (18837247000)
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Naik, Gurudatta (56020694000)
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Najafi, Farid (21743304900)
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Nam, Hae Sung (7102066169)
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Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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Nansseu, Jobert Richie (55548984700)
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Neamati, Nahid (57204566952)
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Negoi, Ionut (57200640014)
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Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200)
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Neupane, Subas (57215632313)
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Newton, Charles Richard James (35465836500)
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Ngunjiri, Josephine W. (57195296110)
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Nguyen, Anh Quynh (57204557413)
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Nguyen, Grant (57191591002)
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Nguyen, Ha Thu (57468278900)
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Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)
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Nguyen, Huong Thanh (37093238600)
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Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800)
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Nguyen, Minh (58203329200)
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Nguyen, Nam Ba (57204561572)
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Nguyen, Son Hoang (59662830400)
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Nichols, Emma (57205756163)
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Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470)
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Nixon, Molly R. (57204562047)
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Nomura, Shuhei (55632290700)
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Noroozi, Mehdi (57035125300)
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Norrving, Bo (12792377500)
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Noubiap, Jean Jacques (55490374000)
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Nouri, Hamid Reza (58754802100)
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Shiadeh, Malihe Nourollahpour (56960536000)
;
Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza (8866311900)
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Nsoesie, Elaine O. (57211006304)
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Nyasulu, Peter S. (36700333500)
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Odell, Christopher M. (57204283884)
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Ofori-Asenso, Richard (57209300265)
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Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136)
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Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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Oladimeji, Olanrewaju (57216495380)
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Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700)
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Olagunju, Tinuke O. (57203076824)
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Olivares, Pedro R. (7003510190)
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Olsen, Helen Elizabeth (57203080494)
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Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola (57218504682)
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Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860)
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Ong, Kanyin L. (57210793447)
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Ong, Sok King (36614524300)
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Oren, Eyal (36815569400)
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Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399)
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Ota, Erika (57202554474)
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Otstavnov, Stanislav S. (57204561394)
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Overland, Simon (23028540300)
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Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo (57222581892)
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Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244)
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Pacella, Rosana (57194839077)
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Pakhare, Abhijit P. (54383993100)
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Pakpour, Amir H. (56181056500)
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Pana, Adrian (57191837583)
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Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)
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Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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Park, James (59870205900)
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Parry, Charles D.H. (7102561312)
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Parsian, Hadi (55991107900)
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Pasdar, Yahya (54941249200)
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Patel, Shanti (57072227700)
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Patil, Snehal T. (57212263349)
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Patle, Ajay (57203309187)
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Patton, George C. (7102184358)
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Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao (56499299400)
;
Paudel, Deepak (57207871851)
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Paulson, Katherine R. (57203437789)
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Pearce, Neil (56491440700)
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Pereira, Alexandre (7402230187)
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Pereira, David M. (57200690024)
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Perico, Norberto (56481931200)
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Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721)
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Petzold, Max (7003628893)
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Pham, Hai Quang (57217078995)
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Phillips, Michael R. (57202563610)
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Pigott, David M. (55320335600)
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Pillay, Julian David (57197803061)
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Piradov, Michael A. (7003731802)
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Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200)
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Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900)
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Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer (41662092800)
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Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200)
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Popova, Svetlana (56848085800)
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Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502)
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Pourshams, Akram (6507521541)
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Poustchi, Hossein (8622806500)
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Prabhakaran, Dorairaj (7004283783)
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Prakash, Swayam (57212263375)
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Prakash, V. (55722781800)
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Prasad, Narayan (23028765700)
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Purcell, Caroline A. (56203575500)
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Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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Quistberg, D. Alex (6507023057)
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Radfar, Amir (57194428768)
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Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200)
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Rahim, Fakher (23052247800)
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Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900)
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Rahimi, Zohreh (57217262194)
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Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900)
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Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446)
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Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300)
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Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378)
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Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600)
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Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800)
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Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900)
;
Rajati, Fatemeh (54780507400)
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Ranjan, Prabhat (57200595370)
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Rao, Puja C. (57191835613)
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Rasella, Davide (36184697300)
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Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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Reddy, K. Srinath (35417788900)
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Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
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Reitsma, Marissa Bettay (57208766315)
;
Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600)
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Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588)
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Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071)
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Rezaei, Satar (55791003000)
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Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300)
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Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. (57204577960)
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Roberts, Nicholas L.S. (57204562597)
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Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969)
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Roever, Leonardo (56641632800)
;
Ronfani, Luca (6602565620)
;
Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800)
;
Rostami, Ali (59144808300)
;
Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400)
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Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162)
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Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589)
;
Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091)
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Sadat, Nafis (57219687343)
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Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500)
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Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar (56071020000)
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Safari, Hosein (57204236925)
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Safari, Yahya (55700424100)
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Safari-Faramani, Roya (57210821203)
;
Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024)
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Safi, Sare (57219477293)
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Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100)
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Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600)
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Sajadi, Haniye Sadat (57190919153)
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Salam, Nasir (23992664500)
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Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625)
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Salamati, Payman (14045860600)
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Saleem, Zikria (56179814800)
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Salimi, Yahya (54421017000)
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Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900)
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Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777)
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Salz, Inbal (57199623777)
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Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300)
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Sanabria, Juan (7006262917)
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Sanchez-Nino, Maria Dolores (57202569015)
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Santomauro, Damian Francesco (56912450700)
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Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911)
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Santos, Joao Vasco (57226214352)
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Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346)
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Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi (57204561719)
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Sardana, Mayank (56992882500)
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Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200)
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Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430)
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Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316)
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Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100)
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Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500)
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Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004)
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Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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Saxena, Sonia (57203151746)
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Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741)
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Schmidt, Maria Ines (7404398885)
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Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772)
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Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth (57216814352)
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Schwebel, David C. (6603681532)
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Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600)
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Scott, James G. (57218307442)
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Sekerija, Mario (30268005400)
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Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826)
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Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893)
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Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500)
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Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900)
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Shahbazi, Mehdi (58427375600)
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Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956)
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Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415)
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Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980)
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Sharafi, Heidar (57322506400)
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Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056)
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Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200)
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Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000)
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Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457)
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Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600)
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She, Jun (57209122131)
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Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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Shi, Peilin (57203064901)
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Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900)
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Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay (57205232012)
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Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400)
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Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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Shokoohinia, Yalda (35783486700)
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Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000)
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Shoman, Haitham (57208324664)
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Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404)
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Si, Si (56706979500)
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Siabani, Soraya (25227131300)
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Sibai, Abla Mehio (7005466998)
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Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539)
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Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778)
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Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200)
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Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000)
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Silva, Joao Pedro (7403023631)
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Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103)
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Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata (57204560563)
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Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736)
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Singh, Virendra (57191848598)
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Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609)
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Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500)
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Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482)
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Sliwa, Karen (57207223988)
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Smith, David L. (55574206203)
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Smith, Mari (57195484737)
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Filho, Adauto Martins Soares (49961178500)
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Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080)
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Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221)
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Soofi, Moslem (56373891000)
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Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748)
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Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400)
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Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000)
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Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
;
Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031)
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Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928)
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Starodubov, Vladimir I. (6701820838)
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Stein, Dan J. (55769747595)
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Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084)
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Steiner, Timothy J. (16837503200)
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Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000)
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Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390)
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Subart, Michelle L. (57194140438)
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Sudaryanto, Agus (57305372500)
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Sufiyan, Mu'Awiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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Sulo, Gerhard (16242476100)
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Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557)
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Sur, Patrick John (57218360398)
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Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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Sylaja, P.N. (12787344300)
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Sylte, Dillon O. (57211183601)
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Szoeke, Cassandra E.I. (6505920990)
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Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400)
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Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926)
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Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756)
;
Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108)
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Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239)
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Taveira, Nuno (6602731390)
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Taylor, Hugh R. (55550572900)
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Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037)
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Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey (57204566273)
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Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146)
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Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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Temsah, Omar (57204559820)
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Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258)
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Tessema, Belay (20735503600)
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Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu (57193667629)
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Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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Theis, Andrew (57196076787)
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Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish (54407369300)
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Thomas, Nihal (7401830494)
;
Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730)
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To, Quyen G. (55827789100)
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Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534)
;
Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
;
Torre, Anna E. (57196074351)
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Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel (16242320900)
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Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300)
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Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
;
Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568)
;
Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536)
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Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624)
;
Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442)
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Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984)
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Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100)
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Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475)
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Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789)
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Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680)
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Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075)
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Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600)
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Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300)
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Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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Varavikova, Elena (7801408611)
;
Varughese, Santosh (22942817500)
;
Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
;
Villafaina, Santos (57195804127)
;
Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
;
Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162)
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Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
;
Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900)
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Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100)
;
Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385)
;
Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
;
Wang, Yafeng (57208674780)
;
Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
;
Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
;
Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405)
;
Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600)
;
Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300)
;
Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107)
;
Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895)
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West, T. Eoin (57756844000)
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Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
;
Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)
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Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)
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Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700)
;
Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000)
;
Wilner, Lauren B. (57193699787)
;
Wilson, Shadrach (57204557765)
;
Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)
;
Wiyeh, Alison B. (57196222987)
;
Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509)
;
Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705)
;
Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171)
;
Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800)
;
Xavier, Denis (55403963100)
;
Xu, Gelin (57203583113)
;
Yadgir, Simon (57192837280)
;
Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100)
;
Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800)
;
Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895)
;
Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
;
Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000)
;
Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144)
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Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144)
;
Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312)
;
Yip, Paul (7102503720)
;
Yisma, Engida (55556060700)
;
Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
;
Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
;
Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800)
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Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
;
Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585)
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Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
;
Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)
;
Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
;
Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
;
Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
;
Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
;
Zar, Heather J. (7006236599)
;
Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
;
Zipkin, Ben (57200737130)
;
Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200)
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Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
;
Zucker, Inbar (47461733200)
;
Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)
;
Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2018)
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Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2018)
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Leigh, James (7202089604)
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Leinsalu, Mall (6603447541)
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Leshargie, Cheru Tesema (57195295462)
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Leung, Janni (57214397752)
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Lewycka, Sonia (57212496031)
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Li, Shanshan (57216631901)
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Li, Xiaohong (36627308700)
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Li, Yichong (57218426673)
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Liang, Juan (57198351058)
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Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300)
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Liben, Misgan Legesse (57188568119)
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Lim, Lee-Ling (56988527400)
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Limenih, Miteku Andualem (57194062676)
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Liu, Shiwei (57209574351)
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Liu, Yang (57202561981)
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Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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Logroscino, Giancarlo (7004888005)
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Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(2020)
Lozano, Rafael (7102198442)
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Fullman, Nancy (57211064970)
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Mumford, John Everett (57221821974)
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Knight, Megan (57218877591)
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Barthelemy, Celine M (57204563787)
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Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
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Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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Deribew, Amare (25625914400)
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Ehrenkranz, Rebecca (57194229299)
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El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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Endries, Aman (57216324852)
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Feyissa, Tesfaye R (57222562476)
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Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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Gai, Ruoyan (15074108800)
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Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L (57200187168)
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Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917)
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Gesesew, Hailay (56412148300)
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Getahun, Belete (59533724700)
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Gona, Philimon (57219703762)
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Goodridge, Amador (55801980200)
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Gugnani, Harish (7005567008)
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Haghparast-Bidgoli, Hassan (36647510000)
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Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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Hilawe, Esayas (55842959800)
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Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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Jacobsen, Kathryn H (26029163100)
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Jonas, Jost B (7202492953)
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Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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Sano Kedir, Muktar (57204794002)
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Kemmer, Laura (57205017265)
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Khader, Yousef (55654192600)
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Khan, Ejaz (57218791274)
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Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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Khoja, Abdullah T (57194229795)
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Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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Koul, Parvaiz (14022262900)
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Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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Krohn, Kristopher J (57194138806)
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Anil Kumar, G. (57139550500)
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Kutz, Michael (57195617315)
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Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan (57195948985)
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Majdzadeh, Reza (9246620000)
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Manyazewal, Tsegahun (55414403100)
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Memish, Ziad (7005059350)
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Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane (57222113213)
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Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136)
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Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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Oren, Eyal (36815569400)
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Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron (57195835977)
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Pereira, David (57200690024)
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Plass, Dietrich (57217142114)
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Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300)
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Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900)
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Rao, Puja C (57191835613)
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Ray, Sarah E (57196078769)
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Reiner, Robert (57203229088)
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Reinig, Nickolas (57208577401)
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Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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Salomon, Joshua A (56745638600)
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Sandar, Logan (57202561352)
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Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127)
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Shey, Muki (10138820000)
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Markos Shifti, Desalegn (57204795705)
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Shore, Hirbo (57200684844)
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Singh, Jasvinder (7404421736)
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Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T (57212263335)
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Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757)
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Swartz, Scott J (57196350745)
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Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861)
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Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920)
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Tegegne, Balewgizie Sileshi (57216997287)
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Tessema, Belay (20735503600)
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Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
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Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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Uthman, Olalekan A (23026328100)
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Vlassov, Vasiliy (57211633239)
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Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717)
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Weldegebreal, Solomon (57203681037)
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Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100)
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Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800)
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Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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Hay, Simon I (7101875313)
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Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)
Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (−4·1% [−5·0 to −3·4]) than in incidence (−1·6% [−1·9 to −1·2]) and prevalence (−0·7% [−1·0 to −0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license