Browsing by Author "Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544)"

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    Publication
    Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
    (2018)
    Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400)
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    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858)
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    Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdela, Jemal (57200613000)
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    Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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    Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900)
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    Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816)
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    Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100)
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    Abebe, Molla (57211131124)
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    Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719)
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    Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573)
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    Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598)
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    Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002)
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    Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877)
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    Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637)
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    Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700)
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    Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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    Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600)
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    Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381)
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    Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853)
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    Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)
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    Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000)
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    Adib, Mina G. (57204560513)
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    Admasie, Amha (56609274200)
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    Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455)
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    Agarwal, Gina (57220151944)
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    Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362)
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    Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700)
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    Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733)
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    Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700)
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    Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000)
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    Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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    Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100)
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    Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768)
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    Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980)
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    Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258)
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    Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200)
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    Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800)
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    Akseer, Nadia (57207801968)
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    Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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    Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400)
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    Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720)
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    Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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    Alam, Khurshid (57203681299)
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    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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    Alebel, Animut (57195961302)
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    Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764)
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    Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700)
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    Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700)
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    Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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    Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313)
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    Alla, Francois (6701580827)
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    Allebeck, Peter (7005187575)
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    Alonso, Jordi (7403482329)
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    Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009)
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    Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300)
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    Amini, Erfan (35073393800)
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    Ammar, Walid (57208159281)
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    Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700)
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    Anber, Nahla Hamed (57202351369)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Androudi, Sofia (6603286512)
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    Animut, Megbaru Debalkie (57204558749)
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    Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282)
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    Ansari, Hossein (56919376000)
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    Ansha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453)
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    Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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    Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526)
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    Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
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    Arnlov, Johan (6602512227)
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    Arora, Amit (36676951800)
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    Arora, Monika (8700408200)
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    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
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    Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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    Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800)
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    Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay (57203306449)
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    Ataro, Zerihun (57204563849)
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    Atique, Suleman (56505419100)
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    Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900)
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    Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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    Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A. (57209842037)
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    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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    Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700)
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    Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631)
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    Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100)
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    Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000)
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    Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032)
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    Bacha, Umar (57200173721)
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    Badali, Hamid (15123728900)
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    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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    Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615)
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    Ballesteros, Katherine E. (57207968050)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Banerjee, Kajori (57193448932)
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    Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518)
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    Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975)
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    Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100)
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    Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514)
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    Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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    Barquera, Simon (6601928375)
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    Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675)
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    Bassat, Quique (23024176000)
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    Basu, Sanjay (9335409500)
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    Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336)
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    Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw (57192710748)
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    Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad (57205912040)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Beghi, Ettore (7004809655)
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    Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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    Bejot, Yannick (14038743100)
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    Belay, Ezra (56372891800)
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    Belay, Yihalem Abebe (57202972558)
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    Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450)
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    Bello, Aminu K. (12759638700)
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    Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Berman, Adam E. (7201959854)
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    Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150)
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    Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200)
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    Bertolacci, Gregory J. (57204558417)
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    Beuran, Mircea (25229806700)
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    Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763)
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    Bhalla, Ashish (57202555305)
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    Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200)
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    Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep (55643126300)
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    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300)
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    Biadgo, Belete (55672090500)
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    Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bikbov, Boris (57219957158)
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    Bilano, Ver (57189663783)
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    Bililign, Nigus (57216264444)
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    Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat (55408904500)
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    Bisanzio, Donal (57196394991)
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    Biswas, Tuhin (59824959000)
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    Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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    Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500)
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    Borschmann, Rohan (35091024300)
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    Bosetti, Cristina (7005452936)
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    Bozorgmehr, Kayvan (34767823500)
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    Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651)
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    Brant, Luisa C. (40160889400)
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    Brayne, Carol (57210386759)
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    Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405)
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    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
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    Britton, Gabrielle (7004997832)
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    Brugha, Traolach (35370057100)
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    Busse, Reinhard (35589070800)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691)
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    Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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    Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar (6505846919)
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    Cano, Jorge (7201865982)
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    Car, Mate (57113377700)
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    Cardenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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    Carreras, Giulia (57221176357)
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    Carrero, Juan J. (16834646800)
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    Carter, Austin (57201756395)
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    Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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    Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
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    Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline (57197814657)
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    Castle, Chris D. (57196079840)
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    Castro, Clara (54787333700)
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    Castro, Franz (57204567353)
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    Catala-Lopez, Ferran (57202553733)
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    Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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    Chaiah, Yazan (57204565480)
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    Chang, Jung-Chen (57202568248)
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    Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086)
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    Chaturvedi, Pankaj (35547314900)
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    Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia (59846886500)
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    Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel (57217262222)
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    Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe (56761895800)
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    Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488)
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    Chowdhury, Rajiv (57216138475)
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    Christensen, Hanne (57202099623)
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    Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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    Chung, Sheng-Chia (56008137900)
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    Cicuttini, Flavia M. (7005887430)
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    Ciobanu, Liliana G. (57201603453)
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    Cirillo, Massimo (35247478400)
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    Cohen, Aaron J. (7404780942)
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    Cooper, Leslie Trumbull (15754277900)
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    Cortesi, Paolo Angelo (57200306512)
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    Cortinovis, Monica (57207893885)
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    Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705)
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    Cowie, Benjamin C. (57202566182)
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    Criqui, Michael H. (57212369327)
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    Cromwell, Elizabeth A. (15727546000)
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    Crowe, Christopher Stephen (55976347800)
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    Crump, John A. (57202595111)
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    Cunningham, Matthew (57204558787)
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    Daba, Alemneh Kabeta (57203300408)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dang, Anh Kim (57195728465)
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    Das, Siddharth K. (55362129800)
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    Gupta, Rajat Das (57215122060)
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    Neves, Jose Das (57208073193)
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    Davis, Adrian C. (7404296836)
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    Davis Weaver, Nicole (57203300193)
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    Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil (57202555163)
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    Davletov, Kairat (6602803024)
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    De La Hoz, Fernando Pio (23134262800)
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    De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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    Degefa, Meaza Girma (57204559873)
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    Degenhardt, Louisa (7004040033)
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    Degfie, Tizta T. (57194129130)
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    Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam (57202214514)
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    Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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    Dervenis, Nikolaos (35368148900)
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    Des Jarlais, Don C. (56990451200)
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    Dessie, Getenet Ayalew (57202055866)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath D. (57216324802)
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    Dicker, Daniel (57196026676)
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    Ding, Eric L. (54413849800)
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    Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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    Dokova, Klara (57201523771)
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    Donnelly, Christl A. (35468127900)
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    Dorsey, E. Ray (23102496300)
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    Doshi, Pratik P. (57202595536)
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    Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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    Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
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    Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200)
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    Edvardsson, David (35229255500)
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    Eggen, Anne Elise (7007019553)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000)
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    Elkout, Hajer (36102315300)
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    Ellingsen, Christian Lycke (7801360950)
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    Endres, Matthias (7005056946)
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    Er, Benjamin (57204568328)
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    Fakhar, Mahdi (24168542800)
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    Fakhim, Hamed (56532027000)
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    Fareed, Mohammad (24491815600)
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    Farhadi, Farzaneh (55869726400)
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    Faro, Andre (36770969600)
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    Farvid, Maryam S. (57216534761)
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    Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
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    Fentahun, Netsanet (56394665400)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907)
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    Finegold, Samuel (57195558156)
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    Foigt, Nataliya A. (57216998893)
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    Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
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    Fornari, Carla (15022250200)
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    Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Fuller, John E. (57204565664)
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    Fullman, Nancy (57211064970)
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    Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000)
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    Futran, Neal D. (35554564000)
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    Gallus, Silvano (7005387365)
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    Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168)
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    Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A. (55930749500)
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    Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917)
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    Grada, Ayman (55797741000)
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    Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008)
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    Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena (7102920800)
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    Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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    Gupta, Prakash C. (58767181900)
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    Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
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    Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300)
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    Gupta, Tanush (57219956402)
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    Gutierrez, Reyna Alma (57200298415)
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    Gyawali, Bishal (56237046200)
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    Haagsma, Juanita A. (57202571125)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Hagos, Tekleberhan B. (57204236893)
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    Hailegiyorgis, Tewodros Tesfa (57202206322)
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    Hamadeh, Randah R. (57202769526)
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    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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    Handal, Alexis J. (57208977398)
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    Harb, Hilda L. (57221443122)
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    Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903)
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    Hassankhani, Hadi (26436359700)
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    Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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    Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728)
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    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    He, Yihua (57204561423)
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    Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Akbar (35867288600)
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    Hegazy, Mohamed I. (35110336200)
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    Heibati, Behzad (55341086000)
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    Heidari, Mohsen (56814474300)
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    Hendrie, Delia (6602071966)
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    Henok, Andualem (57196451824)
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    GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
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    Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
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    Truong, Nu Thi (57204178907)
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    Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442)
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    Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100)
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    Tuzcu, E. Murat (7005951350)
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    Tymeson, Hayley D. (57194139009)
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    Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680)
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    Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075)
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    Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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    Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600)
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    Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Van Donkelaar, Aaron (15926418500)
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    Varavikova, Elena (7801408611)
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    Varughese, Santosh (22942817500)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (23096834700)
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    Venkateswaran, Vidhya (59829999400)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
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    Villafaina, Santos (57195804127)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
    Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Global mortality from dementia: Application of a newmethod and results from the global burden of disease study 2019
    (2021)
    Nichols, Emma (57205756163)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
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    Vidale, Simone (14018677100)
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    Wu, Chenkai (57188764904)
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    Yeshitila, Yordanos Gizachew (57214888505)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    Introduction: Dementia is currently one of the leading causes of mortality globally, and mortality due to dementia will likely increase in the future along with corresponding increases in population growth and population aging. However, large inconsistencies in coding practices in vital registration systems over time and between countries complicate the estimation of global dementia mortality. Methods: We meta-analyzed the excess risk of death in those with dementia and multiplied these estimates by the proportion of dementia deaths occurring in those with severe, end-stage disease to calculate the total number of deaths that could be attributed to dementia. Results: We estimated that there were 1.62 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.41-4.21) deaths globally due to dementia in 2019. More dementia deaths occurred in women (1.06 million [0.27-2.71]) than men (0.56 million [0.14-1.51]), largely but not entirely due to the higher life expectancy in women (age-standardized female-tomale ratio 1.19 [1.10-1.26]). Due to population aging, there was a large increase in allage mortality rates from dementia between 1990 and 2019 (100.1% [89.1-117.5]). In 2019, deaths due to dementia ranked seventh globally in all ages and fourth among individuals 70 and older compared to deaths from other diseases estimated in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Discussion: Mortality due to dementia represents a substantial global burden, and is expected to continue to grow into the future as an older, aging population expands globally. © 2021 The Authors.
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    Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
    (2015)
    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571)
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    Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret (57195461619)
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    Wolock, Timothy M. (57210784314)
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    Xu, Gelin (14049536200)
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    Yang, Yang C. (39763666500)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Younis, Mustafa (8549393000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726)
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    Yun Jin, Kim (57190155872)
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    Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922)
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    Zamakhshary, Mohammed Fouad (22837435200)
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    Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012)
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    Zhang, Yong (55891238500)
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    Zhao, Yong (59798995400)
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    Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300)
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    Zhu, Jun (56215097100)
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    Zhu, Shankuan (7404391225)
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    Zonies, David (6507066392)
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    Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159)
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    Zunt, Joseph R. (6602746216)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
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    Alcalá-Cerra, G. (35769097100)
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    Hu, H. (55740738900)
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    Karam, N. (57221993192)
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    Sabin, N. (57202568454)
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    Temesgen, A.M. (56541894900)
    Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
    (2014)
    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
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    Ortblad, Katrina F. (57190076688)
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    Guinovart, Caterina (23024511900)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544)
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    Wolock, Timothy M. (57210784314)
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    Roberts, D. Allen (57188657365)
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    Dansereau, Emily A. (57203833128)
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    Graetz, Nicholas (56276346000)
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    Brown, Jonathan C. (57212760159)
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    Wang, Haidong (16507828100)
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    Duber, Herbert C. (55522646900)
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    Cowie, Benjamin C. (57202566182)
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    Venketasubramanian, N. (56804702100)
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    Waller, Stephen (57201445180)
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    Wallin, Mitchell T. (7005704608)
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    Wang, Linhong (57303731300)
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    Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239)
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    Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571)
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    Williams, Thomas Neil (35430527200)
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    Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret (57195461619)
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    Wong, John Q. (56491997300)
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    Xu, Gelin (14049536200)
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    Yang, Yang C. (39763666500)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yentur, Gokalp Kadri (57211728019)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Younis, Mustafa (8549393000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726)
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    Jin, Kim Yun (57211086375)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    Zhao, Yong (59798995400)
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    Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300)
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    Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200)
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    Zhu, Jun (56215097100)
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    Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
    (2014)
    Kassebaum, Nicholas J. (55522621100)
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    Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia (57192900191)
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    Coggeshall, Megan S. (56132969600)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421)
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    Idrisov, Bulat T. (57208773503)
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    Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900)
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    Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423)
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    Jiang, Guohong (56984997300)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Juel, Knud (7005077250)
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    Kabagambe, Edmond Kato (6602704484)
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    Kan, Haidong (7101602991)
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    Karam, Nadim E. (57221993192)
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    Karch, André (55917217700)
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    Karema, Corine Kakizi (57202557522)
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    Kaul, Anil (16156995700)
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    Kawakami, Norito (35377339000)
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    Kazanjan, Konstantin (57193091626)
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    Kazi, Dhruv S. (57216814161)
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    Kemp, Andrew H. (57218313462)
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    Kereselidze, Maia (55659152900)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan (59831217100)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmed (57218791274)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Knibbs, Luke (16313525200)
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    Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655)
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    Kulkarni, Chanda (59869378300)
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    Kulkarni, Veena S. (57200084922)
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    Kumar, Ravi B. (59600303400)
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    Kwan, Gene (57194535368)
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    Lam, Hilton (35484312600)
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    Lansingh, Van C. (57194598546)
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    Larsson, Anders (36818888800)
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    Lee, Jong-Tae (57196083400)
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    Leigh, James (7202089604)
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    Leinsalu, Mall (6603447541)
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    Leung, Ricky (56276497100)
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    Li, Xiaohong (36627308700)
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    Li, Yichong (57218426673)
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    Li, Yongmei (56147667800)
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    Liang, Juan (57198351058)
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    Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544)
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    Lin, Hsien-Ho (39061859200)
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    Lipshultz, Steven E. (7006950713)
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    Liu, Shiwei (57209574351)
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    Liu, Yang (57202561981)
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    Lloyd, Belinda K. (55313086800)
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    London, Stephanie J. (56988756100)
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    Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101)
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    Ma, Jixiang (57219562158)
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    Ma, Stefan (7403723389)
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    Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro (56133788500)
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    Mainoo, Nana Kwaku (56133064200)
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    Majdan, Marek (36147855100)
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    Mapoma, Christopher Chabila (57208956832)
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    Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102)
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    Marzan, Melvin Barrientos (57200737144)
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    Mason-Jones, Amanda J. (7201563263)
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    Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864)
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    Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola (56013641600)
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    Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Mills, Edward J. (7102584704)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Mola, Glen Liddell (57221824056)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    De La Cruz Monis, Jonathan (56132934000)
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    Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez (57199371040)
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    Moore, Ami R. (57216303682)
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    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300)
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    Mori, Rintaro (57072757600)
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    Mueller, Ulrich O. (8512347500)
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    Mukaigawara, Mitsuru (57202400916)
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    Naheed, Aliya (57202560989)
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    Naidoo, Kovin S. (35564549000)
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    Nand, Devina (55575672100)
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    Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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    Nash, Denis (57203073814)
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    Nejjari, Chakib (6602168304)
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    Nelson, Robert G. (7404561092)
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    Neupane, Sudan Prasad (55270561200)
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    Newton, Charles R. (35465836500)
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    Ng, Marie (36155754200)
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    Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J. (7007123042)
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    Nisar, Muhammad Imran (57191774461)
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    Nolte, Sandra (24073274400)
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    Norheim, Ole F. (7004082597)
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    Nyakarahuka, Luke (57216109498)
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    Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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    Ohkubo, Takayoshi (7201618716)
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    Olusanya, Bolajoko O. (57218504682)
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    Omer, Saad B. (57216065685)
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    Opio, John Nelson (57200124403)
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    Orisakwe, Orish Ebere (7003998930)
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    Pandian, Jeyaraj D. (6701618847)
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    Papachristou, Christina (7005498635)
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    Park, Jae-Hyun (57211913586)
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    Paternina Caicedo, Angel J. (35769665400)
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    Patten, Scott B. (57201492915)
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    Paul, Vinod K. (57203044947)
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    Pavlin, Boris Igor (57204224285)
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    Pearce, Neil (56491440700)
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    Pereira, David M. (57200690024)
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    Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721)
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    Petzold, Max (7003628893)
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    Poenaru, Dan (7004383820)
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    Polanczyk, Guilherme V. (6507552141)
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    Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200)
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    Pope, Dan (7102019067)
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    Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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    Qato, Dima (57200144916)
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    Quistberg, D. Alex (6507023057)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900)
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    Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446)
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    Ur Rahman, Sajjad (15835524800)
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    Raju, Murugesan (57212263299)
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    Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092)
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    Refaat, Amany (57216641565)
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    Ronfani, Luca (6602565620)
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    Roy, Nobhojit (7101831881)
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    Pimienta, Tania Georgina Sánchez (56133180600)
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    Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Sampson, Uchechukwu (57208140556)
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    Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Sayinzoga, Felix (55508183800)
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    Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772)
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    Schumacher, Austin (57209276410)
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    Schwebel, David C. (6603681532)
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    Seedat, Soraya (7003445887)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Servan-Mori, Edson E. (57202594826)
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    Shakh-Nazarova, Marina (56133525500)
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    Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352)
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    Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900)
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    Shin, Hwashin Hyun (56132914500)
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    Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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    Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778)
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    Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256)
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    Silva, Andrea P. (59594831400)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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    Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482)
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    Sliwa, Karen (57207223988)
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    Soshnikov, Sergey S. (57195195606)
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    Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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    Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127)
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    Sturua, Lela (37662283900)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700)
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    Talongwa, Roberto Tchio (57195568335)
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    Tan, Feng (56429971500)
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    Teixeira, Carolina Maria (56133286100)
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    Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah (57216997115)
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    Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258)
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    Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. (57194437700)
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    Tirschwell, David L. (7003788101)
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    Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568)
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    Tran, Bach X. (57209107515)
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    Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis (6701721894)
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    Uchendu, Uche S. (56328470200)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584)
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    Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789)
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    Uzun, Selen Begüm (57200327315)
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    Vallely, Andrew J. (21744114400)
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    Van Gool, Coen H. (57217153933)
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    Vasankari, Tommi J. (57189653936)
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    Vavilala, Monica S. (7004076648)
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    Venketasubramanian, N. (56804702100)
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    Villalpando, Salvador (7005159171)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Waller, Stephen (57201445180)
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    Wang, Haidong (16507828100)
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    Wang, Linhong (59088832100)
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    Wang, Xiao Rong (59881699400)
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    Wang, Yanping (57215440165)
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    Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239)
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    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
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    Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571)
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    Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret (57195461619)
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    Wong, John Q. (56491997300)
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    Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera (57211398351)
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    Xu, Gelin (14049536200)
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    Yang, Yang C. (39763666500)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yentur, Gokalp Kadri (57211728019)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726)
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    Jin, Kim Yun (57211086375)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    Zhao, Yong (59798995400)
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    Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300)
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    Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200)
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    Zhu, Jun (56215097100)
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    Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
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    Lozano, Rafael (7102198442)
    Background The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. Methods We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine diff erent causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. Findings 292 982 (95% UI 261 017-327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483-407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0.3% (-1.1 to 0.6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2.7% (-3.9 to -1.5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0.4% (0.2-0.6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956.8 (685.1-1262.8) in South Sudan to 2.4 (1.6-3.6) in Iceland. Interpretation Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.