Browsing by Author "Keren, Andre (7005620132)"
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Publication Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300) ;Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000) ;Adib, Mina G. (57204560513) ;Admasie, Amha (56609274200) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700) ;Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alebel, Animut (57195961302) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, Francois (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Alonso, Jordi (7403482329) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. 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(57193559189) ;Gezae, Kebede Embaye (57204561611) ;Ghadami, Mohammad Rasoul (57204797800) ;Ghadimi, Reza (57202290802) ;Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil (15724975400) ;Ghasemi-Kasman, Maryam (55371171100) ;Ghimire, Mamata (57190385188) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660) ;Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900) ;Gillum, Richard F. (7103181331) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed (57192378390) ;Giroud, Maurice (7203027541) ;Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076) ;Goenka, Shifalika (57217111080) ;Goldberg, Ellen M. (57191842703) ;Goli, Srinivas (39761832500) ;Gomez-Dantes, Hector (57202555692) ;Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762) ;Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891) ;Gorman, Taren M. (57204559340) ;Goto, Atsushi (57193212299) ;Goulart, Alessandra C. (57201181348) ;Gnedovskaya, Elena V. (56806916500) ;Grada, Ayman (55797741000) ;Grosso, Giuseppe (57196998256) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena (7102920800) ;Guo, Yuming (55712472800) ;Gupta, Prakash C. 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(7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))(2019) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Gakidou, Emmanuela (57202567277) ;Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Takahashi, Ken (55741242600) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037) ;Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey (57204566273) ;Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146) ;Temesgen, Habtamu (57205011874) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Temsah, Omar (57204559820) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Tessema, Belay (20735503600) ;Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu (57193667629) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Theis, Andrew (57196076787) ;Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish (54407369300) ;Thomas, Hannah J. (55925904000) ;Thomas, Matthew Lloyd (57191835351) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Thurston, George D. (7102270013) ;Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730) ;Tillmann, Taavi (57190211142) ;To, Quyen G. (55827789100) ;Tobollik, Myriam (56549045300) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Torre, Anna E. (57196074351) ;Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel (16242320900) ;Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536) ;Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565) ;Truong, Nu Thi (57204178907) ;Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Tuzcu, E. Murat (7005951350) ;Tymeson, Hayley D. (57194139009) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Van Donkelaar, Aaron (15926418500) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (23096834700) ;Venkateswaran, Vidhya (59829999400) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127)Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1725–1774)(S0140673616315756)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31575-6))(2017) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A (24342648300) ;Coates, Matthew M (57211076754) ;Coggeshall, Megan (56132969600) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Diallo, Khassoum (6701577865) ;Franca, Elisabeth Barboza (16031258100) ;Fraser, Maya (57202561859) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gething, Peter W (57193559189) ;Hay, Simon I (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kita, Maaya (57208149285) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Larson, Heidi J (57202559142) ;Liang, Juan (57198351058) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lim, Stephen S (7404081544) ;Lind, Margaret (57189271761) ;Lopez, Alan D (7401455668) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Mensah, George A (57196028147) 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(23029507000) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zhang, Hao (59062050200) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)GBD 2015 Child Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1725–74—In this Article, Mohsen Naghavi, Michael J Kutz, Chantal Huynh, Samer Hamidi, Addisu Shunu Beyene, and Stephen S Lim should have been listed as authors. The affiliation details for Simon I Hay have been updated. The funding statement for Simon I Hay has been added. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Jan 5, 2017. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Genetic counselling and testing in cardiomyopathies: A position statement of the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Myocardial and Pericardial Diseases(2010) ;Charron, Philippe (57203044890) ;Arad, Michael (7004305446) ;Arbustini, Eloisa (7006508645) ;Basso, Cristina (7004539938) ;Bilinska, Zofia (7004460321) ;Elliott, Perry (7202244843) ;Helio, Tiina (6701447654) ;Keren, Andre (7005620132) ;McKenna, William J. (56672467900) ;Monserrat, Lorenzo (6701492113) ;Pankuweit, Sabine (7003360984) ;Perrot, Andreas (7006708265) ;Rapezzi, Claudio (7005883289) ;Ristic, Arsen (7003835406) ;Seggewiss, Hubert (7006693727) ;Van Langen, Irene (6603729142)Tavazzi, Luigi (7102746954)Advances in molecular genetics present new opportunities and challenges for cardiologists who manage patients and families with cardiomyopathies. The aims of this position statement of the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Myocardial and Pericardial Diseases are to review the general issues related to genetic counselling, family screening and genetic testing in families with a cardiomyopathy, and to provide key messages and suggestions for clinicians involved in their management. © 2010 The Author. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2015) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Davis, Adrian (7404296836) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse (56133944200) ;Abdalla, Safa (7005715928) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdel Aziz, Muna I. (56013017300) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abraham, Biju (57202568691) ;Abraham, Jerry P. (57203894879) ;Abuabara, Katrina E. (6507310339) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adelekan, Ademola (57216109261) ;Ademi, Zanfina (32867460300) ;Adofo, Koranteng (57216996837) ;Adou, Arséne Kouablan (56531895000) ;Adsuar, José C. 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(56541894900)Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. 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(57196084094) ;Maddison, Ralph (8552158500) ;Madotto, Fabiana (16029150500) ;Magdy Abd El Razek, Hassan (57195948985) ;Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed (57201191366) ;Maghavani, Dhaval P. (57204558721) ;Majdan, Marek (36147855100) ;Majdzadeh, Reza (9246620000) ;Majeed, Azeem (7102027801) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Malik, Manzoor Ahmad (57210016163) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Mamun, Abdullah A. (55666602500) ;Manamo, Wondimu Ayele (57191836792) ;Manda, Ana-Laura (57204567674) ;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600) ;Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni (7006357517) ;Mapoma, Chabila Christopher (57208956832) ;Marami, Dadi (57200546490) ;Maravilla, Joemer C. (57008289000) ;Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102) ;Marina, Shakhnazarova (57204569175) ;Martinez-Raga, Jose (57202861191) ;Martins, Sheila C O. (36084814200) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807) ;März, Winfried (57220877383) ;Marzan, Melvin B. 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(57202554188) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane (57222113213) ;Miangotar, Yode (57197736129) ;Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900) ;Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mini, G.K. (12800865800) ;Mirica, Andreea (57188983765) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen (57202808713) ;Moazen, Babak (57204324006) ;Moges, Nurilign Abebe (57211220810) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadi, Moslem (56274033300) ;Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700) ;Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, Maryam (56497918100) ;Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa (57203524570) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mohammed, Mohammed A. (57196575014) ;Mohan, Viswanathan (57216603627) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Moradi, Ghobad (48161434000) ;Moradi, Mahmoudreza (57189107392) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Moradinazar, Mehdi (59750499200) ;Moraga, Paula (46761426800) ;Morawska, Lidia (7004773965) ;Moreno Velásquez, Ilais (57209275633) ;Morgado-Da-costa, Joana (57204560697) ;Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100) ;Mosapour, Abbas (16425956900) ;Moschos, Marilita M. (7004456074) ;Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700) ;Muche, Achenef Asmamaw (57195576373) ;Muchie, Kindie Fentahun (57194458469) ;Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500) ;Mukhopadhyay, Satinath (36342847700) ;Mullany, Erin C. (57208989650) ;Muller, Kate (57196075658) ;Murhekar, Manoj (35551594800) ;Murphy, Tasha B. (56013128800) ;Murthy, G.V.S. (7101778322) ;Murthy, Srinivas (36247670800) ;Musa, Jonah (15022919200) ;Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466) ;Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960) ;Muthupandian, Saravanan (54585668500) ;Nachega, Jean B. (6701544088) ;Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Nahvijou, Azin (18837247000) ;Naik, Gurudatta (56020694000) ;Nair, Sanjeev (7402726229) ;Najafi, Farid (21743304900) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Nansseu, Jobert Richie (55548984700) ;Nascimento, Bruno Ramos (14424406800) ;Nawaz, Haseeb (57211774152) ;Ncama, Busisiwe P. (22980862000) ;Neamati, Nahid (57204566952) ;Negoi, Ionut (57200640014) ;Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200) ;Neupane, Subas (57215632313) ;Newton, Charles Richard James (35465836500) ;Ngalesoni, Frida N. (57219463339) ;Ngunjiri, Josephine W. (57195296110) ;Nguyen, Ha Thu (57468278900) ;Nguyen, Huong Thanh (37093238600) ;Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800) ;Nguyen, Michele (57204097034) ;Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200) ;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470) ;Nirayo, Yirga Legesse (57201651103) ;Nisar, Muhammad Imran (57191774461) ;Nixon, Molly R. (57204562047) ;Nolutshungu, Nomonde (57204567895) ;Nomura, Shuhei (55632290700) ;Norheim, Ole F. (7004082597) ;Noroozi, Mehdi (57035125300) ;Norrving, Bo (12792377500) ;Noubiap, Jean Jacques (55490374000) ;Nouri, Hamid Reza (58754802100) ;Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Malihe (56960536000) ;Nowroozi, Mohammad Reza (8866311900) ;Nsoesie, Elaine O. (57211006304) ;Nyasulu, Peter S. (36700333500) ;Ofori-Asenso, Richard (57209300265) ;Ogah, Okechukwu Samuel (8871875400) ;Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Oladimeji, Olanrewaju (57216495380) ;Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700) ;Olagunju, Tinuke O. (57203076824) ;Olivares, Pedro R. (7003510190) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola (57218504682) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Ong, Sok King (36614524300) ;Opio, John Nelson (57200124403) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Ortiz, Justin R. (57201758478) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Ota, Erika (57202554474) ;Otstavnov, Stanislav S. (57204561394) ;Øverland, Simon (57209275636) ;Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo (57222581892) ;Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel (57200949556) ;Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244) ;Pacella, Rosana (57194839077) ;Pakhale, Smita (57220937499) ;Pakhare, Abhijit P. (54383993100) ;Pana, Adrian (57191837583) ;Panda, Basant Kumar (57196077672) ;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353) ;Pandey, Achyut Raj (57189593134) ;Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai (6701618847) ;Parisi, Andrea (57203642960) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Parry, Charles D H. (7102561312) ;Parsian, Hadi (55991107900) ;Patel, Shanti (57072227700) ;Patle, Ajay (57203309187) ;Patten, Scott B. (57201492915) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Pearce, Neil (56491440700) ;Peprah, Emmanuel K. (57195257834) ;Pereira, Alexandre (7402230187) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perez, Krystle M. (56973645200) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pervaiz, Aslam (57202521714) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Petri, William A. (7102315371) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael R. (57202563610) ;Pigott, David M. (55320335600) ;Pillay, Julian David (57197803061) ;Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Pond, Constance Dimity (7006633763) ;Popova, Svetlana (56848085800) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Pourshams, Akram (6507521541) ;Poustchi, Hossein (8622806500) ;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj (7004283783) ;Prakash, V. (55722781800) ;Prakash, Swayam (57212263375) ;Prasad, Narayan (23028765700) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Quistberg, D Alex (6507023057) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Ur Rahman, Sajjad (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Rajati, Fatemeh (54780507400) ;Rajsic, Sasa (57196448260) ;Raju, Sree Bhushan (8983666100) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Ranjan, Prabhat (57200595370) ;Ranta, Anna (26768039500) ;Rasella, Davide (36184697300) ;Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Ray, Sarah E. (57196078769) ;Razo-GarcÃa, Christian (57209275722) ;Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago (35099389600) ;Rehm, Jürgen (7102718648) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reinig, Nickolas (57208577401) ;Reis, Cesar (56611469700) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M N. (6505786588) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Rezaei, Satar (55791003000) ;Rezaeian, Shahab (55214334100) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300) ;Riahi, Seyed Mohammad (57193205976) ;Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. (57204577960) ;Riojas, Horacio (55602731800) ;Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus (57208577330) ;Roba, Kedir Teji (57203667432) ;Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Roshchin, Denis O. (57194175724) ;Rostami, Ali (59144808300) ;Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Saadat, Soheil (16310355800) ;Sabde, Yogesh Damodar (54793337800) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500) ;Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar (56071020000) ;Safari, Hosein (57204236925) ;Safari, Yahya (55700424100) ;Safari-Faramani, Roya (57210821203) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Sajadi, Haniye Sadat (57190919153) ;Salahshoor, Mohamadreza (55580011800) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Saldanha, Raphael de Freitas (57193063393) ;Salimi, Yahya (54421017000) ;Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900) ;Salz, Inbal (57199623777) ;Sambala, Evanson Zondani (36718133800) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores (57202569015) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santos, João Vasco (57226214352) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi (57204561719) ;Sardana, Mayank (56992882500) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Savic, Miloje (57204524150) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Sayyah, Mehdi (10540414200) ;Scaria, Vinod (57192120979) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schelonka, Kathryn (57195377099) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J C. (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (57209275668) ;Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Serván-Mori, Edson (57209275629) ;Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900) ;Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shakir, Raad A. (55374140100) ;Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415) ;Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Sharafi, Heidar (57322506400) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000) ;Sharma, Meenakshi (58730797800) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Sheth, Kevin N. (57212863894) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shifa, Girma Temam (57211793093) ;Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay (57205232012) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Shukla, Sharvari Rahul (55760856000)Si, Si (56706979500)Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(7004824524) ;Thurston, George D. (7102270013) ;Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730) ;To, Quyen G. (55827789100) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Torre, Anna E. (57196074351) ;Tortajada-Girbes, Miguel (16242320900) ;Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536) ;Tripathi, Suryakant (57225821627) ;Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565) ;Truong, Nu Thi (57204178907) ;Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Murat Tuzcu, E. (7005951350) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzun, Selen Begum (57200327315) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Vaidya, Gaurang (55551507300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wagner, Gregory R. (57219005948) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wallin, Mitchell Taylor (57201573668) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Wassie, Molla Mesele (56499356400) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition(2015) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414) ;Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu (59158236200) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abraham, Jerry P. (57203894879) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. (57216675148) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Ademi, Zanfina (32867460300) ;Adou, Arsène K. (56531895000) ;Adsuar, José C. (21738958900) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agardh, Emilie E. (57202373873) ;Alam, Sayed Saidul (56809534300) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57211114684) ;Albittar, Mohammed I. (56276571900) ;Alegretti, Miguel A. (56276408300) ;Alemu, Zewdie A. 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(57207895368) ;Endres, Matthias (7005056946) ;Ermakov, Sergey P. (7006796196) ;Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676) ;Eshrati, Babak (16030619200) ;Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100) ;Estep, Kara (57216550964) ;Faraon, Emerito Jose A. (57195414019) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fay, Derek F. (57216717128) ;Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957) ;Felson, David T. (7101771217) ;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520) ;Fernandes, Jefferson G. (57220736619) ;Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Foigt, Nataliya (57216998893) ;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (57202562738) ;Fowkes, F Gerry R. (55395407300) ;Paleo, Urbano Fra. (15053114000) ;Franklin, Richard C. (7201428429) ;Fürst, Thomas (57208431345) ;Gabbe, Belinda (6603439472) ;Gaffikin, Lynne (6701866671) ;Gankpé, Fortuné G. (57201341525) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gessner, Bradford D. 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(7101875313) ;Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200) ;Heredia-Pi, Ileana B. (36941085200) ;Heuton, Kyle R. (57202568555) ;Heydarpour, Pouria (57189359029) ;Higashi, Hideki (57219387526) ;Hijar, Martha (57216555124) ;Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421) ;Hoffman, Howard J. (7201677665) ;Hosgood, H Dean (56353204400) ;Hossain, Mazeda (57203734792) ;Hotez, Peter J. (7004958298) ;Hoy, Damian G. (57216593652) ;Hsairi, Mohamed (57209033943) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Huang, Cheng (57216683566) ;Huang, John J. (56135699200) ;Husseini, Abdullatif (57221681109) ;Huynh, Chantal (57202556112) ;Iannarone, Marissa L. (57218422772) ;Iburg, Kim M. (57216814160) ;Innos, Kaire (57217314902) ;Inoue, Manami (57202880842) ;Islami, Farhad (56926442900) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jarvis, Deborah L. (7102857763) ;Jassal, Simerjot K. (57190118903) ;Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900) ;Jeemon, Panniyammakal (57216324831) ;Jensen, Paul N. 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(7401455668)Vos, Theo (57223885848)Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition - in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden - is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adedeji, Isaac A. 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(57207920084)Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. 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(55481130700)Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2014) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700) ;Ortblad, Katrina F. (57190076688) ;Guinovart, Caterina (23024511900) ;Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544) ;Wolock, Timothy M. (57210784314) ;Roberts, D. Allen (57188657365) ;Dansereau, Emily A. (57203833128) ;Graetz, Nicholas (56276346000) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Brown, Jonathan C. (57212760159) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Duber, Herbert C. (55522646900) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Heuton, Kyle R. (57202568555) ;Foreman, Kyle (57209064414) ;Phillips, David E. (57202564185) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567) ;Phillips, Bryan K. (56132903100) ;Johnson, Elizabeth K. (56276328900) ;Coggeshall, Megan S. 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(39763666500) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yentur, Gokalp Kadri (57211728019) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Jin, Kim Yun (57211086375) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Vos, Theo (57223885848)Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adamu, Abdu Abdullahi (57202024381) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji (56598104300) ;Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar (7403190321) ;Aggarwal, Rakesh (7203024985) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar (57199100665) ;Ahmadieh, Hamid (57203677679) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Aiyar, Sneha (57216813717) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Noore (57202437697) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57192936248) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, François (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Allen, Christine (57200170678) ;Al-Maskari, Fatma (25824744400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255) ;Alsowaidi, Shirina (26867516400) ;Altirkawi, Khalid A. 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(35933756700) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;James, Spencer L. (57202557998) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Acharya, Pawan (56435749900) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. 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(6701721894) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Tuzcu, E. Murat (7005951350) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Unutzer, Jurgen (7007005108) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Waller, Stephen G. (57201445180) ;Wang, Yafeng (57208674780) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Widecka, Justyna (15047205800) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wilner, Lauren B. (57193699787) ;Wilson, Shadrach (57204557765) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wiyeh, Alison B. (57196222987) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Wu, Shouling (57744442000) ;Wu, Yun-Chun (56095674500) ;Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896) ;Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100) ;Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144) ;Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yisma, Engida (55556060700) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamani, Mohammad (59866744200) ;Zare, Zohreh (35436578700)Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508) ;Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800) ;Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O. (13609887500) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji (56598104300) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Aggarwal, Rakesh (7203024985) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar (57199100665) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibthiel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Aiyar, Sneha (57216813717) ;Akanda, Ali Shafqat (35290419100) ;Akinyemiju, Tomi F. (57202561503) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400) ;Al Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005) ;Alabed, Samer (37049870800) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Noore (57202437697) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57192936248) ;Aldridge, Robert William (57209842885) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Alhabib, Samia (57194933167) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Aljunid, Syed M. (6504304159) ;Alkaabi, Juma M. 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(57200187168) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917) ;Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos (57908382800) ;Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday (57195329489) ;Gelaye, Amha Admasie (56609274200) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gemechu, Bikila Lencha (57201195568) ;Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw (55998328100) ;Genova-Maleras, Ricard (15070563900) ;Gesesew, Hailay Abrha (56412148300) ;Gething, Peter W. (57193559189) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660) ;Gillum, Richard F. (7103181331) ;Giref, Ababi Zergaw (57219994468) ;Girma, Bedilu Weji (57199404611) ;Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076) ;Goenka, Shifalika (57217111080) ;Gomez, Beatriz (56835173600) ;Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762) ;Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891) ;Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho (57201181348) ;Graetz, Nicholas (56276346000) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Gupta, Prakash C. (58767181900) ;Gupta, Rahul (57204120071) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Gupta, Tanush (57219956402) ;Gupta, Vipin (57199940653) ;Haagsma, Juanita A. (57202571125) ;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261) ;Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan (36647510000) ;Hakuzimana, Alex (40761558700) ;Halasa, Yara A. (57202569911) ;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526) ;Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome (57203666810) ;Hamidi, Samer (24366336000) ;Hammami, Mouhanad (57216961083) ;Hancock, Jamie (57202975481) ;Handal, Alexis J. (57208977398) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Hao, Yuantao (57202554333) ;Harb, Hilda L. (57221443122) ;Hareri, Habtamu Abera (57195292447) ;Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai (57202524069) ;Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903) ;Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh (35085056400) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;He, Fei (59031207400) ;Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz (36941085200) ;Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100) ;Hilawe, Esayas Haregot (55842959800) ;Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800) ;Hotez, Peter J. (7004958298) ;Hoy, Damian G. (57216593652) ;Hsairi, Mohamed (57209033943) ;Htet, Aung Soe (57202555179) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Huang, Hsiang (57202278530) ;Huang, John J. (56135699200) ;Iburg, Kim Moesgaard (57216814160) ;Igumbor, Ehimario Uche (26537691100) ;Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile (57202148423) ;Inoue, Manami (57202880842) ;Irenso, Asnake Ararsa (57195329443) ;Irvine, Caleb M.S. (57203666733) ;Islam, Nazrul (57217501333) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jaenisch, Thomas (35739002500) ;Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700) ;Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886) ;Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (23389151200) ;Jeemon, Panniyammakal (57216324831) ;Jensen, Paul N. 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(35564549000) ;Nanda, Lipika (57225004633) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Nascimento, Bruno Ramos (14424406800) ;Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan (55804491100) ;Negoi, Ionut (57200640014) ;Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Nguyen, Quyen Le (57223642100) ;Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200) ;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470) ;Nisar, Muhammad Imran (57191774461) ;Nomura, Marika (57191838057) ;Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200) ;Norheim, Ole F. (7004082597) ;Norrving, Bo (12792377500) ;Noubiap, Jean Jacques N. (55490374000) ;Nyakarahuka, Luke (57216109498) ;Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf (57209300189) ;O'Donnell, Martin J. (57210591242) ;Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Oladimeji, Olanrewaju (57216495380) ;Olagunju, Andrew Toyin (26029995700) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola (57218504682) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron (57195835977) ;Ota, Erika (57202554474) ;Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892) ;Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel (57200949556) ;Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244) ;Pacella, Rosana E. (57194839077) ;Pakhale, Smita (57220937499) ;Pana, Adrian (57191837583) ;Panda, Basant Kumar (57196077672) ;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Parsaeian, Mahboubeh (57196467994) ;Patel, Tejas (57207871841) ;Patten, Scott B. (57201492915) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perez-Padilla, Rogelio (57200171315) ;Perez-Ruiz, Fernando (57190090281) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pervaiz, Aslam (57202521714) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Peterson, Carrie Beth (57202568667) ;Petri, William Arthur (7102315371) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Piel, Frédéric B. (56866735900) ;Pigott, David M. (55320335600) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Popova, Svetlana (56848085800) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Poulton, Richie G. (7006256743) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Prasad, Narayan (23028765700) ;Purwar, Manorama (6602127625) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rabiee, Rynaz H.S. (57205452058) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Rajsic, Sasa (57196448260) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rao, Paturi Vishnupriya (7404661983) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Ray, Sarah E. (57196078769) ;Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago (35099389600) ;Rehm, Jürgen (7102718648) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N.N. (6505786588) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Rezaei, Satar (55791003000) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300) ;Ribeiro, Antonio L. (7201676223) ;Rokni, Mohammad Bagher (36119103200) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Saadat, Soheil (16310355800) ;Sabde, Yogesh Damodar (54793337800) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Sadat, Nafis (57219687343) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahathevan, Ramesh (35332739200) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Salama, Joseph (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores (57202569015) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo (57204744430) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Saylan, Mete I. (56253241700) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schutte, Aletta E. (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Seid, Abdulbasit Musa (57190280174) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson E. (57202594826) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shahraz, Saeid (57215142060) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamsipour, Mansour (57197846052) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Shen, Jiabin (57199271940) ;Shetty, Balakrishna P. (57194580871) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Sindi, Shireen (57209045912) ;Singh, Abhishek (59639211800) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Prashant Kumar (57208090732) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Sobaih, Badr H.A. (57202564080) ;Sobngwi, Eugene (6701427993) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Stöckl, Heidi (57200232597) ;Stokes, Mark Andrew (7102859000) ;Strong, Mark (12783473200) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader (57195295816) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick J. (57218360398) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E.I. (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tanne, David (7006302238) ;Tarajia, Musharaf (56041372500) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekelab, Tesfalidet (56721378300) ;Tekle, Dejen Yemane (57191848698) ;Temam Shifa, Girma (57217000284) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Tesema, Cheru Leshargie (57195295462) ;Tesssema, Belay (57195294962) ;Theis, Andrew (57196076787) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Thompson, Alex H. (57196083297) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Thrift, Amanda G. (7004824524) ;Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer (57194055872) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Tortajada, Miguel (16242320900) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Truelsen, Thomas (57202824565) ;Trujillo, Ulises (57216303285) ;Tsilimparis, Nikolaos (17435999400) ;Tuem, Kald Beshir (57216106503) ;Tuzcu, Emin Murat (7005951350) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289) ;Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500) ;Varakin, Yuri Y. (6603192360) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales (57208202014) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Vidavalur, Ramesh (57201445172) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vishnu, Abhishek (36515938100) ;Vladimirov, Sergey K. (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Waid, Jillian L. (57191965831) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Wesana, Joshua (56688521300) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Woldeyes, Belete Getahun (57195329524) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Workie, Shimelash Bitew (57191837199) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene (57190286375) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn (49664327400) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates - a measure of relative inequality - increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright © The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015(2016) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A (24342648300) ;Coates, Matthew M (57211076754) ;Coggeshall, Megan (56132969600) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Diallo, Khassoum (6701577865) ;Franca, Elisabeth Barboza (16031258100) ;Fraser, Maya (57202561859) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gething, Peter W (57193559189) ;Hay, Simon I (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kita, Maaya (57208149285) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Larson, Heidi J (57202559142) ;Liang, Juan (57198351058) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lim, Stephen S (57201800433) ;Lind, Margaret (57189271761) ;Lopez, Alan D (7401455668) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Mensah, George A (57196028147) ;Mikesell, Joseph B (57202572280) ;Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962) ;Mooney, Meghan D (57216598823) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Rakovac, Ivo (57201180617) ;Salomon, Joshua A (56745638600) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Sorensen, Reed J D (57196918748) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbas, Kaja M (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M (6603592018) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abraham, Biju (57202568691) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E (57216675148) ;Abyu, Gebre Yitayih (57190277969) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi (57203334499) ;Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508) ;Adelekan, Ademola Lukman (57216109261) ;Adou, Arsène Kouablan (56531895000) ;Agarwal, Arnav (56865159500) ;Ajala, Oluremi N (57218094659) ;Akinyemiju, Tomi F (57202561503) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Alam, Khurshid 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Philimon (57219703762) ;Goodridge, Amador (55801980200) ;Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891) ;Goto, Atsushi (36339255500) ;Gouda, Hebe N (57202432343) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Guo, Yuming (55712472800) ;Gupta, Rahul (57204120071) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Gupta, Vipin (57199940653) ;Gyawali, Bishal (56237046200) ;Haagsma, Juanita A (57202571125) ;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261) ;Haile, Demewoz (40861134200) ;Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne (57225733572) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526) ;Hamidi, Samer (24366336000) ;Hancock, Jamie (57202975481) ;Handal, Alexis J (57208977398) ;Hankey, Graeme J (7102816661) ;Harb, Hilda L (57221443122) ;Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai (57202524069) ;Harun, Kimani M (57190281262) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hay, Roderick J (56785229200) ;Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz (36941085200) ;Hoek, Hans W (57202570421) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hotez, Peter J (7004958298) ;Hoy, Damian G (57216593652) ;Hsairi, Mohamed (57209033943) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Huang, Cheng (57216683566) ;Huang, John J (56135699200) ;Huang, Hsiang (57202278530) ;Huiart, Laetitia (6602208431) ;Huynh, Chantal (57202556112) ;Iburg, Kim Moesgaard (57216814160) ;Idrisov, Bulat T (57208773503) ;Innos, Kaire (57217314902) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H (26029163100) ;Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718) ;Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886) ;Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (57204797176) ;Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900) ;Jeemon, Panniyammakal (57216324831) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Jiang, Guohong (56984997300) ;Jiang, Ying (57216138470) ;Jibat, Tariku (57212368830) ;Jin, Ye (56648601200) ;Jonas, Jost B (7202492953) ;Kabir, Zubair (57207901718) ;Kalkonde, Yogeshwar (57200250807) ;Kamal, Ritul (57203177242) ;Kan, Haidong (7101602991) ;Kang, Gagandeep (57202656584) ;Karch, André (57223444197) ;Karema, Corine Kakizi (57202557522) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kaul, Anil (16156995700) ;Kawakami, Norito (35377339000) ;Kayibanda, Jeanne Françoise (57200737035) ;Kazanjan, Konstantin (57193091626) ;Keiyoro, Peter Njenga (57203177260) ;Kemp, Andrew Haddon (57218313462) ;Kengne, Andre Pascal (7801322838) ;Keren, Andre (7005620132) ;Kereselidze, Maia (55659152900) ;Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair (57218000521) ;Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600) ;Khalil, Ibrahim A (58255049500) ;Khan, Abdur Rahman (55520620000) ;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khonelidze, Irma (57202287317) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kim, Cho-Il (57199973023) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375) ;Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038) ;Kivipelto, Miia (6701347410) ;Knibbs, Luke D (16313525200) ;Kokubo, Yoshihiro (56155004000) ;Kosen, Soewarta (57211346192) ;Koul, Parvaiz A (14022262900) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Kuate Defo, Barthelemy (6602271655) ;Kucuk Bicer, Burcu (57204528360) ;Kudom, Andreas A (36442735400) ;Kumar, G. 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(57202421244) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Park, Hye-Youn (57190283947) ;Parsaeian, Mahboubeh (57196467994) ;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J (35769665400) ;Patten, Scott B (57201492915) ;Pedro, João Mário (57208350594) ;Pereira, David M (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Pillay, Julian David (57197803061) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Pope, Daniel (7102019067) ;Popova, Svetlana (56848085800) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rabiee, Rynaz H S (57205452058) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Raju, Murugesan (57212263299) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rana, Saleem M (57204884092) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rao, Puja (57191835613) ;Refaat, Amany H 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;Sykes, Bryan L (57211183396) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E I (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taye, Bineyam (57210469900) ;Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920) ;Tefera, Worku Mekonnen (36631155200) ;Tekle, Tesfaye (57190280789) ;Temam Shifa, Girma (57217000284) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304) ;Thapa, Kiran (57216051128) ;Thomson, Alan J (57969994200) ;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L (57194437700) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas (57202824565) ;Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie (57210953239) ;Tura, Abera Kenay (57226206382) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N (57202824584) ;Uneke, Chigozie Jesse (57202824589) ;Uthman, Olalekan A (23026328100) ;Vaezghasemi, Masoud (57195195568) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales (57208202014) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Verma, Raj Kumar (59595278200) ;Violante, Francesco S (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey K (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Wang, Linhong (57303731300) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J (8609275600) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Widdowson, Marc-Alain (26429004600) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Williams, Thomas Neil (35430527200) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D A (57202754705) ;Wolfe, Ingrid (57219151544) ;Won, Sungho (57207796874) ;Wubshet, Mamo (54409732600) ;Xiao, Qingyang (59797114300) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadav, Ajit Kumar (57197675591) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zhang, Hao (59062050200) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Incidence, risk assessment and prevention of sudden cardiac death in cardiomyopathies(2023) ;Polovina, Marija (35273422300) ;Tschöpe, Carsten (7003819329) ;Rosano, Giuseppe (7007131876) ;Metra, Marco (7006770735) ;Crea, Filippo (57213692073) ;Mullens, Wilfried (55916359500) ;Bauersachs, Johann (7004626054) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;de Boer, Rudolf A. (8572907800) ;Farmakis, Dimitrios (55296706200) ;Thum, Thomas (57195743477) ;Corrado, Domenico (7004549983) ;Bayes-Genis, Antoni (7004094140) ;Bozkurt, Biykem (7004172442) ;Filippatos, Gerasimos (57396841000) ;Keren, Andre (7005620132) ;Skouri, Hadi (21934953600) ;Moura, Brenda (6602544591) ;Volterrani, Maurizio (7004062259) ;Abdelhamid, Magdy (57069808700) ;Ašanin, Milika (8603366900) ;Krljanac, Gordana (8947929900) ;Tomić, Milenko (58629586600) ;Savarese, Gianluigi (36189499900) ;Adamo, Marianna (56113383300) ;Lopatin, Yuri (59263990100) ;Chioncel, Ovidiu (12769077100) ;Coats, Andrew J.S. (35395386900)Seferović, Petar M. (55873742100)Cardiomyopathies are a significant contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, mainly due to the development of heart failure and increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Despite improvement in survival with contemporary treatment, SCD remains an important cause of mortality in cardiomyopathies. It occurs at a rate ranging between 0.15% and 0.7% per year (depending on the cardiomyopathy), which significantly surpasses SCD incidence in the age- and sex-matched general population. The risk of SCD is affected by multiple factors including the aetiology, genetic basis, age, sex, physical exertion, the extent of myocardial disease severity, conduction system abnormalities, and electrical instability, as measured by various metrics. Over the past decades, the knowledge on the mechanisms and risk factors for SCD has substantially improved, allowing for a better-informed risk stratification. However, unresolved issues still challenge the guidance of SCD prevention in patients with cardiomyopathies. In this review, we aim to provide an in-depth discussion of the contemporary concepts pertinent to understanding the burden, risk assessment and prevention of SCD in cardiomyopathies (dilated, non-dilated left ventricular, hypertrophic, arrhythmogenic right ventricular, and restrictive). The review first focuses on SCD incidence in cardiomyopathies and then summarizes established and emerging risk factors for life-threatening arrhythmias/SCD. Finally, it discusses validated approaches to the risk assessment and evidence-based measures for SCD prevention in cardiomyopathies, pointing to the gaps in evidence and areas of uncertainties that merit future clarification. © 2023 European Society of Cardiology. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdel-Rahman, Omar (55777635800) ;Abdi, Alireza (56845014200) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje (57192680787) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(22933845900) ;Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan (55970935700) ;Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907) ;Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100) ;Avokpaho, Euripide F. G. A. (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala (55598298700) ;Ayele, Henok Tadesse (55573710400) ;Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631) ;Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100) ;Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza (35301548800) ;Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000) ;Azzopardi-Muscat, Natasha (56185341300) ;Babalola, Tesleem Kayode (57196078601) ;Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032) ;Badali, Hamid (15123728900) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Balakrishnan, Kalpana (7103222725) ;Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615) ;Banach, Maciej (22936699500) ;Banerjee, Amitava (57208560645) ;Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975) ;Banstola, Amrit (57208985808) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100) ;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514) ;Bärnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675) ;Barthelemy, Celine M. 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(36248136000)Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826)Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700) ;Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. 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(7102284091) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi (56071020000) ;Safari, Hosein (57204236925) ;Safari, Yahya (55700424100) ;Safari-Faramani, Roya (57210821203) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Sajadi, Haniye Sadat (57190919153) ;Salahshoor, Mohamadreza (55580011800) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Saldanha, Raphael De Freitas (57193063393) ;Saleem, Zikria (56179814800) ;Salimi, Yahya (54421017000) ;Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Salz, Inbal (57199623777) ;Sambala, Evanson Zondani (36718133800) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores (57202569015) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi (57204561719) ;Sardana, Mayank (56992882500) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430) ;Saroshe, Satish (36125578600) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schelonka, Kathryn (57195377099) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826) ;Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900) ;Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shakir, Raad A. (55374140100) ;Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415) ;Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Sharafi, Heidar (57322506400) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000) ;Shukla, Sharvari Rahul (55760856000) ;Si, Si (56706979500) ;Siabani, Soraya (25227131300) ;Sibai, Abla Mehio (7005466998) ;Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata (57204560563) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Soares Filho, Adauto Martins (49961178500) ;Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080) ;Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221) ;Soofi, Moslem (56373891000) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Starodubov, Vladimir I. (6701820838) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Stewart, Leo G. (57204565284) ;Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000) ;Strong, Mark (12783473200) ;Subart, Michelle L. (57194140438) ;Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sulo, Gerhard (16242476100) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick John (57218360398) ;Sutradhar, Ipsita (57202349742) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylaja, P.N. (12787344300) ;Sylte, Dillon O. (57211183601) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E.I. (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tassew, Aberash Abay (57204559404) ;Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Tawye, Nega Yimer (57204567080) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037) ;Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Teshale, Manaye Yihune (57204566390) ;Tessema, Belay (20735503600) ;Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu (57193667629) ;Thakur, Jarnail Singh (57204002123) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish (54407369300) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Thomson, Alan J. 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(57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales (57208202014) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey (55906494000) ;Widecka, Justyna (15047205800) ;Widecka, Katarzyna (36761868700) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Wu, Shouling (57744442000) ;Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yentür, Gökalp Kadri (57211728019) ;Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yisma, Engida (55556060700) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication State-of-the-art document on optimal contemporary management of cardiomyopathies(2023) ;Seferović, Petar M. (55873742100) ;Polovina, Marija (35273422300) ;Rosano, Giuseppe (7007131876) ;Bozkurt, Biykem (7004172442) ;Metra, Marco (7006770735) ;Heymans, Stephane (6603326423) ;Mullens, Wilfried (55916359500) ;Bauersachs, Johann (7004626054) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;de Boer, Rudolf A. (8572907800) ;Farmakis, Dimitrios (55296706200) ;Thum, Thomas (57195743477) ;Olivotto, Iacopo (7005289080) ;Rapezzi, Claudio (7005883289) ;Linhart, Aleš (7004149017) ;Corrado, Domenico (7004549983) ;Tschöpe, Carsten (7003819329) ;Milinković, Ivan (51764040100) ;Bayes Genis, Antoni (7004094140) ;Filippatos, Gerasimos (57396841000) ;Keren, Andre (7005620132) ;Ašanin, Milika (8603366900) ;Krljanac, Gordana (8947929900) ;Maksimović, Ružica (55921156500) ;Skouri, Hadi (21934953600) ;Ben Gal, Tuvia (7003448638) ;Moura, Brenda (6602544591) ;Volterrani, Maurizio (7004062259) ;Abdelhamid, Magdy (57069808700) ;Lopatin, Yuri (59263990100) ;Chioncel, Ovidiu (12769077100)Coats, Andrew J.S. (35395386900)Cardiomyopathies represent significant contributors to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Over the past decades, a progress has occurred in characterization of the genetic background and major pathophysiological mechanisms, which has been incorporated into a more nuanced diagnostic approach and risk stratification. Furthermore, medications targeting core disease processes and/or their downstream adverse effects have been introduced for several cardiomyopathies. Combined with standard care and prevention of sudden cardiac death, these novel and emerging targeted therapies offer a possibility of improving the outcomes in several cardiomyopathies. Therefore, the aim of this document is to summarize practical approaches to the treatment of cardiomyopathies, which includes the evidence-based novel therapeutic concepts and established principles of care, tailored to the individual patient aetiology and clinical presentation of the cardiomyopathy. The scope of the document encompasses contemporary treatment of dilated, hypertrophic, restrictive and arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy. It was based on an expert consensus reached at the Heart Failure Association online Workshop, held on 18 March 2021. © 2023 European Society of Cardiology.
