Browsing by Author "Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236)"
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Publication Child and adolescent health from 1990 to 2015: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2015 study(2017) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas (57202562224) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Olsen, Helen Elizabeth (57203080494) ;Thomas, Katie (56239717800) ;Pinho, Christine (57212482983) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Ferrari, Alize (57195348907) ;Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lopez, Alan (7401455668) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Salomon, Joshua (56745638600) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hasen (57207943858) ;Abbas, Kaja (57190285707) ;Damtew, Solomon Abrha (58991324800) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Antonio, Carl A.T. (55247644500) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (57200155811) ;Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala (55598298700) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Betsu, Balem Demtsu (57196316128) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Baye, Estifanos (57211220426) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernal, Oscar Alberto (44060935600) ;Beyene, Addisu Shunu (57209036705) ;Biadgilign, Sibhatu (57195448180) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Boyce, Cheryl Anne (7005306160) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700) ;Catala-Lopez, Ferran (57202553733) ;Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086) ;Chitheer, Abdulaal A. (57209314488) ;Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine (57209706428) ;Ciobanu, Liliana G. (57201603453) ;Crump, John (57202595111) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Dellavalle, Robert P. (7003806771) ;Deribew, Amare (25625914400) ;DeVeber, Gabrielle (57204345472) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Ding, Eric L. (54413849800) ;Dubey, Manisha (57219898654) ;Endries, Amanuel Yesuf (57216324852) ;Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676) ;Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino (57195414019) ;Faro, Andre (36770969600) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Joao C. (35274726800) ;Fijabi, Daniel Obadare (56133163100) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Flor, Luisa Sorio (54414102000) ;Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414) ;Franklin, Richard C. (7201428429) ;Fraser, Maya S. (57202561859) ;Frostad, Joseph J. (57222306717) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebru, Alemseged Aregay (57196196083) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Yihdego, Mahari Gidey (57194541914) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed (57192378390) ;Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo (57202568734) ;Gizachew, Tessema Assefa (57194547996) ;Glaser, Elizabeth (56133254300) ;Gold, Audra L. (57194129483) ;Goldberg, Ellen (57191842703) ;Gona, Philimon (57219703762) ;Goto, Atsushi (36339255500) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Jiang, Guohong (56984997300) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hijar, Martha (57216555124) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700) ;Jayaraman, Sudha P. (57204716526) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Jibat, Tariku (57212368830) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Jonas, Jost (7202492953) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kawakami, Norito (35377339000) ;Keiyoro, Peter N. (57203177260) ;Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A. Ahmad (57199100665) ;Kieling, Christian (57218820714) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038) ;Knibbs, Luke D. (16313525200) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krohn, Kristopher J. (57194138806) ;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655) ;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk (57204528360) ;Kulikoff, Rachel (57192649345) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Lam, Hilton Y. (35484312600) ;Larson, Heidi J. (57223681247) ;Larsson, Anders (56381985300) ;Laryea, Dennis Odai (57201281307) ;Leung, Janni (57214397752) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Lo, Loon-Tzian (57214204231) ;Lo, Warren D. (8964933400) ;Looker, Katharine J. (57202553673) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Shifti, Desalegn Markos (57210741352) ;Mazidi, Mohsen (57203231746) ;Meaney, Peter A. (57208635601) ;Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam (57951018400) ;Memiah, Peter (57217207827) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistie, Mubarek Abera (56045752700) ;Mengistu, Gebremichael Welday (57225351270) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mock, Charles (7005790549) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Mueller, Ulrich (8512347500) ;Nagata, Chie (50061824800) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771) ;Nsoesie, Elaine (57222955478) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko O. (57218504682) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Polanczyk, Guilherme V. (6507552141) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rankin, Zane (57200251742) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Roba, Hirbo Shore (57200684844) ;Rojas-Rueda, David (57203642966) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Mohammed, Muktar Sano Kedir (57226235199) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57220001947) ;Schottker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;She, June (59865584200) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Singh, Jasvinder (7404421736) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Smith, Alison (57191843859) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar (57212263335) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taye, Bineyam (57210469900) ;Teeple, Stephanie (57191850890) ;Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw (57216998561) ;Shifa, Girma Temam (57211793093) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Thomas, Bernadette (7401507541) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Uthman, Olalekan (23026328100) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57189653936) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert (7006079405) ;Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam (57194550425) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Vos, Theo (57223885848)IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95%UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored. © 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300) ;Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000) ;Adib, Mina G. (57204560513) ;Admasie, Amha (56609274200) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700) ;Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alebel, Animut (57195961302) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, Francois (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Alonso, Jordi (7403482329) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300) ;Amini, Erfan (35073393800) ;Ammar, Walid (57208159281) ;Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700) ;Anber, Nahla Hamed (57202351369) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Androudi, Sofia (6603286512) ;Animut, Megbaru Debalkie (57204558749) ;Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282) ;Ansari, Hossein (56919376000) ;Ansha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500) ;Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526) ;Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Arora, Amit (36676951800) ;Arora, Monika (8700408200) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay (57203306449) ;Ataro, Zerihun (57204563849) ;Atique, Suleman (56505419100) ;Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900) ;Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907) ;Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A. (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700) ;Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631) ;Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100) ;Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000) ;Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Badali, Hamid (15123728900) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615) ;Ballesteros, Katherine E. (57207968050) ;Banach, Maciej (22936699500) ;Banerjee, Kajori (57193448932) ;Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518) ;Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975) ;Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100) ;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Barquera, Simon (6601928375) ;Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675) ;Bassat, Quique (23024176000) ;Basu, Sanjay (9335409500) ;Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336) ;Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw (57192710748) ;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad (57205912040) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Beghi, Ettore (7004809655) ;Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696) ;Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000) ;Bejot, Yannick (14038743100) ;Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941) ;Belachew, Abate Bekele (57201657313) ;Belay, Ezra (56372891800) ;Belay, Yihalem Abebe (57202972558) ;Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450) ;Bello, Aminu K. (12759638700) ;Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berman, Adam E. (7201959854) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200) ;Bertolacci, Gregory J. (57204558417) ;Beuran, Mircea (25229806700) ;Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763) ;Bhalla, Ashish (57202555305) ;Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200) ;Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep (55643126300) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Biadgo, Belete (55672090500) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Bijani, Ali (23134684900) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Bilano, Ver (57189663783) ;Bililign, Nigus (57216264444) ;Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat (55408904500) ;Bisanzio, Donal (57196394991) ;Biswas, Tuhin (59824959000) ;Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381) ;Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500) ;Borschmann, Rohan (35091024300) ;Bosetti, Cristina (7005452936) ;Bozorgmehr, Kayvan (34767823500) ;Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651) ;Brant, Luisa C. (40160889400) ;Brayne, Carol (57210386759) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. (6603260895) ;Brenner, Hermann (7201832825) ;Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334) ;Britton, Gabrielle (7004997832) ;Brugha, Traolach (35370057100) ;Busse, Reinhard (35589070800) ;Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739) ;Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691) ;Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. 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(57191340780) ;Lorkowski, Stefan (57203677656) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;Lozano, Rafael (57570224000) ;Lubinda, Jailos (56700387300) ;Lucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500) ;Luo, Lisha (57192420067) ;Lv, Hengliang (58576838700) ;Amin, Hawraz Ibrahim M. (57189760740) ;Ma, Zheng Feei (56248284800) ;Maass, Kelsey Lynn (57211536483) ;Mabrok, Mahmoud (57202002158) ;Machairas, Nikolaos (55761474700) ;Machoy, Monika (56123551300) ;Mafhoumi, Asma (58973640400) ;El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd (57216629996) ;Maghazachi, Azzam A. (7004562043) ;Prasad, D.R. Mahadeshwara (57220181627) ;Maharaj, Sandeep B. (54883987800) ;Mahmoud, Mansour Adam (55461775000) ;Mahmoudi, Elham (37034395100) ;Majeed, Azeem (57217722657) ;Makram, Omar Mohamed (57201684400) ;Makris, Konstantinos Christos (6506570505) ;Malasala, Satyaveni (57204012837) ;Maled, Venkatesh (59317098500) ;Malhotra, Kashish (57224508895)Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study(2020) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Addolorato, Giovanni (7006562766) ;Ammirati, Enrico (25923325700) ;Baddour, Larry M. (7006882459) ;Barengo, Noel C. (6602394675) ;Beaton, Andrea (25957617800) ;Benjamin, Emelia J. (57212852919) ;Benziger, Catherine P. (55174180000) ;Bonny, Aime (57190091246) ;Brauer, Michael (57218330976) ;Brodmann, Marianne (57088173800) ;Cahill, Thomas J. (55629535200) ;Carapetis, Jonathan R. (7003343936) ;Catapano, Alberico L. (7006246941) ;Chugh, Sumeet (35253639000) ;Cooper, Leslie T. (15754277900) ;Coresh, Josef (7005367498) ;Criqui, Michael H. (57212369327) ;DeCleene, Nicole K. (57219860801) ;Eagle, Kim A. (57211739481) ;Emmons-Bell, Sophia (57195738343) ;Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957) ;Fernández-Sola, Joaquim (7004312773) ;Fowkes, F. Gerry R. 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(57202424871) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wang, Yanzhong (59417336500) ;Wang, Fang (57216134149) ;Wei, Jingkai (56163346700) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldemariam, Abrha H. (57221587797) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Winkler, Andrea S. (58323746700) ;Wiysonge, Charles S. (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse (57200671454) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896) ;Yamagishi, Kazumasa (35231751500) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yandrapalli, Srikanth (56512389300) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304) ;Yeheyis, Tomas Y. (57219861340) ;Yeshaw, Yigizie (57197818606) ;Yilgwan, Christopher S. (36057611800) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200) ;Zachariah, Geevar (55421383400) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zaman, Muhammed S. (57221663045) ;Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465) ;Zand, Ramin (23669868100) ;Zandifar, Alireza (55334814000) ;Zarghi, Afshin (7003559162) ;Zastrozhin, Mikhail S. (56728932200) ;Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200) ;Zhang, Wangjian (57216303139) ;Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900) ;Zou, Zhiyong (35270950600) ;Zuniga, Yves Miel H. (57194979049) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Fuster, Valentin (7202675508)Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. © 2020 The Authors - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. 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(57204092789) ;Updike, Rachel (57204698680) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289) ;Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wallin, Mitchell T. (57201573668) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whetter, Brian (57201998502) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Woldeyes, Belete Getahun (57195329524) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xiao, Qingyang (59797114300) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (57212400558) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specifc mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods: We estimated cause-specifc deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specifc causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifc deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16 - age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL signifcantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the fve leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a fner level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and confict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might refect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which efective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(23026328100) ;Uzun, Selen Begum (57200327315) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Vaidya, Gaurang (55551507300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wagner, Gregory R. (57219005948) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wallin, Mitchell Taylor (57201573668) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Wassie, Molla Mesele (56499356400) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
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(56990441500) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Alabed, Samer (58021637200) ;Alam, Noore K. (57202437697) ;Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed (57190287615) ;Alem, Girma (57219674356) ;Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Amare, Azmeraw (57202220009) ;Amoako, Yaw (44960986700) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Atnafu, Niguse (57140833400) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Saleem, Huda Ba (57211004875) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Bensenor, Isabela (7004830338) ;Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735) ;Bernabé, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Betsu, Balem (57196316128) ;Binagwaho, Agnes (8314417100) ;Boneya, Dube (57194067231) ;Campos-Nonato, Ismael (57203424784) ;Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos (35769124700) ;Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733) ;Chiang, Peggy (59846886500) ;Chibueze, Chioma (57244744000) ;Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488) ;Choi, Jee-Young (59890752700) ;Cowie, Benjamin (57202566182) ;Damtew, Solomon (58991324800) ;Das Neves, José (57208073193) ;Dey, Suhojit (25958052600) ;Dharmaratne, Samath (57216324802) ;Dhillon, Preet (57201002943) ;Ding, Eric (54413849800) ;Driscoll, Tim (7005928308) ;Ekwueme, Donatus (56664774000) ;Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852) ;Farvid, Maryam (8273562500) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Joao (35274726800) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566) ;Gebru, Alemseged (57196196083) ;Gopalani, Sameer (57190277891) ;Hailu, Alemayehu (57225733572) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Husseini, Abdullatif (57221681109) ;Huybrechts, Inge (13406113100) ;Inoue, Manami (57202880842) ;Islami, Farhad (56926442900) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700) ;James, Spencer (57202557998) ;Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886) ;Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kedir, Muktar Sano (57226235199) ;Khader, Yousef S. (55654192600) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Leigh, James (7202089604) ;Linn, Shai (7102590173) ;Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063) ;El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102) ;Markos, Desalegn (57210741352) ;Melaku, Yohannes A. (57203122720) ;Meles, Kidanu G (57951018400) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengiste, Desalegn Tadese (57196316791) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623) ;Nand, Devina (55575672100) ;Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771) ;Nolte, Sandra (24073274400) ;Ogbo, Felix A. (57217186813) ;Oladimeji, Kelechi E. (57194580686) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Pa, Mahesh (57212735186) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Pereira, David M (57200690024) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092) ;Søreide, Kjetil (9233319000) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shore, Hirbo Roba (57200684844) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57221973854) ;So, Samuel (7102397384) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920) ;Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304) ;Thakur, J.S. (57204002123) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584) ;Chudi Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. (57194422038) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Wubshet Terefe, Mamo (57194067610) ;Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57222997212) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet. Copyright 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 32 cancer groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration(2017) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Allen, Christine (57200170678) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Barregard, Lars (57226221232) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Brenner, Hermann (7201832825) ;Dicker, Daniel J. (57196026676) ;Chimed-Orchir, Odgerel (57217262222) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Fleming, Tom (57222727747) ;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (57202562738) ;Hancock, Jamie (57202975481) ;Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200) ;Hunter-Merrill, Rachel (36671231500) ;Huynh, Chantal (57202556112) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Kutz, Michael (57195617315) ;Lan, Qing (56682598900) ;Larson, Heidi J. (57202559142) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668) ;MacIntyre, Michael F. (57202561757) ;Marczak, Laurie (57200295553) ;Marquez, Neal (57200287617) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Pinho, Christine (57212482983) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Sandar, Logan (57202561352) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Schwartz, Stephen M. (57199222173) ;Shackelford, Katya A. (57202959163) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Stanaway, Jeff (57201210928) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Sun, Jiandong (55547135892) ;Takahashi, Ken (55741242600) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wagner, Joseph A. (56990441500) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Alabed, Samer (58021637200) ;Alam, Noore K. (57202437697) ;Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed (57190287615) ;Alem, Girma (57219674356) ;Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Amare, Azmeraw (57202220009) ;Amoako, Yaw (44960986700) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Atnafu, Niguse (57140833400) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Saleem, Huda Ba (57211004875) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Bensenor, Isabela (7004830338) ;Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735) ;Bernabé, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Betsu, Balem (57196316128) ;Binagwaho, Agnes (8314417100) ;Boneya, Dube (57194067231) ;Campos-Nonato, Ismael (57203424784) ;Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos (35769124700) ;Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733) ;Chiang, Peggy (59846886500) ;Chibueze, Chioma (57244744000) ;Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488) ;Choi, Jee-Young (59890752700) ;Cowie, Benjamin (57202566182) ;Damtew, Solomon (58991324800) ;Das Neves, José (57208073193) ;Dey, Suhojit (25958052600) ;Dharmaratne, Samath (57216324802) ;Dhillon, Preet (57201002943) ;Ding, Eric (54413849800) ;Driscoll, Tim (7005928308) ;Ekwueme, Donatus (56664774000) ;Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852) ;Farvid, Maryam (8273562500) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Joao (35274726800) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566) ;Gebru, Alemseged (57196196083) ;Gopalani, Sameer (57190277891) ;Hailu, Alemayehu (57225733572) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Husseini, Abdullatif (57221681109) ;Huybrechts, Inge (13406113100) ;Inoue, Manami (57202880842) ;Islami, Farhad (56926442900) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700) ;James, Spencer (57202557998) ;Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886) ;Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kedir, Muktar Sano (57226235199) ;Khader, Yousef S. (55654192600) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Leigh, James (7202089604) ;Linn, Shai (7102590173) ;Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063) ;El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102) ;Markos, Desalegn (57210741352) ;Melaku, Yohannes A. (57203122720) ;Meles, Kidanu G (57951018400) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengiste, Desalegn Tadese (57196316791) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623) ;Nand, Devina (55575672100) ;Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771) ;Nolte, Sandra (24073274400) ;Ogbo, Felix A. (57217186813) ;Oladimeji, Kelechi E. (57194580686) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Pa, Mahesh (57212735186) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Pereira, David M (57200690024) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092) ;Søreide, Kjetil (9233319000) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shore, Hirbo Roba (57200684844) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57221973854) ;So, Samuel (7102397384) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920) ;Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304) ;Thakur, J.S. (57204002123) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584) ;Chudi Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. (57194422038) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Wubshet Terefe, Mamo (57194067610) ;Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57222997212) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet. Copyright 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Gakidou, Emmanuela (57202567277) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Abyu, Gebre Yitayih (57190277969) ;Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji (56598104300) ;Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar (57199100665) ;Ahmadieh, Hamid (57203677679) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Noore (57202437697) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57211114684) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Ali, Komal (57201650740) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, François (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255) ;Altirkawi, Khalid A. (57202762923) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Amini, Erfan (35073393800) ;Ammar, Walid (57208159281) ;Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700) ;Ansari, Hossein (56919376000) ;Antó, Josep M. (56196020900) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500) ;Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526) ;Arian, Nicholas (57199421908) ;Ärnlöv, Johan (6602512227) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Aryal, Krishna Kumar (57203859052) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal (57203681037) ;Atey, Tesfay Mehari (57209784978) ;Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100) ;Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (57200155811) ;Azzopardi, Peter (56861081000) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Balakrishnan, Kalpana (7103222725) ;Ballew, Shoshana H. (34067516900) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Barker-Collo, Suzanne L. 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(8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zavala-Arciniega, Luis (57196083471) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zimsen, Stephanie Raman M. (57196078433) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adedeji, Isaac A. 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(57207920084)Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. 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(55481130700)Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. 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(57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Wadilo, Fiseha (57194049305) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weaver, Marcia (7201548872) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Wulf Hanson, Sarah (57212263269) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yan, Lijing L. (35933756700) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;James, Spencer L. (57202557998) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Acharya, Pawan (56435749900) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. 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(7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802) ;Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Mereta, Seid Tiku (57203628211) ;Meretoja, Atte (12775885500) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi (57575826800) ;Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900) ;Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689) ;Millear, Anoushka I. (57204879537) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Miltz, Benjamin (57204557588) ;Mini, G.K. (12800865800) ;Mirarefin, Mojde (57222113397) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen (57202808713) ;Mitchell, Philip B. (35354747000) ;Mitiku, Habtamu (49864023500) ;Moazen, Babak (57204324006) ;Mohajer, Bahram (57039225300) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700) ;Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa (57203524570) ;Mohammed, Mohammed A. (57196575014) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mohebi, Farnam (55633844600) ;Moitra, Modhurima (57191962343) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Moodley, Yoshan (57210652387) ;Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500) ;Moradi, Ghobad (48161434000) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Moradinazar, Mehdi (59750499200) ;Moraga, Paula (46761426800) ;Morawska, Lidia (7004773965) ;Moreno Velásquez, Ilais (56499291900) ;Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana (57204560697) ;Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100) ;Moschos, Marilita M. (7004456074) ;Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700) ;Mruts, Kalayu Brhane (57221822877) ;Muche, Achenef Asmamaw (57195576373) ;Muchie, Kindie Fentahun (57194458469) ;Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500) ;Muhammed, Oumer Sada (57202727745) ;Mukhopadhyay, Satinath (36342847700) ;Muller, Kate (57196075658) ;Mumford, John Everett (57221821974) ;Murhekar, Manoj (35551594800) ;Musa, Jonah (15022919200) ;Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466) ;Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960) ;Nabhan, Ashraf F. 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Alex (6507023057) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Rajati, Fatemeh (54780507400) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Ranjan, Prabhat (57200595370) ;Ranta, Anna (26768039500) ;Rao, Puja C. (57191835613) ;Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Reddy, K. Srinath (35417788900) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reinig, Nickolas (57208577401) ;Reitsma, Marissa Bettay (57208766315) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Rezaei, Satar (55791003000) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300) ;Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. (57204577960) ;Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Rostami, Ali (59144808300) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Sadat, Nafis (57219687343) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500) ;Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar (56071020000) ;Safari, Hosein (57204236925) ;Safari, Yahya (55700424100) ;Safari-Faramani, Roya (57210821203) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Sajadi, Haniye Sadat (57190919153) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Saleem, Komal (58834310300) ;Saleem, Zikria (56179814800) ;Salimi, Yahya (54421017000) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Salz, Inbal (57199623777) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Sang, Yingying (55192664300) ;Santomauro, Damian Francesco (56912450700) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santos, João Vasco (57226214352) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi (57204561719) ;Sardana, Mayank (56992882500) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Saylan, Mete (56253241700) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826) ;Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893) ;Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500) ;Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900) ;Shahbazi, Mehdi (58427375600) ;Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415) ;Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Sharafi, Heidar (57322506400) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000) ;Sharma, Meenakshi (58730797800) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shishani, Kawkab (14025005500) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000) ;Shoman, Haitham (57208324664) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Si, Si (56706979500) ;Siabani, Soraya (25227131300) ;Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata (57204560563) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Slepak, Erica Leigh N. (57205356367) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Soares Filho, Adauto Martins (49961178500) ;Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080) ;Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221) ;Sobngwi, Eugène (6701427993) ;Soneji, Samir S. (57204096389) ;Soofi, Moslem (56373891000) ;Soosaraei, Masoud (57192700508) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steiner, Timothy J. (16837503200) ;Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000) ;Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390) ;Subart, Michelle L. (57194140438) ;Sudaryanto, Agus (57305372500) ;Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick John (57218360398) ;Sutradhar, Ipsita (57202349742) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylte, Dillon O. (57211183601) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun (56811144600) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Taylor, Hugh R. (55550572900) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037) ;Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey (57204566273) ;Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146) ;Temesgen, Habtamu (57205011874) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Temsah, Omar (57204559820) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu (57193667629) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730) ;To, Quyen G. (55827789100) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Torre, Anna E. (57196074351) ;Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel (16242320900) ;Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536) ;Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565) ;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis K. (6701721894) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Tuzcu, E. Murat (7005951350) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Unutzer, Jurgen (7007005108) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Waller, Stephen G. (57201445180) ;Wang, Yafeng (57208674780) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Widecka, Justyna (15047205800) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wilner, Lauren B. (57193699787) ;Wilson, Shadrach (57204557765) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wiyeh, Alison B. (57196222987) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Wu, Shouling (57744442000) ;Wu, Yun-Chun (56095674500) ;Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896) ;Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100) ;Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144) ;Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yisma, Engida (55556060700) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamani, Mohammad (59866744200) ;Zare, Zohreh (35436578700)Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdel-Rahman, Omar (55777635800) ;Abdi, Alireza (56845014200) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje (57192680787) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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Santric (57209748201) ;Jose, Bruno Piassi Sao (57202052980) ;Sardana, Mayank (56992882500) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Savic, Miloje (57204524150) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Saylan, Mete (56253241700) ;Sayyah, Mehdi (10540414200) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J. C. (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826)Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
