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Browsing by Author "Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)"

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    Publication
    Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
    Kocarnik, Jonathan M. (56041211800)
    ;
    Compton, Kelly (57205330541)
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    Dean, Frances E. (57211949247)
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    Fu, Weijia (57218882680)
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    Gaw, Brian L. (57405726000)
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    Harvey, James D. (57196074369)
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    Henrikson, Hannah Jacqueline (57219861283)
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    Lu, Dan (59057346200)
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    Pennini, Alyssa (57210820174)
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    Xu, Rixing (57204186670)
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    Ababneh, Emad (57210792873)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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    Abd-Elsalam, Sherief M. (57189845325)
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    Abdoli, Amir (59421084100)
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    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Advani, Shailesh M. (56841222900)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Aghaali, Mohammad (38860949800)
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    Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030)
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    Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022)
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    Ahmad, Tauseef (57214283386)
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    Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515)
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    Ahmadi, Sepideh (58189812000)
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    Ahmed Rashid, Tarik (57023479100)
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    Ahmed Salih, Yusra (57226834461)
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    Akalu, Gizachew Taddesse (56905441600)
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    Aklilu, Addis (56450972500)
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    Akram, Tayyaba (57208951047)
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    Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet (57214884531)
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    Al Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200)
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    Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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    Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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    Ali, Saqib (7403094290)
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    Alimohamadi, Yousef (56069375900)
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    Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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    Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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    Alkhayyat, Motasem (57191475872)
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    Almasi-Hashiani, Amir (42360952700)
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    Almasri, Nihad A. (35301840000)
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    Al-Maweri, Sadeq Ali Ali (36023535700)
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    Almustanyir, Sami (57217589155)
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    Alonso, Nivaldo (7004026436)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Anbesu, Etsay Woldu (57219860911)
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    Ancuceanu, Robert (35728302200)
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    Ansari, Fereshteh (56478531800)
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    Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza (57192807651)
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    Antwi, Maxwell Hubert (57224904063)
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    Anvari, Davood (57201259536)
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    Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419)
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    Aqeel, Muhammad (57192083161)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Arab-Zozani, Morteza (57210284593)
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    Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
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    Ariffin, Hany (7004238528)
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    Aripov, Timur (35104283700)
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    Arshad, Muhammad (25722979300)
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    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
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    Arulappan, Judie (57224210161)
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    Asemi, Zatollah (36738697900)
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    Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad (57226675591)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Atorkey, Prince (57218950488)
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    Aujayeb, Avinash (6504403791)
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    Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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    Awedew, Atalel Fentahun (57216741537)
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    Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700)
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    Ayenew, Temesgen (57202544869)
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    Azab, Mohammed A. (57202323253)
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    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
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    Azari Jafari, Amirhossein (56084531100)
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    Azarian, Ghasem (57220306214)
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    Azzam, Ahmed Y. (57208274797)
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    Badiye, Ashish D. (56340201200)
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    Bahadory, Saeed (57208205157)
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    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
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    Baker, Jennifer L. (8705509600)
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    Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar (56640778400)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Bärnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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    Barone-Adesi, Francesco (8722189200)
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    Barra, Fabio (57201953956)
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    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
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    Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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    Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal (55639511900)
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    Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. Mequanint (55932461200)
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    Bezabih, Yihienew Mequanint (57209397638)
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    Bhagat, Devidas S. (57327243700)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Bhardwaj, Nikha (57221591832)
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    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
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    Bhaskar, Sonu (57192268582)
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    Bhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)
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    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
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    Bibi, Sadia (57524553300)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Biondi, Antonio (57226837403)
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    Bisignano, Catherine (57211140934)
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    Bjorge, Tone (7004208100)
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    Bleyer, Archie (57192109538)
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    Blyuss, Oleg (56020531500)
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    Bolarinwa, Obasanjo Afolabi (57218336464)
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    Bolla, Srinivasa Rao (23048516100)
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    Braithwaite, Dejana (7006987079)
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    Brar, Amanpreet (57675605800)
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    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
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    Bustamante-Teixeira, Maria Teresa (6506392089)
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    Butt, Nadeem Shafique (7003613681)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano (56373058500)
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    Cao, Yin (55270204400)
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    Carreras, Giulia (57221176357)
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    Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)
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    Cembranel, Francieli (55867592900)
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    Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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    Cernigliaro, Achille (12787090100)
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    Chakinala, Raja Chandra (57190575127)
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    Chattu, Soosanna Kumary (57209796729)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Chaturvedi, Pankaj (35547314900)
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    Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel (57217262222)
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    Cho, Daniel Youngwhan (57192666710)
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    Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Chung, Michael T. (55551050400)
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    Conde, Joao (56992468300)
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    Cortés, Sanda (55659922800)
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    Cortesi, Paolo Angelo (57200306512)
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    Costa, Vera Marisa (17134373000)
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    Cunha, Amanda Ramos (57214078354)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dagnew, Amare Belachew (57194785365)
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    Dahlawi, Saad M.A. (57189234459)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (57221591169)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Darwesh, Aso Mohammad (57199749880)
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    das Neves, José (57208073193)
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    De la Hoz, Fernando Pio (23134262800)
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    Demis, Asmamaw Bizuneh (57207453281)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dhamnetiya, Deepak (56884613200)
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    Dhimal, Mandira Lamichhane (57201374139)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Dianatinasab, Mostafa (57281638900)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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    Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094)
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    Doaei, Saeid (56016552900)
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    Dorostkar, Fariba (57214882995)
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    dos Santos Figueiredo, Francisco Winter (57197830836)
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    Driscoll, Tim Robert (7005928308)
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    Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
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    Eftekharzadeh, Sahar (57192113055)
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    El Tantawi, Maha (57214851491)
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    El-Abid, Hassan (59138919700)
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    Elbarazi, Iffat (58509635500)
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    Elhabashy, Hala Rashad (34869491800)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. (34869528300)
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    Eshrati, Babak (16030619200)
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    Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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    Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz (56450483600)
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    Etemadi, Arash (7004686554)
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    Ezzikouri, Sayeh (16836144700)
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    Faisaluddin, Mohammed (57204007767)
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    Faraon, Emerito Jose A. (57195414019)
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    Fares, Jawad (55606854400)
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    Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
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    Feroze, Abdullah Hamid (47161109900)
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    Ferrero, Simone (57190137236)
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    Ferro Desideri, Lorenzo (57201549628)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Fisher, James L. (7404013876)
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    Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Gaal, Peter Andras (55966171600)
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    Gad, Mohamed M. (57203749611)
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    Gadanya, Muktar A. (25957587400)
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    Gallus, Silvano (7005387365)
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    Gaspar Fonseca, Mariana (57363275600)
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    Getachew Obsa, Abera (57356847100)
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    Ghafourifard, Mansour (57193420915)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Ghith, Nermin (55249750100)
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    Gholamalizadeh, Maryam (56017715600)
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    Gilani, Syed Amir (37008269900)
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    Ginindza, Themba G. (24468039800)
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    Gizaw, Abraham Tamirat T. (57193237477)
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    Glasbey, James C. (57195948986)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Goleij, Pouya (57217533849)
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    Gomez, Ricardo Santiago (7402250311)
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    Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
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    Gorini, Giuseppe (56509988200)
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    Goudarzi, Houman (55606092000)
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    Grosso, Giuseppe (57196998256)
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    Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen (57210795029)
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    Guerra, Maximiliano Ribeiro (56818011600)
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    Guha, Avirup (56201612900)
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    Gunasekera, D. Sanjeeva (6701450084)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Gutiérrez, Reyna Alma (57200298415)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Haider, Mohammad Rifat (56660365700)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hamadeh, Randah R. (57202769526)
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    Hameed, Sajid (57225330442)
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    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Haque, Shafiul (35793732800)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
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    Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hassanipour, Soheil (57191513993)
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    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hayat, Khezar (57219918947)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana (57204618451)
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    Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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    Hezam, Kamal (57199187791)
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    Holla, Ramesh (55270371800)
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    Hossain, Md Mahbub (57207311791)
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    Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain (36028425500)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Hosseini, Mostafa (57204569481)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hostiuc, Mihaela (51763789200)
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    Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800)
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    Househ, Mowafa (8667908000)
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    Hsairi, Mohamed (57209033943)
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    Huang, Junjie (57199198962)
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    Hugo, Fernando N. (13403199800)
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    Hussain, Rabia (7103224786)
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    Hussein, Nawfal R. (24766000100)
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    Hwang, Bing-Fang (7201453928)
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    Iavicoli, Ivo (6603685479)
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    Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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    Ida, Fidelia (57218557641)
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    Ikuta, Kevin S. (57211541916)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Irham, Lalu Muhammad (57195464918)
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    Islam, Jessica Y. (26032107000)
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    Islam, Rakibul M. (57205202128)
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    Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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    Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900)
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    Isola, Gaetano (25825125500)
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    Iwagami, Masao (54381883100)
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    Jacob, Louis (56779678900)
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    Jain, Vardhmaan (57208149266)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700)
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    Javaheri, Tahereh (36102883000)
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    Jayaram, Shubha (57221589240)
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    Jazayeri, Seyed Behzad (55260694800)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Joo, Tamas (57214777013)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Joukar, Farahnaz (26024213000)
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    Jürisson, Mikk (55547524800)
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    Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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    Kahrizi, Danial (15725585500)
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    Kalankesh, Leila R. (12796418600)
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    Kalhor, Rohollah (55670548600)
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    Kaliyadan, Feroze (16836323500)
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    Kalkonde, Yogeshwar (57211874790)
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    Kamath, Ashwin (35724313100)
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    Kameran Al-Salihi, Nawzad (24576701300)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Kapoor, Neeti (56340726700)
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    Karch, André (55917217700)
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    Kasa, Ayele Semachew (57203538861)
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    Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal (6508254091)
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    Kauppila, Joonas H. (37665210400)
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    Kavetskyy, Taras (57220358576)
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    Kebede, Sewnet Adem (57215661049)
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    Keshavarz, Pedram (57209008531)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khalilov, Rovshan (57193308858)
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    Khan, Gulfaraz (6701635515)
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    Khan, Maseer (57215721758)
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    Khan, Md Nuruzzaman (57209404949)
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    Khan, Moien A.B. (57209800900)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Khater, Amir M. (57211138055)
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    Khayamzadeh, Maryam (57212086295)
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    Kim, Gyu Ri (57204396981)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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    Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna (6508376962)
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    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
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    Koteeswaran, Rajasekaran (56685819200)
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    Koul, Parvaiz A. (14022262900)
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    Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi (57196152832)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Kucuk Bicer, Burcu (57204528360)
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    Kugbey, Nuworza (57195398167)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
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    Kumar, Nithin (36678889900)
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    Kurmi, Om P. (23389886800)
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    Kutluk, Tezer (20934856000)
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    La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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    Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
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    Landires, Iván (15063040000)
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    Lauriola, Paolo (7004129174)
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    Lee, Sang-Woong (57193130569)
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    Lee, Shaun Wen Huey (35201185800)
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    Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700)
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    Lee, Yo Han (57193632340)
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    Leigh, James (7202089604)
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    Leong, Elvynna (56462346200)
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    Li, Jiarui (57205664641)
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    Li, Ming-Chieh (56144176300)
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    Liu, Xuefeng (37050047900)
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    Loureiro, Joana A. (55851941412)
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    Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063)
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    Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed (57201191366)
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    Majeed, Azeem (7102027801)
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    Makki, Alaa (57224607101)
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    Male, Shilpa (57404584000)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
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    Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)
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    Martini, Santi (57162600900)
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    Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra (55769011500)
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    Mathur, Prashant (7201845777)
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    McKee, Martin (7202304775)
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    Mehrotra, Ravi (7203045563)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900)
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    Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku (57216203521)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (57204623773)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Miao Jonasson, Junmei (35875296300)
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    Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900)
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    Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689)
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    Michalek, Irmina Maria (56982945900)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Mirzaei, Hamed (37034594600)
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    Mirzaei, Hamid Reza (57218466685)
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    Misra, Sanjeev (35501005200)
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    Mithra, Prasanna (36018632500)
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    Moghadaszadeh, Masoud (57200791890)
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    Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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    Mohammad, Yousef (6603403710)
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    Mohammadi, Mokhtar (57188972365)
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    Mohammadi, Seyyede Momeneh (57190491827)
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    Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah (55602206500)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Moka, Nagabhishek (35764778400)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
    ;
    Moosavi, Mohammad Amin (8677868300)
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    Moradi, Yousef (55338348700)
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    Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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    Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana (57204560697)
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    Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100)
    ;
    Mosapour, Abbas (16425956900)
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    Mubarik, Sumaira (57202290474)
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    Mwanri, Lillian (6603154148)
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    Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074)
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    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Publication
    Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
    Kocarnik, Jonathan M. (56041211800)
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    Sur, Daniel (57194064798)
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    Szerencsés, Viktória (57224626460)
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    Szócska, Miklós (13410278600)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400)
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    Tadbiri, Hooman (57138410000)
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    Takahashi, Ken (55741242600)
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    Talaat, Iman M. (7801465176)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Tat, Vivian Y. (57221326673)
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    Tedla, Bemnet Amare A. (57211142920)
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    Tefera, Yonas Getaye (56043059700)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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    Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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    Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293)
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    Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304)
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    Thapar, Rekha (36337431900)
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    Thavamani, Aravind (57202135529)
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    Thoguluva Chandrasekar, Viveksandeep (57207827433)
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    Thomas, Nihal (7401830494)
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    Tohidinik, Hamid Reza (56875390400)
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    Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Traini, Eugenio (57211137081)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536)
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    Tran, Mai Thi Ngoc (57225047867)
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    Tripathy, Jaya Prasad (55290251600)
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    Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Ullah, Saif (57219395828)
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    Umapathi, Krishna Kishore (57202507397)
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    Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Vacante, Marco (23037085900)
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    Vaezi, Maryam (55644006900)
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    Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel (57356986200)
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    Velazquez, Diana Zuleika (57221604940)
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    Veroux, Massimiliano (7003920425)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Volovici, Victor (56493195800)
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    Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wamai, Richard G. (23969762700)
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    Ward, Paul (7402101951)
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    Wen, Yi Feng (57219805195)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)
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    Yadav, Lalit (57211483937)
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    Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100)
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    Yang, Lin (57189045362)
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    Yaya, Sanni (55191139800)
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    Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034)
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    Yeshaw, Yigizie (57197818606)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yousefi, Zabihollah (9743306100)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yuce, Deniz (57514476300)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)
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    Zare, Fariba (57189627158)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491)
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    Zhang, Jianrong (56966801100)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zhou, Linghui (57200969310)
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    Zhu, Cong (57215121592)
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    Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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    Zimmermann, Ivan R. (55907922000)
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    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
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    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Publication
    Child and adolescent health from 1990 to 2015: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2015 study
    (2017)
    Kassebaum, Nicholas (57202562224)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95%UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored. © 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
    (2018)
    Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400)
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    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858)
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    Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdela, Jemal (57200613000)
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    Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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    Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900)
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    Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816)
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    Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100)
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    Abebe, Molla (57211131124)
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    Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719)
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    Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573)
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    Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598)
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    Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002)
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    Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877)
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    Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637)
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    Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700)
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    Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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    Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600)
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    Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381)
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    Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853)
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    Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)
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    Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000)
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    Adib, Mina G. (57204560513)
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    Admasie, Amha (56609274200)
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    Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455)
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    Alla, Francois (6701580827)
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    Alonso, Jordi (7403482329)
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    Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651)
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    Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691)
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    Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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    Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar (6505846919)
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    Castle, Chris D. (57196079840)
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    Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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    Ellingsen, Christian Lycke (7801360950)
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    Er, Benjamin (57204568328)
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    Faro, Andre (36770969600)
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    Farzaei, Mohammad Hosein (36458335600)
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    Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000)
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    Futran, Neal D. (35554564000)
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    Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168)
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    Garcia-Gordillo, Miguel A. (55930749500)
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    Gardner, William M. (57204566870)
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    Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917)
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    Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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    GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
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    Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2017)
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    Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584)
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    Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789)
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    Updike, Rachel (57204698680)
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    Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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    Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289)
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    Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500)
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    Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405)
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    Yakob, Bereket (57203811497)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278)
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    Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
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    Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900)
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    Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900)
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    Zhang, Xueying (56283378700)
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    Zipkin, Ben (57200737130)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specifc mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods: We estimated cause-specifc deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specifc causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifc deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16 - age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL signifcantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the fve leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a fner level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and confict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might refect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which efective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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    Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
    (2018)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Walson, Judd L. (57203254111)
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    Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)
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    Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)
    Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2019)
    Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957)
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    Nichols, Emma (57205756163)
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    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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    Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518)
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    Beghi, Ettore (7004809655)
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    Blake, Natacha (57204638181)
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    Culpepper, William J. (36130126400)
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    Dorsey, E Ray (23102496300)
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    Elbaz, Alexis (7003618656)
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    Ellenbogen, Richard G. (7007098380)
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    Fisher, James L. (7404013876)
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    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
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    Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076)
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    Glennie, Linda (6508220161)
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    James, Spencer L. (57202557998)
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    Johnson, Catherine Owens (57212301236)
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    Kassebaum, Nicholas J. (57202562224)
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    Logroscino, Giancarlo (7004888005)
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    Marin, Benoît (8436867400)
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    Mountjoy-Venning, W Cliff (57204289549)
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    Seedat, Soraya (7003445887)
    ;
    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
    ;
    Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500)
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    Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shakir, Raad A. (55374140100)
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    Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415)
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    Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127)
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    Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200)
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    Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000)
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    She, Jun (57209122131)
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    Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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    Sheth, Kevin N. (57212863894)
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    Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400)
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    Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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    Siabani, Soraya (25227131300)
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    Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539)
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    Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778)
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    Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200)
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    Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256)
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    Silva, João Pedro (57204703526)
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    Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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    Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609)
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    Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500)
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    Smith, Mari (57195484737)
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    Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080)
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    Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221)
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    Soofi, Moslem (56373891000)
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    Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400)
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    Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000)
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    Stein, Dan J. (55769747595)
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    Stein, Murray B. (7402996817)
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    Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000)
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    Sufiyan, Mu’Awiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Sylaja, Pn (12787344300)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Te Ao, Braden James (55480837300)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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    Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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    Temsah, Omar (57204559820)
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    Thakur, Jarnail Singh (57204002123)
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    Thrift, Amanda G. (7004824524)
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    Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
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    Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel (16242320900)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536)
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    Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565)
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    Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442)
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    Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075)
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    Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Vasanthan, Rajagopalan (57224273423)
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    Veisani, Yousef (55370882600)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
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    Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900)
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    Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871)
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    Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100)
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    Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
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    Weiss, Jordan (57195982912)
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    Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)
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    Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700)
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    Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)
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    Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509)
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    Wolfe, Charles D A. (57202754705)
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    Xu, Gelin (57203583113)
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    Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896)
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    Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000)
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    Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304)
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    Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57204849530)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yisma, Engida (55556060700)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
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    Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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    Zare, Zohreh (35436578700)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J L. (55481130700)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2016 a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study global burden of disease cancer collaboration
    (2018)
    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
    ;
    Akinyemiju, Tomi F. (57202561503)
    ;
    Al Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
    ;
    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
    ;
    Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700)
    ;
    Allen, Christine (57200170678)
    ;
    Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255)
    ;
    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
    ;
    Amini, Erfan (35073393800)
    ;
    Anderson, Benjamin O. (22937050900)
    ;
    Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
    ;
    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
    ;
    Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal (57203681037)
    ;
    Assadi, Reza (57203677411)
    ;
    Atey, Tesfay Me Hari (57209784978)
    ;
    Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100)
    ;
    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
    ;
    Saleem, Huda Omerba (57211004875)
    ;
    Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
    ;
    Bennett, James R. (59110116800)
    ;
    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
    ;
    Bhakta, Nickhill (55503867200)
    ;
    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
    ;
    Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero (57207890731)
    ;
    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
    ;
    Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)
    ;
    Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine (57209706428)
    ;
    Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas (57209863533)
    ;
    Chung, Sheng-Chia (56008137900)
    ;
    Curado, Maria Paula (6603824212)
    ;
    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
    ;
    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Das Neves, José (57208073193)
    ;
    Dey, Subhojit (25958052600)
    ;
    Dharmaratne, Samath D. (57216324802)
    ;
    Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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    Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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    Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
    ;
    Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
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    Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200)
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    El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000)
    ;
    Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852)
    ;
    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    ;
    Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
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    Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam (57194550425)
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    Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
    ;
    Grosso, Giuseppe (57196998256)
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    Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
    ;
    Gyawali, Bishal (56237046200)
    ;
    Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526)
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    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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    Harvey, James (57196074369)
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    Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Heibati, Behzad (55341086000)
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    Hiluf, Molla Kahssay (57201396270)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka S. (54782692800)
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    Innos, Kaire (57217314902)
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    Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700)
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    Johnson, Sarah Charlotte (57207904886)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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    Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale (58686045600)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khan, Gulfaraz (6701635515)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein (56524167000)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kutz, Michael (57195617315)
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    Lad, Deepesh Pravinkumar (55371865400)
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    Lafranconi, Alessandra (55767061200)
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    Lan, Qing (23970641100)
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    Legesse, Yirga (57202220147)
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    Leigh, James (7202089604)
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    Linn, Shai (7102590173)
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    Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063)
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    Majeed, Azeem (7102027801)
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    Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Mantovani, Lorenzo G. (7006357517)
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    McMahon, Brian J. (56713188900)
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    Meier, Toni (36678887300)
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    Melaku, Yohannes Adama (57203122720)
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    Melku, Mulugeta (56032188500)
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    Memiah, Peter (57217207827)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188)
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    Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane (57222113213)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500)
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    Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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    Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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    Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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    Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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    Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200)
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    Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136)
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    Olagunju, Andrew Toyin (26029995700)
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    Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244)
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    Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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    Patel, Tejas (57207871841)
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    Pereira, David M. (57200690024)
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    Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900)
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    Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502)
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    Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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    Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800)
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    Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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    Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900)
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    Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917)
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    Milicevic, Milena M. Santric (57209748201)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000)
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    She, Jun (57209122131)
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    Shin, Min-Jeong (7401536640)
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    Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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    Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404)
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    Sinke, Abiy Hiruye (57195329519)
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    Sisay, Mekonnen (57193254700)
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    Sligar, Amber (57190284582)
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    Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304)
    ;
    Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
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    Tran, Tung Thanh (57199423355)
    ;
    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
    ;
    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
    ;
    Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000)
    ;
    Yimer, Nigus Bililign (57216264444)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700)
    ;
    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    IMPORTANCE: The increasing burden due tocancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) GlobalAction Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallestincrease was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause ofcancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control. © 2018 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2016 a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study global burden of disease cancer collaboration
    (2018)
    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
    ;
    Akinyemiju, Tomi F. (57202561503)
    ;
    Al Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
    ;
    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
    ;
    Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700)
    ;
    Allen, Christine (57200170678)
    ;
    Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255)
    ;
    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
    ;
    Amini, Erfan (35073393800)
    ;
    Anderson, Benjamin O. (22937050900)
    ;
    Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
    ;
    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
    ;
    Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal (57203681037)
    ;
    Assadi, Reza (57203677411)
    ;
    Atey, Tesfay Me Hari (57209784978)
    ;
    Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100)
    ;
    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
    ;
    Saleem, Huda Omerba (57211004875)
    ;
    Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
    ;
    Bennett, James R. (59110116800)
    ;
    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
    ;
    Bhakta, Nickhill (55503867200)
    ;
    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
    ;
    Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero (57207890731)
    ;
    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
    ;
    Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)
    ;
    Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine (57209706428)
    ;
    Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas (57209863533)
    ;
    Chung, Sheng-Chia (56008137900)
    ;
    Curado, Maria Paula (6603824212)
    ;
    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
    ;
    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Das Neves, José (57208073193)
    ;
    Dey, Subhojit (25958052600)
    ;
    Dharmaratne, Samath D. (57216324802)
    ;
    Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
    ;
    Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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    Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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    Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
    ;
    Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200)
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    El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000)
    ;
    Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852)
    ;
    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
    ;
    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    ;
    Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
    ;
    Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam (57194550425)
    ;
    Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
    ;
    Grosso, Giuseppe (57196998256)
    ;
    Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
    ;
    Gyawali, Bishal (56237046200)
    ;
    Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526)
    ;
    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
    ;
    Harvey, James (57196074369)
    ;
    Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Heibati, Behzad (55341086000)
    ;
    Hiluf, Molla Kahssay (57201396270)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
    ;
    Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
    ;
    Ilesanmi, Olayinka S. (54782692800)
    ;
    Innos, Kaire (57217314902)
    ;
    Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
    ;
    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700)
    ;
    Johnson, Sarah Charlotte (57207904886)
    ;
    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
    ;
    Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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    Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale (58686045600)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khan, Gulfaraz (6701635515)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein (56524167000)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kutz, Michael (57195617315)
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    Lad, Deepesh Pravinkumar (55371865400)
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    Lafranconi, Alessandra (55767061200)
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    Lan, Qing (23970641100)
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    Legesse, Yirga (57202220147)
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    Leigh, James (7202089604)
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    Linn, Shai (7102590173)
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    Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063)
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    Majeed, Azeem (7102027801)
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    Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Mantovani, Lorenzo G. (7006357517)
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    McMahon, Brian J. (56713188900)
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    Meier, Toni (36678887300)
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    Melaku, Yohannes Adama (57203122720)
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    Melku, Mulugeta (56032188500)
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    Memiah, Peter (57217207827)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188)
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    Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane (57222113213)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500)
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    Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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    Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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    Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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    Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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    Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200)
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    Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136)
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    Olagunju, Andrew Toyin (26029995700)
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    Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244)
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    Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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    Patel, Tejas (57207871841)
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    Pereira, David M. (57200690024)
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    Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900)
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    Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502)
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    Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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    Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800)
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    Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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    Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900)
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    Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917)
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    Milicevic, Milena M. Santric (57209748201)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000)
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    She, Jun (57209122131)
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    Shin, Min-Jeong (7401536640)
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    Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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    Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404)
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    Sinke, Abiy Hiruye (57195329519)
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    Sisay, Mekonnen (57193254700)
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    Sligar, Amber (57190284582)
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    Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304)
    ;
    Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
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    Tran, Tung Thanh (57199423355)
    ;
    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
    ;
    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
    ;
    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
    ;
    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
    ;
    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
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    Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000)
    ;
    Yimer, Nigus Bililign (57216264444)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700)
    ;
    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    IMPORTANCE: The increasing burden due tocancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) GlobalAction Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. OBJECTIVE: To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallestincrease was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause ofcancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control. © 2018 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 32 cancer groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration
    (2017)
    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
    ;
    Allen, Christine (57200170678)
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    Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423)
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    Barregard, Lars (57226221232)
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    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300)
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    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
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    Dicker, Daniel J. (57196026676)
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    Chimed-Orchir, Odgerel (57217262222)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Fleming, Tom (57222727747)
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    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (57202562738)
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    Hancock, Jamie (57202975481)
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    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
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    Hunter-Merrill, Rachel (36671231500)
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    Huynh, Chantal (57202556112)
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    Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
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    Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kutz, Michael (57195617315)
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    Lan, Qing (56682598900)
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    Larson, Heidi J. (57223681247)
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    Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    MacIntyre, Michael F. (57202561757)
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    Marczak, Laurie (57200295553)
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    Marquez, Neal (57200287617)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Pinho, Christine (57212482983)
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    Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917)
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    Sandar, Logan (57202561352)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Schwartz, Stephen M. (57199222173)
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    Shackelford, Katya A. (57202959163)
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    Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900)
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    Stanaway, Jeff (57201210928)
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    Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084)
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    Sun, Jiandong (55547135892)
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    Takahashi, Ken (55741242600)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Wagner, Joseph A. (56990441500)
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    Wang, Haidong (16507828100)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012)
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    Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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    Alabed, Samer (58021637200)
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    Alam, Noore K. (57202437697)
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    Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed (57190287615)
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    Alem, Girma (57219674356)
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    Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528)
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    Ali, Raghib (57196506541)
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    Amare, Azmeraw (57202220009)
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    Amoako, Yaw (44960986700)
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    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
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    Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800)
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    Bernabé, Eduardo (57194696150)
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    Binagwaho, Agnes (8314417100)
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    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos (35769124700)
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    Chiang, Peggy (59846886500)
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    Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488)
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    Choi, Jee-Young (59890752700)
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    Cowie, Benjamin (57202566182)
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    Das Neves, José (57208073193)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath (57216324802)
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    Dhillon, Preet (57201002943)
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    Ding, Eric (54413849800)
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    Driscoll, Tim (7005928308)
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    Fernandes, Joao (35274726800)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566)
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    Gebru, Alemseged (57196196083)
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    Gopalani, Sameer (57190277891)
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    Hailu, Alemayehu (57225733572)
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    Horino, Masako (57195769276)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Husseini, Abdullatif (57221681109)
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    Huybrechts, Inge (13406113100)
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    Inoue, Manami (57202880842)
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    Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    James, Spencer (57202557998)
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    Jee, Sun Ha (16039275900)
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    Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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    Kedir, Muktar Sano (57226235199)
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    Khader, Yousef S. (55654192600)
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    Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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    Kim, Daniel (57223019104)
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    Leigh, James (7202089604)
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    Linn, Shai (7102590173)
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    Lunevicius, Raimundas (57216165063)
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    El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755)
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    Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102)
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    Markos, Desalegn (57210741352)
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    Melaku, Yohannes A. (57203122720)
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    Meles, Kidanu G (57951018400)
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    Mendoza, Walter (57216905642)
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    Mengiste, Desalegn Tadese (57196316791)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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    Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300)
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    Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623)
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    Nand, Devina (55575672100)
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    Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771)
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    Nolte, Sandra (24073274400)
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    Ogbo, Felix A. (57217186813)
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    Oladimeji, Kelechi E. (57194580686)
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    Oren, Eyal (36815569400)
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    Pa, Mahesh (57212735186)
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    Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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    Pereira, David M (57200690024)
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    Plass, Dietrich (57217142114)
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    Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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    Radfar, Amir (57194428768)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092)
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    Søreide, Kjetil (9233319000)
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    Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    She, Jun (57209122131)
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    Shiue, Ivy (35811219800)
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    Shore, Hirbo Roba (57200684844)
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    Shrime, Mark G. (57221973854)
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    So, Samuel (7102397384)
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    Soneji, Samir (57204096389)
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    Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148)
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    Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127)
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    Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861)
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    Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920)
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    Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304)
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    Thakur, J.S. (57204002123)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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    Chudi Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. (57194422038)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
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    Wubshet Terefe, Mamo (57194067610)
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    Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309)
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    Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57222997212)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
    ;
    Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922)
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    Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
    ;
    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet. Copyright 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years for 32 cancer groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration
    (2017)
    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
    ;
    Allen, Christine (57200170678)
    ;
    Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423)
    ;
    Barregard, Lars (57226221232)
    ;
    Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300)
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    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
    ;
    Dicker, Daniel J. (57196026676)
    ;
    Chimed-Orchir, Odgerel (57217262222)
    ;
    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
    ;
    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
    ;
    Fleming, Tom (57222727747)
    ;
    Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (57202562738)
    ;
    Hancock, Jamie (57202975481)
    ;
    Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200)
    ;
    Hunter-Merrill, Rachel (36671231500)
    ;
    Huynh, Chantal (57202556112)
    ;
    Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
    ;
    Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
    ;
    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
    ;
    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kutz, Michael (57195617315)
    ;
    Lan, Qing (56682598900)
    ;
    Larson, Heidi J. (57202559142)
    ;
    Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300)
    ;
    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
    ;
    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
    ;
    MacIntyre, Michael F. (57202561757)
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    Marczak, Laurie (57200295553)
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    Marquez, Neal (57200287617)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Pinho, Christine (57212482983)
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    Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917)
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    Sandar, Logan (57202561352)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Schwartz, Stephen M. (57199222173)
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    Shackelford, Katya A. (57202959163)
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    Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900)
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    Stanaway, Jeff (57201210928)
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    Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084)
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    Sun, Jiandong (55547135892)
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    Takahashi, Ken (55741242600)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Wagner, Joseph A. (56990441500)
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    Wang, Haidong (16507828100)
    ;
    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012)
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    Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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    Alabed, Samer (58021637200)
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    Alam, Noore K. (57202437697)
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    Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed (57190287615)
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    Alem, Girma (57219674356)
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    Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528)
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    Ali, Raghib (57196506541)
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    Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720)
    ;
    Amare, Azmeraw (57202220009)
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    Amoako, Yaw (44960986700)
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    Artaman, Al (57217223811)
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    Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800)
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    Atnafu, Niguse (57140833400)
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    Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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    Saleem, Huda Ba (57211004875)
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    Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Bensenor, Isabela (7004830338)
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    Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735)
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    Bernabé, Eduardo (57194696150)
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    Betsu, Balem (57196316128)
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    Binagwaho, Agnes (8314417100)
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    Boneya, Dube (57194067231)
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    Campos-Nonato, Ismael (57203424784)
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    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos (35769124700)
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    Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)
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    Chiang, Peggy (59846886500)
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    Chibueze, Chioma (57244744000)
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    Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488)
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    Choi, Jee-Young (59890752700)
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    Cowie, Benjamin (57202566182)
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    Damtew, Solomon (58991324800)
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    Das Neves, José (57208073193)
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    Dey, Suhojit (25958052600)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath (57216324802)
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    Dhillon, Preet (57201002943)
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    Ding, Eric (54413849800)
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    Driscoll, Tim (7005928308)
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    Ekwueme, Donatus (56664774000)
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    Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852)
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    Farvid, Maryam (8273562500)
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    Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
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    Fernandes, Joao (35274726800)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566)
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    Gebru, Alemseged (57196196083)
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    Gopalani, Sameer (57190277891)
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    Hailu, Alemayehu (57225733572)
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    Horino, Masako (57195769276)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Huybrechts, Inge (13406113100)
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    Inoue, Manami (57202880842)
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    Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
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    James, Spencer (57202557998)
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    El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755)
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    Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102)
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    Markos, Desalegn (57210741352)
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    Meles, Kidanu G (57951018400)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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    Miller, Ted R. (7403948600)
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    Ogbo, Felix A. (57217186813)
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    Oladimeji, Kelechi E. (57194580686)
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    Oren, Eyal (36815569400)
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    Pa, Mahesh (57212735186)
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    Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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    Pereira, David M (57200690024)
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    Plass, Dietrich (57217142114)
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    Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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    Radfar, Amir (57194428768)
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    Rafay, Anwar (57212263323)
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    Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092)
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    Søreide, Kjetil (9233319000)
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    Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    She, Jun (57209122131)
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    Shore, Hirbo Roba (57200684844)
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    Shrime, Mark G. (57221973854)
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    So, Samuel (7102397384)
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    Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148)
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    Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127)
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    Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861)
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    Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920)
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    Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304)
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    Thakur, J.S. (57204002123)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584)
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    Chudi Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. (57194422038)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947)
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    Wubshet Terefe, Mamo (57194067610)
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    Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309)
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    Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57222997212)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922)
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    Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet. Copyright 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2017)
    Gakidou, Emmanuela (57202567277)
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    Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455)
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    Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018)
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    Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598)
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    Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700)
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    Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148)
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    Abyu, Gebre Yitayih (57190277969)
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    Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508)
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    Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto (57196074547)
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    Baumgarner, Blair R. (57208560663)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero (57207890731)
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    Cárdenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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    Carrero, Juan Jesus (16834646800)
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    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
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    Catalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)
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    Cercy, Kelly (57208777587)
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    Chang, Hsing-Yi (7407523087)
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    Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086)
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    Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel (57217262222)
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    Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe (56761895800)
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    Chitheer, Abdulaal A. (57209314488)
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    Christensen, Hanne (57202099623)
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    Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas (57209863533)
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    Cirillo, Massimo (35247478400)
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    Cohen, Aaron J. (7404780942)
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    Comfort, Haley (57218875721)
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    Cooper, Cyrus (36041345700)
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    Cornaby, Leslie (57191837051)
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    Criqui, Michael H. (7005209601)
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    Crump, John A. (57202595111)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Das Neves, José (57208073193)
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    Davey, Gail (7102000901)
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    Davitoiu, Dragos V. (57202555163)
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    Davletov, Kairat (6602803024)
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    Degenhardt, Louisa (7004040033)
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    Dellavalle, Robert P. (7003806771)
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    Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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    Deshpande, Aniruddha (57202673979)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath D. (57216324802)
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    Ding, Eric L. (54413849800)
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    Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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    Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094)
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    Dokova, Klara (57201523771)
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    Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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    Dorsey, E. Ray (23102496300)
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    Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308)
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    Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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    Duncan, Bruce Bartholow (35476478500)
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    Duncan, Sarah (57199417426)
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    Ebert, Natalie (20333943200)
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    Ebrahimi, Hedyeh (57195329214)
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    El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad (54908919000)
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    Enayati, Ahmadali (6507139052)
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    Endries, Aman Yesuf (57216324852)
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    Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich (7006796196)
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    Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676)
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    Eshrati, Babak (16030619200)
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    Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100)
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    Estep, Kara (57216550964)
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    Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino (57195414019)
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    Farinha, Carla Sofia E. Sa (57190279273)
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    Faro, André (36770969600)
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    Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
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    Fay, Kairsten (57217858217)
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    Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Fernandes, João C. (35274726800)
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    Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907)
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    Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa (57222562476)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757)
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    Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567)
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    Foigt, Nataliya (57216998893)
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    Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
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    Frostad, Joseph J. (57222306717)
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    Fullman, Nancy (57211064970)
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    Fürst, Thomas (57208431345)
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    Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000)
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    Ganji, Morsaleh (57211874807)
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    Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168)
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    Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917)
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    Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500)
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    Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh (35085056400)
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    Hawley, Caitlin (57196078801)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hedayati, Mohammad T. (23979915700)
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    Hendrie, Delia (6602071966)
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    Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz (36941085200)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400)
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    Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000)
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    Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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    Zavala-Arciniega, Luis (57196083471)
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    Zhang, Xueying (56283378700)
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    Zimsen, Stephanie Raman M. (57196078433)
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    Zipkin, Ben (57200737130)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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    Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990-2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition
    (2015)
    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423)
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    Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598)
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    Aboyans, Victor (56214736500)
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    Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401)
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    Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726)
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    Zaki, Maysaa E. (57203666922)
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    Zhao, Yong (59798995400)
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    Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300)
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    Zonies, David (6507066392)
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    Zou, Xiaonong (57216284159)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition - in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden - is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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    Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2017)
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    Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726)
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    Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278)
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    Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
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    Zhang, Xueying (56283378700)
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    Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300)
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    Zipkin, Ben (57200737130)
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    Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700)
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    Adedji, I.A. (57207919805)
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    Murdoch, M.E. (57202097865)
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    Bryane, C.E.G. (57207920084)
    Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
    (2018)
    Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)
    ;
    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858)
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    Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
    ;
    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
    ;
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
    (2015)
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    Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922)
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    Zhang, Yong (59821743000)
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    Zhu, Jun (56215097100)
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    Zunt, Joseph R. (6602746216)
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    Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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    Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2017)
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    Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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    Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031)
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    Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928)
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    Steel, Nicholas (6603791873)
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    Stein, Dan J. (55769747595)
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    Stein, Murray B. (7402996817)
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    Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084)
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    Steiner, Timothy J. (16837503200)
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    Steinke, Sabine (57203777687)
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    Stokes, Mark Andrew (7102859000)
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    Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390)
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    Strub, Bryan (57211781720)
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    Subart, Michelle (57194140438)
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    Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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    Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan (57195295816)
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    Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557)
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    Sur, Patrick J. (57218360398)
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    Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757)
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    Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Taffere, Getachew Redae (59807215200)
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    Takala, Jukka S. (35425471300)
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    Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756)
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    Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239)
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    Taylor, Hugh R. (55550572900)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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    Temam Shifa, Girma (57217000284)
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    Updike, Rachel (57204698680)
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    Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)
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    Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289)
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    Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500)
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    Varughese, Santosh (22942817500)
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    Vasankari, Tommi (23096834700)
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    Venkatesh, S. (57201538443)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)
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    Vidavalur, Ramesh (57201445172)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239)
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    Xu, Gelin (57203583113)
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    Yadgir, Simon (57192837280)
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    Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900)
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    Yakob, Bereket (57203811497)
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    Yan, Lijing L. (35933756700)
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    Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200)
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    Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295)
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    Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590)
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    Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900)
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    Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800)
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    Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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    Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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    Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922)
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    Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278)
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    Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185)
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    Zhang, Xueying (56283378700)
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    Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200)
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    Zipkin, Ben (57200737130)
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    Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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    Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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    Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
    (2018)
    James, Spencer L. (57202557998)
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    Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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    Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)
    Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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    Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
    (2017)
    Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423)
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    Fullman, Nancy (57211064970)
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    Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748)
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    Bollyky, Thomas (36677045500)
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    McKee, Martin (7202304775)
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    Nolte, Ellen (7005556106)
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    Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441)
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    Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi (56677630600)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
    Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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    Publication
    Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    (2018)
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    Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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