Browsing by Author "Dicker, Daniel (57196026676)"
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Publication Child and adolescent health from 1990 to 2015: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2015 study(2017) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas (57202562224) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Olsen, Helen Elizabeth (57203080494) ;Thomas, Katie (56239717800) ;Pinho, Christine (57212482983) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Ferrari, Alize (57195348907) ;Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lopez, Alan (7401455668) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Salomon, Joshua (56745638600) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hasen (57207943858) ;Abbas, Kaja (57190285707) ;Damtew, Solomon Abrha (58991324800) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Antonio, Carl A.T. (55247644500) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (57200155811) ;Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala (55598298700) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Betsu, Balem Demtsu (57196316128) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Baye, Estifanos (57211220426) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernal, Oscar Alberto (44060935600) ;Beyene, Addisu Shunu (57209036705) ;Biadgilign, Sibhatu (57195448180) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Boyce, Cheryl Anne (7005306160) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700) ;Catala-Lopez, Ferran (57202553733) ;Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086) ;Chitheer, Abdulaal A. (57209314488) ;Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine (57209706428) ;Ciobanu, Liliana G. (57201603453) ;Crump, John (57202595111) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Dellavalle, Robert P. (7003806771) ;Deribew, Amare (25625914400) ;DeVeber, Gabrielle (57204345472) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Ding, Eric L. (54413849800) ;Dubey, Manisha (57219898654) ;Endries, Amanuel Yesuf (57216324852) ;Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676) ;Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino (57195414019) ;Faro, Andre (36770969600) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Joao C. (35274726800) ;Fijabi, Daniel Obadare (56133163100) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Flor, Luisa Sorio (54414102000) ;Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414) ;Franklin, Richard C. (7201428429) ;Fraser, Maya S. (57202561859) ;Frostad, Joseph J. (57222306717) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebru, Alemseged Aregay (57196196083) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Yihdego, Mahari Gidey (57194541914) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed (57192378390) ;Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo (57202568734) ;Gizachew, Tessema Assefa (57194547996) ;Glaser, Elizabeth (56133254300) ;Gold, Audra L. (57194129483) ;Goldberg, Ellen (57191842703) ;Gona, Philimon (57219703762) ;Goto, Atsushi (36339255500) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Jiang, Guohong (56984997300) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hijar, Martha (57216555124) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700) ;Jayaraman, Sudha P. (57204716526) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Jibat, Tariku (57212368830) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Jonas, Jost (7202492953) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kawakami, Norito (35377339000) ;Keiyoro, Peter N. (57203177260) ;Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A. Ahmad (57199100665) ;Kieling, Christian (57218820714) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038) ;Knibbs, Luke D. (16313525200) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krohn, Kristopher J. (57194138806) ;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655) ;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk (57204528360) ;Kulikoff, Rachel (57192649345) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Lam, Hilton Y. (35484312600) ;Larson, Heidi J. (57223681247) ;Larsson, Anders (56381985300) ;Laryea, Dennis Odai (57201281307) ;Leung, Janni (57214397752) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Lo, Loon-Tzian (57214204231) ;Lo, Warren D. (8964933400) ;Looker, Katharine J. (57202553673) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Shifti, Desalegn Markos (57210741352) ;Mazidi, Mohsen (57203231746) ;Meaney, Peter A. (57208635601) ;Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam (57951018400) ;Memiah, Peter (57217207827) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistie, Mubarek Abera (56045752700) ;Mengistu, Gebremichael Welday (57225351270) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mock, Charles (7005790549) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Mueller, Ulrich (8512347500) ;Nagata, Chie (50061824800) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771) ;Nsoesie, Elaine (57222955478) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko O. (57218504682) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Polanczyk, Guilherme V. (6507552141) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rankin, Zane (57200251742) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Roba, Hirbo Shore (57200684844) ;Rojas-Rueda, David (57203642966) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Mohammed, Muktar Sano Kedir (57226235199) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57220001947) ;Schottker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;She, June (59865584200) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Singh, Jasvinder (7404421736) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Smith, Alison (57191843859) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar (57212263335) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taye, Bineyam (57210469900) ;Teeple, Stephanie (57191850890) ;Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw (57216998561) ;Shifa, Girma Temam (57211793093) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Thomas, Bernadette (7401507541) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Uthman, Olalekan (23026328100) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57189653936) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert (7006079405) ;Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam (57194550425) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Vos, Theo (57223885848)IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95%UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored. © 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300) ;Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000) ;Adib, Mina G. (57204560513) ;Admasie, Amha (56609274200) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700) ;Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alebel, Animut (57195961302) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, Francois (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Alonso, Jordi (7403482329) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300) ;Amini, Erfan (35073393800) ;Ammar, Walid (57208159281) ;Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700) ;Anber, Nahla Hamed (57202351369) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Androudi, Sofia (6603286512) ;Animut, Megbaru Debalkie (57204558749) ;Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282) ;Ansari, Hossein (56919376000) ;Ansha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500) ;Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526) ;Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Arora, Amit (36676951800) ;Arora, Monika (8700408200) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay (57203306449) ;Ataro, Zerihun (57204563849) ;Atique, Suleman (56505419100) ;Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900) ;Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907) ;Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A. (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700) ;Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631) ;Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100) ;Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000) ;Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Badali, Hamid (15123728900) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615) ;Ballesteros, Katherine E. (57207968050) ;Banach, Maciej (22936699500) ;Banerjee, Kajori (57193448932) ;Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518) ;Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975) ;Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100) ;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Barquera, Simon (6601928375) ;Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675) ;Bassat, Quique (23024176000) ;Basu, Sanjay (9335409500) ;Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336) ;Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw (57192710748) ;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad (57205912040) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Beghi, Ettore (7004809655) ;Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696) ;Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000) ;Bejot, Yannick (14038743100) ;Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941) ;Belachew, Abate Bekele (57201657313) ;Belay, Ezra (56372891800) ;Belay, Yihalem Abebe (57202972558) ;Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450) ;Bello, Aminu K. (12759638700) ;Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berman, Adam E. (7201959854) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200) ;Bertolacci, Gregory J. (57204558417) ;Beuran, Mircea (25229806700) ;Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763) ;Bhalla, Ashish (57202555305) ;Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200) ;Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep (55643126300) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Biadgo, Belete (55672090500) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Bijani, Ali (23134684900) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Bilano, Ver (57189663783) ;Bililign, Nigus (57216264444) ;Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat (55408904500) ;Bisanzio, Donal (57196394991) ;Biswas, Tuhin (59824959000) ;Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381) ;Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500) ;Borschmann, Rohan (35091024300) ;Bosetti, Cristina (7005452936) ;Bozorgmehr, Kayvan (34767823500) ;Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651) ;Brant, Luisa C. (40160889400) ;Brayne, Carol (57210386759) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. (6603260895) ;Brenner, Hermann (7201832825) ;Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334) ;Britton, Gabrielle (7004997832) ;Brugha, Traolach (35370057100) ;Busse, Reinhard (35589070800) ;Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739) ;Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691) ;Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. 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(7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2015) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Davis, Adrian (7404296836) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Abbasoglu Ozgoren, Ayse (56133944200) ;Abdalla, Safa (7005715928) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdel Aziz, Muna I. (56013017300) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abraham, Biju (57202568691) ;Abraham, Jerry P. (57203894879) ;Abuabara, Katrina E. (6507310339) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adelekan, Ademola (57216109261) ;Ademi, Zanfina (32867460300) ;Adofo, Koranteng (57216996837) ;Adou, Arséne Kouablan (56531895000) ;Adsuar, José C. 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(56541894900)Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. 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(57196075669) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Purcell, Caroline (56203575500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rankin, Zane (57200251742) ;Rao, Puja C. (57191835613) ;Rath, Goura Kishor (35444818200) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Ray, Sarah E. (57196078769) ;Rehm, Jürgen (7102718648) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reitsma, Marissa B. (57208766315) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Rezaei, Satar (55273796300) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (57226200664) ;Rokni, Mohammad Bagher (36119103200) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Rizwan, S.A. 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(57202594826) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamsipour, Mansour (57197846052) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352) ;Shey, Muki (10138820000) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shields, Chloe (57196083232) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirude, Shreya (57216599051) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shoman, Haitham (57208324664) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Singh, Abhishek (59639211800) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Smith, Alison (57191843859) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr H.A. (57202564080) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. 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(57204092789) ;Updike, Rachel (57204698680) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289) ;Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wallin, Mitchell T. (57201573668) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whetter, Brian (57201998502) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Woldeyes, Belete Getahun (57195329524) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xiao, Qingyang (59797114300) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (57212400558) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specifc mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods: We estimated cause-specifc deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specifc causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifc deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16 - age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL signifcantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the fve leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a fner level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and confict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might refect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which efective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. 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(57204703404) ;Shukla, Sharvari Rahul (55760856000)Si, Si (56706979500)Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(7202971580) ;Martinez, Gabriel (57208099155) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio (57204796807) ;Martopullo, Ira (57193550189) ;Marz, Winfried (57220877383) ;Marzan, Melvin B. (57200737144) ;Masci, Joseph R. (56787746300) ;Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard (55859007400) ;Mathur, Manu Raj (55270329300) ;Mathur, Prashant (7201845777) ;Matzopoulos, Richard (57203438721) ;Maulik, Pallab K. (7005919685) ;Mazidi, Mohsen (57200232563) ;McAlinden, Colm (35325278500) ;McGrath, John J. (57202560550) ;McKee, Martin (7202304775) ;McMahon, Brian J. (56713188900) ;Mehata, Suresh (57211773159) ;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864) ;Mehrotra, Ravi (7203045563) ;Mehta, Kala M. (7201939418) ;Mehta, Varshil (57158753300) ;Mekonnen, Tefera C. (57193872649) ;Melese, Addisu (56901393600) ;Melku, Mulugeta (56032188500) ;Memiah, Peter T.N. (57217207827) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802) ;Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Mereta, Seid Tiku (57203628211) ;Meretoja, Atte (12775885500) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane (57222113213) ;Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900) ;Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689) ;Millear, Anoushka I. (57204879537) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Miller-Petrie, Molly Katherine (56387657900) ;Mini, G.K. (12800865800) ;Mirabi, Parvaneh (51864302500) ;Mirarefin, Mojde (57222113397) ;Mirica, Andreea (57188983765) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen (57202808713) ;Mitiku, Habtamu (49864023500) ;Moazen, Babak (57204324006) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadi, Moslem (56274033300) ;Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700) ;Mohammed, Mohammed A. (57196575014) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mohan, Viswanathan (57216603627) ;Mokdad, Ali H. 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(57204561394) ;Overland, Simon (23028540300) ;Owolabi, Mayowa Ojo (57222581892) ;Ozdemir, Raziye (46761319200) ;Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244) ;Pacella, Rosana (57194839077) ;Pakhale, Smita (57220937499) ;Pakhare, Abhijit P. (54383993100) ;Pakpour, Amir H. (56181056500) ;Pana, Adrian (57191837583) ;Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353) ;Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai (6701618847) ;Parisi, Andrea (57203642960) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Parry, Charles D.H. (7102561312) ;Parsian, Hadi (55991107900) ;Patel, Shanti (57072227700) ;Pati, Sanghamitra (55441302100) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao (56499299400) ;Paulson, Katherine R. (57203437789) ;Pereira, Alexandre (57292982400) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael R. (57202563610) ;Piel, Frederic B. (56866735900) ;Pigott, David M. (55320335600) ;Pillay, Julian David (57197803061) ;Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Pourshams, Akram (6507521541) ;Poustchi, Hossein (8622806500) ;Pujar, Ashwini (57204567538) ;Prakash, Swayam (57212263375) ;Prasad, Narayan (23028765700) ;Purcell, Caroline A. (56203575500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Quintana, Hedley (56835362100) ;Quistberg, D.Alex (6507023057) ;Rade, Kirankumar Waman (53264601000) ;Anwar Rafay, Amir Radfar (57194428768) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Rajsic, Sasa (57196448260) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Ranjan, Prabhat (57200595370) ;Rao, Puja C. (57191835613) ;Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Razo-Garcia, Christian (57191620919) ;Reddy, K. Srinath (35417788900) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reitsma, Marissa B. (57208766315) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Rezaei, Satar (55791003000) ;Rezaeian, Shahab (55214334100) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300) ;Riahi, Seyed Mohammad (57193205976) ;Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. (57204577960) ;Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus (57208577330) ;Roba, Kedir Teji (57203667432) ;Roberts, Nicholas L.S. (57204562597) ;Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Rostami, Ali (59144808300) ;Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500) ;Safari, Hosein (57204236925) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;De Freitas Saldanha, Raphael (57193063393) ;Saleem, Zikria (56179814800) ;Salimi, Yahya (54421017000) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Salz, Inbal (57199623777) ;Sambala, Evanson Zondani (36718133800) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Dolores Sanchez-Nino, Maria (57202569015) ;Santomauro, Damian Francesco (56912450700) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santos, Joao Vasco (57226214352) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Jose, Bruno Piassi Sao (57202052980) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo (57204744430) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Sayyah, Mehdi (10540414200) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schmidt, Maria Ines (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schottker, Ben (7006697270) ;Schutte, Aletta Elisabeth (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson (57202594826) ;Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893) ;Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900) ;Shahbazi, Mehdi (58427375600) ;Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415) ;Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay (57205232012) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Si, Si (56706979500) ;Siabani, Soraya (25227131300) ;Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200) ;Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256) ;Santos Silva, Diego Augusto (36985158000) ;Silva, Joao Pedro (7403023631) ;Da Silva, Natacha Torres (57207324515) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Singh, Prashant Kumar (57208090732) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080) ;Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221) ;Sobngwi, Eugene (6701427993) ;Soneji, Samir S. (57204096389) ;Soofi, Moslem (56373891000) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Starodubov, Vladimir I. (6701820838) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57209726581) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Stewart, Leo G. (57204565284) ;Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000) ;Subart, Michelle L. (57194140438) ;Sudaryanto, Agus (57305372500) ;Sufiyan, Mu'Awiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sur, Patrick John (57218360398) ;Sutradhar, Ipsita (57202349742) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylaja, P.N. (12787344300) ;Sylte, Dillon O. (57211183601) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E.I. (6505920990) ;Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Takahashi, Ken (55741242600) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037) ;Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Temsah, Omar (57204559820) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Teshale, Manaye Yihune (57204566390) ;Tessema, Belay (20735503600) ;Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish (54407369300) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Thrift, Amanda G. (7004824524) ;Thurston, George D. (7102270013) ;Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730) ;To, Quyen G. (55827789100) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Torre, Anna E. (57196074351) ;Tortajada-Girbes, Miguel (16242320900) ;Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536) ;Tripathi, Suryakant (57225821627) ;Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565) ;Truong, Nu Thi (57204178907) ;Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Murat Tuzcu, E. (7005951350) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzun, Selen Begum (57200327315) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Vaidya, Gaurang (55551507300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wagner, Gregory R. (57219005948) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wallin, Mitchell Taylor (57201573668) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Wassie, Molla Mesele (56499356400) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
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(7401455668)Vos, Theo (57223885848)Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age-sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6-6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0-65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0-71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9-5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5-59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7-64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3-7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6-29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non-communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition - in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden - is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adedeji, Isaac A. 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(7404421736) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Singh, Om Prakash (57207807888) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482) ;Slepak, Erica Leigh (57205356367) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr H. A. (57202564080) ;Sobngwi, Eugene (6701427993) ;Soljak, Michael (57202841728) ;Sorensen, Reed J. D. (57196918748) ;Sousa, Tatiane Cristina Moraes (57195329460) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jefrey D. (57201210928) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steinke, Sabine (57203777687) ;Stokes, Mark Andrew (7102859000) ;Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390) ;Strub, Bryan (57211781720) ;Subart, Michelle (57194140438) ;Sufyan, Muawiyyah Babale (57203947220) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick J. (57218360398) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylte, Dillon (57211183601) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E. I. (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tafere, Getachew Redae (57195757687) ;Takala, Jukka S. (35425471300) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tanne, David (7006302238) ;Tarekegn, Yihunie L. (57202809688) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Taylor, Hugh R. 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(57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yihdego, Mahari Gidey (57194541914) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700) ;Adedji, I.A. (57207919805) ;Murdoch, M.E. (57202097865)Bryane, C.E.G. (57207920084)Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2014) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700) ;Ortblad, Katrina F. (57190076688) ;Guinovart, Caterina (23024511900) ;Lim, Stephen S. (7404081544) ;Wolock, Timothy M. (57210784314) ;Roberts, D. Allen (57188657365) ;Dansereau, Emily A. (57203833128) ;Graetz, Nicholas (56276346000) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Brown, Jonathan C. (57212760159) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Duber, Herbert C. (55522646900) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Heuton, Kyle R. (57202568555) ;Foreman, Kyle (57209064414) ;Phillips, David E. (57202564185) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567) ;Phillips, Bryan K. (56132903100) ;Johnson, Elizabeth K. (56276328900) ;Coggeshall, Megan S. (56132969600) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Abraham, Jerry P. (57203894879) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me (57216675148) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi (56276318500) ;Adou, Arsène Kouablan (56531895000) ;Adsuar, José C. (21738958900) ;Agardh, Emilie Elisabet (57202373873) ;Akena, Dickens (36141858100) ;Al Kahbouri, Mazin J. (56132885900) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57211114684) ;Albittar, Mohammed I. (56276571900) ;Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel (35769097100) ;Alegretti, Miguel Angel (56276408300) ;Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw (57202557784) ;Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael (26326133000) ;Alhabib, Samia (57194933167) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Alla, Francois (6701580827) ;Allen, Peter J. (58444261300) ;Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255) ;Alvarez, Elena (57216675106) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amankwaa, Adansi A. (57202564178) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. 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(7007098380) ;Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich (7006796196) ;Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100) ;Faraon, Emerito Jose A. (57195414019) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520) ;Fijabi, Daniel Obadare (56133163100) ;Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. (55882758900) ;Paleo, Urbano Fra. (15053114000) ;Gaffikin, Lynne (6701866671) ;Gamkrelidze, Amiran (6506029209) ;Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho (57201341525) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gessner, Bradford D. (7005779769) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed (57192378390) ;Glaser, Elizabeth L. (56133254300) ;Gona, Philimon (57219703762) ;Goto, Atsushi (36339255500) ;Gouda, Hebe N. (57202432343) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Gupta, Rahul (56453686300) ;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261) ;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526) ;Hammami, Mouhanad (57216961083) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Harb, Hilda L. 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(57218313462) ;Kengne, Andre Pascal (7801322838) ;Keren, Andre (7005620132) ;Kereselidze, Maia (55659152900) ;Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600) ;Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan (59831217100) ;Khan, Ejaz Ahmed (57218791274) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khonelidze, Irma (57202287317) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kinge, Jonas M. (56133084600) ;Knibbs, Luke (16313525200) ;Kokubo, Yoshihiro (56155004000) ;Kosen, S. (57211346192) ;Kuate Defo, Barthelemy (6602271655) ;Kulkarni, Veena S. (57200084922) ;Kulkarni, Chanda (59869378300) ;Kumar, Kaushalendra (59070501700) ;Kumar, Ravi B. (59600303400) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Kwan, Gene F. (57194535368) ;Lai, Taavi (57196395162) ;Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun (57202406801) ;Lam, Hilton (35484312600) ;Lan, Qing (56682598900) ;Lansingh, Van C. (57194598546) ;Larson, Heidi J. (57202559142) ;Larsson, Anders (56381985300) ;Lee, Jong-Tae (57196083400) ;Leigh, James (7202089604) ;Leinsalu, Mall (6603447541) ;Leung, Ricky (56276497100) ;Li, Yichong (57218426673) ;Li, Yongmei (56147667800) ;De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira (56133968700) ;Lin, Hsien-Ho (39061859200) ;Lipshultz, Steven E. (7006950713) ;Liu, Shiwei (57209574351) ;Liu, Yang (57202561981) ;Lloyd, Belinda K. (55313086800) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro (56133788500) ;Maclachlan, Jennifer H. (55431229800) ;Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos (26643014800) ;Majdan, Marek (36147855100) ;Mapoma, Christopher Chabila (57208956832) ;Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102) ;Marzan, Melvin Barrientos (57200737144) ;Masci, Joseph R. (56787746300) ;Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq (57203849054) ;Mason-Jones, Amanda J. (7201563263) ;Mayosi, Bongani M. (35381365100) ;Mazorodze, Tasara T. (56133991100) ;McKay, Abigail Cecilia (57195257703) ;Meaney, Peter A. (57208635601) ;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864) ;Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola (56013641600) ;Melaku, Yohannes Adama (57203122720) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mills, Edward J. (7102584704) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Mola, Glen Liddell (57221824056) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Montico, Marcella (57202563609) ;Moore, Ami R. (57216303682) ;Mori, Rintaro (57072757600) ;Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora (57217223457) ;Mukaigawara, Mitsuru (57202400916) ;Murthy, Kinnari S. (57203399680) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Naidoo, Kovin S. (35564549000) ;Naldi, Luigi (7004954781) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Narayan, K.M. Venkat (56726795700) ;Nash, Denis (57203073814) ;Nejjari, Chakib (6602168304) ;Nelson, Robert G. (7404561092) ;Neupane, Sudan Prasad (55270561200) ;Newton, Charles R. (35465836500) ;Ng, Marie (36155754200) ;Nisar, Muhammad Imran (57191774461) ;Nolte, Sandra (24073274400) ;Norheim, Ole F. (7004082597) ;Nowaseb, Vincent (56067267200) ;Nyakarahuka, Luke (57216109498) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Ohkubo, Takayoshi (7201618716) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko O. (57218504682) ;Omer, Saad B. (57216065685) ;Opio, John Nelson (57200124403) ;Orisakwe, Orish Ebere (7003998930) ;Pandian, Jeyaraj D. (6701618847) ;Papachristou, Christina (7005498635) ;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J. (35769665400) ;Patten, Scott B. (57201492915) ;Paul, Vinod K. (57203044947) ;Pavlin, Boris Igor (57204224285) ;Pearce, Neil (56491440700) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Pervaiz, Aslam (57202521714) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qato, Dima (57200144916) ;Quezada, Amado D. (56536501100) ;Quistberg, D. Alex (6507023057) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Raju, Murugesan (57212263299) ;Rana, Saleem M. (57204884092) ;Razavi, Homie (57220362651) ;Reilly, Robert Quentin (56132895800) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Richardus, Jan Hendrik (7003977198) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roy, Nobhojit (7101831881) ;Sabin, Nsanzimana (57202568454) ;Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya (57214986820) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Samonte, Genesis May J. (49862062000) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson E. (57202594826) ;Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shin, Hwashin Hyun (56132914500) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shivakoti, Rupak (57202563142) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256) ;Silva, Andrea P. (59594831400) ;Simard, Edgar P. (57211913376) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Soshnikov, Sergey S. (57195195606) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi (57195644148) ;Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos (57211777127) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700) ;Talongwa, Roberto Tchio (57195568335) ;Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah (57216997115) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. (57194437700) ;Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568) ;Traebert, Jefferson (57190586198) ;Tran, Bach X. (57209107515) ;Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie (57210953239) ;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis (6701721894) ;Uchendu, Uche S. (56328470200) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Uzun, Selen Begüm (57200327315) ;Vallely, Andrew J. (21744114400) ;Vasankari, Tommi J. (57189653936) ;Venketasubramanian, N. (56804702100) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Waller, Stephen (57201445180) ;Wallin, Mitchell T. (7005704608) ;Wang, Linhong (57303731300) ;Wang, Xiao Rong (59881699400) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;White, Richard A. (57212709680) ;Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571) ;Williams, Thomas Neil (35430527200) ;Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret (57195461619) ;Wong, John Q. (56491997300) ;Xu, Gelin (14049536200) ;Yang, Yang C. (39763666500) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yentur, Gokalp Kadri (57211728019) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Jin, Kim Yun (57211086375) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Vos, Theo (57223885848)Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2015) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Bell, Brad (57191846370) ;Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia (57192900191) ;Biryukov, Stan (57195296731) ;Bolliger, Ian (57202568683) ;Charlson, Fiona (57191632086) ;Davis, Adrian (7404296836) ;Degenhardt, Louisa (7004040033) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Duan, Leilei (56150781400) ;Erskine, Holly (57202798676) ;Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957) ;Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Fleming, Thomas (57222727747) ;Graetz, Nicholas (56276346000) ;Guinovart, Caterina (23024511900) ;Haagsma, Juanita (57202571125) ;Hansen, Gillian M. (57202959410) ;Hanson, Sarah Wulf (57212263269) ;Heuton, Kyle R. 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(57202594826) ;Shackelford, Katya (57202959163) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shahraz, Saeid (57215142060) ;Levy, Teresa Shamah (55989758300) ;Shangguan, Siyi (55983936400) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352) ;Shepard, Donald S. (56425525300) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shinohara, Yukito (57203303862) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shishani, Kawkab (14025005500) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga D. (57195363778) ;Silberberg, Donald H. (57223420256) ;Simard, Edgar P. (57211913376) ;Sindi, Shireen (57209045912) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Lavanya (55823444300) ;Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Soljak, Michael (57202841728) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Soshnikov, Sergey S. (57195195606) ;Speyer, Peter (56809541200) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. 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(8222114200) ;Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo (6701742027) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Vijayakumar, Lakshmi (57202973343) ;Villalpando, Salvador (7005159171) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy V. (57211633239) ;Waller, Stephen (57201445180) ;Wallin, Mitchell T. (57201573668) ;Wan, Xia (57197110584) ;Wang, Linhong (59088832100) ;Wang, Jianli (9250575900) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Warouw, Tati S. (57202569029) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Wessells, K. Ryan (22936372700) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571) ;Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000) ;Williams, Thomas N. (35430527200) ;Woldeyohannes, Solomon M. (57195461619) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Wong, John Q. (56491997300) ;Wong, Haidong (56809533300) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Wright, Jonathan L. (55483255900) ;Wurtz, Brittany (57202555477) ;Xu, Gelin (14049536200) ;Yang, Gonghuan (57203587368) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yenesew, Muluken A. (39361108000) ;Yentur, Gokalp K. (57211728019) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Kim, Kim Yun (56809537500) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zhang, Yong (59821743000) ;Zhao, Zheng (57221109851) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Zonies, David (6507066392) ;Zunt, Joseph R. (6602746216) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adamu, Abdu Abdullahi (57202024381) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji (56598104300) ;Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar (7403190321) ;Aggarwal, Rakesh (7203024985) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar (57199100665) ;Ahmadieh, Hamid (57203677679) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Aiyar, Sneha (57216813717) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Noore (57202437697) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alasfoor, Deena (57192936248) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Ali, Raghib (57196506541) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, François (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Allen, Christine (57200170678) ;Al-Maskari, Fatma (25824744400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alsharif, Ubai (57211633255) ;Alsowaidi, Shirina (26867516400) ;Altirkawi, Khalid A. 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Sa (57190279273) ;Faro, André (36770969600) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fazeli, Mir Sohail (56579103600) ;Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957) ;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520) ;Fernandes, João C. (35274726800) ;Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907) ;Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa (57222562476) ;Filip, Irina (55570061400) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567) ;Flor, Luisa Sorio (54414102000) ;Foigt, Nataliya (57216998893) ;Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414) ;Franklin, Richard C. (7201428429) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Fürst, Thomas (57208431345) ;Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000) ;Futran, Neal D. (35554564000) ;Gakidou, Emmanuela (57202567277) ;Ganji, Morsaleh (57211874807) ;Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168) ;Gebre, Teshome (57202565005) ;Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917) ;Geleto, Ayele (57204564615) ;Gemechu, Bikila Lencha (57201195568) ;Gesesew, Hailay Abrha (56412148300) ;Gething, Peter W. 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(7102816661) ;Hao, Yuantao (57202554333) ;Harb, Hilda L. (57221443122) ;Hareri, Habtamu Abera (57195292447) ;Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903) ;Harvey, James (57196074369) ;Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh (35085056400) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hawley, Caitlin (57196078801) ;Hay, Roderick J. (56785229200) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616) ;Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz (36941085200) ;Heydarpour, Pouria (57189359029) ;Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421) ;Hoffman, Howard J. (7201677665) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800) ;Hotez, Peter J. (7004958298) ;Hoy, Damian G. (57216593652) ;Htet, Aung Soe (57202555179) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Huang, Hsiang (57202278530) ;Huynh, Chantal (57202556112) ;Iburg, Kim Moesgaard (57216814160) ;Igumbor, Ehimario Uche (26537691100) ;Ikeda, Chad (57202720108) ;Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter (57203666733) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700) ;Jassal, Simerjot K. (57190118903) ;Javanbakht, Mehdi (57204619886) ;Jayaraman, Sudha P. (57204716526) ;Jeemon, Panniyammakal (57216324831) ;Jensen, Paul N. (57224209864) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Jiang, Guohong (56984997300) ;John, Denny (57194230095) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Johnson, Sarah Charlotte (57207904886) ;Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953) ;Jürisson, Mikk (55547524800) ;Kabir, Zubair (57207901718) ;Kadel, Rajendra (57196080325) ;Kahsay, Amaha (57216608121) ;Kamal, Ritul (57203177242) ;Kan, Haidong (7101602991) ;Karam, Nadim E. (57221993192) ;Karch, André (57223444197) ;Karema, Corine Kakizi (57202557522) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kassa, Getachew Mullu (56229895500) ;Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa (57196473578) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas J. 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(55074747400) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Saadat, Soheil (16310355800) ;Sadat, Nafis (57219687343) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahathevan, Ramesh (35332739200) ;Salama, Joseph (57202975625) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan R. (7006262917) ;Santomauro, Damian (56912450700) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santos, João Vasco (57226214352) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson E. (57202594826) ;Setegn, Tesfaye (37075667700) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamsipour, Mansour (57197846052) ;Shariful Islam, Sheikh Mohammed (56400111100) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shields, Chloe (57196083232) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shinohara, Yukito (57203303862) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shirude, Shreya (57216599051) ;Shishani, Kawkab (14025005500) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Sibai, Abla Mehio (7005466998) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482) ;Slepak, Erica Leigh (57205356367) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr H.A. (57202564080) ;Sobngwi, Eugene (6701427993) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Sousa, Tatiane Cristina Moraes (57195329460) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Stein, Murray B. (7402996817) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steiner, Timothy J. 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(57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Wadilo, Fiseha (57194049305) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weaver, Marcia (7201548872) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Wulf Hanson, Sarah (57212263269) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yan, Lijing L. (35933756700) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013(2014) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas J. (55522621100) ;Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia (57192900191) ;Coggeshall, Megan S. (56132969600) ;Shackelford, Katya A. (57202959163) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Heuton, Kyle R. (57202568555) ;Gonzalez-Medina, Diego (57202595524) ;Barber, Ryan (57202560423) ;Huynh, Chantal (57202556112) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Templin, Tara (56133572500) ;Wolock, Timothy M. (57210784314) ;Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu (59158236200) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adelekan, Ademola (57216109261) ;Ademi, Zanfina (32867460300) ;Adou, Arsène Kouablan (56531895000) ;Adsuar, José C. (21738958900) ;Agardh, Emilie E. 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(7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Waller, Stephen (57201445180) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Wang, Linhong (59088832100) ;Wang, Xiao Rong (59881699400) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571) ;Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret (57195461619) ;Wong, John Q. (56491997300) ;Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera (57211398351) ;Xu, Gelin (14049536200) ;Yang, Yang C. (39763666500) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yentur, Gokalp Kadri (57211728019) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Jin, Kim Yun (57211086375) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Zou, Xiao Nong (57216284159) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Lozano, Rafael (7102198442)Background The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. Methods We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine diff erent causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. Findings 292 982 (95% UI 261 017-327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483-407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0.3% (-1.1 to 0.6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2.7% (-3.9 to -1.5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0.4% (0.2-0.6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956.8 (685.1-1262.8) in South Sudan to 2.4 (1.6-3.6) in Iceland. Interpretation Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015(2017) ;Barber, Ryan M. (57202560423) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Bollyky, Thomas (36677045500) ;McKee, Martin (7202304775) ;Nolte, Ellen (7005556106) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi (56677630600) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Abraham, Biju (57202568691) ;Abreha, Girmatsion Fisseha (6504124710) ;Adane, Kelemework (57202841698) ;Adelekan, Ademola Lukman (57216109261) ;Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O. 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(55481130700)Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdel-Rahman, Omar (55777635800) ;Abdi, Alireza (56845014200) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje (57192680787) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(36248136000)Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826)Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700) ;Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. 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(57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales (57208202014) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey (55906494000) ;Widecka, Justyna (15047205800) ;Widecka, Katarzyna (36761868700) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Wu, Shouling (57744442000) ;Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yentür, Gökalp Kadri (57211728019) ;Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yisma, Engida (55556060700) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
