Browsing by Author "Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)"

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Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801), (S0140673620301148), (10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30114-8))
(2020)
Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
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Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800)
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Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)
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Baumann, Mathew M. (57211550981)
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Lindstedt, Paulina A. (57211558396)
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Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381)
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Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624)
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Earl, Lucas (57190371340)
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Munro, Sandra B. (7004622934)
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Abate, Degu (57204237665)
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Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900)
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Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816)
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Abebe, Getaneh (57202422848)
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Abegaz, Kedir Hussein (57200726326)
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Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400)
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Abrigo, Michael R.M. (56018773400)
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Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600)
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Adabi, Maryam (57190491886)
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Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853)
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Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800)
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Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)
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Adham, Davoud (55346682700)
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Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000)
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Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300)
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Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300)
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Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000)
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Ahmed, Anwar E. (58205901100)
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Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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Ahmed, Rushdia (57195530549)
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Ajumobi, Olufemi (14033771400)
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Akal, Chalachew Genet (57205385708)
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Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie (57203189637)
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Akanda, Ali S. (35290419100)
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Alamene, Genet Melak (57211135938)
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Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000)
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Albright, James R. (57210320079)
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Alcalde Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200)
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Alemnew, Birhan Tamene (57211138846)
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Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw (57202557784)
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Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir (57208356112)
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Ali, Muhammad (57221004192)
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Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700)
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Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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Almasi, Ali (19433600700)
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Almasi-Hashiani, Amir (42360952700)
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Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. (8625547100)
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Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923)
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Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
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Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009)
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Amini, Saeed (57210811281)
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Amit, Arianna Maever Loreche (57211322011)
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Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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Anegago, Masresha Tessema (57216865286)
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Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282)
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Ansari, Fereshteh (56478531800)
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Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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Antriyandarti, Ernoiz (57201775415)
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Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw (57204569403)
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Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833)
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Armoon, Bahram (57191472455)
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Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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Arzani, Afsaneh (57094774900)
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Asadi-Lari, Mohsen (6603191961)
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Ashagre, Alebachew Fasil (57211139593)
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Atalay, Hagos Tasew (57203535974)
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Atique, Suleman (56505419100)
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Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900)
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Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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Avila-Burgos, Leticia (8530790100)
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Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700)
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Awoke, Nefsu (57207257383)
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Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700)
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Ayano, Getinet (57189617474)
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Ayanore, Martin Amogre (57070358300)
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Ayele, Asnakew Achaw (57194280930)
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Aynalem, Yared Asmare (57214332450)
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Azari, Samad (56396696500)
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Babaee, Ebrahim (57217157164)
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Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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Bakkannavar, Shankar M. (34970692400)
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Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar (56640778400)
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Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615)
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Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700)
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Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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Basaleem, Huda (6505771974)
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Bassat, Quique (23024176000)
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Bayati, Mohsen (56906776500)
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Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696)
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Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000)
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Bekele, Yibeltal Alemu (57214868211)
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Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450)
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Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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Berbada, Dessalegn Ajema (57195346523)
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Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763)
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Bhat, Anusha Ganapati (57208836680)
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Bhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)
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Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200)
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Bhaumik, Soumyadeep (55643126300)
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Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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Bikbov, Boris (57219957158)
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Biswas, Raaj Kishore (57194226969)
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Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw (57209212251)
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Bohlouli, Somayeh (56523246300)
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Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651)
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Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi (57212030091)
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Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich (57202792237)
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Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich (7004344976)
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Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath (46961272800)
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Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar (6505846919)
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Cárdenas, Rosario (57216482927)
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Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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Castro, Franz (57204567353)
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Chansa, Collins (24400981500)
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Chatterjee, Pranab (57202798650)
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Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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Chauhan, Bal Govind (57195315447)
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Chin, Ken Lee (57216745370)
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Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533)
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Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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Claro, Rafael M. (16834671700)
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Cormier, Natalie M. (57216638260)
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Costa, Vera M. (17134373000)
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Damiani, Giovanni (57218701806)
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Daoud, Farah (57201079837)
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Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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Darwish, Amira Hamed (57194473558)
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Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200)
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Das, Jai K. (55644705500)
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Das Gupta, Rajat (57215122060)
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Dasa, Tamirat Tesfaye (57204268402)
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Davila, Claudio Alberto (45561136400)
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Davis Weaver, Nicole (57203300193)
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Davitoiu, Dragos Virgil (57202555163)
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De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen (57204717669)
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Demis, Asmamaw Bizuneh (57207453281)
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Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam (57202214514)
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Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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Desalew, Assefa (57203766919)
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Dessie, Getenet Ayalew (57202055866)
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Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57216324802)
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Dhillon, Preeti (55520200200)
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Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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Dhungana, Govinda Prasad (24066372700)
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Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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Ding, Eric L. (54413849800)
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Diro, Helen Derara (57204564180)
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Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094)
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Doku, David Teye (36015210300)
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Dolecek, Christiane (35784177100)
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Dubey, Manisha (57219898654)
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Dubljanin, Eleonora (55957442600)
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Duko Adema, Bereket (56845644100)
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Dunachie, Susanna J. (57225394332)
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Durães, Andre R. (30867558600)
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Duraisamy, Senbagam (58956978800)
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Effiong, Andem (57213158150)
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Eftekhari, Aziz (56829076800)
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El Sayed, Iman (7004479194)
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El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922)
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El Tantawi, Maha (57214851491)
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Elemineh, Demelash Abewa (57214777126)
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El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. (34869528300)
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Elkout, Hajer (36102315300)
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Elsharkawy, Aisha (55683285000)
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Enany, Shymaa (23972375400)
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Endalamaw, Aklilu (57202040629)
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Endalew, Daniel Adane (57211158603)
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Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100)
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Etemadi, Arash (7004686554)
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Farag, Tamer H. (16230217600)
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Faraon, Emerito Jose A. (57195414019)
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Fareed, Mohammad (24491815600)
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Faridnia, Roghiyeh (55945212000)
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Farioli, Andrea (57207608705)
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Faro, Andre (36770969600)
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Farzam, Hossein (57202061001)
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Fazaeli, Ali Akbar (57204568731)
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Fazlzadeh, Mehdi (55199878200)
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Fentahun, Netsanet (56394665400)
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Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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Francis, Joel Msafiri (35198028700)
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Franklin, Richard Charles (7201428429)
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Frostad, Joseph Jon (57222306717)
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Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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Gayesa, Reta Tsegaye (57225049499)
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Gebremariam, Kidane Tadesse (57191226393)
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Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork (57200529247)
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Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn (57748459200)
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Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze (57204453564)
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Geramo, Yilma Chisha Dea (57204563310)
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Geta, Birhanu (57208190927)
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Gezae, Kebede Embaye (57204561611)
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Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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Ghassemi, Fariba (35271776100)
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Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed (57192378390)
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Goli, Srinivas (39761832500)
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Gomes, Nelson G.M. (55326199700)
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Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
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Goulart, Barbara Niegia Garcia (55958854600)
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Grada, Ayman (55797741000)
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Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008)
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Guido, Davide (56314778600)
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Guimarães, Rafael Alves (56534712800)
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Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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Gupta, Rahul (57204120071)
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Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300)
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Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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Haile, Michael Tamene (57204564050)
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Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arya (57226201352)
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Hall, Brian James (57218302519)
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Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes (57201501075)
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Haririan, Hamidreza (36157009700)
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Hariyani, Ninuk (57190349243)
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Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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Hasan, Md. Mehedi (57213529757)
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Hasanzadeh, Amir (57193162243)
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Hassankhani, Hadi (26436359700)
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Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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Hayelom, Desta Haftu (57216638000)
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Heidari, Behnam (6603217356)
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Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616)
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Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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Heydarpour, Fatemeh (57192381690)
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de Hidru, Hagos D. (57216634249)
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Hoang, Chi Linh (57205123375)
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Hoogar, Praveen (57204240256)
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Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, Mojtaba (57003517600)
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Hossain, Naznin (57195380270)
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Hosseini, Mostafa (57204569481)
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Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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Househ, Mowafa (8667908000)
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Hu, Guoqing (57218106596)
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Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300)
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Hussain, Syed Ather (56910575300)
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Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja (55988289600)
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Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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Iwu, Chinwe Juliana (56904084900)
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Jaca, Anelisa (57191066193)
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Jafari Balalami, Nader (57211139609)
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Jahanmehr, Nader (57203122718)
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Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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Jalali, Amir (23469738000)
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Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra (57204797176)
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Jenabi, Ensiyeh (15755615100)
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Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423)
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Ji, John S. (58562329500)
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Jia, Peng (55092981100)
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Johnson, Kimberly B. (57207359220)
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Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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Jóźwiak, Jacek Jerzy (21833993700)
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Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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Kabir, Zubair (57207901718)
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Kahsay, Amaha (57216608121)
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Kalani, Hamed (54984350500)
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Kanchan, Tanuj (35237157900)
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Karami Matin, Behzad (56943457000)
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Karch, Andre (55917217700)
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Karki, Surendra (55329873800)
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Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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Kasahun, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie (57209913312)
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Kayode, Gbenga A. (53463867400)
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Kazemi Karyani, Ali (56664511600)
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Keiyoro, Peter Njenga (57203177260)
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Ketema, Daniel Bekele (57207259667)
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Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif (55608324700)
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Khalid, Nauman (57204561542)
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Khalil, Ali Talha (55978863400)
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Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500)
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Khalilov, Rovshan (57193308858)
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Khan, Md Nuruzzaman (57209404949)
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Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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Khan, Gulfaraz (6701635515)
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Khan, Junaid (57203436148)
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Khatab, Khaled (27267685100)
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Khater, Amir (57211138055)
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Khater, Mona M. (57203308114)
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Khatony, Alireza (32667760800)
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Khayamzadeh, Maryam (57212086295)
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Khazaei, Mohammad (57204562878)
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Khazaei, Salman (55420466900)
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Khodamoradi, Ehsan (23094184200)
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Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein (56524167000)
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Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A. (57199100665)
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Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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Kimokoti, Ruth W. (8647554600)
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Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038)
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Kondlahalli, Shivakumar K.M. (57221603938)
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Kosek, Margaret N. (6701330606)
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Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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Kraemer, Moritz U.G. (56308225600)
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Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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Kugbey, Nuworza (57195398167)
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Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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Kumar, Manasi (21739940700)
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Kumar, Pushpendra (57208849920)
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Kusuma, Dian (57190047530)
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La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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Lacey, Ben (7004338442)
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Lal, Aparna (55163011100)
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Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984)
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Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
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Lansingh, Van C. (57209471470)
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Lasrado, Savita (36632480900)
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Lee, Paul H. (57200302692)
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Leili, Mostafa (57204565987)
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Lenjebo, Tsegaye Lolaso (57212018109)
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Levine, Aubrey J. (57189577844)
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Lewycka, Sonia (57212496031)
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Li, Shanshan (57216631901)
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Linn, Shai (7102590173)
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Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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Longbottom, Joshua (56785671300)
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Lopukhov, Platon D. (57191340780)
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Magdeldin, Sameh (22634774300)
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Mahasha, Phetole Walter (28767805500)
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Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur (55924241300)
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Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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Mamun, Abdullah A. (55666602500)
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Manafi, Farzad (55351495800)
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Manafi, Navid (57190424904)
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Manda, Ana-Laura (57204567674)
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Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)
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Mapoma, Chabila Christopher (57208956832)
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Marami, Dadi (57200546490)
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Marczak, Laurie B. (57200295553)
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Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio (57204796807)
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März, Winfried (57220877383)
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Masaka, Anthony (57204084551)
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Mathur, Manu Raj (55270329300)
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Maulik, Pallab K. (7005919685)
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Mayala, Benjamin K. (23980407900)
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McAlinden, Colm (35325278500)
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Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864)
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Mehrotra, Ravi (7203045563)
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Mehta, Kala M. (7201939418)
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Meles, Gebrekiros Gebremichael (57211140536)
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Melese, Addisu (56901393600)
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Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350)
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Mena, Alemayehu Toma (57212025187)
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Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900)
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Mengesha, Melkamu Merid (57192953602)
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Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)
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Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632)
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Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900)
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Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu M. (57214781514)
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Miller-Petrie, Molly K. (56387657900)
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Mills, Edward J. (57205301363)
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Mir, Seyed Mostafa (56715133100)
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Mirabi, Parvaneh (51864302500)
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Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888)
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Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, Amjad (57192238333)
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Mohammad, Dara K. (43161421200)
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Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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Mohammad, Yousef (6603403710)
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Mohammad Darwesh, Aso (57209007333)
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Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Naser (57552959000)
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Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700)
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Mohammed, Ammas Siraj (57211140223)
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Mohammed, Jemal Abdu (57211142589)
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Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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Mohebi, Farnam (55633844600)
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Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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Moodley, Yoshan (57210652387)
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Moradi, Ghobad (48161434000)
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Moradi, Masoud (56506570100)
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Moradi-Joo, Mohammad (56367798400)
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Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300)
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Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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Mosapour, Abbas (16425956900)
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Mouodi, Simin (55372646500)
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Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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Mozaffor, Miliva (57202792134)
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Muluneh, Atalay Goshu (57208013708)
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Muriithi, Moses K. (55824830500)
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Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)
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Murthy, G.V.S. (7101778322)
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Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466)
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Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960)
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Muthupandian, Saravanan (54585668500)
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Naderi, Mehdi (57202026927)
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Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074)
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Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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Najafi, Farid (21743304900)
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Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
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Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
(2019)
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Villafaina, Santos (57195804127)
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Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study
(2022)
Frostad, Joseph Jon (57222306717)
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Nguyen, QuynhAnh P. (57211556351)
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Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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Shalash, Ali S. (36521728200)
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Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415)
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Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056)
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Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352)
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Shetty, Ranjitha S. (57219384456)
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Shiferaw, Wondimeneh Shibabaw (57214329180)
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Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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Shin, Jae Il (57964880100)
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Siddiqi, Tariq Jamal (57193718539)
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Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400)
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Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335)
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Stockfelt, Leo (26022098300)
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Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57226205764)
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Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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Traini, Eugenio (57211137081)
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Ullah, Saif (57219395828)
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Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871)
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Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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Welgan, Catherine A. (57188448200)
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Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895)
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Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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Yaya, Sanni (55191139800)
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Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid (56017415700)
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Yilma, Mekdes Tigistu (57212019529)
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Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000)
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Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh (57039201000)
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Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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Yu, Yong (55628587954)
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Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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Brauer, Michael (57218330976)
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Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
(2020)
Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)
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Zuniga, Yves Miel H. (57194979049)
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Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2020)
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de Hidru, Hagos D. (57216634249)
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Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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Yusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)
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Zamani, Mohammad (57096222300)
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Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos (57193255530)
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Zandian, Hamed (57205175627)
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Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)
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Zepro, Nejimu Biza (57193095335)
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Zewale, Taye Abuhay (57209219258)
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Zhang, Dongyu (57216327764)
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Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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Zhao, Xiu-Ju (8360350900)
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Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)
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Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
(2020)
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Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088)
Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(2020)
Troeger, Christopher E (57195223624)
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Ghadiri, Keyghobad (55409170000)
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Gorini, Giuseppe (56509988200)
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Goulart, Alessandra C (57201181348)
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Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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Haj-Mirzaian, Arya (57226201352)
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Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707)
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Hoang, Chi Linh (57205123375)
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Hostiuc, Mihaela (51763789200)
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Hussain, Zakir (59269161900)
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Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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James, Spencer L (57202557998)
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Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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Jonas, Jost B (7202492953)
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Karch, André (55917217700)
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Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale (58686045600)
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Kassebaum, Nicholas J (57202562224)
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Kefale, Adane Teshome (57194507694)
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Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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Khan, Md Nuruzzaman (57209404949)
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Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674)
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Khoja, Abdullah T (57194229795)
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Kimokoti, Ruth W (8647554600)
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Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038)
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Kochhar, Sonali (57214107714)
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Kosen, Soewarta (57211346192)
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Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655)
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Kumar, G Anil (57139550500)
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Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984)
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Leshargie, Cheru Tesema (57195295462)
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Li, Shanshan (57216631901)
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Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609)
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MacArayan, Erlyn Rachelle King (56330601800)
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Majdan, Marek (36147855100)
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Mamun, Abdullah A (55666602500)
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Manguerra, H. (57208121153)
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Melese, Addisu (56901393600)
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Memish, Ziad A (7005059350)
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Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)
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Meretoja, Tuomo J (57202554188)
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Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900)
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Mirrakhimov, Erkin M (57216202888)
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Moazen, Babak (57204324006)
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Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378)
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Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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Moore, Catrin E (57195934063)
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Mosser, Jonathan F (56111776300)
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Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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Murthy, Srinivas (36247670800)
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Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960)
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Nazari, Javad (57207759174)
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Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800)
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Nisar, Muhammad Imran (57191774461)
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Nixon, Molly R (57204562047)
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Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136)
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Okoro, Anselm (54682112200)
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Olagunju, Andrew T (26029995700)
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Olagunju, Tinuke O (57203076824)
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Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244)
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Pakhale, Smita (57220937499)
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Postma, Maarten J (7006296502)
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Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300)
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Quansah, Reginald (14825606700)
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Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200)
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Rahim, Fakher (23052247800)
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Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900)
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Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300)
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Rezapour, Aziz (55548281300)
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Rios-Blancas, Maria Jesus (57208577330)
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Ronfani, Luca (6602565620)
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Rosettie, Katherine (57202512228)
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Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162)
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Safari, Saeed (55549255200)
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Saleem, Zikria (56179814800)
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Sambala, Evanson Zondani (36718133800)
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Samy, Abdallah M (36973661300)
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Milicevic, Milena M Santric (57211144346)
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Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893)
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Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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Smith, David L (55574206203)
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Soriano, Joan B (7101973935)
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Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T (57212263335)
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Stanaway, Jeffrey D (57201210928)
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Sufiyan, Mu'Awiyyah Babale (58294633600)
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Teklu, Teklay G E (59429585700)
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Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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Tessema, Belay (20735503600)
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Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536)
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Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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Updike, Rachel L (57204698680)
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Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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Veisani, Yousef (55370882600)
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Wada, Fiseha Wadilo (57194049305)
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Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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Weaver, Marcia (7201548872)
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Wiens, Kirsten E (55515807800)
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Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509)
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Yimer, Ebrahim M (57204849530)
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Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721)
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Zar, Heather J (7006236599)
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Zarghi, Afshin (7003559162)
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Lim, Stephen S (57201800433)
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Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962)
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Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)
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Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)
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Hay, Simon I (7101875313)
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Reiner, Robert C (57203229088)
Background: Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods: This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings: Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162–593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1–87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1–74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2–15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6–10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8–8·4). Interpretation: Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors—particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution—appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis
(2020)
Deshpande, Aniruddha (57208579336)
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Miller-Petrie, Molly K (56387657900)
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Johnson, Kimberly B (57207359220)
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Abdoli, A. (59421084100)
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Abrigo, Michael R.M. (56018773400)
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Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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Adetokunboh, Olatunji O (56598104300)
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Adinarayanan, S. (16300847400)
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Ahmadpour, E. (55067754700)
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Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317)
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Akalu, Temesgen Yihunie (57203189637)
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Alanzi, T.M. (55978240000)
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Alinia, C. (57210704519)
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Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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Amit, Arianna Maever L. (57211322011)
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Anber, N.H. (57202351369)
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Ancuceanu, R. (35728302200)
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Andualem, Z. (57205660088)
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Ansari, F. (56478531800)
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Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500)
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Anvari, D. (57201259536)
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Appiah, S. (57204569403)
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Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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Arnold, B.F. (16174532400)
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Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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Ayanore, Martin Amogre (57070358300)
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Badirzadeh, A. (54415411600)
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Baig, A.A. (49460999600)
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Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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Baraki, A.G. (56815045400)
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Bärnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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Bayati, Mohsen (56906776500)
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Bhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)
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Bhutta, Zulfiqar A (24342648300)
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Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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Bockarie, M.J. (7004523740)
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Bisanzio, D. (57196394991)
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Bohlouli, Somayeh (56523246300)
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Cano, Jorge (7201865982)
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Carvalho, Felix (7103070417)
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Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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Chavshin, C. (12780956100)
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Cormier, Natalie Maria (57216638260)
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Cromwell, Elizabeth A (15727546000)
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Schmidt, C.A. (57195299414)
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Kwong, K.T. (59789248100)
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Damiani, G. (57218701806)
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Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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Darwesh, Aso Mohammad (57199749880)
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Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200)
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Dash, Aditya Prasad (7102622168)
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Deribe, Kebede (57193912587)
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Dessu, B. (57208209808)
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Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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Dianatinasab, M. (57281638900)
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Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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Do, Hoa Thi (57201113071)
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Earl, L. (57190371340)
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El Tantawi, Maha (57214851491)
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Faraj, A. (57216632076)
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Fattahi, N. (16642728600)
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Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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Foigt, Nataliya A. (57216998893)
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Foroutan, Masoud (56986628900)
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Guo, Yuming (55712472800)
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Hailu, G.B. (57219637263)
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Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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Hassankhani, H. (26436359700)
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Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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de Hidru, Hagos Degefa (57216634249)
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Hon, J. (57215304252)
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Hole, M.K. (57159282400)
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Hossain, Naznin (57195380270)
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Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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Househ, Mowafa (8667908000)
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Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300)
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Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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Iqbal, Usman (55572166900)
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Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)
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Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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Ji, John S (58562329500)
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Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy (21833993700)
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Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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Kalankesh, L.R. (12796418600)
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Kalhor, R. (55670548600)
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Karami Matin, B. (56943457000)
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Karch, André (55917217700)
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Karimi, S. (57218689006)
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Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738)
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Kazemi Karyani, A. (56664511600)
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Kayode, Gbenga A. (53463867400)
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Kelbore, A.G. (56798540800)
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Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif (55608324700)
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Khalilov, Rovshan (57193308858)
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Khan, Junaid (57203436148)
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Khatab, Khaled (27267685100)
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Khater, Mona M (57203308114)
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Khodayari, M. (57189642962)
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Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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King, J.D. (55456497600)
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Kinyoki, D.K. (55943776500)
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Kianipour, N. (56564004200)
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Kumar, G Anil (57139550500)
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Kusuma, Dian (57190047530)
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La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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Lansingh, Van Charles (57209471470)
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Lee, Paul H (57200302692)
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LeGrand, Kate E (57216789066)
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Levine, Aubrey J (57189577844)
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Li, Shanshan (57216631901)
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Maleki, S. (57200675775)
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Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)
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Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807)
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Massenburg, B.B. (55859007400)
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Mayala, Benjamin K (23980407900)
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Meitei, W.B. (57209140259)
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Mereta, Seid Tiku (57203628211)
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Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A. (55602206500)
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Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962)
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Moradi, Masoud (56506570100)
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Moradzadeh, R. (55179399300)
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Moraga, Paula (46761426800)
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Morrison, S.D. (45661573100)
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Mosser, Jonathan F. (56111776300)
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Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700)
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Munro, Sandra B (7004622934)
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Mupfasoni, D. (35148089100)
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Muthupandian, Saravanan (54585668500)
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mwingira, U.J. (35976464300)
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Naderi, Mehdi (57202026927)
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Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074)
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Naik, Gurudatta (56020694000)
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Negoi, Ionut (57200640014)
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Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)
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Nguyen, T.H. (59142352200)
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Olagunju, Andrew T (26029995700)
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Omar Bali, A. (57201273344)
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Osarenotor, Osayomwanbo (57211311925)
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Osei, Frank B (24829542600)
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Pasupula, D. (57196471042)
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Pigott, David M (55320335600)
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Shirude, S. (57216599051)
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Hill, E. (57209096856)
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Donkers, K.M. (57209108162)
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Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200)
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Pourjafar, H. (54881252100)
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Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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Rawaf, D.L. (57209228052)
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Rawassizadeh, R. (36634807900)
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Rezapour, A. (55548281300)
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Ribeiro, Ana Isabel (36860251200)
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Rostami, A. (59144808300)
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Sabesan, S. (7004653419)
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Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500)
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Sajadi, S. Mohammad (22136195900)
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Samy, Abdallah M (36973661300)
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Sartorius, Benn (57222905707)
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Schaeffer, Lauren E (57208868098)
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Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056)
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Soltani, S. (56767763700)
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Sharifi, H. (16643763200)
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Shibuya, K. (8948057900)
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Shin, Jae Il (57964880100)
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Soheili, A. (57204123755)
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Spotin, A. (54416426700)
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Stolk, W.A. (6603001987)
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Tesfay, Berhe Etsay (57211142477)
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Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892)
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Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536)
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Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100)
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Vasseghian, Y. (56176005000)
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Violante, Francesco S (7003555890)
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Vinkeles Melchers, N.V.S. (35305970600)
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Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800)
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Yaya, S. (55191139800)
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Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V. (56017415700)
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Yip, Paul (7102503720)
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Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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Zaki, L. (57204106631)
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Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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Zamanian, M. (57201292465)
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Zangeneh, A. (56071697900)
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Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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Zhang, Z. (56068578400)
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Ziapour, Arash (57202571078)
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Hay, Simon I (7101875313)
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Reiner, Robert C (57203229088)
Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.