Browsing by Author "Carter, Austin (57201756395)"
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Publication Child and adolescent health from 1990 to 2015: Findings from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors 2015 study(2017) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas (57202562224) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Olsen, Helen Elizabeth (57203080494) ;Thomas, Katie (56239717800) ;Pinho, Christine (57212482983) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Ferrari, Alize (57195348907) ;Ghiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57195446566) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lopez, Alan (7401455668) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Salomon, Joshua (56745638600) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hasen (57207943858) ;Abbas, Kaja (57190285707) ;Damtew, Solomon Abrha (58991324800) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa (57219673720) ;Alemayohu, Mulubirhan Assefa (57203080528) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Antonio, Carl A.T. (55247644500) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (57200155811) ;Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala (55598298700) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Betsu, Balem Demtsu (57196316128) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Baye, Estifanos (57211220426) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berhane, Adugnaw (57200410735) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernal, Oscar Alberto (44060935600) ;Beyene, Addisu Shunu (57209036705) ;Biadgilign, Sibhatu (57195448180) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Boyce, Cheryl Anne (7005306160) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700) ;Catala-Lopez, Ferran (57202553733) ;Charlson, Fiona J. (57191632086) ;Chitheer, Abdulaal A. (57209314488) ;Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine (57209706428) ;Ciobanu, Liliana G. (57201603453) ;Crump, John (57202595111) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Dellavalle, Robert P. (7003806771) ;Deribew, Amare (25625914400) ;DeVeber, Gabrielle (57204345472) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Ding, Eric L. (54413849800) ;Dubey, Manisha (57219898654) ;Endries, Amanuel Yesuf (57216324852) ;Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676) ;Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino (57195414019) ;Faro, Andre (36770969600) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Joao C. (35274726800) ;Fijabi, Daniel Obadare (56133163100) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Fleming, Thomas D. (57222727747) ;Flor, Luisa Sorio (54414102000) ;Foreman, Kyle J. (57209064414) ;Franklin, Richard C. (7201428429) ;Fraser, Maya S. (57202561859) ;Frostad, Joseph J. (57222306717) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebru, Alemseged Aregay (57196196083) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Gibney, Katherine B. (57202564104) ;Yihdego, Mahari Gidey (57194541914) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed (57192378390) ;Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo (57202568734) ;Gizachew, Tessema Assefa (57194547996) ;Glaser, Elizabeth (56133254300) ;Gold, Audra L. (57194129483) ;Goldberg, Ellen (57191842703) ;Gona, Philimon (57219703762) ;Goto, Atsushi (36339255500) ;Gugnani, Harish Chander (7005567008) ;Jiang, Guohong (56984997300) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hijar, Martha (57216555124) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hu, Guoqing (57218106596) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B. (14318929700) ;Jayaraman, Sudha P. (57204716526) ;Jha, Vivekanand (7005119423) ;Jibat, Tariku (57212368830) ;Johnson, Catherine O. (57212301236) ;Jonas, Jost (7202492953) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kawakami, Norito (35377339000) ;Keiyoro, Peter N. (57203177260) ;Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A. Ahmad (57199100665) ;Kieling, Christian (57218820714) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038) ;Knibbs, Luke D. (16313525200) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krohn, Kristopher J. (57194138806) ;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655) ;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk (57204528360) ;Kulikoff, Rachel (57192649345) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Lam, Hilton Y. (35484312600) ;Larson, Heidi J. (57223681247) ;Larsson, Anders (56381985300) ;Laryea, Dennis Odai (57201281307) ;Leung, Janni (57214397752) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Lo, Loon-Tzian (57214204231) ;Lo, Warren D. (8964933400) ;Looker, Katharine J. (57202553673) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd (57195948755) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Shifti, Desalegn Markos (57210741352) ;Mazidi, Mohsen (57203231746) ;Meaney, Peter A. (57208635601) ;Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam (57951018400) ;Memiah, Peter (57217207827) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistie, Mubarek Abera (56045752700) ;Mengistu, Gebremichael Welday (57225351270) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Mock, Charles (7005790549) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Mueller, Ulrich (8512347500) ;Nagata, Chie (50061824800) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Le Nguyen, Quyen (57204521771) ;Nsoesie, Elaine (57222955478) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko O. (57218504682) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Polanczyk, Guilherme V. (6507552141) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rankin, Zane (57200251742) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Roba, Hirbo Shore (57200684844) ;Rojas-Rueda, David (57203642966) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Mohammed, Muktar Sano Kedir (57226235199) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawhney, Monika (57220001947) ;Schottker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Shaheen, Amira (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;She, June (59865584200) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Singh, Jasvinder (7404421736) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Smith, Alison (57191843859) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar (57212263335) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tabb, Karen M. (51162023700) ;Tadese, Fentaw (57190805861) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taye, Bineyam (57210469900) ;Teeple, Stephanie (57191850890) ;Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw (57216998561) ;Shifa, Girma Temam (57211793093) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Thomas, Bernadette (7401507541) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Uthman, Olalekan (23026328100) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57189653936) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert (7006079405) ;Gebrehiwot, Solomon Weldemariam (57194550425) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Williams, Hywel C. (23500447000) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Vos, Theo (57223885848)IMPORTANCE: Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. OBJECTIVE: To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. FINDINGS: Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3%(95%UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored. © 2017 American Medical Association. All rights reserved. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Adamu, Abdu A. (57202024381) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji (55947572800) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300) ;Adhena, Beyene Meressa (57322512000) ;Adib, Mina G. (57204560513) ;Admasie, Amha (56609274200) ;Afshin, Ashkan (57217465455) ;Agarwal, Gina (57220151944) ;Agesa, Kareha M. (57204562362) ;Agrawal, Anurag (35214460700) ;Agrawal, Sutapa (57202841733) ;Ahmadi, Alireza (56336080700) ;Ahmadi, Mehdi (16644923000) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Ahmed, Sayem (58601030100) ;Aichour, Amani Nidhal (57195486768) ;Aichour, Ibtihel (57195485980) ;Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine (57195488258) ;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil (56666938200) ;Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola (25633566800) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500) ;Al-Eyadhy, Ayman (24554080400) ;Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alam, Khurshid (57203681299) ;Alam, Tahiya (57205589820) ;Alebel, Animut (57195961302) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Alijanzadeh, Mehran (56236864700) ;Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza (36024974700) ;Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159) ;Alkerwi, Ala'a (57197724313) ;Alla, Francois (6701580827) ;Allebeck, Peter (7005187575) ;Alonso, Jordi (7403482329) ;Altirkawi, Khalid (57202762923) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Amare, Azmeraw T. (57202220009) ;Aminde, Leopold N. (56287711300) ;Amini, Erfan (35073393800) ;Ammar, Walid (57208159281) ;Amoako, Yaw Ampem (44960986700) ;Anber, Nahla Hamed (57202351369) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Androudi, Sofia (6603286512) ;Animut, Megbaru Debalkie (57204558749) ;Anjomshoa, Mina (57204563282) ;Ansari, Hossein (56919376000) ;Ansha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500) ;Anwari, Palwasha (57217465526) ;Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833) ;Arnlov, Johan (6602512227) ;Arora, Amit (36676951800) ;Arora, Monika (8700408200) ;Artaman, Al (57217223811) ;Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052) ;Asayesh, Hamid (55334322800) ;Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay (57203306449) ;Ataro, Zerihun (57204563849) ;Atique, Suleman (56505419100) ;Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900) ;Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907) ;Avokpaho, Euripide F.G.A. (57209842037) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina (55598298700) ;Ayele, Yohanes (57195129631) ;Ayer, Rakesh (56051098100) ;Azzopardi, Peter S. (56861081000) ;Babazadeh, Arefeh (57200079032) ;Bacha, Umar (57200173721) ;Badali, Hamid (15123728900) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Bali, Ayele Geleto (57204564615) ;Ballesteros, Katherine E. (57207968050) ;Banach, Maciej (22936699500) ;Banerjee, Kajori (57193448932) ;Bannick, Marlena S. (57206834518) ;Banoub, Joseph Adel Mattar (57204568975) ;Barboza, Miguel A. (56650777100) ;Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514) ;Barnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900) ;Barquera, Simon (6601928375) ;Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675) ;Bassat, Quique (23024176000) ;Basu, Sanjay (9335409500) ;Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336) ;Baynes, Habtamu Wondifraw (57192710748) ;Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad (57205912040) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Beghi, Ettore (7004809655) ;Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696) ;Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000) ;Bejot, Yannick (14038743100) ;Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941) ;Belachew, Abate Bekele (57201657313) ;Belay, Ezra (56372891800) ;Belay, Yihalem Abebe (57202972558) ;Bell, Michelle L. (7401466450) ;Bello, Aminu K. (12759638700) ;Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Berman, Adam E. (7201959854) ;Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150) ;Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200) ;Bertolacci, Gregory J. (57204558417) ;Beuran, Mircea (25229806700) ;Beyranvand, Tina (57203000763) ;Bhalla, Ashish (57202555305) ;Bhattarai, Suraj (55646532200) ;Bhaumik, Soumyadeeep (55643126300) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. (24342648300) ;Biadgo, Belete (55672090500) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Bijani, Ali (23134684900) ;Bikbov, Boris (57219957158) ;Bilano, Ver (57189663783) ;Bililign, Nigus (57216264444) ;Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat (55408904500) ;Bisanzio, Donal (57196394991) ;Biswas, Tuhin (59824959000) ;Blacker, Brigette F. (57202420381) ;Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500) ;Borschmann, Rohan (35091024300) ;Bosetti, Cristina (7005452936) ;Bozorgmehr, Kayvan (34767823500) ;Brady, Oliver J. (57218716651) ;Brant, Luisa C. (40160889400) ;Brayne, Carol (57210386759) ;Brazinova, Alexandra (57216996405) ;Breitborde, Nicholas J.K. (6603260895) ;Brenner, Hermann (7201832825) ;Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334) ;Britton, Gabrielle (7004997832) ;Brugha, Traolach (35370057100) ;Busse, Reinhard (35589070800) ;Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739) ;Callender, Charlton S.K.H. (57195560691) ;Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. 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(7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Erratum: Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1725–1774)(S0140673616315756)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31575-6))(2017) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A (24342648300) ;Coates, Matthew M (57211076754) ;Coggeshall, Megan (56132969600) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Diallo, Khassoum (6701577865) ;Franca, Elisabeth Barboza (16031258100) ;Fraser, Maya (57202561859) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gething, Peter W (57193559189) ;Hay, Simon I (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kita, Maaya (57208149285) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Larson, Heidi J (57202559142) ;Liang, Juan (57198351058) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lim, Stephen S (7404081544) ;Lind, Margaret (57189271761) ;Lopez, Alan D (7401455668) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Mensah, George A (57196028147) 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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1725–74—In this Article, Mohsen Naghavi, Michael J Kutz, Chantal Huynh, Samer Hamidi, Addisu Shunu Beyene, and Stephen S Lim should have been listed as authors. The affiliation details for Simon I Hay have been updated. The funding statement for Simon I Hay has been added. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Jan 5, 2017. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. 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(7005209601) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Dargan, Paul I. (57212154356) ;Das Neves, José (57208073193) ;Davitoiu, Dragos V. (57202555163) ;Davletov, Kairat (6602803024) ;De Courten, Barbora (57208309416) ;Degenhardt, Louisa (7004040033) ;Deiparine, Selina (57205252200) ;Deribe, Kebede (57193912587) ;Deribew, Amare (25625914400) ;Dey, Subhojit (25958052600) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Ding, Eric L. (54413849800) ;Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000) ;Do, Huyen Phuc (57200737094) ;Doku, David Teye (36015210300) ;Douwes-Schultz, Dirk (57196081398) ;Driscoll, Tim R. (7005928308) ;Dubey, Manisha (57219898654) ;Duncan, Bruce Bartholow (35476478500) ;Echko, Michelle (57196076782) ;El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad (54908919000) ;Ellingsen, Christian Lycke (7801360950) ;Enayati, Ahmadali (6507139052) ;Erskine, Holly E. (57202798676) ;Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158) ;Esteghamati, Alireza (11240321100) ;Ermakov, Sergey P. (7006796196) ;Estep, Kara (57216550964) ;Sa Farinha, Carla Sofae (57190279273) ;Faro, André (36770969600) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Feigin, Valery L. (57203677957) ;Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520) ;Fernandes, João C (35274726800) ;Ferrari, Alize J. (57195348907) ;Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa (57222562476) ;Filip, Irina (55570061400) ;Finegold, Samuel (57195558156) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Fitzmaurice, Christina (57212628757) ;Flaxman, Abraham D. (6602883567) ;Foigt, Nataliya (57216998893) ;Frank, Tahvi (57195993514) ;Fraser, Maya (57202561859) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Fürst, Thomas (57208431345) ;Furtado, Joao M. (36801755000) ;Gakidou, Emmanuela (57202567277) ;Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L (57200187168) ;Gebre, Teshome (57202565005) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde (57216482917) ;Gebremichael, Delelegn Yilma (57015331400) ;Geleijnse, Johanna M. (35195702500) ;Genova-Maleras, Ricard (15070563900) ;Gesesew, Hailay Abrha (56412148300) ;Gething, Peter W. (57193559189) ;Gillum, Richard F. (7103181331) ;Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed (57192378390) ;Giref, Ababi Zergaw (57219994468) ;Giroud, Maurice (7203027541) ;Giussani, Giorgia (57200843076) ;Godwin, William W. (57191841675) ;Gold, Audra L. (57194129483) ;Goldberg, Ellen M. (57191842703) ;Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762) ;Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891) ;Gouda, Hebe N. (57202432343) ;Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho (57201181348) ;Griswold, Max (57191836595) ;Gupta, Prakash C. (58767181900) ;Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300) ;Gupta, Tanush (57219956402) ;Gupta, Vipin (57199940653) ;Haagsma, Juanita A. (57202571125) ;Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261) ;Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne (57225733572) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi (57202769526) ;Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome (57203666810) ;Hamidi, Samer (24366336000) ;Hammami, Mouhanad (57216961083) ;Hancock, Jamie (57202975481) ;Handal, Alexis J. (57208977398) ;Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661) ;Hao, Yuantao (57202554333) ;Harb, Hilda L. (57221443122) ;Hareri, Habtamu Abera (57195292447) ;Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh (35085056400) ;Havmoeller, Rasmus (57212075728) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;He, Fei (59031207400) ;Hedayati, Mohammad T. (23979915700) ;Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616) ;Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz (36941085200) ;Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100) ;Hoek, Hans W. (57202570421) ;Horino, Masako (57195769276) ;Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823) ;Hosgood, H. Dean (56353204400) ;Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800) ;Hotez, Peter J. (7004958298) ;Hoy, Damian G. 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(57202562224) ;Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal (6508254091) ;Kawakami, Norito (35377339000) ;Keiyoro, Peter Njenga (57203177260) ;Kemmer, Laura (57205017265) ;Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair (57218000521) ;Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600) ;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Khoja, Abdullah Tawfh Abdullah (57194229795) ;Khosravi, Ardeshir (57201190837) ;Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein (56524167000) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kieling, Christian (57218820714) ;Kievlan, Daniel (55940685500) ;Kim, Daniel (57223019104) ;Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375) ;Kimokoti, Ruth W. (8647554600) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kissoon, Niranjan (7006364038) ;Kivimaki, Mika (7004391239) ;Knudsen, Ann Kristin (57192966362) ;Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395) ;Kosen, Soewarta (57211346192) ;Koul, Parvaiz A. (14022262900) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655) ;Kulikof, Xie Rachel (57202024253) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Kumar, Pushpendra (57208849920) ;Kutz, Michael (57195617315) ;Kyu, Hmwe H. (57217040073) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Lalloo, Ratilal (57189334553) ;Lambert, Tea Lallukka Nkurunziza (57208159086) ;Lan, Qing (56682598900) ;Lansingh, Van C. (57194598546) ;Larsson, Anders (56381985300) ;Lee, Paul H. (57200302692) ;Leigh, James (7202089604) ;Leung, Janni (57214397752) ;Levi, Miriam (54893035000) ;Li, Yongmei (56147667800) ;Kappe, Darya Li (57202014108) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Liben, Misgan Legesse (57188568119) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Liu, Angela (57196080772) ;Liu, Patrick Y. (56170368200) ;Liu, Yang (57202561981) ;Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609) ;Logroscino, Giancarlo (7004888005) ;Lorkowski, Stefan (57203677656) ;Lotufo, Paulo A. (7003331101) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Lucas, Timothy C.D. (57216683591) ;Ma, Stefan (7403723389) ;Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King (56330601800) ;Maddison, Emilie R. (57196084094) ;Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy (57192379650) ;Majdan, Marek (36147855100) ;Majdzadeh, Reza (9246620000) ;Majeed, Azeem (7102027801) ;Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760) ;Malhotra, Rajesh (7202423297) ;Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500) ;Manguerra, Helena (57208121153) ;Manyazewal, Tsegahun (55414403100) ;Mapoma, Chabila C. (57208956832) ;Marczak, Laurie B. (57200295553) ;Markos, Desalegn (57210741352) ;Martinez-Raga, Jose (57202861191) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807) ;Martopullo, Ira (57193550189) ;McAlinden, Colm (35325278500) ;McGaughey, Madeline (57206867033) ;McGrath, John J. (57202560550) ;Mehata, Suresh (57211773159) ;Meier, Toni (36678887300) ;Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam (57951018400) ;Memiah, Peter (57217207827) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mengesha, Melkamu Merid (57192953602) ;Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802) ;Menota, Bereket Gebremichael (57195329507) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Meretoja, Atte (12775885500) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188) ;Millear, Anoushka (57204879537) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Minnig, Shawn (57193238817) ;Mirarefn, Mojde (57202024712) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713) ;Mishra, Shiva Raj (57208010960) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadi, Alireza (56720095000) ;Mohammed, Shafu (57838689000) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Mola, Glen Liddell D. (57221824056) ;Mollenkopf, Sarah K. (57203646247) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Hernandez, Julio C. Montañez (57199371040) ;Montico, Marcella (57202563609) ;Mooney, Meghan D. (57216598823) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Moraga, Paula (46761426800) ;Morawska, Lidia (7004773965) ;Morrison, Shane D. (45661573100) ;Morozof, Chloe (57202020530) ;Mountjoy-Venning, Clif (57210505240) ;Mruts, Kalayu Birhane (57221822877) ;Muller, Kate (57196075658) ;Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana (7101778322) ;Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466) ;Nachega, Jean B. (6701544088) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Naldi, Luigi (7004954781) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Nascimento, Bruno Ramos (14424406800) ;Nasher, Jamal T. (56003685800) ;Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan (55804491100) ;Negoi, Ionut (57200640014) ;Ngunjiri, Josephine Wanjiku (57195296110) ;Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Nguyen, Minh (58203329200) ;Nguyen, Quyen Le (57223642100) ;Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200) ;Nichols, Emma (57205756163) ;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470) ;Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200) ;Noubiap, Jean Jacques N. (55490374000) ;Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57200737136) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okoro, Anselm (54682112200) ;Olagunju, Andrew Toyin (26029995700) ;Olsen, Helen E. (57203080494) ;Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola (57218504682) ;Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun (57222488860) ;Ong, Kanyin (57224697159) ;Opio, John Nelson (57200124403) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399) ;Osman, Majdi (59804857900) ;Ota, Erika (57202554474) ;Mahesh, P.A. (57202421244) ;Pacella, Rosana E. (57194839077) ;Pakhale, Smita (57220937499) ;Pana, Adrian (57191837583) ;Panda, Basant Kumar (57196077672) ;Jonas, Songhomitra (57198344150) ;Papachristou, Christina (7005498635) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Patten, Scott B. (57201492915) ;Patton, George C. (7102184358) ;Paudel, Deepak (57207871851) ;Paulson, Katherine (57203437789) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Perez-Ruiz, Fernando (57190090281) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pervaiz, Aslam (57202521714) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Pigott, David M. (55320335600) ;Pinho, Christine (57212482983) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Pletcher, Martin A. (57196075669) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Purcell, Caroline (56203575500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rankin, Zane (57200251742) ;Rao, Puja C. (57191835613) ;Rath, Goura Kishor (35444818200) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Ray, Sarah E. (57196078769) ;Rehm, Jürgen (7102718648) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reitsma, Marissa B. (57208766315) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Rezaei, Satar (55273796300) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (57226200664) ;Rokni, Mohammad Bagher (36119103200) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Rothenbacher, Dietrich (7004765162) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Rizwan, S.A. (57195295816) ;Saadat, Soheil (16310355800) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Sadat, Nafs (57219687343) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Saf, Sare (57202019735) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahathevan, Ramesh (35332739200) ;Salama, Joseph (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan Ramon (7006262917) ;Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores (57202569015) ;Santomauro, Damian (56912450700) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Milicevic, Milena M. Santric (57211144346) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Shahraz, Saeid (57215142060) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam (14322452700) ;Schutte, Aletta E. (57216814352) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson E. (57202594826) ;Shackelford, Katya Anne (57202959163) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shamsipour, Mansour (57197846052) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100) ;Sharma, Jayendra (57195329457) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352) ;Shey, Muki (10138820000) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shields, Chloe (57196083232) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirude, Shreya (57216599051) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shoman, Haitham (57208324664) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Singh, Abhishek (59639211800) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Smith, Alison (57191843859) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr H.A. (57202564080) ;Soneji, Samir (57204096389) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jefrey D. (57201210928) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57209726581) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steinke, Sabine (57203777687) ;Stokes, Mark Andrew (7102859000) ;Strong, Mark (12783473200) ;Strub, Bryan (57211781720) ;Subart, Michelle (57194140438) ;Sufyan, Muawiyyah Babale (57203947220) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick J. (57218360398) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Takahashi, Ken (55741242600) ;Takala, Jukka S. (35425471300) ;Talongwa, Roberto Tchio (57195568335) ;Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul (56742235200) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw (57216998561) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Thakur, J.S. (57204002123) ;Thamsuwan, Ornwipa (55484605700) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thomas, Katie E. (56239717800) ;Thompson, Alex H. (57196083297) ;Thomson, Alan J. (57969994200) ;Thrift, Amanda G. (7004824524) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Torre, Anna (57196074351) ;Tortajada, Miguel (16242320900) ;Towbin, Jefrey Allen (7102520568) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas (57202824565) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tuzcu, Emin Murat (7005951350) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Updike, Rachel (57204698680) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi (57211633289) ;Van Boven, Job F.M. (53464198500) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wallin, Mitchell T. (57201573668) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whetter, Brian (57201998502) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Woldeyes, Belete Getahun (57195329524) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xiao, Qingyang (59797114300) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (57212400558) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specifc mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods: We estimated cause-specifc deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specifc causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specifc deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16 - age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL signifcantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the fve leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a fner level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and confict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might refect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which efective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Dicker, Daniel (57196026676) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. 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(57204703404) ;Shukla, Sharvari Rahul (55760856000)Si, Si (56706979500)Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Haftom Temesgen (55950002100) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abejie, Ayenew Negesse (57203015573) ;Abera, Semaw F. 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(23026328100) ;Uzun, Selen Begum (57200327315) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Vaidya, Gaurang (55551507300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varavikova, Elena (7801408611) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Wagner, Gregory R. (57219005948) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Wallin, Mitchell Taylor (57201573668) ;Walson, Judd L. (57203254111) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Wassie, Molla Mesele (56499356400) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Werkneh, Adhena Ayaliew (57195675398) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000)Widecka, Justyna (15047205800)Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(2024) ;Ledesma, Jorge R. (57204449040) ;Ma, Jianing (58040920000) ;Zhang, Meixin (58031231300) ;Basting, Ann V. L. (57902947200) ;Chu, Huong Thi (57224162469) ;Vongpradith, Avina (57216661011) ;Novotney, Amanda (57224408265) ;LeGrand, Kate E. (57216789066) ;Xu, Yvonne Yiru (57226430004) ;Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700) ;Nicholson, Sneha Ingle (57209738886) ;Stafford, Lauryn K. (57391714800) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Ross, Jennifer M. (56895463600) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abdoun, Meriem (20336514800) ;Abdulah, Deldar Morad (57200190808) ;Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abrha, Woldu Aberhe (57210943530) ;Abubaker Ali, Hiwa (57441328600) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Aburuz, Salahdein (55886382800) ;Addo, Isaac Yeboah (56305995900) ;Adepoju, Abiola Victor (57201300225) ;Adhikari, Kishor (57852466400) ;Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149) ;Adra, Saryia (57230567100) ;Afework, Abel (57219431044) ;Aghamiri, Shahin (57208014122) ;Agyemang-Duah, Williams (57190228903) ;Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030) ;Ahmad, Danish (57202805842) ;Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022) ;Ahmadzade, Amir Mahmoud (58450881100) ;Ahmed, Haroon (57222316680) ;Ahmed, Mohammed (57205316302) ;Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030) ;Akinosoglou, Karolina (16318655800) ;Al-Ahdal, Tareq Mohammed Ali (57216279130) ;Alam, Nazmul (55391946800) ;Albashtawy, Mohammed (57203680806) ;AlBataineh, Mohammad T. 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(57204873792) ;Nnyanzi, Lawrence Achilles (57190763438) ;Noman, Efaq Ali (57191746290) ;Nomura, Shuhei (55632290700) ;Oancea, Bogdan (26658614800) ;Obamiro, Kehinde O. (57190161875) ;Odetokun, Ismail A. (58518431400) ;Odo, Daniel Bogale Odo (59157906400) ;Odukoya, Oluwakemi Ololade (55356642300) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Okereke, Chukwuma O. (58960348300) ;Okonji, Osaretin Christabel (57222864302) ;Oren, Eyal (57203665705) ;Ortiz-Brizuela, Edgar (57191414443) ;Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi (46062324800) ;Ouyahia, Amel (36499964800) ;Mahesh Padukudru, P.A. (57195664371) ;Parija, Pragyan Paramita (57209003444) ;Parikh, Romil R. (57204150124) ;Park, Seoyeon (57384211300) ;Parthasarathi, Ashwaghosha (57222979782) ;Patil, Shankargouda (58278922000) ;Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600) ;Peng, Minjin (57195204168) ;Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino (57216890866) ;Peprah, Prince (57200369019) ;Perdigão, João (24723211800) ;Perico, Norberto (57220168045) ;Pham, Hoang Tran (58627023500) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Prabhu, Attur Ravindra Attur (36815057200) ;Prasad, Manya (56599789200) ;Prashant, Akila (16040597000) ;Prates, Elton Junio Sady (58628448600) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Rahmati, Masoud (55802046400) ;Rajaa, Sathish (57205681553) ;Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran (58321724400) ;Rao, Indu Ramachandra (57195308442) ;Rao, Sowmya J. (57195423591) ;Rapaka, Deepthi (56394669700) ;Rashid, Ahmed Mustafa (57463539300) ;Ratan, Zubair Ahmed (56769961300) ;Ravikumar, Nakul (59020967700) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Krishna Reddy, Murali Mohan Rama (59512220600) ;Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Reyes, Luis Felipe (56660395500) ;Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900) ;Rezaeian, Mohsen (15053682700) ;Rezahosseini, Omid (57194737361) ;Rodrigues, Mónica (57206840982) ;Roy, Priyanka (58956986100) ;de Andrade Ruela, Guilherme (58574876700) ;Sabour, Siamak (16307842100) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Saeed, Umar (36612315100) ;Safi, Sher Zaman (35620794800) ;Saheb Sharif-Askari, Narjes (56160973000) ;Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh (56161060900) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahiledengle, Biniyam (57204583027) ;Sahoo, Soumya Swaroop (57204573139) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salami, Afeez Abolarinwa (40462361600) ;Saleem, Samreen (54403958600) ;Saleh, Mohamed A. 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(58179112300) ;Siraj, Md Shahjahan (57216886120) ;Siswanto, Siswanto (58984551300) ;Solanki, Ranjan (58824811500) ;Solomon, Yonatan (57220875005) ;Soriano, Joan B. (58319978200) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srivastava, Vijay Kumar (57203992399) ;Steiropoulos, Paschalis (59264363400) ;Swain, Chandan Kumar (58956745000) ;Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400) ;Tampa, Mircea (55324899600) ;Lukenze Tamuzi, Jacques J. L. (58627023700) ;Tat, Nathan Y. (57820156400) ;Oliaee, Razieh Tavakoli (57070503900) ;Teklay, Gebrehiwot (55782858000) ;Tesfaye, Edosa Geta (57210446063) ;Tessema, Belay (20735503600) ;Thangaraju, Pugazhenthan (55854329500) ;Thapar, Rekha (36337431900) ;Thum, Chern Choong Chern (57434552100) ;Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera (57580368800) ;Tleyjeh, Imad M. (8525790600) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Toma, Temesgen Mohammed (59676110000) ;Tram, Khai Hoan (54971362200) ;Udoakang, Aniefiok John (57217492763) ;Umar, Tungki Pratama (57221311061) ;Umeokonkwo, Chukwuma David (57204448015) ;Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad (58492413200) ;Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj (58309502900) ;van Boven, Job F. M. (53464198500) ;Varthya, Shoban Babu (56586223000) ;Wang, Ziyue (57211321436) ;Warsame, Muktar S. A. (58931043100) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Wonde, Tewodros Eshete (57207759070) ;Yaghoubi, Sajad (57194285048) ;Yi, Siyan (16837551600) ;Yigit, Vahit (57222328239) ;Yon, Dong Keon (57193675906) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zakham, Fathiah (37064030100) ;Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210) ;Zeukeng, Francis (55536099300) ;Zhang, Haijun (57217088114) ;Zhao, Yang (58957226600) ;Zheng, Peng (57213707656) ;Zielinska, Magdalena (58491440100) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)Background: Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. Findings: We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5–14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15–49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50–69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5–14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15–49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50–69 years, and a 3·29% (–5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (–713 to 2180) fewer deaths. Interpretation: Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990-2016: Results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study(2018) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Maddison, Emilie R. (57196084094) ;Henry, Nathaniel J. (57196076616) ;Ledesma, Jorge R. (57204449040) ;Wiens, Kirsten E. (55515807800) ;Reiner, Robert (57203229088) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Shields, Chloe (57196083232) ;Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron (57195835977) ;Ross, Jennifer M. (56895463600) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar (57206276269) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir (57208356112) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Andrews, Jason R. (15058787200) ;Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. (55247644500) ;Atique, Suleman (56505419100) ;Atre, Sachin R. (22933845900) ;Awasthi, Ashish (58420926700) ;Ayele, Henok Tadesse (55573710400) ;Badali, Hamid (15123728900) ;Badawi, Alaa (57216776029) ;Barac, Aleksandra (55550748700) ;Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200) ;Behzadifar, Masoud (57204671696) ;Behzadifar, Meysam (59429991000) ;Bekele, Bayu Begashaw (57196083941) ;Belay, Saba Abraham (57203298880) ;Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338) ;Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739) ;Carvalho, Félix (7103070417) ;Cercy, Kelly (57208777587) ;Christopher, Devasahayam J. (57209863533) ;Daba, Alemneh Kabeta (57203300408) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697) ;Daryani, Ahmad (16021522200) ;Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen (57204717669) ;Deribe, Kebede (57193912587) ;Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57216324802) ;Doku, David Teye (36015210300) ;Dubey, Manisha (57219898654) ;Edessa, Dumessa (56922334200) ;El-Khatib, Ziad (54908919000) ;Enany, Shymaa (23972375400) ;Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168) ;Gebre, Abadi Kahsu (59426751000) ;Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe (57078990000) ;Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo (57204566728) ;Gelano, Tilayie Feto (57200628899) ;Geremew, Demeke (57196299505) ;Gona, Philimon N. (57219703762) ;Goodridge, Amador (55801980200) ;Gupta, Rahul (57204120071) ;Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast (57201491554) ;Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa (57219637263) ;Hassen, Hamid Yimam (57188660707) ;Hedayati, Mohammad T. Tadesse (23979915700) ;Henok, Andualem (57196451824) ;Hostiuc, Sorin (24829099800) ;Hussen, Mamusha Aman (57221268448) ;Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800) ;Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Johnson, Sarah C. (57207904886) ;Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953) ;Kahsay, Amaha (57216608121) ;Kant, Surya (59567335600) ;Kasaeian, Amir (57195540738) ;Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale (58686045600) ;Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600) ;Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif (55608324700) ;Khalil, Ibrahim (58255049500) ;Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274) ;Khang, Young-Ho (57198904674) ;Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375) ;Kochhar, Sonali (57214107714) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krohn, Kristopher J. (57194138806) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Lakew, Ayenew Molla (57200821341) ;Leshargie, Cheru Tesema (57195295462) ;Lodha, Rakesh (7007019609) ;MacArayan, Erlyn Rachelle King (56330601800) ;Majdzadeh, Reza (9246620000) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807) ;Melese, Addisu (56901393600) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802) ;Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Moazen, Babak (57204324006) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500) ;Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700) ;Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960) ;Nachega, Jean B. (6701544088) ;Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800) ;Nguyen, Son Hoang (59662830400) ;Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200) ;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470) ;Nirayo, Yirga Legesse (57201651103) ;Nong, Vuong Minh (55507077200) ;Ofori-Asenso, Richard (57209300265) ;Ogbo, Felix Akpojene (57217186813) ;Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669) ;Oladimeji, Olanrewaju (57216495380) ;Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700) ;Oren, Eyal (36815569400) ;Pereira, David M. (57200690024) ;Prakash, Swayam (57212263375) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rubino, Salvatore (55240504800) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Silva, João Pedro (57204703526) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel (57204562442) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vu, Giang (57202424871) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05-10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16-1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01-1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16-0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the agestandardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (-1·3% [-1·5 to -1·2]) than mortality did (-4·5% [-5·0 to -4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was -4·0% (-4·5 to -3·7) and mortality was -8·9% (-9·5 to -8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). Interpretation If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections and otitis media, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(2025) ;Sirota, Sarah Brooke (57222625302) ;Doxey, Matthew C. (57210408930) ;Dominguez, Regina-Mae Villanueva (57861613300) ;Bender, Rose Grace (57219860604) ;Vongpradith, Avina (57216661011) ;Albertson, Samuel B. (57204573505) ;Novotney, Amanda (57224408265) ;Burkart, Katrin (29067507300) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Abdi, Parsa (58143779200) ;Abdoun, Meriem (20336514800) ;Abebe, Ayele Mamo (57191847346) ;Abegaz, Kedir Hussein (57200726326) ;Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400) ;Abualruz, Hasan (57216547615) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Aburuz, Salahdein (55886382800) ;Adane, Mesafint Molla (57217891132) ;Addo, Isaac Yeboah (56305995900) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149) ;Adzigbli, Leticia Akua (57899326600) ;Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800) ;Afzal, Saira (7004381116) ;Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030) ;Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022) ;Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030) ;Ahmed, Haroon (57222316680) ;Ahmed, Syed Anees (56943018400) ;Akinosoglou, Karolina (16318655800) ;Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed (57222709271) ;Awaidy, Salah Al (59512686900) ;Alalalmeh, Samer O. 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Z. (58418436300) ;Zare, Iman (57224488480) ;Zarimeidani, Fatemeh (59126687900) ;Zastrozhin, Michael (56728932200) ;Zhai, Chunxia (57896169500) ;Zhang, Haijun (57217088114) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Zhao, Yang (58957226600) ;Zhou, Juexiao (57215684427) ;Zia, Hafsa (59628039200) ;Zielinska, Magdalena (58491440100) ;Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300) ;Zyoud, Samer H. (57220556938) ;Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000) ;Kassebaum, Nicholas J. (57202562224) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (59116090300) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)Background: Upper respiratory infections (URIs) are the leading cause of acute disease incidence worldwide and contribute to a substantial health-care burden. Although acute otitis media is a common complication of URIs, the combined global burden of URIs and otitis media has not been studied comprehensively. We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 to explore the fatal and non-fatal burden of the two diseases across all age groups, including a granular analysis of children younger than 5 years, in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Mortality due to URIs and otitis media was estimated with use of vital registration and sample-based vital registration data, which are used as inputs to the Cause of Death Ensemble model to separately model URIs and otitis media mortality by age and sex. Morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian meta-regression tool using data from published studies identified via systematic reviews, population-based survey data, and cause-specific URI and otitis media mortality estimates. Additionally, we assessed and compared the burden of otitis media as it relates to URIs and examined the collective burden and contributing risk factors of both diseases. Findings: The global number of new episodes of URIs was 12·8 billion (95% uncertainty interval 11·4 to 14·5) for all ages across males and females in 2021. The global all-age incidence rate of URIs decreased by 10·1% (–12·0 to –8·1) from 1990 to 2019. From 2019 to 2021, the global all-age incidence rate fell by 0·5% (–0·8 to –0·1). Globally, the incidence rate of URIs was 162 484·8 per 100 000 population (144 834·0 to 183 289·4) in 2021, a decrease of 10·5% (–12·4 to –8·4) from 1990, when the incidence rate was 181 552·5 per 100 000 population (160 827·4 to 206 214·7). The highest incidence rates of URIs were seen in children younger than 2 years in 2021, and the largest number of episodes was in children aged 5–9 years. The number of new episodes of otitis media globally for all ages was 391 million (292 to 525) in 2021. The global incidence rate of otitis media was 4958·9 per 100 000 (3705·4 to 6658·6) in 2021, a decrease of 16·3% (–18·1 to –14·0) from 1990, when the incidence rate was 5925·5 per 100 000 (4371·8 to 8097·9). The incidence rate of otitis media in 2021 was highest in children younger than 2 years, and the largest number of episodes was in children aged 2–4 years. The mortality rate of URIs in 2021 was 0·2 per 100 000 (0·1 to 0·5), a decrease of 64·2% (–84·6 to –43·4) from 1990, when the mortality rate was 0·7 per 100 000 (0·2 to 1·1). In both 1990 and 2021, the mortality rate of otitis media was less than 0·1 per 100 000. Together, the combined burden accounted for by URIs and otitis media in 2021 was 6·86 million (4·24 to 10·4) years lived with disability and 8·16 million (4·99 to 12·0) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for all ages across males and females. Globally, the all-age DALY rate of URIs and otitis media combined in 2021 was 103 per 100 000 (63 to 152). Infants aged 1–5 months had the highest combined DALY rate in 2021 (647 per 100 000 [189 to 1412]), followed by early neonates (aged 0–6 days; 582 per 100 000 [176 to 1297]) and late neonates (aged 7–24 days; 482 per 100 000 [161 to 1052]). Interpretation: The findings of this study highlight the widespread burden posed by URIs and otitis media across all age groups and both sexes. There is a continued need for surveillance, prevention, and management to better understand and reduce the burden associated with URIs and otitis media, and research is needed to assess their impacts on individuals, communities, economies, and health-care systems worldwide. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400) ;Adedeji, Isaac A. 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(7404421736) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Singh, Om Prakash (57207807888) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Skirbekk, Vegard (57202564482) ;Slepak, Erica Leigh (57205356367) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Sobaih, Badr H. A. (57202564080) ;Sobngwi, Eugene (6701427993) ;Soljak, Michael (57202841728) ;Sorensen, Reed J. D. (57196918748) ;Sousa, Tatiane Cristina Moraes (57195329460) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jefrey D. (57201210928) ;Stathopoulou, Vasiliki (57195644148) ;Steel, Nicholas (6603791873) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steinke, Sabine (57203777687) ;Stokes, Mark Andrew (7102859000) ;Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390) ;Strub, Bryan (57211781720) ;Subart, Michelle (57194140438) ;Sufyan, Muawiyyah Babale (57203947220) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick J. (57218360398) ;Swaminathan, Soumya (7102380757) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylte, Dillon (57211183601) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E. I. (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tafere, Getachew Redae (57195757687) ;Takala, Jukka S. (35425471300) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tanne, David (7006302238) ;Tarekegn, Yihunie L. (57202809688) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Taylor, Hugh R. 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(57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yihdego, Mahari Gidey (57194541914) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57201889726) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zoeckler, Leo (57203905510) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (55481130700) ;Adedji, I.A. (57207919805) ;Murdoch, M.E. (57202097865)Bryane, C.E.G. (57207920084)Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Molla (57211131124) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abrham, Aklilu Roba (57202704637) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. 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(55481130700)Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017(2019) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Douwes-Schultz, Dirk (57196081398) ;Larson, Samantha Leigh (57204569813) ;Arora, Megha (57196080797) ;Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura (50461317900) ;Steuben, Krista M. (57208867341) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abyu, Direslgne Misker (56507277900) ;Adabi, Maryam (57190491886) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. 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(55481130700)Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017(2019) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Douwes-Schultz, Dirk (57196081398) ;Larson, Samantha Leigh (57204569813) ;Arora, Megha (57196080797) ;Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura (50461317900) ;Steuben, Krista M. (57208867341) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abyu, Direslgne Misker (56507277900) ;Adabi, Maryam (57190491886) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. (57194329853) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adetokunboh, Olatunji O. 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(55481130700)Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016(2017) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbas, Kaja M. (57190285707) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M. (6603592018) ;Abebo, Teshome Abuka (57195738441) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J. (14032724700) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. 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(57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Wadilo, Fiseha (57194049305) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weaver, Marcia (7201548872) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woodbrook, Rachel (57200298006) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Wulf Hanson, Sarah (57212263269) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yan, Lijing L. (35933756700) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zegeye, Elias Asfaw (57209171278) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zipkin, Ben (57200737130) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017(2018) ;James, Spencer L. (57202557998) ;Abate, Degu (57204237665) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abay, Solomon M. (35306466900) ;Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400) ;Abbasi, Nooshin (57212442022) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdela, Jemal (57200613000) ;Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783) ;Abdollahpour, Ibrahim (36997151900) ;Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57195295816) ;Abebe, Zegeye (57193002719) ;Abera, Semaw F. (57205180598) ;Abil, Olifan Zewdie (57204558002) ;Abraha, Haftom Niguse (57195289877) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E. (57216675148) ;Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500) ;Acharya, Dilaram (56770895600) ;Acharya, Pawan (56435749900) ;Ackerman, Ilana N. 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(57008289000) ;Marcenes, Wagner (7005668102) ;Marks, Ashley (57204558704) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807) ;Martopullo, Ira (57193550189) ;März, Winfried (57220877383) ;Marzan, Melvin B. (57200737144) ;Mashamba-Thompson, Tivani Phosa (56281917500) ;Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard (55859007400) ;Mathur, Manu Raj (55270329300) ;Matsushita, Kunihiro (57202091432) ;Maulik, Pallab K. (7005919685) ;Mazidi, Mohsen (57200232563) ;McAlinden, Colm (35325278500) ;McGrath, John J. (57215198193) ;McKee, Martin (7202304775) ;Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864) ;Mehrotra, Ravi (7203045563) ;Mehta, Kala M. (7201939418) ;Mehta, Varshil (57158753300) ;Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola (56013641600) ;Mekonen, Tesfa (56118971700) ;Melese, Addisu (56901393600) ;Melku, Mulugeta (56032188500) ;Meltzer, Michele (57206867011) ;Memiah, Peter T.N. (57217207827) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802) ;Mengistu, Getnet (57193539632) ;Mensah, George A. (57196028147) ;Mereta, Seid Tiku (57203628211) ;Meretoja, Atte (12775885500) ;Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57202554188) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi (57575826800) ;Miazgowski, Bartosz (56857536900) ;Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689) ;Millear, Anoushka I. (57204879537) ;Miller, Ted R. (7403948600) ;Miltz, Benjamin (57204557588) ;Mini, G.K. (12800865800) ;Mirarefin, Mojde (57222113397) ;Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888) ;Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen (57202808713) ;Mitchell, Philip B. (35354747000) ;Mitiku, Habtamu (49864023500) ;Moazen, Babak (57204324006) ;Mohajer, Bahram (57039225300) ;Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin (57205300378) ;Mohammadifard, Noushin (23110866700) ;Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, Mousa (57203524570) ;Mohammed, Mohammed A. (57196575014) ;Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000) ;Mohebi, Farnam (55633844600) ;Moitra, Modhurima (57191962343) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497) ;Moodley, Yoshan (57210652387) ;Moosazadeh, Mahmood (35771326500) ;Moradi, Ghobad (48161434000) ;Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar (35617421300) ;Moradinazar, Mehdi (59750499200) ;Moraga, Paula (46761426800) ;Morawska, Lidia (7004773965) ;Moreno Velásquez, Ilais (56499291900) ;Morgado-Da-Costa, Joana (57204560697) ;Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100) ;Moschos, Marilita M. (7004456074) ;Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam (56165159700) ;Mruts, Kalayu Brhane (57221822877) ;Muche, Achenef Asmamaw (57195576373) ;Muchie, Kindie Fentahun (57194458469) ;Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500) ;Muhammed, Oumer Sada (57202727745) ;Mukhopadhyay, Satinath (36342847700) ;Muller, Kate (57196075658) ;Mumford, John Everett (57221821974) ;Murhekar, Manoj (35551594800) ;Musa, Jonah (15022919200) ;Musa, Kamarul Imran (57194536466) ;Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960) ;Nabhan, Ashraf F. (55880870200) ;Nagata, Chie (50061824800) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Naheed, Aliya (57202560989) ;Nahvijou, Azin (18837247000) ;Naik, Gurudatta (56020694000) ;Naik, Nitish (7006558334) ;Najafi, Farid (21743304900) ;Naldi, Luigi (7004954781) ;Nam, Hae Sung (7102066169) ;Nangia, Vinay (57201490837) ;Nansseu, Jobert Richie (55548984700) ;Nascimento, Bruno Ramos (14424406800) ;Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan (55804491100) ;Neamati, Nahid (57204566952) ;Negoi, Ionut (57200640014) ;Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200) ;Neupane, Subas (57215632313) ;Newton, Charles Richard James (35465836500) ;Ngunjiri, Josephine W. (57195296110) ;Nguyen, Anh Quynh (57204557413) ;Nguyen, Ha Thu (57468278900) ;Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406) ;Nguyen, Huong Thanh (37093238600) ;Nguyen, Long Hoang (56567321800) ;Nguyen, Minh (58203329200) ;Nguyen, Nam Ba (57204561572) ;Nguyen, Son Hoang (59662830400) ;Nichols, Emma (57205756163) ;Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini (57195329470) ;Nixon, Molly R. 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(7003731802) ;Pirsaheb, Meghdad (25645282200) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer (41662092800) ;Plass, Dietrich (57217142114) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Popova, Svetlana (56848085800) ;Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502) ;Pourshams, Akram (6507521541) ;Poustchi, Hossein (8622806500) ;Prabhakaran, Dorairaj (7004283783) ;Prakash, Swayam (57212263375) ;Prakash, V. (55722781800) ;Purcell, Caroline A. (56203575500) ;Purwar, Manorama B. (6602127625) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Quistberg, D. Alex (6507023057) ;Radfar, Amir (57194428768) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200) ;Rahim, Fakher (23052247800) ;Rahimi, Kazem (58482212900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin (8696686900) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378) ;Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Rajati, Fatemeh (54780507400) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Ranjan, Prabhat (57200595370) ;Ranta, Anna (26768039500) ;Rao, Puja C. (57191835613) ;Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052) ;Rawaf, Salman (6602475959) ;Reddy, K. Srinath (35417788900) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Reinig, Nickolas (57208577401) ;Reitsma, Marissa Bettay (57208766315) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Rezaei, Satar (55791003000) ;Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh (55273796300) ;Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P. (57204577960) ;Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969) ;Roever, Leonardo (56641632800) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Rostami, Ali (59144808300) ;Roth, Gregory A. (55074747400) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Rubagotti, Enrico (57208389589) ;Sachdev, Perminder S. (7102284091) ;Sadat, Nafis (57219687343) ;Saddik, Basema (23020079300) ;Sadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500) ;Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar (56071020000) ;Safari, Hosein (57204236925) ;Safari, Yahya (55700424100) ;Safari-Faramani, Roya (57210821203) ;Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024) ;Safi, Sare (57219477293) ;Safiri, Saeid (56009654100) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900) ;Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600) ;Sajadi, Haniye Sadat (57190919153) ;Salam, Nasir (23992664500) ;Salama, Joseph S. (57202975625) ;Salamati, Payman (14045860600) ;Saleem, Komal (58834310300) ;Saleem, Zikria (56179814800) ;Salimi, Yahya (54421017000) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Salvi, Sundeep Santosh (7005258777) ;Salz, Inbal (57199623777) ;Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300) ;Sanabria, Juan (7006262917) ;Sang, Yingying (55192664300) ;Santomauro, Damian Francesco (56912450700) ;Santos, Itamar S. (57198312911) ;Santos, João Vasco (57226214352) ;Santric Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346) ;Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi (57204561719) ;Sardana, Mayank (56992882500) ;Sarker, Abdur Razzaque (55908816200) ;Sarrafzadegan, Nizal (6701751316) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sarvi, Shahabeddin (56168398100) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Sawant, Arundhati R. (57204568004) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Saxena, Sonia (57203151746) ;Saylan, Mete (56253241700) ;Schaeffner, Elke (6507021741) ;Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885) ;Schneider, Ione J.C. (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C. (6603681532) ;Schwendicke, Falk (55639536600) ;Scott, James G. (57218307442) ;Sekerija, Mario (30268005400) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000) ;Serván-Mori, Edson (57202594826) ;Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba (57204698893) ;Shabaninejad, Hosein (56047947500) ;Shafieesabet, Azadeh (56964338900) ;Shahbazi, Mehdi (58427375600) ;Shaheen, Amira A. (57202560956) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran (57193608415) ;Shamsi, Mohammadbagher (57204557980) ;Shamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127) ;Sharafi, Heidar (57322506400) ;Sharafi, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Sharif, Mehdi (16022734200) ;Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi (35108018000) ;Sharma, Meenakshi (58730797800) ;Sharma, Rajesh (58228412600) ;She, Jun (57209122131) ;Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962) ;Shi, Peilin (57203064901) ;Shibuya, Kenji (8948057900) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shiri, Rahman (57200737050) ;Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400) ;Shishani, Kawkab (14025005500) ;Shiue, Ivy (35811219800) ;Shokraneh, Farhad (36146063000) ;Shoman, Haitham (57208324664) ;Shrime, Mark G. (57204703404) ;Si, Si (56706979500) ;Siabani, Soraya (25227131300) ;Siddiqi, Tariq J. (57193718539) ;Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora (57195363778) ;Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig (56006396200) ;Silva, João Pedro (7403023631) ;Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves (57190284103) ;Singam, Narayana Sarma Venkata (57204560563) ;Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736) ;Singh, Narinder Pal (57211864736) ;Singh, Virendra (57191848598) ;Sinha, Dhirendra Narain (7201637609) ;Skiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500) ;Slepak, Erica Leigh N. (57205356367) ;Sliwa, Karen (57207223988) ;Smith, David L. (55574206203) ;Smith, Mari (57195484737) ;Soares Filho, Adauto Martins (49961178500) ;Sobaih, Badr Hasan (57202564080) ;Sobhani, Soheila (57193095221) ;Sobngwi, Eugène (6701427993) ;Soneji, Samir S. (57204096389) ;Soofi, Moslem (56373891000) ;Soosaraei, Masoud (57192700508) ;Sorensen, Reed J.D. (57196918748) ;Soriano, Joan B. (7101973935) ;Soyiri, Ireneous N. (15052406400) ;Sposato, Luciano A. (25640261000) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Srinivasan, Vinay (57196077031) ;Stanaway, Jeffrey D. (57201210928) ;Stein, Dan J. (55769747595) ;Steiner, Caitlyn (57205358084) ;Steiner, Timothy J. (16837503200) ;Stokes, Mark A. (7102859000) ;Stovner, Lars Jacob (57201788390) ;Subart, Michelle L. (57194140438) ;Sudaryanto, Agus (57305372500) ;Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (58294633600) ;Sunguya, Bruno F. (57209060557) ;Sur, Patrick John (57218360398) ;Sutradhar, Ipsita (57202349742) ;Sykes, Bryan L. (57211183396) ;Sylte, Dillon O. (57211183601) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar (57207799926) ;Tadesse, Birkneh Tilahun (56811144600) ;Tandon, Nikhil (7101833756) ;Tassew, Segen Gebremeskel (57204569108) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taveira, Nuno (6602731390) ;Taylor, Hugh R. (55550572900) ;Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020) ;Tekalign, Tigist Gashaw (57204558037) ;Tekelemedhin, Shishay Wahdey (57204566273) ;Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin (57204237146) ;Temesgen, Habtamu (57205011874) ;Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000) ;Temsah, Omar (57204559820) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu (57193667629) ;Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435) ;Thomas, Nihal (7401830494) ;Tilahun, Binyam (57212075730) ;To, Quyen G. (55827789100) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Torre, Anna E. (57196074351) ;Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel (16242320900) ;Touvier, Mathilde (8877033300) ;Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900) ;Towbin, Jeffrey A. (7102520568) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tran, Khanh Bao (57201651536) ;Troeger, Christopher E. (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas Clement (57202824565) ;Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis K. (6701721894) ;Tsoi, Derrick (57196074984) ;Tudor Car, Lorainne (48561867100) ;Tuzcu, E. Murat (7005951350) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N. (57202824584) ;Ullah, Irfan (56992676600) ;Undurraga, Eduardo A. (57204092789) ;Unutzer, Jurgen (7007005108) ;Updike, Rachel L. (57204698680) ;Usman, Muhammad Shariq (57203046075) ;Uthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100) ;Vaduganathan, Muthiah (16417973600) ;Vaezi, Afsane (55698015300) ;Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577) ;Varughese, Santosh (22942817500) ;Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Villafaina, Santos (57195804127) ;Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vosoughi, Kia (56199294900) ;Vujcic, Isidora S. (55957120100) ;Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw (57200917385) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Waller, Stephen G. (57201445180) ;Wang, Yafeng (57208674780) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J. (8609275600) ;Weldegebreal, Fitsum (56112812300) ;Weldegwergs, Kidu Gidey (57203308107) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;West, T. Eoin (57756844000) ;Whiteford, Harvey A. (55906494000) ;Widecka, Justyna (15047205800) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wilner, Lauren B. (57193699787) ;Wilson, Shadrach (57204557765) ;Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700) ;Wiyeh, Alison B. (57196222987) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Woolf, Anthony D. (7102882171) ;Wu, Shouling (57744442000) ;Wu, Yun-Chun (56095674500) ;Wyper, Grant M.A. (56503829800) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadgir, Simon (57192837280) ;Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896) ;Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100) ;Yamada, Tomohide (37662679800) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Yasin, Yasin Jemal (57204565144) ;Yeshaneh, Alex (57204564144) ;Yimer, Ebrahim M. (57202256312) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yisma, Engida (55556060700) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Yousefifard, Mahmoud (57204566585) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058) ;Zamani, Mohammad (59866744200) ;Zare, Zohreh (35436578700)Zeleke, Ayalew Jejaw (57193096860)Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(2022) ;Ledesma, Jorge R. (57204449040) ;Ma, Jianing (58040920000) ;Vongpradith, Avina (57216661011) ;Maddison, Emilie R. (57196084094) ;Novotney, Amanda (57224408265) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Legrand, Kate E. (57216789066) ;Ross, Jennifer M. (56895463600) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Bryazka, Dana (57200015057) ;Feldman, Rachel (57204568514) ;Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600) ;Abosetugn, Akine Eshete (57041277200) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Adebayo, Oladimeji M. 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(57195414019) ;Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611) ;Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500) ;Desideri, Lorenzo Ferro (57201549628) ;Filip, Irina (55570061400) ;Fischer, Florian (55508208800) ;Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L. (57200187168) ;Garcia-Calavaro, Christian (57221252883) ;Garg, Tushar (57681919400) ;Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle (57204583027) ;Ghadiri, Keyghobad (55409170000) ;Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020) ;Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600) ;Goodridge, Amador (55801980200) ;Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100) ;Gupta, Sapna (57217857409) ;Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364) ;Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800) ;Haider, Mohammad Rifat (56660365700) ;Hamidi, Samer (24366336000) ;Hanif, Asif (55360052800) ;Haque, Shaful (35793732800) ;Harapan, Harapan (55844857500) ;Hargono, Arief (57208225627) ;Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300) ;Hashi, Abdiwahab (57193562090) ;Hassan, Shoaib (57216236959) ;Hassankhani, Hadi (26436359700) ;Hayat, Khezar (57219918947) ;Hezam, Kamal (57199187791) ;Holla, Ramesh (55270371800) ;Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569) ;Hostiuc, Mihaela (51763789200) ;Househ, Mowafa (8667908000) ;Hussain, Rabia (7103224786) ;Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408) ;Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522) ;Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394) ;Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543) ;Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900) ;Itumalla, Ramaiah (57212472658) ;Jaafari, Jalil (55531397900) ;Jacobsen, Kathryn H. (26029163100) ;Jain, Vardhmaan (57208149266) ;Javanmardi, Fatemeh (57210737191) ;Jayapal, Sathish Kumar (57202019648) ;Jayaram, Shubha (57221589240) ;Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400) ;Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953) ;Joseph, Nitin (35292547200) ;Joukar, Farahnaz (26024213000) ;Kabir, Zubair (57207901718) ;Kamath, Ashwin (35724313100) ;Kanchan, Tanuj (35237157900) ;Kandel, Himal (57226834655) ;Katoto, Patrick D.M.C. (57202776078) ;Kayode, Gbenga A. (53463867400) ;Kendrick, Parkes J. (57217087655) ;Kerbo, Amene Abebe (57195329387) ;Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500) ;Khalilov, Rovshan (57193308858) ;Khatab, Khaled (27267685100) ;Khoja, Abdullah T. (57194229795) ;Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011) ;Kim, Min Seo (57203591936) ;Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375) ;Kisa, Adnan (6603346067) ;Kisa, Sezer (14030019900) ;Kosen, Soewarta (57211346192) ;Koul, Parvaiz A. (14022262900) ;Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane (57196152832) ;Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912) ;Krishan, Kewal (57202279708) ;Bicer, Burcu Kucuk (57204528360) ;Kumar, Avinash (57210155926) ;Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500) ;Kumar, Narinder (8215803600) ;Kumar, Nithin (36678889900) ;Kwarteng, Alexander (54079844900) ;Lak, Hassan Mehmood (57211620211) ;Lal, Dharmesh Kumar (57222488984) ;Landires, Iván (15063040000) ;Lasrado, Savita (36632480900) ;Lee, Shaun Wen Huey (35201185800) ;Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700) ;Lin, Christine (57219861546) ;Liu, Xuefeng (37050047900) ;Lopukhov, Platon D. (57191340780) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Machado, Daiane Borges (56644244100) ;Kunjathur, Shilpashree Madhava (56951087800) ;Madi, Deepak (54581344300) ;Mahajan, Preetam Bhalchandra (57168727200) ;Majeed, Azeem (7102027801) ;Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313) ;Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807) ;Mehta, Saurabh (56535820900) ;Memish, Ziad A. (7005059350) ;Mendoza, Walter (57216905642) ;Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900) ;Merie, Hayimro Edemealem (57213592319) ;Mersha, Amanual Getnet (57194940075) ;Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (57204623773) ;Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107) ;Mheidly, Nour Mheidly (57218599115) ;Misra, Sanjeev (35501005200) ;Mithra, Prasanna (36018632500) ;Moghadaszadeh, Masoud (57200791890) ;Mohammadi, Mokhtar (57188972365) ;Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah (55602206500) ;Mohammed, Shafu (57838689000) ;Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920) ;Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400) ;Al Montasir, Ahmed (57222707819) ;Moore, Catrin E. (57195934063) ;Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074) ;Nair, Sanjeev (7402726229) ;Nair, Suma (55734348446) ;Naqvi, Atta Abbas (56501393600) ;Swamy, Sreenivas Narasimha (57222706843) ;Nayak, Biswa Prakash (56639942500) ;Nazari, Javad (57207759174) ;Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618) ;Nguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200) ;Nixon, Molly R. (57204562047) ;Nnaji, Chukwudi A. 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(36973661300) ;Saroshe, Satish (36125578600) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500) ;Sawyer, Susan M. (7103253172) ;Senthilkumaran, Subramanian (36191387000) ;Seylani, Allen (57222325334) ;Shafaat, Omid (55567483500) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Sharaf, Kiomars (57194516056) ;Shetty, Ranjitha S. (57219384456) ;Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000) ;Shin, Jae Il (57964880100) ;Silva, João Pedro (57204703526) ;Singh, Jitendra Kumar (56770483800) ;Sinha, Smriti (57212581689) ;Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981) ;Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198) ;Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth (57218543838) ;Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. (57212263335) ;Steiropoulos, Paschalis (55965229900) ;Sufyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale (57203947220) ;Tabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400) ;Tadesse, Eyayou Girma (57221591705) ;Tamir, Zemenu (57189602203) ;Tarkang, Elvis Enowbeyang (55351474900) ;Tekalegn, Yohannes (57201033519) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Tessema, Belay (20735503600) ;Thapar, Rekha (36337431900) ;Tleyjeh, Imad I. (8525790600) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Tsegaye, Berhan (57204784042) ;Tsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie (57216732977) ;Ullah, Anayat (57215320706) ;Umeokonkwo, Chukwuma David (57204448015) ;Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072) ;Vo, Bay (35147075900) ;Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871) ;Waheed, Yasir (35303643700) ;Walters, Magdalene K. (58375486400) ;Whisnant, Joanna L. (57204171508) ;Woldekidan, Mesfn Agachew (57737088300) ;Wubishet, Befkadu Legesse (57200671454) ;Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055) ;Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034) ;Yeshaw, Yigizie (57197818606) ;Yi, Siyan (16837551600) ;Yigit, Vahit (57222328239) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670) ;Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200) ;Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491) ;Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400) ;Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723) ;Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962) ;Salomon, Joshua A. (56745638600) ;Reiner, Robert C. (57203229088) ;Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Hay, Simon I. (7101875313) ;Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe (57217040073)Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019(2021) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Walters, Magdalene K. (58375486400) ;Novotney, Amanda (57224408265) ;Brewer, Edmond D. (57274988200) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abhilash, E.S. (57226827662) ;Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal (14032724700) ;Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900) ;Adeyinka, Daniel Adedayo (35223041800) ;Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149) ;Afzal, Saira (7004381116) ;Aghababaei, Soodabeh (57191370945) ;Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030) ;Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022) ;Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300) ;Ahmadi, Sepideh (58189812000) ;Ahmadpour, Ehsan (55067754700) ;Ahmed, Muktar Beshir (57207802317) ;Rashid, Tarik Ahmed (57023479100) ;Salih, Yusra Ahmed (57407078800) ;Aklilu, Addis (56450972500) ;Akram, Tayyaba (57208951047) ;Akunna, Chisom Joyqueenet (57214884531) ;Al Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200) ;Alahdab, Fares (55135922900) ;Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595) ;Aleksandrova, Ekaterina A. (56118343000) ;Alene, Kefyalew Addis (57202583764) ;Ali, Liaqat (55646005400) ;Alipour, Vahid (56436629300) ;Almustanyir, Sami (57217589155) ;Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239) ;Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena (57194076624) ;Amu, Hubert (57190183918) ;Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200) ;Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400) ;Anvari, Davood (57201259536) ;Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927) ;Aremu, Olatunde (57214958833) ;Arulappan, Judie (57224210161) ;Atnafu, Desta Debalkie (57203502301) ;Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala (55598298700) ;Ayza, Muluken Altaye (57216492115) ;Azari, Samad (56396696500) ;Darshan, B.B. 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(57217040073)Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019(2021) ;Jahagirdar, Deepa (57213764835) ;Walters, Magdalene K. (59790192000) ;Novotney, Amanda (57224408265) ;Brewer, Edmond D. (57274988200) ;Frank, Tahvi D. (57203197110) ;Carter, Austin (57201756395) ;Biehl, Molly H. (57196041812) ;Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848) ;Abhilash, E.S. 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(57217040073)Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
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(57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Waid, Jillian L. (57191965831) ;Wakayo, Tolassa (57205609717) ;Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G. (7006079405) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Wesana, Joshua (56688521300) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Wilkinson, James D. (57207903571) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Woldeyes, Belete Getahun (57195329524) ;Wolfe, Charles D.A. (57202754705) ;Workicho, Abdulhalik (56720337100) ;Workie, Shimelash Bitew (57191837199) ;Xavier, Denis (55403963100) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yaghoubi, Mohsen (56402926900) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene (57190286375) ;Yan, Lijing L. (57198311895) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yimam, Hassen Hamid (57196325590) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn (49664327400) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Yotebieng, Marcel (26325950800) ;Younis, Mustafa Z. (8549393000) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa (57203666922) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew (57200737185) ;Zerfu, Taddese Alemu (55358278900) ;Zhang, Anthony Lin (56391112900) ;Zhang, Xueying (56283378700) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080) ;Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna (57209027746) ;Lopez, Alan D. (7401455668)Murray, Christopher J.L. (55481130700)Background: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates - a measure of relative inequality - increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright © The Author(s). - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Publication Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015(2016) ;Wang, Haidong (16507828100) ;Bhutta, Zulfiqar A (24342648300) ;Coates, Matthew M (57211076754) ;Coggeshall, Megan (56132969600) ;Dandona, Lalit (7007017243) ;Diallo, Khassoum (6701577865) ;Franca, Elisabeth Barboza (16031258100) ;Fraser, Maya (57202561859) ;Fullman, Nancy (57211064970) ;Gething, Peter W (57193559189) ;Hay, Simon I (7101875313) ;Kinfu, Yohannes (12770281900) ;Kita, Maaya (57208149285) ;Kulikoff, Xie Rachel (57191837748) ;Larson, Heidi J (57202559142) ;Liang, Juan (57198351058) ;Liang, Xiaofeng (26662590300) ;Lim, Stephen S (57201800433) ;Lind, Margaret (57189271761) ;Lopez, Alan D (7401455668) ;Lozano, Rafael (7102198442) ;Mensah, George A (57196028147) ;Mikesell, Joseph B (57202572280) ;Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962) ;Mooney, Meghan D (57216598823) ;Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323) ;Nguyen, Grant (57191591002) ;Rakovac, Ivo (57201180617) ;Salomon, Joshua A (56745638600) ;Silpakit, Naris (57202401404) ;Sligar, Amber (57190284582) ;Sorensen, Reed J D (57196918748) ;Vos, Theo (57223885848) ;Zhu, Jun (56215097100) ;Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu (57203613441) ;Abate, Kalkidan Hassen (57207943858) ;Abbas, Kaja M (57190285707) ;Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900) ;Abdulle, Abdishakur M (6603592018) ;Abera, Semaw Ferede (57205180598) ;Aboyans, Victor (56214736500) ;Abraham, Biju (57202568691) ;Abubakar, Ibrahim (57220174401) ;Abu-Raddad, Laith J (14032724700) ;Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M E (57216675148) ;Abyu, Gebre Yitayih (57190277969) ;Achoki, Tom (57202561099) ;Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi (57203334499) ;Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi (57208456508) ;Adelekan, Ademola Lukman (57216109261) ;Adou, Arsène Kouablan (56531895000) ;Agarwal, Arnav (56865159500) ;Ajala, Oluremi N (57218094659) ;Akinyemiju, Tomi F (57202561503) ;Akseer, Nadia (57207801968) ;Alam, Khurshid 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(57202421244) ;Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178) ;Park, Hye-Youn (57190283947) ;Parsaeian, Mahboubeh (57196467994) ;Paternina Caicedo, Angel J (35769665400) ;Patten, Scott B (57201492915) ;Pedro, João Mário (57208350594) ;Pereira, David M (57200690024) ;Perico, Norberto (56481931200) ;Pesudovs, Konrad (7004576721) ;Petzold, Max (7003628893) ;Phillips, Michael Robert (57202563610) ;Pillay, Julian David (57197803061) ;Pishgar, Farhad (56676403900) ;Polinder, Suzanne (12766122200) ;Pope, Daniel (7102019067) ;Popova, Svetlana (56848085800) ;Pourmalek, Farshad (8309390500) ;Qorbani, Mostafa (24831040300) ;Rabiee, Rynaz H S (57205452058) ;Rafay, Anwar (57212263323) ;Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446) ;Rahman, Mahfuzar (35571661300) ;Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497) ;Rahman, Sajjad Ur (15835524800) ;Rai, Rajesh Kumar (51864423900) ;Raju, Murugesan (57212263299) ;Ram, Usha (26653819000) ;Rana, Saleem M (57204884092) ;Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal (56719695500) ;Rao, Puja (57191835613) ;Refaat, Amany H (57216641565) ;Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600) ;Resnikoff, Serge (7006012071) ;Reynolds, Alex (57216683497) ;Rojas-Rueda, David (57203642966) ;Ronfani, Luca (6602565620) ;Roshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800) ;Roth, Gregory A (55074747400) ;Roy, Ambuj (7402704658) ;Ruhago, George Mugambage (50761517500) ;Sagar, Rajesh (26643103100) ;Saleh, Muhammad Muhammad (57190288485) ;Sanabria, Juan R (7006262917) ;Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores (57202569015) ;Santos, Itamar S (57198312911) ;Santos, João Vasco (57226214352) ;Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo (57204744430) ;Sartorius, Benn (12788526800) ;Satpathy, Maheswar (57202563691) ;Savic, Miloje (57204524150) ;Sawhney, Monika (57217153893) ;Schneider, Ione J C (57201292772) ;Schöttker, Ben (37665918200) ;Schwebel, David C (6603681532) ;Seedat, Soraya (7003445887) ;Sepanlou, Sadaf G (36248136000) ;Servan-Mori, Edson E (57202594826) ;Setegn, Tesfaye (37075667700) ;Shahraz, Saeid (57215142060) ;Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601) ;Shakh-Nazarova, Marina 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;Sykes, Bryan L (57211183396) ;Szoeke, Cassandra E I (6505920990) ;Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102) ;Tavakkoli, Mohammad (57202524239) ;Taye, Bineyam (57210469900) ;Tedla, Bemnet Amare (57211142920) ;Tefera, Worku Mekonnen (36631155200) ;Tekle, Tesfaye (57190280789) ;Temam Shifa, Girma (57217000284) ;Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman (57211144258) ;Tesfay, Fisaha Haile (57203977293) ;Tessema, Gizachew Assefa (57196316304) ;Thapa, Kiran (57216051128) ;Thomson, Alan J (57969994200) ;Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L (57194437700) ;Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611) ;Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534) ;Topor-Madry, Roman (57211182892) ;Topouzis, Fotis (57194262710) ;Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515) ;Troeger, Christopher (57195223624) ;Truelsen, Thomas (57202824565) ;Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie (57210953239) ;Tura, Abera Kenay (57226206382) ;Tyrovolas, Stefanos (57207793475) ;Ukwaja, Kingsley N (57202824584) ;Uneke, Chigozie Jesse (57202824589) ;Uthman, Olalekan A (23026328100) ;Vaezghasemi, Masoud (57195195568) ;Vasankari, Tommi (57200592416) ;Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales (57208202014) ;Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100) ;Verma, Raj Kumar (59595278200) ;Violante, Francesco S (7003555890) ;Vladimirov, Sergey K (57195959162) ;Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich (57211633239) ;Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778) ;Wang, Linhong (57303731300) ;Wang, Yanping (57215440165) ;Weichenthal, Scott (57202555239) ;Weiderpass, Elisabete (57205018947) ;Weintraub, Robert G (7006079405) ;Weiss, Daniel J (8609275600) ;Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895) ;Westerman, Ronny (57218361023) ;Widdowson, Marc-Alain (26429004600) ;Wijeratne, Tissa (14051317700) ;Williams, Thomas Neil (35430527200) ;Wiysonge, Charles Shey (6507441509) ;Wolfe, Charles D A (57202754705) ;Wolfe, Ingrid (57219151544) ;Won, Sungho (57207796874) ;Wubshet, Mamo (54409732600) ;Xiao, Qingyang (59797114300) ;Xu, Gelin (57203583113) ;Yadav, Ajit Kumar (57197675591) ;Yakob, Bereket (57203811497) ;Yano, Yuichiro (57196965200) ;Yaseri, Mehdi (23029507000) ;Ye, Pengpeng (57202839295) ;Yebyo, Henock Gebremedhin (57204699309) ;Yip, Paul (7102503720) ;Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657) ;Yoon, Seok-Jun (24823148900) ;Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000) ;Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344) ;Zaidi, Zoubida (57197376721) ;Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed (57203666922) ;Zeeb, Hajo (57203073012) ;Zhang, Hao (59062050200) ;Zhao, Yong (59798995400) ;Zheng, Yingfeng (58918045300) ;Zhou, Maigeng (57054557200) ;Zodpey, Sanjay (7003415080)Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.
