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Browsing by Author "Calina, Daniela (36451890700)"

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    Publication
    An updated pharmacological insight into calotropin as a potential therapeutic agent in cancer
    (2023)
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
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    Novakovic, Radmila (36947545500)
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    Grujic-Milanovic, Jelica (15753727600)
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    Ydyrys, Alibek (57203985421)
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    Ablaikhanova, Nurzhanat (57197818487)
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    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
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    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
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    Al-Omari, Basem (57219446421)
    Calotropin is a pharmacologically active compound isolated from milkweed plants like Calotropis procera, Calotropis gigantea, and Asclepias currasavica that belong to the Asclepiadaceae family. All of these plants are recognised as medical traditional plants used in Asian countries. Calotropin is identified as a highly potent cardenolide that has a similar chemical structure to cardiac glycosides (such as digoxin and digitoxin). During the last few years, cytotoxic and antitumor effects of cardenolides glycosides have been reported more frequently. Among cardenolides, calotropin is identified as the most promising agent. In this updated and comprehensive review, we aimed to analyze and discuss the specific mechanisms and molecular targets of calotropin in cancer treatment to open new perspectives for the adjuvant treatment of different types of cancer. The effects of calotropin on cancer have been extensively studied in preclinical pharmacological studies in vitro using cancer cell lines and in vivo in experimental animal models that have targeted antitumor mechanisms and anticancer signaling pathways. The analyzed information from the specialized literature was obtained from scientific databases until December 2022, mainly from PubMed/MedLine, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct databases using specific MeSH search terms. The results of our analysis demonstrate that calotropin can be a potential chemotherapeutic/chemopreventive adjunctive agent in cancer pharmacotherapeutic management. Copyright © 2023 Rajkovic, Novakovic, Grujic-Milanovic, Ydyrys, Ablaikhanova, Calina, Sharifi-Rad and Al-Omari.
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    Publication
    An updated pharmacological insight into calotropin as a potential therapeutic agent in cancer
    (2023)
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
    ;
    Novakovic, Radmila (36947545500)
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    Grujic-Milanovic, Jelica (15753727600)
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    Ydyrys, Alibek (57203985421)
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    Ablaikhanova, Nurzhanat (57197818487)
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    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
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    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
    ;
    Al-Omari, Basem (57219446421)
    Calotropin is a pharmacologically active compound isolated from milkweed plants like Calotropis procera, Calotropis gigantea, and Asclepias currasavica that belong to the Asclepiadaceae family. All of these plants are recognised as medical traditional plants used in Asian countries. Calotropin is identified as a highly potent cardenolide that has a similar chemical structure to cardiac glycosides (such as digoxin and digitoxin). During the last few years, cytotoxic and antitumor effects of cardenolides glycosides have been reported more frequently. Among cardenolides, calotropin is identified as the most promising agent. In this updated and comprehensive review, we aimed to analyze and discuss the specific mechanisms and molecular targets of calotropin in cancer treatment to open new perspectives for the adjuvant treatment of different types of cancer. The effects of calotropin on cancer have been extensively studied in preclinical pharmacological studies in vitro using cancer cell lines and in vivo in experimental animal models that have targeted antitumor mechanisms and anticancer signaling pathways. The analyzed information from the specialized literature was obtained from scientific databases until December 2022, mainly from PubMed/MedLine, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and Science Direct databases using specific MeSH search terms. The results of our analysis demonstrate that calotropin can be a potential chemotherapeutic/chemopreventive adjunctive agent in cancer pharmacotherapeutic management. Copyright © 2023 Rajkovic, Novakovic, Grujic-Milanovic, Ydyrys, Ablaikhanova, Calina, Sharifi-Rad and Al-Omari.
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    Publication
    Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Ababneh, Hazim S. (57371604000)
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    Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis (58492166600)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh (59152412000)
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    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
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    Abbastabar, Hedayat (57212441848)
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    Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H.A. (59128864400)
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    ElHafeez, Samar Abd (55551273300)
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    Abdelkader, Atef (57203858681)
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    Abdelmasseh, Michael (57356690000)
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    Abd-Elsalam, Sherief (57189845325)
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    Abdi, Parsa (58143779200)
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    Abdollahi, Mohammad (57940559800)
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    Abdoun, Meriem (20336514800)
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    Abdullahi, Auwal (56102934500)
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    Abebe, Mesfin (57223854886)
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    Abiodun, Olumide (7003859089)
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    Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Abouzid, Mohamed (57204445082)
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    Aboye, Girma Beressa (58714462800)
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    Abreu, Lucas Guimarães (55937631400)
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    Absalan, Abdorrahim (55207184600)
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    Abualruz, Hasan (57216547615)
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    Abubakar, Bilyaminu (56389502700)
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    Abukhadijah, Hana Jihad Jihad (57865346000)
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    Addolorato, Giovanni (7006562766)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Adetunji, Charles Oluwaseun (57192176047)
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    Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi (57192177427)
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    Adeyeoluwa, Temitayo Esther (57218094241)
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    Adha, Rishan (57216878096)
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    Adhikary, Ripon Kumar (55847469100)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Adzigbli, Leticia Akua (57899326600)
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    Afrashteh, Fatemeh (57254714200)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Afzal, Saira (7004381116)
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    Agbozo, Faith (57190337078)
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    Agodi, Antonella (36774232400)
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    Agrawal, Anurag (59030333500)
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    Agyemang-Duah, Williams (57190228903)
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    Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030)
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    Ahlstrom, Austin J. (58960999900)
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    Ahmad, Aqeel (57210400531)
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    Ahmad, Firdos (55545862620)
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    Ahmad, Muayyad M. (57208845008)
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    Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022)
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    Ahmad, Shahzaib (57221790990)
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    Ahmed, Anisuddin (25623145700)
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    Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030)
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    Ahmed, Haroon (57222316680)
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    Ahmed, Safoora (59126707900)
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    Ahmed, Syed Anees (56943018400)
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    Akinosoglou, Karolina (16318655800)
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    Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed (57222709271)
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    Akrami, Ashley E. (58558692000)
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    Akter, Ema (57251034300)
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    Awaidy, Salah Al (6508132710)
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    Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz (57201069050)
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    Al Mosa, Amjad S. (59130177400)
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    Al Ta'ani, Omar (58041829900)
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    Al Zaabi, Omar Ali Mohammed (57211669993)
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    Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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    Alajlani, Muaaz M. (57191247693)
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    Al-Ajlouni, Yazan (57192869693)
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    Alalalmeh, Samer O. (57997924800)
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    Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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    Alam, Khurshid (57203681299)
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    Alam, Noore (57202437697)
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    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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    Alam, Zufishan (57222957445)
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    Al-Amer, Rasmieh Mustafa (24470785500)
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    Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)
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    Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000)
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    Albakri, Almaza (59276206200)
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    Aldhaleei, Wafa A. (57201732596)
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    Aldridge, Robert W. (57209842885)
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    Alemohammad, Seyedeh Yasaman (58143670700)
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    Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta (57188818777)
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    Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed (57195533166)
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    Al-Hanawi, Mohammed Khaled (57195715156)
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    Ali, Abid (57822712300)
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    Ali, Amjad (57694808600)
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    Ali, Iman (57215117745)
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    Ali, Mohammed Usman (57726370200)
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    Ali, Rafat (57211501723)
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    Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait (57188688612)
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    Ali, Victor Ekoche (58914121000)
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    Ali, Waad (57216492465)
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    Al-Ibraheem, Akram (26428019900)
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    Alicandro, Gianfranco (36766719200)
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    Alif, Sheikh Mohammad (57190228064)
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    Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (57215378130)
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    Alla, François (6701580827)
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    Almazan, Joseph Uy (57202002090)
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    Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M. (8625547100)
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    Alqutaibi, Ahmed Yaseen (57144551500)
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    Alrawashdeh, Ahmad (57209326108)
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    Alrousan, Sahel Majed (57190412987)
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    Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah (23566537100)
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    Alsabri, Mohammed A. (59458399400)
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    Altaany, Zaid (35386241800)
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    Al-Tammemi, Ala'a B. (57216892163)
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    Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A. (9436438200)
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    Altirkawi, Khalid A. (57202762923)
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    Aluh, Deborah Oyine (57194111987)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Al-Wardat, Mohammad Sami (57221463260)
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    Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed (58143034700)
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    Aly, Hany (35571391500)
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    Alyahya, Mohammad Sharif (54984844500)
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    Alzoubi, Karem H. (8579544200)
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    Al-Zyoud, Walid (57202970794)
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    Amani, Reza (58822675000)
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    Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena (57194076624)
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    Amin, Tarek Tawfik (23007746000)
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    Amindarolzarbi, Alireza (58489784300)
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    Amiri, Sohrab (57195335343)
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    Amirzade-Iranaq, Mohammad Hosein (57194381354)
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    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Amugsi, Dickson A. (24461463800)
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    Ancuceanu, Robert (35728302200)
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    Anderlini, Deanna (57202506549)
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    Anderson, David B. (57206183701)
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    Andrade, Pedro Prata (58155276500)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400)
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    Andrews, Erick Adrian (59129813600)
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    Anil, Abhishek (58164007300)
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    Anil, Sneha (58960766900)
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    Anoushiravani, Amir (16038674600)
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    Antony, Catherine M. (57218881089)
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    Antriyandarti, Ernoiz (57201775415)
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    Anuoluwa, Boluwatife Stephen (59126777100)
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    Anvari, Saeid (55967502900)
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    Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419)
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    Appiah, Francis (57210715590)
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    Aquilano, Michele (57217532006)
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    Arab, Juan Pablo (35200409700)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Arafa, Elshaimaa A. (55888927000)
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    Arafat, Mosab (56380109600)
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    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Ardekani, Ali (57866334100)
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    Areda, Demelash (57193619525)
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    Aregawi, Brhane Berhe (57221588539)
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    Aremu, Abdulfatai (57209343383)
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    Ariffin, Hany (7004238528)
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    Arkew, Mesay (57224563101)
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    Armani, Keivan (59396073300)
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    Artamonov, Anton A. (57089921800)
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    Arumugam, Ashokan (38760929800)
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    Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad (57226675591)
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    Ashbaugh, Charlie (57218878439)
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    Astell-Burt, Thomas (36924540400)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Atorkey, Prince (57218950488)
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    Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi (57195251851)
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    Aujayeb, Avinash (6504403791)
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    Ausloos, Marcel (7101798907)
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    Awad, Hamzeh (55774352100)
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    Awotidebe, Adedapo Wasiu (56497030000)
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    Ayatollahi, Haleh (55991128900)
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    Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L. (7003927709)
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    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
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    Azeez, Fahad Khan (57215842297)
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    Azevedo, Rui M.S. (56210356600)
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    Badar, Muhammad (59429105700)
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    Baghdadi, Soroush (35290614300)
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    Bagheri, Mahboube (55907682300)
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    Bagheri, Nasser (14629872900)
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    Bai, Ruhai (57194506536)
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    Baker, Jennifer L. (8705509600)
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    Bako, Abdulaziz T. (57219007161)
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    Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar (56640778400)
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    Balcha, Wondu Feyisa (57218271765)
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    Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin (6603841869)
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    Barchitta, Martina (6505833697)
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    Bardideh, Erfan (57202979464)
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    Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514)
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    Bärnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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    Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat (57194494747)
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    Barteit, Sandra (56518335300)
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    Basiru, Afisu (57211397816)
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    Basso, João Diogo (58956732500)
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    Baune, Bernhard T. (6603807336)
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    Bayati, Mohsen (56906776500)
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    Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew (57305415100)
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    Behnoush, Amir Hossein (57221442364)
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    Behzadi, Payam (15756849700)
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    Beiranvand, Maryam (58665006600)
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    Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja (57219902458)
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    Belo, Luis (6602879850)
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    Beloukas, Apostolos (26654732600)
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    Bemanalizadeh, Maryam (57220071266)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Benzian, Habib (57195256480)
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    Beran, Azizullah (57209215350)
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    Berezvai, Zombor (56957219700)
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    Bernstein, Robert S. (56971681200)
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    Bettencourt, Paulo J.G. (56871313800)
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    Beyene, Kebede A. (57191108661)
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    Beyene, Melak Gedamu (58926349600)
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    Bhagat, Devidas S. (57327243700)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Bhala, Neeraj (15759186000)
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    Bhandari, Dinesh (57218875051)
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    Bharadwaj, Ravi (59272012500)
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    Bhardwaj, Nikha (57221591832)
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    Bhargava, Ashish (35788617400)
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    Bhaskar, Sonu (57192268582)
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    Bhat, Vivek (57222269450)
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    Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. (57203791372)
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    Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur (6602421376)
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    Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh (14043178800)
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    Bhatti, Manpreet S. (58956732700)
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    Bhuiyan, Mohiuddin Ahmed (15053110900)
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    Bisignano, Catherine (57211140934)
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    Biswas, Bijit (57200084942)
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    Bjørge, Tone (7004208100)
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    Bodolica, Virginia (22978699000)
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    Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan (58955490500)
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    Hashemi, Milad Bonakdar (57219272118)
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    Basara, Berrak Bora (23089934500)
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    Borhany, Hamed (57221404843)
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    Bosoka, Samuel Adolf (57209825116)
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    Boufous, Soufiane (6507794444)
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    Boxe, Christopher (59265945500)
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    Boyko, Edward J. (57204892815)
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    Brown, Colin Stewart (12809768100)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano (56373058500)
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    Barsbay, Mehtap Çakmak (58656443300)
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    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
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    Campos, Luciana Aparecida (35945445300)
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    Cao, Shujin (57203720185)
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    Capodici, Angelo (57226112836)
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    Carreras, Giulia (57221176357)
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    Carvalho, Márcia (7201413997)
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    Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio (12774601300)
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    Caye, Arthur (55361400800)
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    Cegolon, Luca (24449343400)
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    Cenko, Edina (55651505300)
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    Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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    Chadban, Steven J. (7003553037)
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    Chadwick, Joshua (58054784600)
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    Chakraborty, Chiranjib (57983357900)
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    Chakraborty, Sandip (59126608900)
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    Chalek, Julian (57203308287)
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    Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai (57203968284)
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    Chandy, Sara (8307771700)
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    Charan, Jaykaran (9251091600)
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    Chaudhary, Anis Ahmad (55419607600)
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    Chen, Haowei (58148584000)
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    Chen, Meng Xuan (57216954444)
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    Cherbuin, Nicolas (10139477400)
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    Chi, Gerald (56248142900)
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    Chichagi, Fatemeh (57326524500)
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    Chimoriya, Ritesh (57218336276)
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    Ching, Patrick R. (57226415941)
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    Chirinos-Caceres, Jesus Lorenzo (58188773000)
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    Chitheer, Abdulaal (57209314488)
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    Cho, Daniel Youngwhan (57192666710)
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    Cho, William C.S. (58556411300)
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    Choi, Dong-Woo (57201729586)
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    Chong, Bryan (57395645100)
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    Chong, Chean Lin (57202112816)
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    Chopra, Hitesh (57217071283)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Chung, Eric (22952996300)
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    Chutiyami, Muhammad (57202967671)
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    Clayton, Justin T. (59129430400)
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    Cogen, Rebecca M. (57215876285)
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    Cohen, Aaron J. (7404780942)
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    Columbus, Alyssa (57222467769)
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    Comfort, Haley (57218875721)
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    Conde, Joao (56992468300)
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    Connolly, Jon T. (59129051700)
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    Cooper, Ezra E.K. (59130178600)
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    Cortese, Samuele (8651678100)
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    Cruz-Martins, Natália (57203415019)
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    da Silva, Alanna Gomes (57201069954)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    Dai, Zhaoli (55515212800)
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    Dalton, Bronte E. (58492890000)
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    Damiani, Giovanni (57218701806)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Das, Jai K. (55644705500)
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    Das, Saswati (57209810658)
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    Das, Subasish (55531140000)
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    Dash, Nihar Ranjan (57194876029)
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    Pal, Pramod Kumar (35578625800)
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    Pan, Feng (57220873446)
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    Pan, Hai-Feng (35234356200)
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    Pando-Robles, Victoria (49964327500)
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    Pangaribuan, Helena Ullyartha (57217140455)
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    Panos, Georgios D. (55629406000)
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    Panos, Leonidas D. (57204439372)
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    Pantazopoulos, Ioannis (35574470700)
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    Stoian, Anca Mihaela Pantea (57200568822)
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    Parikh, Romil R. (57204150124)
    Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
    Bryazka, Dana (57200015057)
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    Reitsma, Marissa B (57208766315)
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    Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis (58492166600)
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    Abd Al Magied, Abdallah H A (59128864400)
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    Abdelkader, Atef (57203858681)
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    Abdollahi, Arash (58736039900)
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    Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel (57737618600)
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    Abu-Zaid, Ahmed (45861125100)
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    Adane, Mesafint Molla (57217891132)
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    Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi (57203334499)
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    Adegboye, Oyelola A (55270465600)
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    Adekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)
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    Adewuyi, Habeeb Omoponle (57170898700)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030)
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    Ahlstrom, Austin J (58960999900)
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    Ahmad, Aqeel (57210400531)
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    Ahmad, Danish (57202805842)
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    Ahmad, Muayyad M (57208845008)
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    Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022)
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    Ahmad, Shahzaib (57221790990)
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    Ajami, Marjan (26038910500)
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    Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed (57222709271)
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    Schlaich, Markus P (7003349164)
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    Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885)
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    Schuermans, Art (57418786200)
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    Schumacher, Austin E (57209276410)
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    Selvaraj, Siddharthan (57223264725)
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    Semreen, Mohammad H (15844345600)
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    Senthilkumaran, Subramanian (36191387000)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G (36248136000)
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    Sethi, Yashendra (57862678600)
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    Seyedi, Seyed Arsalan (57917244500)
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    Seylani, Allen (57222325334)
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    Shahbandi, Ataollah (57819635500)
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    Shalash, Ali S (36521728200)
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    Shanawaz, Mohd (57208665379)
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    Shankar, Abhishek (56644191400)
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    Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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    Sharifan, Amin (57224116591)
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    Sharma, Manoj (55468811500)
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    Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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    Shetty, Mahabalesh (7005020142)
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    Shetty, Pavanchand H (56366875300)
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    Shetty, Premalatha K (13608971500)
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    Shrestha, Sunil (56453947500)
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    Siddig, Emmanuel Edwar (55879555400)
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    Silva, João Pedro (57204703526)
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    Singh, Abhinav (16234867200)
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    Singh, Baljinder (55769747784)
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    Singh, Harmanjit (57215069796)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A (58179112300)
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    Singh, Paramdeep (57202809996)
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    Singh, Puneetpal (55463323200)
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    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
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    Singh, Virendra (57191848598)
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    Smith, Amanda E (56128141700)
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    Soriano, Joan B (58319978200)
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    Soyiri, Ireneous N (15052406400)
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    Spartalis, Michael (55862161100)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T (57212263335)
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    Stein, Dan J (55769747595)
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    Stevanović, Aleksandar (57224937156)
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    Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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    Thomas, Nikhil Kenny (57218603966)
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    Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera (57580368800)
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    Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj (58309502900)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (57214976930)
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    Villeneuve, Paul J (7102602822)
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    Violante, Francesco S (37105152000)
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    Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162)
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    Volovat, Simona Ruxandra (44961657900)
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    Wadood, Abdul (36098480800)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Walde, Mandaras Tariku (57851610900)
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    Wang, Shu (57216923903)
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    Wang, Yanzhong (59417336500)
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    Waqas, Muhammad (57220483194)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Willeit, Peter (57201562616)
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    Wojewodzic, Marcin W (15019918600)
    Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
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    Aali, Amirali (57819452000)
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    Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh (59152412000)
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    Ma, Stefan (7403723389)
    Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
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    Maled, Venkatesh (59317098500)
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    Malhotra, Kashish (57224508895)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
    Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
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    Khan, Moien Ab (57209800900)
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    Khan Suheb, Mahammed Ziauddin (58283489900)
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    Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh (57216530776)
    Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022
    (2023)
    Mensah, George A. (57196028147)
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    Fuster, Valentin (7202675508)
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    ;
    Sarode, Gargi Sachin (35362850500)
    ;
    Sarode, Sachin C. (26634224100)
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    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu (54407369300)
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    Sathyanarayan, Anudeep (58960979900)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Sayyah, Mehdi (10540414200)
    ;
    Schaarschmidt, Benedikt Michael (56312071100)
    ;
    Schuermans, Art (57418786200)
    [No abstract available]
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    Publication
    Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2023)
    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
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    Car, Lorainne Tudor (48561867100)
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    Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Ullah, Sana (56402784100)
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    Vacante, Marco (23037085900)
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    Valdez, Pascual R (57202115577)
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    Valizadeh, Rohollah (57192641339)
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    Van Boven, Job F M (53464198500)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Vaziri, Siavash (24460825100)
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    Violante, Francesco S (7003555890)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Wang, Ning (58498985500)
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    Wei, Melissa Y (8881342000)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Xu, Suowen (35303824800)
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    Xu, Xiaoyue (59560820600)
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    Yadav, Lalit (57211483937)
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    Yismaw, Yazachew (57217253497)
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    Yon, Dong Keon (57193675906)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yu, Yong (55628587954)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zahir, Mazyar (57226481652)
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    Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210)
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    Zareshahrabadi, Zahra (57211797911)
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    Zarrintan, Armin (55368002200)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zegeye, Zelalem Banjaw (58284791500)
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    Zhang, Yunquan (56568510200)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Larijani, Bagher (57205307740)
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    Farzadfar, Farshad (57195049611)
    Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Authors
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    Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
    Bhattacharjee, Natalia V. (57203791372)
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    Schumacher, Austin E. (57209276410)
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    Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh (59152412000)
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    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Al-Sabah, Salman Khalifah (23566537100)
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    Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A. (9436438200)
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    Ampomah, Irene Gyamfuah (57217031396)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
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    Ozten, Yaz (57842405200)
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    Mahesh Padukudru, P.A. (57195664371)
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    Fallahy, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan (57224307689)
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    Pan, Feng (57220873446)
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    Pan, Hai-Feng (35234356200)
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    Pana, Adrian (57191837583)
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    Panda, Paramjot (59078159400)
    Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
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    Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600)
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    Rahmani, Amir Masoud (57204588830)
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    Rahmanian, Vahid (55367908800)
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    Ram, Pradhum (55961669800)
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    Ranjha, Muhammad Modassar Ali Nawaz (57215671598)
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    Rao, Sowmya J (57195423591)
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    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
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    Rasul, Azad (56966434500)
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    Ratan, Zubair Ahmed (56769961300)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rawassizadeh, Reza (36634807900)
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    Razeghinia, Mohammad Sadegh (57203060460)
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    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
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    Regasa, Misganu Teshoma (57222862997)
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    Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600)
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    Reta, Melese Abate (57219956463)
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    Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900)
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    Rezapour, Aziz (55548281300)
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    Riad, Abanoub (57218221621)
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    Ripon, Rezaul Karim (57219948722)
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    Rudd, Kristina E (55584242800)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Sadeghian, Saeid (35209132200)
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    Saeed, Umar (36612315100)
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    Safaei, Mohsen (36612136800)
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    Safary, Azam (56070686400)
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    Safi, Sher Zaman (35620794800)
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    Sahebazzamani, Maryam (57350889700)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Sahoo, Harihar (44462008100)
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    Salahi, Saina (58023701500)
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    Salahi, Sarvenaz (57091566700)
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    Salari, Hedayat (55508243600)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Kafil, Hossein Samadi (16233382900)
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    Samy, Abdallah M (36973661300)
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    Sanadgol, Nima (36057144700)
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    Sankararaman, Senthilkumar (57210591338)
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    Sanmarchi, Francesco (57221791070)
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    Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Saya, Ganesh Kumar (55391007900)
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    Senthilkumaran, Subramanian (36191387000)
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    Seylani, Allen (57222325334)
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    Shah, Pritik A (57202065760)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shaker, Elaheh (57216727831)
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    Shakhmardanov, Murad Ziyaudinovich (59520959100)
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    Sharew, Mequannent Melaku (57224505062)
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    Sharifi-Razavi, Athena (56807201900)
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    Sharma, Purva (57861896700)
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    Sheikhi, Rahim Ali (39962437200)
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    Sheikhy, Ali (57223137774)
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    Shetty, Pavanchand H (56366875300)
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    Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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    Shin, Jae Il (57964880100)
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    Shirzad-Aski, Hesamaddin (36021125600)
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    Shivakumar, K.M. (57221603938)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Shorofi, Seyed Afshin (35086976700)
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    Shrestha, Sunil (56453947500)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Sidemo, Negussie Boti (57204638690)
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    Sikder, Mustafa Kamal (57222563102)
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    Silva, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues (11838952800)
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    Singh, Paramdeep (57202809996)
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    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
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    Siraj, Md Shahjahan (57216886120)
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    Siwal, Samarjeet Singh (56225532200)
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    Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981)
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    Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)
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    Socea, Bogdan (32267661900)
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    Solomon, Damtew Damtew (57205205685)
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    Song, Yimeng (57194728629)
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    Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T (57212263335)
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    Suleman, Muhammad (57196800921)
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    Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi (57226205764)
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    Sultana, Saima (57404748200)
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    Szócska, Miklós (13410278600)
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    Tabatabaeizadeh, Seyed-Amir (57194494579)
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    Tabish, Mohammad (57211184911)
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    Taheri, Majid (57196608691)
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    Taki, Elahe (56493050600)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Tat, Nathan Y (57820156400)
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    Tefera, Yibekal Manaye (57216210591)
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    Thiyagarajan, Arulmani (57208205338)
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    Tleyjeh, Imad I (8525790600)
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    Troeger, Christopher E (57195223624)
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    Umapathi, Krishna Kishore (57202507397)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valdez, Pascual R (57202115577)
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    Van Den Eynde, Jef (56507221200)
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    Van Doorn, H Rogier (56941604800)
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    Verras, Georgios-Ioannis (57226630938)
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    Viswanathan, Harimadhav (58024300400)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Waris, Abdul (57216356514)
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    Wassie, Gizachew Tadesse (57216988367)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Yaghoubi, Sajad (57194285048)
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    Yahya, Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya (57819809700)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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    Yigit, Arzu (57820497600)
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    Yigit, Vahit (57222328239)
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    Yon, Dong Keon (57193675906)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Zahir, Mazyar (57226481652)
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    Zaman, Burhan Abdullah (57209607964)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zheng, Peng (57213707656)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
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    Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723)
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    Hay, Simon I (7101875313)
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    Dolecek, Christiane (35784177100)
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    Sartorius, Benn (12788526800)
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    Murray, Christopher J L (57224556036)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
    Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
    Sharma, Rajesh (57201970364)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abd-Rabu, Rami (57214966967)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)
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    Acuna, Juan Manuel (56473433400)
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    Adhikari, Sangeet (57221715345)
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    Advani, Shailesh M. (56841222900)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Aghaie Meybodi, Mohamad (57188954519)
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    Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515)
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    Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)
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    Alanzi, Turki M. (55978240000)
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    Alhalaiqa, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji (54895003400)
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    Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad (57226675591)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Cho, William C.S. (58556411300)
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    Danielewicz, Anna (57222899679)
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    Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen (57204717669)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Dodangeh, Milad (57212454107)
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    Eghbalian, Fatemeh (23049330000)
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    Ekholuenetale, Michael (57189344745)
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    Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus (57204841448)
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    El Sayed, Iman (7004479194)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Fakhradiyev, Ildar Ravisovich (57210120213)
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    Farooque, Umar (57215323961)
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    Fatehizadeh, Ali (36782045000)
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    Fattahi, Hamed (57205063113)
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    Fattahi, Nima (56664347900)
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    Fereidoonnezhad, Masood (35490192400)
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    Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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    Fetensa, Getahun (57211853863)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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    Gaal, Peter Andras (55966171600)
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    Gad, Mohamed M. (57203749611)
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    Gallus, Silvano (7005387365)
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    Ghith, Nermin (55249750100)
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    Gholamalizadeh, Maryam (56017715600)
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    Gholizadeh Navashenaq, Jamshid (57925071300)
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    Gizaw, Abraham Tamirat (57193237477)
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    Glasbey, James C. (57195948986)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Goleij, Pouya (57217533849)
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    Gonfa, Kebebe Bekele (57221603337)
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    Gupta, Sapna (57217857409)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Haddadi, Rasool (55212384300)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Haque, Shafiul (35793732800)
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    Hariri, Sanam (57218554967)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hassanipour, Soheil (57191513993)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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    Holla, Ramesh (55270371800)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hostiuc, Mihaela (51763789200)
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    Househ, Mowafa (8667908000)
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    Huang, Junjie (57199198962)
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    Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300)
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    Iavicoli, Ivo (6603685479)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Islami, Farhad (56926442900)
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    Iwagami, Masao (54381883100)
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    Jahani, Mohammad Ali (56091589300)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    Javaheri, Tahereh (36102883000)
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    Jayawardena, Ranil (55010295200)
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    Jebai, Rime (57208482877)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    Joo, Tamas (57214777013)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Joukar, Farahnaz (26024213000)
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    Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy (21833993700)
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    Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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    Kalhor, Rohollah (55670548600)
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    Kamath, Ashwin (35724313100)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Karimi, Amirali (57441434100)
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    Kauppila, Joonas H. (37665210400)
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    Kazemi, Asma (56428669000)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khayamzadeh, Maryam (57212086295)
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    Khodadost, Mahmoud (56556917600)
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    Kim, Hanna (55950033500)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Koohestani, Hamid Reza (26423051700)
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    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
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    Koteeswaran, Rajasekaran (56685819200)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Krishnamoorthy, Yuvaraj (50461872200)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Manoj (57203913320)
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    Kumar, Vivek (57459719500)
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    La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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    Lami, Faris Hasan (57200737005)
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    Landires, Iván (15063040000)
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    Ledda, Caterina (54885410300)
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    Lee, Sang-Woong (57193130569)
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    Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700)
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    Lee, Yeong Yeh (56191149300)
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    Leong, Elvynna (56462346200)
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    Li, Bingyu (57205248886)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Szócska, Miklós (13410278600)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tabibian, Elnaz (56575191200)
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    Taheri, Majid (57196608691)
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    Taheri Abkenar, Yasaman (58765370800)
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    Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel (57356986200)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Wang, Cong (15924372200)
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    Woldemariam, Melat (57217034355)
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    Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein (26029029100)
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    Yang, Lin (57189045362)
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    Yazdanpanah, Fereshteh (57189471516)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yuce, Deniz (57514476300)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)
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    Zahir, Mazyar (57226481652)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zoladi, Mohammad (58034355000)
    Background: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9–80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5–73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8–71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0–37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6–34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6–34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation: The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
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    Seeher, Katrin Maria (34067802300)
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    Rahman, Md Obaidur (57222599251)
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    Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600)
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    Rahmani, Amir Masoud (57204588830)
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    Rahmani, Shayan (57226290079)
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    Youshanlouei, Hamed Rahmani (57745852100)
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    Rahmati, Masoud (55802046400)
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    Raj Moolambally, Sheetal (57199730439)
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    Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali (57118287000)
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    Ramadan, Hazem (55502685800)
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    Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran (58321724400)
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    Ramasubramani, Premkumar (59722112000)
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    Ramazanu, Sheena (57211945291)
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    Rancic, Nemanja (54941042300)
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    Rao, Indu Ramachandra (57195308442)
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    Rao, Sowmya J. (57195423591)
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    Rapaka, Deepthi (56394669700)
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    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
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    Rashid, Ahmed Mustafa (57463539300)
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    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
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    Rashidi Alavijeh, Mehran (58704651700)
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    Rasouli-Saravani, Ashkan (57222281825)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Razo, Christian (57203531684)
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    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
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    Bana, Atefe Rekabi (59027770000)
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    Remuzzi, Giuseppe (56466188600)
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    Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900)
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    Rezaei, Negar (57218820767)
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    Rezaei, Nima (57216077273)
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    Rezaeian, Mohsen (15053682700)
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    Rhee, Taeho Gregory (56373089300)
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    Riad, Abanoub (57218221621)
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    Robinson, Stephen R. (7402673969)
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    Rodrigues, Mónica (57206840982)
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    Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia (22936575000)
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    Roever, Leonardo (56641632800)
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    Rogowski, Emma L. B. (57218889998)
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    Romoli, Michele (56592186200)
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    Ronfani, Luca (58842981900)
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    Roy, Priyanka (58956986100)
    Background: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. Methods: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. Findings: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. Interpretation: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 World Health Organization
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019
    (2023)
    Wu, Dongze (56739661300)
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    Jin, Yingzhao (58069335700)
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    Xing, Yuhan (57195448289)
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    Abate, Melsew Dagne (57926242100)
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    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab (57441432300)
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    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
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    Abdelmasseh, Michael (57356690000)
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    Abdollahifar, Mohammad-Amin (56117187400)
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    Abdulah, Deldar Morad (57200190808)
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    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
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    Abedi, Vida (36116538600)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Abuabara, Katrina (6507310339)
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    Abyadeh, Morteza (57195152244)
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    Addo, Isaac Yeboah (56305995900)
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    Adeniji, Kayode Nelson (58627736800)
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    Adepoju, Abiola Victor (57201300225)
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    Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun (57212196361)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Afarideh, Mohsen (56227034300)
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    Aghamiri, Shahin (57208014122)
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    Agodi, Antonella (36774232400)
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    Agrawal, Anurag (59030333500)
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    Arriagada, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera (58651413400)
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    Ahmad, Aqeel (57210400531)
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    Ahmad, Danish (57202805842)
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    Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022)
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    Ahmad, Sohail (57214884975)
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    Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515)
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    Ahmed, Ali (57201189007)
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    Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030)
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    Aithala, Janardhana P. (57991341700)
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    Ajadi, Abdullateef Abiodun (57196084405)
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    Ajami, Marjan (26038910500)
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    Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa (57214720242)
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    Alahdab, Fares (55135922900)
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    AlBataineh, Mohammad T. (57217172834)
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    Alemi, Sharifullah (57218536120)
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    Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed (57195533166)
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    Ali, Liaqat (55646005400)
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    Alif, Sheikh Mohammad (57190228064)
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    Almazan, Joseph Uy (57202002090)
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    Almustanyir, Sami (57217589155)
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    Alqahtani, Jaber S. (57202039470)
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    Alqasmi, Ibrahim (57224811959)
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    Altaf, Ihsan Ullah Khan (57159872400)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
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    Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed (58143034700)
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    Aly, Hany (35571391500)
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    Amani, Reza (58822675000)
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    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Amusa, Ganiyu Adeniyi (36934039400)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Ansar, Adnan (57196006846)
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    Ansariniya, Hossein (57209565186)
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    Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419)
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    Arefnezhad, Reza (57209234011)
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    Arulappan, Judie (57224210161)
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    Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mohammad (57226675591)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Atata, Jamila Abdulhamid (57203482088)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Atlaw, Daniel (57223016646)
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    Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi (57195251851)
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    Aujayeb, Avinash (6504403791)
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    Ayatollahi, Haleh (55991128900)
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    Azzam, Ahmed Y. (57208274797)
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    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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    Bagherieh, Sara (57225879659)
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    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
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    Bantie, Berihun Bantie (57446430900)
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    Barchitta, Martina (6505833697)
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    Bardhan, Mainak (57819452400)
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    Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn (57193065514)
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    Barone-Adesi, Francesco (8722189200)
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    Batra, Kavita (57219649874)
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    Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew (57305415100)
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    Behnoush, Amir Hossein (57221442364)
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    Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal (55639511900)
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    Bemanalizadeh, Maryam (57220071266)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Beyene, Kebede A. (57191108661)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
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    Bhaskar, Sonu (57192268582)
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    Bhat, Ajay Nagesh (57819974900)
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    Bitaraf, Saeid (57201361911)
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    Bitra, Veera R. (56394367200)
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    Boloor, Archith (36192710300)
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    Bora, Kaustubh (56950543600)
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    Botelho, João Silva (59843789000)
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    Buchbinder, Rachelle (7004966093)
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    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
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    Cámera, Luis Alberto (7003354253)
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    Carvalho, Andre F. (57214830066)
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    Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai (57203968284)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Abebe, Endeshaw Chekol (57217859556)
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    Chichagi, Fatemeh (57326524500)
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    Choi, Sungchul (59102457100)
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    Chou, Tzu-Chieh (7401865000)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Coberly, Kaleb (58139389800)
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    Costa, Vera Marisa (17134373000)
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    Couto, Rosa A. S. (56132363700)
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    Cruz-Martins, Natália (57203415019)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    Damiani, Giovanni (57218701806)
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    Dascalu, Ana Maria (16038545200)
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    Dashti, Mohsen (57372394700)
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    Debela, Sisay Abebe (57209640708)
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    Dellavalle, Robert Paul (7003806771)
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    Demetriades, Andreas K. (7004877691)
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    Demlash, Alemayehu Anley (58627555500)
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    Deng, Xinlei (57193350646)
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    Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai (57218293291)
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    Desai, Rupak (57188681812)
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    Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman (7102176358)
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    Dey, Sourav (58491196100)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57226838689)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Dibas, Mahmoud (57207931214)
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    Dinis-Oliveira, Ricardo Jorge (14053913800)
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    Diress, Mengistie (57222089627)
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    Do, Thanh Chi (58537658400)
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    Doan, Duy Khanh (58627020100)
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    Dodangeh, Masoud (57212454106)
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    Dodangeh, Milad (57212454107)
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    Dongarwar, Deepa (57205144001)
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    Dube, John (57356760200)
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    Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian (56155198800)
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    Ed-Dra, Abdelaziz (56910293500)
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    Edinur, Hisham Atan (57287676500)
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    Eissazade, Negin (57220073748)
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    Ekholuenetale, Michael (57189344745)
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    Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus (57204841448)
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    Elemam, Noha Mousaad (56442766900)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Elmehrath, Ahmed O. (57212512069)
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    Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou (57194788994)
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    Emamverdi, Mehdi (57216906536)
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    Emeto, Theophilus I. (36522397000)
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    Esayas, Hawi Leul (57748494900)
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    Eshetu, Habitu Birhan (57709933000)
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    Etaee, Farshid (57193773903)
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    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis (50861113000)
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    Faghani, Shahriar (57217388203)
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    Fakhradiyev, Ildar Ravisovich (57210120213)
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    Fatehizadeh, Ali (36782045000)
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    Fathi, Mobina (57216507361)
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    Feizkhah, Alireza (57226144762)
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    Fekadu, Ginenus (57207252461)
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    Fereidouni, Mohammad (8336398000)
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    Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)
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    Fernandes, João C. (35274726800)
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    Ferrara, Pietro (58098198000)
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    Fetensa, Getahun (57211853863)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Foroutan, Behzad (15756767300)
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    Foroutan, Masoud (58948371300)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gemeda, Belete Negese Belete (57221750115)
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    Ghamari, Seyyed-Hadi (57207567632)
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    Ghasemi, MohammadReza (57222125520)
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    Gholamalizadeh, Maryam (56017715600)
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    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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    Gillum, Richard F. (7103181331)
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    Goldust, Mohamad (38761345300)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Goleij, Pouya (57217533849)
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    Golinelli, Davide (57194230279)
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    Goudarzi, Houman (55606092000)
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    Guan, Shi-Yang (56982445100)
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    Guo, Yang (58628099000)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Haddadi, Rasool (55212384300)
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    Hadi, Najah R. (40461430800)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Haque, Shafiul (35793732800)
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    Hasan, Ikramul (57218312454)
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    Hashempour, Reza (57210358866)
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    Hassan, Amr (55618204400)
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    Hassan, Treska S. (57407078400)
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    Hassanzadeh, Sara (58003469800)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Haubold, Johannes (57225257476)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza (57204841868)
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    Herteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)
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    Hessami, Kamran (57215420186)
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    Hezam, Kamal (57199187791)
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    Hiraike, Yuta (55701690300)
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    Holla, Ramesh (55270371800)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Huynh, Hong-Han (58260528100)
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    Hwang, Bing-Fang (7201453928)
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    Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Iranmehr, Arad (57202736583)
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    Iravanpour, Farideh (57160265000)
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    Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900)
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    Iwagami, Masao (54381883100)
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    Iwu, Chidozie C. D. (57204657478)
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    Jacob, Louis (56779678900)
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    Jafarinia, Morteza (57194211648)
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    Jafarzadeh, Abdollah (32667811600)
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    Jahankhani, Kasra (58165039000)
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    Jahrami, Haitham (24391114300)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    Jamshidi, Elham (57217795317)
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    Jani, Chinmay T. (57218651211)
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    Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar (12791073000)
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    Jayapal, Sathish Kumar (57202019648)
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    Jayaram, Shubha (57221589240)
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    Jeganathan, Jayakumar (55312958400)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Joseph, Abel (58715051500)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma (58491197900)
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    Vaishali, K. (57222526820)
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    Kaambwa, Billingsley (25521610300)
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    Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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    Kaliyadan, Feroze (16836323500)
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    Kalroozi, Fatemeh (57223133966)
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    Kamal, Vineet Kumar (6505970118)
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    Kandel, Amit (57200197349)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Kanungo, Srikanta (56669484200)
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    Karami, Jafar (56717737700)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Karimi, Hanie (57801947200)
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    Kasraei, Hengameh (57194520224)
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    Kazemian, Sina (57221397269)
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    Kebede, Sewnet Adem (57215661049)
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    Keikavoosi-Arani, Leila (58630116900)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khamesipour, Faham (55236513800)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khan, Imteyaz A. (57407078900)
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    Khan, Maseer (57215721758)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Khan, Moien A. B. (57209800900)
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    Khan, Muhammad Arslan (58627021300)
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    Khatatbeh, Haitham (57218610483)
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    Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad (26421267800)
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    Khateri, Sorour (57192959720)
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    Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat (57132486000)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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    Koh, Hyun Yong (58803632600)
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    Kolkhir, Pavel (56076677500)
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    Korzh, Oleksii (7004882843)
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    Kotnis, Ashwin Laxmikant (8870030200)
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    Koul, Parvaiz A. (14022262900)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (59269920500)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Kuddus, Mohammed (8596487800)
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    Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha Vishnutheertha (58587146700)
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    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
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    Kundu, Satyajit (57214314942)
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    Kurmi, Om P. (57219034567)
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    Vecchia, Carlo La (36063266200)
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    Lahariya, Chandrakant (13205447400)
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    Laksono, Tri (58537561100)
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    Lám, Judit (7201973410)
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    Latief, Kamaluddin (26428870800)
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    Lauriola, Paolo (7004129174)
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    Lawal, Basira Kankia (57217130752)
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    Le, Thao Thi Thu (57736182100)
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    Le, Trang Thi Bich (57834737700)
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    Lee, Munjae (58964400000)
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    Lee, Seung Won (57223118056)
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    Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700)
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    Lee, Yo Han (57193632340)
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    Lenzi, Jacopo (57200000691)
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    Levi, Miriam (54893035000)
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    Li, Wei (59638602600)
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    Ligade, Virendra S. (15769728900)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Liu, Gang (57189061134)
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    Liu, Xuefeng (37050047900)
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    Llanaj, Erand (57204154387)
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    Lo, Chun-Han (57216207024)
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    Machado, Vanessa Sintra (57194831389)
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    Maghazachi, Azzam A. (7004562043)
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    Mahmoud, Mansour Adam (55461775000)
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    Mai, Tuan A. (58627021500)
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    Majeed, Azeem (57217722657)
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    Sanaye, Pantea Majma (57823873400)
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    Rad, Elaheh Malakan (55105272200)
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    Malhotra, Kashish (57224508895)
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    Malta, Deborah Carvalho (15835283500)
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    Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni (7006357517)
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    Mathioudakis, Alexander G. (55452222600)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
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    Pak, Anton (57190172434)
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    Pashaei, Ava (59196552700)
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    Patel, Jay (59222700400)
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    Pathan, Aslam Ramjan (57202252987)
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    Paudel, Uttam (56600660600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Pensato, Umberto (57210585166)
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    Pereira, David M. (57217991596)
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    Pereira, Jeevan (57218878130)
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    Pereira, Maria Odete (42462181200)
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    Pereira, Renato B. (55802371953)
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    Peres, Mario F. P. (7006723305)
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    Perianayagam, Arokiasamy (15053062900)
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    Perna, Simone (57202419601)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Pezeshki, Parmida Sadat (57222013905)
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    Pham, Hoang Tran (58627023500)
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    Philip, Anil K. (14042434800)
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    Piradov, Michael A. (7003731802)
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    Podder, Indrashis (56347339700)
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    Podder, Vivek (57201487580)
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    Poddighe, Dimitri (14623163000)
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    Prates, Elton Junio Sady (57211768063)
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    Qattea, Ibrahim (57222260346)
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    Radfar, Amir (57215049222)
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    Raee, Pourya (57201070773)
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    Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200)
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    Raggi, Alberto (8514468700)
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    Rahim, Fakher (23052247800)
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    Rahimi, Mehran (57217084918)
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    Rahimifard, Mahban (55051387600)
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    Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446)
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    Rahman, Md Obaidur (57222599251)
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    Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur (57208867497)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600)
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    Rahmani, Amir Masoud (57204588830)
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    Rahmani, Mohamed (7006788989)
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    Rahmani, Shayan (57226290079)
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    Rahmanian, Vahid (55367908800)
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    Ramasubramani, Premkumar (59722112000)
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    Rancic, Nemanja (54941042300)
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    Rao, Indu Ramachandra (57195308442)
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    Rashedi, Sina (57222342404)
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    Rashid, Ahmed Mustafa (57463539300)
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    Ravikumar, Nakul (59020967700)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
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    Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900)
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    Rezaei, Negar (57218820767)
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    Rezaei, Nima (57216077273)
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    Rezaeian, Mohsen (15053682700)
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    Ribeiro, Daniela (25626469800)
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    Rodrigues, Mónica (57206840982)
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    Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia (22936575000)
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    Roever, Leonardo (57210591685)
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    Romero-Rodríguez, Esperanza (57189989890)
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    Saad, Aly M. A. (56740147200)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Sadeghian, Saeid (35209132200)
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    Saeed, Umar (36612315100)
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    Safary, Azam (56070686400)
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    Safdarian, Mahdi (57203849024)
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    Safi, Sher Zaman (35620794800)
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    Saghazadeh, Amene (55634259200)
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    Sagoe, Dominic (55505787200)
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    Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Saheb (56161060900)
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    Sharif-Askari, Narjes Saheb (56160973000)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Sahoo, Harihar (44462008100)
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    Sahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600)
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    Sajid, Mirza Rizwan (35249305600)
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    Sakhamuri, Sateesh (56901179300)
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    Sakshaug, Joseph W. (35300521200)
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    Saleh, Mohamed A. (7201797507)
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    Salehi, Leili (56798595000)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Farrokhi, Amir Salek (58192107000)
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    Samadzadeh, Sara (25951754100)
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    Samargandy, Saad (57204440040)
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    Samieefar, Noosha (57220043667)
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    Samy, Abdallah M. (36973661300)
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    Sanadgol, Nima (36057144700)
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    Sanjeev, Rama Krishna (57076705500)
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    Sawhney, Monika (57217153893)
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    Saya, Ganesh Kumar (55391007900)
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    Schuermans, Art (57418786200)
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    Senthilkumaran, Subramanian (36191387000)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G. (36248136000)
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    Sethi, Yashendra (57862678600)
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    Shafie, Mahan (57221374072)
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    Shah, Humaira (57196886836)
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    Shahid, Izza (57207033505)
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    Shahid, Samiah (57208126144)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sharfaei, Sadaf (57204003245)
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    Sharma, Manoj (55468811500)
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    Shayan, Maryam (57209496707)
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    Shehata, Hatem Samir (55998932300)
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    Sheikh, Aziz (7202522962)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
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    Shin, Jae Il (57964880100)
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    Shirkoohi, Reza (12776374400)
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    Shitaye, Nebiyu Aniley (57196030959)
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    Shivakumar, K.M. (57221603938)
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    Shivarov, Velizar (15623607900)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Siabani, Soraya (25227131300)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Siddig, Emmanuel Edwar (55879555400)
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    Simpson, Colin R. (56018813700)
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    Sinaei, Ehsan (57193155429)
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    Singh, Harpreet (57215069784)
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    Singh, Inderbir (7401774846)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (58179112300)
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    Singh, Paramdeep (57202809996)
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    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
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    Siraj, Md Shahjahan (57216886120)
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    Sohag, Abdullah Al Mamun (57204421562)
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    Solanki, Ranjan (58824811500)
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    Solikhah, Solikhah (57193766834)
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    Solomon, Yonatan (57220875005)
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    Soltani-Zangbar, Mohammad Sadegh (57189099987)
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    Sun, Jing (55547135859)
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    Szeto, Mindy D. (57218347447)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (57441540700)
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    Tabatabaei, Seyyed Mohammad (55935372700)
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    Tabish, Mohammad (57211184911)
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    Taheri, Ensiyeh (54997206100)
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    Tahvildari, Azin (57211386956)
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    Talaat, Iman M. (7801465176)
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    Lukenze Tamuzi, Jacques J. L. (58627023700)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Tat, Nathan Y. (57820156400)
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    Oliaee, Razieh Tavakoli (57070503900)
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    Tavasol, Arian (57385937100)
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    Temsah, Mohamad-Hani (56115852000)
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    Thangaraju, Pugazhenthan (55854329500)
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    Tharwat, Samar (57192417685)
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    Tibebu, Nigusie Selomon (57221083637)
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    Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera (57580368800)
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    Tillawi, Tala (58494559200)
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    Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer (57194055872)
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    Tiyuri, Amir (57201850751)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Tripathi, Manjari (7007046120)
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    Tsegay, Guesh Mebrahtom (57221594727)
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    Tualeka, Abdul Rohim (36447791600)
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    Ty, Sree Sudha (57682292500)
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    Ubah, Chukwudi S. (57224538923)
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    Ullah, Saif (57219395828)
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    Ullah, Sana (56402784100)
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    Umair, Muhammad (56641365200)
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    Umakanthan, Srikanth (56814926400)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad (58492413200)
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    Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj (58309502900)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valizadeh, Rohollah (57192641339)
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    Varthya, Shoban Babu (56586223000)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (57214976930)
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    Verras, Georgios-Ioannis (57226630938)
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    Villafañe, Jorge Hugo (57197861057)
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    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
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    Vo, Danh Cao (58492171300)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Waris, Abdul (57216356514)
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    Welegebrial, Brhane Gebrehiwot (57793580700)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Wickramasinghe, Dakshitha Praneeth (37099212100)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Willekens, Barbara (56009079900)
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    Woldegeorgis, Beshada Zerfu (57807594900)
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    Woldemariam, Melat (57217034355)
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    Xiao, Hong (57214631433)
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    Yada, Dereje Y. (58492171400)
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    Yahya, Galal (55971917800)
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    Yang, Lin (57189045362)
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    Yazdanpanah, Fereshteh (57189471516)
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    Yon, Dong Keon (57193675906)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    You, Yuyi (49865138500)
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    Zahir, Mazyar (57226481652)
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    Zaidi, Syed Saoud (57218882927)
    ;
    Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zeineddine, Mohammad A. (57427289500)
    ;
    Zemedikun, Dawit T. (57202130072)
    ;
    Zeru, Naod Gebrekrstos (58492660500)
    ;
    Zhang, Chen (59799501900)
    ;
    Zhao, Hanqing (59742707300)
    ;
    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
    ;
    Zielińska, Magdalena (58491440100)
    ;
    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
    ;
    Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723)
    ;
    Guo, Cui (57196000764)
    ;
    Tam, Laishan (7005156352)
    Background: The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings: In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation: The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding: The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital ( 2022QN38). © 2023 The Author(s)
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    Publication
    Lifestyle, Oxidative Stress, and Antioxidants: Back and Forth in the Pathophysiology of Chronic Diseases
    (2020)
    Sharifi-Rad, Mehdi (57203977214)
    ;
    Anil Kumar, Nanjangud V. (57219651252)
    ;
    Zucca, Paolo (18042764400)
    ;
    Varoni, Elena Maria (37027445700)
    ;
    Dini, Luciana (7006426287)
    ;
    Panzarini, Elisa (6506921126)
    ;
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
    ;
    Tsouh Fokou, Patrick Valere (56725643100)
    ;
    Azzini, Elena (6602756677)
    ;
    Peluso, Ilaria (36772489700)
    ;
    Prakash Mishra, Abhay (37089307400)
    ;
    Nigam, Manisha (23492764600)
    ;
    El Rayess, Youssef (48461164900)
    ;
    Beyrouthy, Marc El (35268044800)
    ;
    Polito, Letizia (56677929500)
    ;
    Iriti, Marcello (6506548774)
    ;
    Martins, Natália (57203415019)
    ;
    Martorell, Miquel (57211415589)
    ;
    Docea, Anca Oana (55507263900)
    ;
    Setzer, William N. (7003551395)
    ;
    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
    ;
    Cho, William C. (58556411300)
    ;
    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
    Oxidative stress plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, neurodegenerative diseases, and cancer. Long term exposure to increased levels of pro-oxidant factors can cause structural defects at a mitochondrial DNA level, as well as functional alteration of several enzymes and cellular structures leading to aberrations in gene expression. The modern lifestyle associated with processed food, exposure to a wide range of chemicals and lack of exercise plays an important role in oxidative stress induction. However, the use of medicinal plants with antioxidant properties has been exploited for their ability to treat or prevent several human pathologies in which oxidative stress seems to be one of the causes. In this review we discuss the diseases in which oxidative stress is one of the triggers and the plant-derived antioxidant compounds with their mechanisms of antioxidant defenses that can help in the prevention of these diseases. Finally, both the beneficial and detrimental effects of antioxidant molecules that are used to reduce oxidative stress in several human conditions are discussed. © Copyright © 2020 Sharifi-Rad, Anil Kumar, Zucca, Varoni, Dini, Panzarini, Rajkovic, Tsouh Fokou, Azzini, Peluso, Prakash Mishra, Nigam, El Rayess, Beyrouthy, Polito, Iriti, Martins, Martorell, Docea, Setzer, Calina, Cho and Sharifi-Rad.
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    Lifestyle, Oxidative Stress, and Antioxidants: Back and Forth in the Pathophysiology of Chronic Diseases
    (2020)
    Sharifi-Rad, Mehdi (57203977214)
    ;
    Anil Kumar, Nanjangud V. (57219651252)
    ;
    Zucca, Paolo (18042764400)
    ;
    Varoni, Elena Maria (37027445700)
    ;
    Dini, Luciana (7006426287)
    ;
    Panzarini, Elisa (6506921126)
    ;
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
    ;
    Tsouh Fokou, Patrick Valere (56725643100)
    ;
    Azzini, Elena (6602756677)
    ;
    Peluso, Ilaria (36772489700)
    ;
    Prakash Mishra, Abhay (37089307400)
    ;
    Nigam, Manisha (23492764600)
    ;
    El Rayess, Youssef (48461164900)
    ;
    Beyrouthy, Marc El (35268044800)
    ;
    Polito, Letizia (56677929500)
    ;
    Iriti, Marcello (6506548774)
    ;
    Martins, Natália (57203415019)
    ;
    Martorell, Miquel (57211415589)
    ;
    Docea, Anca Oana (55507263900)
    ;
    Setzer, William N. (7003551395)
    ;
    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
    ;
    Cho, William C. (58556411300)
    ;
    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
    Oxidative stress plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, neurodegenerative diseases, and cancer. Long term exposure to increased levels of pro-oxidant factors can cause structural defects at a mitochondrial DNA level, as well as functional alteration of several enzymes and cellular structures leading to aberrations in gene expression. The modern lifestyle associated with processed food, exposure to a wide range of chemicals and lack of exercise plays an important role in oxidative stress induction. However, the use of medicinal plants with antioxidant properties has been exploited for their ability to treat or prevent several human pathologies in which oxidative stress seems to be one of the causes. In this review we discuss the diseases in which oxidative stress is one of the triggers and the plant-derived antioxidant compounds with their mechanisms of antioxidant defenses that can help in the prevention of these diseases. Finally, both the beneficial and detrimental effects of antioxidant molecules that are used to reduce oxidative stress in several human conditions are discussed. © Copyright © 2020 Sharifi-Rad, Anil Kumar, Zucca, Varoni, Dini, Panzarini, Rajkovic, Tsouh Fokou, Azzini, Peluso, Prakash Mishra, Nigam, El Rayess, Beyrouthy, Polito, Iriti, Martins, Martorell, Docea, Setzer, Calina, Cho and Sharifi-Rad.
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    Pharmacological effects and therapeutic potential of natural compounds in neuropsychiatric disorders: An update
    (2022)
    Asgharian, Parina (55847905400)
    ;
    Quispe, Cristina (15842197600)
    ;
    Herrera-Bravo, Jesús (56041598900)
    ;
    Sabernavaei, Mahsa (56135769700)
    ;
    Hosseini, Kamran (57226155096)
    ;
    Forouhandeh, Haleh (54414152500)
    ;
    Ebrahimi, Tahereh (57211623796)
    ;
    Sharafi-Badr, Paria (57219231159)
    ;
    Tarhriz, Vahideh (54399402300)
    ;
    Soofiyani, Saiedeh Razi (55886832700)
    ;
    Helon, Paweł (57192311859)
    ;
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
    ;
    Durna Daştan, Sevgi (55418374600)
    ;
    Docea, Anca Oana (55507263900)
    ;
    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
    ;
    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
    ;
    Koch, Wojciech (55203768600)
    ;
    Cho, William C. (58556411300)
    Neuropsychiatric diseases are a group of disorders that cause significant morbidity and disability. The symptoms of psychiatric disorders include anxiety, depression, eating disorders, autism spectrum disorders (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and conduct disorder. Various medicinal plants are frequently used as therapeutics in traditional medicine in different parts of the world. Nowadays, using medicinal plants as an alternative medication has been considered due to their biological safety. Despite the wide range of medications, many patients are unable to tolerate the side effects and eventually lose their response. By considering the therapeutic advantages of medicinal plants in the case of side effects, patients may prefer to use them instead of chemical drugs. Today, the use of medicinal plants in traditional medicine is diverse and increasing, and these plants are a precious heritage for humanity. Investigation about traditional medicine continues, and several studies have indicated the basic pharmacology and clinical efficacy of herbal medicine. In this article, we discuss five of the most important and common psychiatric illnesses investigated in various studies along with conventional therapies and their pharmacological therapies. For this comprehensive review, data were obtained from electronic databases such as MedLine/PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, EMBASE, DynaMed Plus, ScienceDirect, and TRIP database. Preclinical pharmacology studies have confirmed that some bioactive compounds may have beneficial therapeutic effects in some common psychiatric disorders. The mechanisms of action of the analyzed biocompounds are presented in detail. The bioactive compounds analyzed in this review are promising phytochemicals for adjuvant and complementary drug candidates in the pharmacotherapy of neuropsychiatric diseases. Although comparative studies have been carefully reviewed in the preclinical pharmacology field, no clinical studies have been found to confirm the efficacy of herbal medicines compared to FDA-approved medicines for the treatment of mental disorders. Therefore, future clinical studies are needed to accelerate the potential use of natural compounds in the management of these diseases. Copyright © 2022 Asgharian, Quispe, Herrera-Bravo, Sabernavaei, Hosseini, Forouhandeh, Ebrahimi, Sharafi-Badr, Tarhriz, Soofiyani, Helon, Rajkovic, Durna Daştan, Docea, Sharifi-Rad, Calina, Koch and Cho.
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    Pharmacological effects and therapeutic potential of natural compounds in neuropsychiatric disorders: An update
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    Asgharian, Parina (55847905400)
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    Quispe, Cristina (15842197600)
    ;
    Herrera-Bravo, Jesús (56041598900)
    ;
    Sabernavaei, Mahsa (56135769700)
    ;
    Hosseini, Kamran (57226155096)
    ;
    Forouhandeh, Haleh (54414152500)
    ;
    Ebrahimi, Tahereh (57211623796)
    ;
    Sharafi-Badr, Paria (57219231159)
    ;
    Tarhriz, Vahideh (54399402300)
    ;
    Soofiyani, Saiedeh Razi (55886832700)
    ;
    Helon, Paweł (57192311859)
    ;
    Rajkovic, Jovana (57194111917)
    ;
    Durna Daştan, Sevgi (55418374600)
    ;
    Docea, Anca Oana (55507263900)
    ;
    Sharifi-Rad, Javad (56022647300)
    ;
    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
    ;
    Koch, Wojciech (55203768600)
    ;
    Cho, William C. (58556411300)
    Neuropsychiatric diseases are a group of disorders that cause significant morbidity and disability. The symptoms of psychiatric disorders include anxiety, depression, eating disorders, autism spectrum disorders (ASD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, and conduct disorder. Various medicinal plants are frequently used as therapeutics in traditional medicine in different parts of the world. Nowadays, using medicinal plants as an alternative medication has been considered due to their biological safety. Despite the wide range of medications, many patients are unable to tolerate the side effects and eventually lose their response. By considering the therapeutic advantages of medicinal plants in the case of side effects, patients may prefer to use them instead of chemical drugs. Today, the use of medicinal plants in traditional medicine is diverse and increasing, and these plants are a precious heritage for humanity. Investigation about traditional medicine continues, and several studies have indicated the basic pharmacology and clinical efficacy of herbal medicine. In this article, we discuss five of the most important and common psychiatric illnesses investigated in various studies along with conventional therapies and their pharmacological therapies. For this comprehensive review, data were obtained from electronic databases such as MedLine/PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, EMBASE, DynaMed Plus, ScienceDirect, and TRIP database. Preclinical pharmacology studies have confirmed that some bioactive compounds may have beneficial therapeutic effects in some common psychiatric disorders. The mechanisms of action of the analyzed biocompounds are presented in detail. The bioactive compounds analyzed in this review are promising phytochemicals for adjuvant and complementary drug candidates in the pharmacotherapy of neuropsychiatric diseases. Although comparative studies have been carefully reviewed in the preclinical pharmacology field, no clinical studies have been found to confirm the efficacy of herbal medicines compared to FDA-approved medicines for the treatment of mental disorders. Therefore, future clinical studies are needed to accelerate the potential use of natural compounds in the management of these diseases. Copyright © 2022 Asgharian, Quispe, Herrera-Bravo, Sabernavaei, Hosseini, Forouhandeh, Ebrahimi, Sharafi-Badr, Tarhriz, Soofiyani, Helon, Rajkovic, Durna Daştan, Docea, Sharifi-Rad, Calina, Koch and Cho.
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    The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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    Da Cunha, Amanda Ramos (57214078354)
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    Compton, Kelly (57205330541)
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    Xu, Rixing (57204186670)
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    Mishra, Rashmi (59585097000)
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    Drangsholt, Mark Thomas (6701699849)
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    Antunes, Jose Leopoldo Ferreira (7005765907)
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    Kerr, Alexander R. (24477055900)
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    Acheson, Alistair R. (57912642400)
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    Fu, Weijia (57218882680)
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    Dean, Frances E. (57211949247)
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    Pennini, Alyssa (57210820174)
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    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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    Alimohamadi, Yousef (56069375900)
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    Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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    Al-Maweri, Sadeq Ali (36023535700)
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    Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza (57192807651)
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    Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo (57200625209)
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    Asaad, Malke (57209296864)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Attia, Sameh (57191255716)
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    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
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    Azangou-Khyavy, Mohammadreza (57219384569)
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    Badar, Muhammad (59429105700)
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    Baghcheghi, Nayereh (35092167000)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Bardhan, Mainak (57819452400)
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    Bashir, Nasir Z. (57219778431)
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    Benzian, Habib (57195256480)
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    Bernabe, Eduardo (57194696150)
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    Bhagat, Devidas S. (57327243700)
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    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
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    Bjørge, Tone (7004208100)
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    Braithwaite, Dejana (7006987079)
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    Calina, Daniela (36451890700)
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    Carreras, Giulia (57221176357)
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    Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo (57218384775)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Chaurasia, Akhilanand (57189323507)
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    Chen, Meng Xuan (57216954444)
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    Cho, William C. S. (58556411300)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Chukwu, Isaac Sunday (57217204488)
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    Chung, Eunice (58652631100)
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    Cruz-Martins, Natália (57203415019)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    Debela, Sisay Abebe (57209640708)
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    Derbew Molla, Meseret (57211542342)
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    Dessalegn, Fikadu Nugusu (57459332800)
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    Dianati-Nasab, Mostafa (57281638900)
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    Digesa, Lankamo Ena (57223025144)
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    Dixit, Shilpi Gupta (23993802900)
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    Dixit, Abhinav (8728401600)
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    Djalalinia, Shirin (37113718000)
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    El Sayed, Iman (7004479194)
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    El Tantawi, Maha (57214851491)
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    Enyew, Daniel Berhanie (57226671568)
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    Erku, Daniel Asfaw (57190738018)
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    Ezzeddini, Rana (54917204900)
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    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis (50861113000)
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    Falzone, Luca (57057684700)
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    Fetensa, Getahun (57211853863)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Gaewkhiew, Piyada (57194079692)
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    Gallus, Silvano (7005387365)
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    Gebrehiwot, Mesfin (57192100745)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Goleij, Pouya (57217533849)
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    Gomez, Ricardo Santiago (7402250311)
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    Gorini, Giuseppe (56509988200)
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    Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena (7102920800)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Sapna (57217857409)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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    Halboub, Esam S. (36028027700)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Hariyani, Ninuk (57190349243)
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    Harorani, Mehdi (57195316126)
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    Hasani, Hamidreza (55632123200)
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    Hassan, Abbas M. (57659064800)
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    Hassanipour, Soheil (57191513993)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hayat, Khezar (57219918947)
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    Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana (57204618451)
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    Holla, Ramesh (55270371800)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hussain, Salman (57193956545)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Jaiswal, Abhishek (57196884767)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    ;
    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    ;
    Hugo, Fernando N. (13403199800)
    Importance: Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective: To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings: In 2019, 370000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338000-401000) cases and 199000 (95% UI, 181000-217000) deaths for LOC and 167000 (95% UI, 153000-180000) cases and 114000 (95% UI, 103000-126000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts. © 2023 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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    The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2023)
    Da Cunha, Amanda Ramos (57214078354)
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    Compton, Kelly (57205330541)
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    Xu, Rixing (57204186670)
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    Mishra, Rashmi (59585097000)
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    Drangsholt, Mark Thomas (6701699849)
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    Antunes, Jose Leopoldo Ferreira (7005765907)
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    Kerr, Alexander R. (24477055900)
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    Acheson, Alistair R. (57912642400)
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    Lu, Dan (59057346200)
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    Wallace, Lindsey E. (57356541900)
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    Kocarnik, Jonathan M. (56041211800)
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    Fu, Weijia (57218882680)
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    Dean, Frances E. (57211949247)
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    Pennini, Alyssa (57210820174)
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    Henrikson, Hannah Jacqueline (57219861283)
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    Alam, Tahiya (57205589820)
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    Ababneh, Emad (57210792873)
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    Abd-Elsalam, Sherief (57189845325)
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    Abdoun, Meriem (20336514800)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Abubaker Ali, Hiwa (57441328600)
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    Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)
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    Ahmed Rashid, Tarik (57023479100)
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    Al-Maweri, Sadeq Ali (36023535700)
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    Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, Reza (24438229500)
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    El Sayed, Iman (7004479194)
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    Enyew, Daniel Berhanie (57226671568)
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    Erku, Daniel Asfaw (57190738018)
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    Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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    Gomez, Ricardo Santiago (7402250311)
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    Guimaraes, Andre Luiz Sena (7102920800)
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    Gupta, Sapna (57217857409)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Halboub, Esam S. (36028027700)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Herrera-Serna, Brenda Yuliana (57204618451)
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    Holla, Ramesh (55270371800)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hussain, Salman (57193956545)
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    Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Jayarajah, Umesh (57192238672)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Karanth, Shama D. (57208742503)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Kauppila, Joonas H. (37665210400)
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    Kaur, Harkiran (57860762900)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    Khazeei Tabari, Mohammad Amin (57217587801)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Koohestani, Hamid Reza (26423051700)
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    La Vecchia, Carlo (36063266200)
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    Libra, Massimo (6603852432)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Listl, Stefan (35759488300)
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    Lopukhov, Platon D. (57191340780)
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    Mafi, Ahmad R. (23571119200)
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    Mahumud, Rashidul Alam (57188551083)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
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    Mathur, Manu Raj (55270329300)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Shorofi, Seyed Afshin (35086976700)
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    Tiyuri, Amir (57201850751)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Volovat, Simona Ruxandra (44961657900)
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    Wang, Cong (15924372200)
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    Westerman, Ronny (57218361023)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Xiao, Hong (57214631433)
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    Yu, Chuanhua (57208140344)
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    Yuce, Deniz (57514476300)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zadnik, Vesna (57202975428)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
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    Force, Lisa M. (57188548035)
    ;
    Hugo, Fernando N. (13403199800)
    Importance: Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning. Objective: To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates. Evidence Review: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019. Findings: In 2019, 370000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338000-401000) cases and 199000 (95% UI, 181000-217000) deaths for LOC and 167000 (95% UI, 153000-180000) cases and 114000 (95% UI, 103000-126000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia. Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts. © 2023 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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