Cromwell, Elizabeth A. (15727546000)Elizabeth A. (15727546000)CromwellOsborne, Joshua C. P. (57215316599)Joshua C. P. (57215316599)OsborneUnnasch, Thomas R. (7005170465)Thomas R. (7005170465)UnnaschBasáñez, Mariagloria (6701712698)Mariagloria (6701712698)BasáñezGass, Katherine M. (54950520600)Katherine M. (54950520600)GassBarbre, Kira A. (59256906900)Kira A. (59256906900)BarbreHill, Elex (57209096856)Elex (57209096856)HillJohnson, Kimberly B. (57207359220)Kimberly B. (57207359220)JohnsonDonkers, Katie M. (57209108162)Katie M. (57209108162)DonkersShirude, Shreya (57216599051)Shreya (57216599051)ShirudeSchmidt, Chris A. (57195299414)Chris A. (57195299414)SchmidtAdekanmbi, Victor (53463192900)Victor (53463192900)AdekanmbiAdetokunboh, Olatunji O. (56598104300)Olatunji O. (56598104300)AdetokunbohAfarideh, Mohsen (56227034300)Mohsen (56227034300)AfaridehAhmadpour, Ehsan (55067754700)Ehsan (55067754700)AhmadpourBeshir Ahmed, Muktar (57207802317)Muktar (57207802317)Beshir AhmedYihunie Akalu, Temesgen (57203189637)Temesgen (57203189637)Yihunie AkaluAl-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)Ziyad (9738161500)Al-AlyAlanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)AlaneziAlanzi, Turki M. (55978240000)Turki M. (55978240000)AlanziAlipour, Vahid (56436629300)Vahid (56436629300)AlipourAndrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)Catalina Liliana (36543507200)AndreiAnsari, Fereshteh (56478531800)Fereshteh (56478531800)AnsariAnsha, Mustafa Geleto (57195329453)Mustafa Geleto (57195329453)AnshaAnvari, Davood (57201259536)Davood (57201259536)AnvariYaw Appiah, Seth Christopher (57219427174)Seth Christopher (57219427174)Yaw AppiahArabloo, Jalal (57208760927)Jalal (57208760927)ArablooArnold, Benjamin F. (16174532400)Benjamin F. 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(55666602500)MamunManafi, Ali (6507087037)Ali (6507087037)ManafiManafi, Navid (57190424904)Navid (57190424904)ManafiMansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)Mohammad Ali (34570618600)MansourniaMartins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807)Francisco Rogerlândio (57204796807)Martins-MeloMazidi, Mohsen (57200232563)Mohsen (57200232563)MazidiMcAlinden, Colm (35325278500)Colm (35325278500)McAlindenMeharie, Birhanu Geta (57217083932)Birhanu Geta (57217083932)MeharieMendoza, Walter (57216905642)Walter (57216905642)MendozaMengesha, Endalkachew Worku (57216203521)Endalkachew Worku (57216203521)MengeshaMengistu, Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)Desalegn Tadese (57194776802)MengistuMereta, Seid Tiku (57203628211)Seid Tiku (57203628211)MeretaMestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)Tomislav (6507240107)MestrovicMiller, Ted R. (7403948600)Ted R. (7403948600)MillerMiri, Mohammad (56938228400)Mohammad (56938228400)MiriMoghadaszadeh, Masoud (57200791890)Masoud (57200791890)MoghadaszadehHafshejani, Abdollah Mohammadian (55602206500)Abdollah Mohammadian (55602206500)HafshejaniMohammadpourhodki, Reza (59552855100)Reza (59552855100)MohammadpourhodkiMohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)Shafiu (57838689000)MohammedMohammed, Salahuddin (57567912700)Salahuddin (57567912700)MohammedMoradi, Masoud (56506570100)Masoud (56506570100)MoradiMoradzadeh, Rahmatollah (55179399300)Rahmatollah (55179399300)MoradzadehMoraga, Paula (46761426800)Paula (46761426800)MoragaMosser, Jonathan F. (56111776300)Jonathan F. (56111776300)MosserNaderi, Mehdi (57202026927)Mehdi (57202026927)NaderiNagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074)Ahamarshan Jayaraman (57204562074)NagarajanNaik, Gurudatta (56020694000)Gurudatta (56020694000)NaikNegoi, Ionut (57200640014)Ionut (57200640014)NegoiNguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)Cuong Tat (56531347200)NguyenNguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)NguyenNguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200)Trang Huyen (59142352200)NguyenNikbakhsh, Rajan (57204566375)Rajan (57204566375)NikbakhshOancea, Bogdan (26658614800)Bogdan (26658614800)OanceaOlagunju, Tinuke O. (57203076824)Tinuke O. (57203076824)OlagunjuOlagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700)Andrew T. (26029995700)OlagunjuBali, Ahmed Omar (57201273344)Ahmed Omar (57201273344)BaliOnwujekwe, Obinna E. (7003992855)Obinna E. (7003992855)OnwujekwePana, Adrian (57191837583)Adrian (57191837583)PanaPourjafar, Hadi (54881252100)Hadi (54881252100)PourjafarRahim, Fakher (23052247800)Fakher (23052247800)RahimUr Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378)Mohammad Hifz (57202017378)Ur RahmanRathi, Priya (57216633909)Priya (57216633909)RathiRawaf, Salman (6602475959)Salman (6602475959)RawafRawaf, David Laith (57209228052)David Laith (57209228052)RawafRawassizadeh, Reza (36634807900)Reza (36634807900)RawassizadehResnikoff, Serge (7006012071)Serge (7006012071)ResnikoffReta, Melese Abate (57219956463)Melese Abate (57219956463)RetaRezapour, Aziz (55548281300)Aziz (55548281300)RezapourRubagotti, Enrico (57208389589)Enrico (57208389589)RubagottiRubino, Salvatore (55240504800)Salvatore (55240504800)RubinoSadeghi, Ehsan (37010381500)Ehsan (37010381500)SadeghiSaghafipour, Abedin (38862941000)Abedin (38862941000)SaghafipourSajadi, S. Mohammad (22136195900)S. Mohammad (22136195900)SajadiSamy, Abdallah M. (36973661300)Abdallah M. (36973661300)SamySarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430)Rodrigo (57204744430)Sarmiento-SuárezSawhney, Monika (57217153893)Monika (57217153893)SawhneySchipp, Megan F. (57210321715)Megan F. (57210321715)SchippShaheen, Amira A. (57202560956)Amira A. (57202560956)ShaheenShaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)Masood Ali (57203122601)ShaikhShamsizadeh, Morteza (57195940127)Morteza (57195940127)ShamsizadehSharafi, Kiomars (57194516056)Kiomars (57194516056)SharafiSheikh, Aziz (7202522962)Aziz (7202522962)SheikhKumar Shetty, B. Suresh (7102818010)B. Suresh (7102818010)Kumar ShettyShin, Jae Il (57964880100)Jae Il (57964880100)ShinShivakumar, K.M. (57221603938)K.M. (57221603938)ShivakumarSimonetti, Biagio (16310420300)Biagio (16310420300)SimonettiSingh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)Jasvinder A. (7404421736)SinghSkiadaresi, Eirini (37100428500)Eirini (37100428500)SkiadaresiSoheili, Amin (57204123755)Amin (57204123755)SoheiliSoltani, Shahin (56767763700)Shahin (56767763700)SoltaniSpurlock, Emma Elizabeth (57218543838)Emma Elizabeth (57218543838)SpurlockSufiyan, Mu’Awiyyah Babale (58294633600)Mu’Awiyyah Babale (58294633600)SufiyanTabuchi, Takahiro (55177892400)Takahiro (55177892400)TabuchiTapak, Leili (57212102319)Leili (57212102319)TapakThompson, Robert L. (59050229100)Robert L. (59050229100)ThompsonThomson, Alan J. (57969994200)Alan J. (57969994200)ThomsonTraini, Eugenio (57211137081)Eugenio (57211137081)TrainiTran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)Bach Xuan (57209107515)TranUllah, Irfan (56992676600)Irfan (56992676600)UllahUllah, Saif (57219395828)Saif (57219395828)UllahUneke, Chigozie Jesse (57202824589)Chigozie Jesse (57202824589)UnekeUnnikrishnan, Bhaskaran (12790012100)Bhaskaran (12790012100)UnnikrishnanUthman, Olalekan A. (23026328100)Olalekan A. (23026328100)UthmanMelchers, Natalie V. S. Vinkeles (35305970600)Natalie V. S. Vinkeles (35305970600)MelchersViolante, Francesco S. (7003555890)Francesco S. (7003555890)ViolanteWolde, Haileab Fekadu (57199530258)Haileab Fekadu (57199530258)WoldeWonde, Tewodros Eshete (57207759070)Tewodros Eshete (57207759070)WondeYamada, Tomohide (37662679800)Tomohide (37662679800)YamadaYaya, Sanni (55191139800)Sanni (55191139800)YayaYazdi Feyzabadi, Vahid (56017415700)Vahid (56017415700)Yazdi FeyzabadiYip, Paul (7102503720)Paul (7102503720)YipYonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)Naohiro (57204947657)YonemotoYousof, Hebat-Allah Salah A. (56183368000)Hebat-Allah Salah A. (56183368000)YousofYu, Chuanhua (57208140344)Chuanhua (57208140344)YuYu, Yong (55628587954)Yong (55628587954)YuYusefzadeh, Hasan (55887807200)Hasan (55887807200)YusefzadehZaki, Leila (57204106631)Leila (57204106631)ZakiZaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)Sojib Bin (57193070058)ZamanZamanian, Maryam (57201292465)Maryam (57201292465)ZamanianZhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)ZhangZhang, Yunquan (56568510200)Yunquan (56568510200)ZhangZiapour, Arash (57202571078)Arash (57202571078)ZiapourHay, Simon I. (7101875313)Simon I. (7101875313)HayPigott, David M. (55320335600)David M. (55320335600)Pigott2025-06-122025-06-122021https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85112387757&doi=10.1371%2fjournal.pntd.0008824&partnerID=40&md5=48a2cd6ee451c41509cf160416e7439dhttps://remedy.med.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4138Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify. © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.