Nichols, Emma (57205756163)Emma (57205756163)NicholsSteinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)Jaimie D. (57221591053)SteinmetzVollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)Stein Emil (57196315778)VollsetFukutaki, Kai (57204561888)Kai (57204561888)FukutakiChalek, Julian (57203308287)Julian (57203308287)ChalekAbd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)Foad (36503428900)Abd-AllahAbdoli, Amir (59421084100)Amir (59421084100)AbdoliAbualhasan, Ahmed (57211135523)Ahmed (57211135523)AbualhasanAbu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)Eman (24586714800)Abu-GharbiehAkram, Tayyaba Tayyaba (57208951047)Tayyaba Tayyaba (57208951047)AkramAl Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200)Hanadi (56955516200)Al HamadAlahdab, Fares (55135922900)Fares (55135922900)AlahdabAlanezi, Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)Fahad Mashhour (57213607595)AlaneziAlipour, Vahid (56436629300)Vahid (56436629300)AlipourAlmustanyir, Sami (57217589155)Sami (57217589155)AlmustanyirAmu, Hubert (57190183918)Hubert (57190183918)AmuAnsari, Iman (56576085100)Iman (56576085100)AnsariArabloo, Jalal (57208760927)Jalal (57208760927)ArablooAshraf, Tahira (56366752600)Tahira (56366752600)AshrafAstell-Burt, Thomas (36924540400)Thomas (36924540400)Astell-BurtAyano, Getinet (57189617474)Getinet (57189617474)AyanoAyuso-Mateos, Jose L. (7003927709)Jose L. (7003927709)Ayuso-MateosBaig, Atif Amin (49460999600)Atif Amin (49460999600)BaigBarnett, Anthony (35195335800)Anthony (35195335800)BarnettBarrow, Amadou (57217061576)Amadou (57217061576)BarrowBaune, Bernhard T. (6603807336)Bernhard T. (6603807336)BauneBéjot, Yannick (14038743100)Yannick (14038743100)BéjotMequanint Bezabhe, Woldesellassie M. (55932461200)Woldesellassie M. (55932461200)Mequanint BezabheBezabih, Yihienew Mequanint (57209397638)Yihienew Mequanint (57209397638)BezabihBhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)BhagavathulaBhaskar, Sonu (57192268582)Sonu (57192268582)BhaskarBhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)Krittika (57204647266)BhattacharyyaBijani, Ali (23134684900)Ali (23134684900)BijaniBiswas, Atanu (56818430000)Atanu (56818430000)BiswasBolla, Srinivasa Rao (23048516100)Srinivasa Rao (23048516100)BollaBoloor, Archith (36192710300)Archith (36192710300)BoloorBrayne, Carol (57210386759)Carol (57210386759)BrayneBrenner, Hermann (7201832825)Hermann (7201832825)BrennerBurkart, Katrin (29067507300)Katrin (29067507300)BurkartBurns, Richard A. (55682654356)Richard A. (55682654356)BurnsCámera, Luis Alberto (7003354253)Luis Alberto (7003354253)CámeraCao, Chao (57205476718)Chao (57205476718)CaoCarvalho, Felix (7103070417)Felix (7103070417)CarvalhoCastro-De-Araujo, Luis F.S. (57200569181)Luis F.S. (57200569181)Castro-De-AraujoCatalá-López, Ferrán (57202553733)Ferrán (57202553733)Catalá-LópezCerin, Ester (14522064200)Ester (14522064200)CerinChavan, Prachi P. (57192304065)Prachi P. (57192304065)ChavanCherbuin, Nicolas (10139477400)Nicolas (10139477400)CherbuinChu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)Dinh-Toi (56239816300)ChuCosta, Vera Marisa (17134373000)Vera Marisa (17134373000)CostaCouto, Rosa A.S. (56132363700)Rosa A.S. (56132363700)CoutoDadras, Omid (57205721978)Omid (57205721978)DadrasDai, Xiaochen (57221591169)Xiaochen (57221591169)DaiDandona, Lalit (7007017243)Lalit (7007017243)DandonaDandona, Rakhi (57203043697)Rakhi (57203043697)DandonaDe la Cruz-Góngora, Vanessa (55326484300)Vanessa (55326484300)De la Cruz-GóngoraDhamnetiya, Deepak (56884613200)Deepak (56884613200)Dhamnetiyada Silva, Diana Dias (57867385000)Diana Dias (57867385000)da SilvaDiaz, Daniel (56644152500)Daniel (56644152500)DiazDouiri, Abdel (7801315826)Abdel (7801315826)DouiriEdvardsson, David (35229255500)David (35229255500)EdvardssonEkholuenetale, Michael (57189344745)Michael (57189344745)EkholuenetaleEl Sayed, Iman (7004479194)Iman (7004479194)El SayedEl-Jaafary, Shaimaa I. (34869528300)Shaimaa I. (34869528300)El-JaafaryEskandari, Khalil (54937223200)Khalil (54937223200)EskandariEskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)Sharareh (57211720158)EskandariehEsmaeilnejad, Saman (37161242600)Saman (37161242600)EsmaeilnejadFares, Jawad (55606854400)Jawad (55606854400)FaresFaro, Andre (36770969600)Andre (36770969600)FaroFarooque, Umar (57215323961)Umar (57215323961)FarooqueFeigin, Valery L. (57203677957)Valery L. (57203677957)FeiginFeng, Xiaoqi (57211144740)Xiaoqi (57211144740)FengFereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)Seyed-Mohammad (57202557520)FereshtehnejadFernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)Eduarda (34770207500)FernandesFerrara, Pietro (58098198000)Pietro (58098198000)FerraraFilip, Irina (55570061400)Irina (55570061400)FilipFillit, Howard (7005360171)Howard (7005360171)FillitFischer, Florian (55508208800)Florian (55508208800)FischerGaidhane, Shilpa (36844056200)Shilpa (36844056200)GaidhaneGalluzzo, Lucia (57218354379)Lucia (57218354379)GalluzzoGhashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)Ahmad (57194174020)GhashghaeeGhith, Nermin (55249750100)Nermin (55249750100)GhithGialluisi, Alessandro (54784401100)Alessandro (54784401100)GialluisiGilani, Syed Amir (37008269900)Syed Amir (37008269900)GilaniGlavan, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)GlavanGnedovskaya, Elena V. (56806916500)Elena V. (56806916500)GnedovskayaGolechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)Mahaveer (36006347600)GolechhaGupta, Rajeev (55705295300)Rajeev (55705295300)GuptaGupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)Veer Bala (57194978364)GuptaGupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)Vivek Kumar (35073936800)GuptaHaider, Mohammad Rifat (56660365700)Mohammad Rifat (56660365700)HaiderHall, Brian J. (57218302519)Brian J. (57218302519)HallHamidi, Samer (24366336000)Samer (24366336000)HamidiHanif, Asif (55360052800)Asif (55360052800)HanifHankey, Graeme J. (7102816661)Graeme J. (7102816661)HankeyHaque, Shafiul (35793732800)Shafiul (35793732800)HaqueHartono, Risky Kusuma (57217642211)Risky Kusuma (57217642211)HartonoHasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)Ahmed I. (56002305300)HasaballahHasan, M. Tasdik (57798246500)M. Tasdik (57798246500)HasanHassan, Amr (55618204400)Amr (55618204400)HassanHay, Simon I. (7101875313)Simon I. (7101875313)HayHayat, Khezar (57219918947)Khezar (57219918947)HayatHegazy, Mohamed I. (35110336200)Mohamed I. (35110336200)HegazyHeidari, Golnaz (57218883864)Golnaz (57218883864)HeidariHeidari-Soureshjani, Reza (57204841868)Reza (57204841868)Heidari-SoureshjaniHerteliu, Claudiu (26035943100)Claudiu (26035943100)HerteliuHouseh, Mowafa (8667908000)Mowafa (8667908000)HousehHussain, Rabia (7103224786)Rabia (7103224786)HussainHwang, Bing-Fang (7201453928)Bing-Fang (7201453928)HwangIacoviello, Licia (57205867300)Licia (57205867300)IacovielloIavicoli, Ivo (6603685479)Ivo (6603685479)IavicoliIlesanmi, Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)Olayinka Stephen (54782692800)IlesanmiIlic, Irena M. (57210823522)Irena M. (57210823522)IlicIlic, Milena D. (7102981394)Milena D. (7102981394)IlicIrvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)Seyed Sina Naghibi (57202975543)IrvaniIso, Hiroyasu (35227393400)Hiroyasu (35227393400)IsoIwagami, Masao (54381883100)Masao (54381883100)IwagamiJabbarinejad, Roxana (57221933043)Roxana (57221933043)JabbarinejadJacob, Louis (56779678900)Louis (56779678900)JacobJain, Vardhmaan (57208149266)Vardhmaan (57208149266)JainJayapal, Sathish Kumar (57202019648)Sathish Kumar (57202019648)JayapalJayawardena, Ranil (55010295200)Ranil (55010295200)JayawardenaJha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)Ravi Prakash (58586863400)JhaJonas, Jost B. (7202492953)Jost B. (7202492953)JonasJoseph, Nitin (35292547200)Nitin (35292547200)JosephKalani, Rizwan (13006237100)Rizwan (13006237100)KalaniKandel, Amit (57200197349)Amit (57200197349)KandelKandel, Himal (57226834655)Himal (57226834655)KandelKarch, André (55917217700)André (55917217700)KarchKasa, Ayele Semachew (57203538861)Ayele Semachew (57203538861)KasaKassie, Gizat M. (56239499100)Gizat M. (56239499100)KassieKeshavarz, Pedram (57209008531)Pedram (57209008531)KeshavarzKhan, Moien A.B. (57209800900)Moien A.B. (57209800900)KhanKhatib, Mahalaqua Nazli (25825057100)Mahalaqua Nazli (25825057100)KhatibKhoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer (7003561381)Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer (7003561381)KhojaKhubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)Jagdish (57211720011)KhubchandaniKim, Min Seo (57203591936)Min Seo (57203591936)KimKim, Yun Jin (57211086375)Yun Jin (57211086375)KimKisa, Adnan (6603346067)Adnan (6603346067)KisaKisa, Sezer (14030019900)Sezer (14030019900)KisaKivimäki, Mika (7004391239)Mika (7004391239)KivimäkiKoroshetz, Walter J. (7006674942)Walter J. (7006674942)KoroshetzKoyanagi, Ai (57197741912)Ai (57197741912)KoyanagiKumar, G. Anil (57139550500)G. Anil (57139550500)KumarKumar, Manasi (21739940700)Manasi (21739940700)KumarLak, Hassan Mehmood (57211620211)Hassan Mehmood (57211620211)LakLeonardi, Matilde (7101854166)Matilde (7101854166)LeonardiLi, Bingyu (57205248886)Bingyu (57205248886)LiLim, Stephen S. (57201800433)Stephen S. (57201800433)LimLiu, Xuefeng (37050047900)Xuefeng (37050047900)LiuLiu, Yuewei (16424749900)Yuewei (16424749900)LiuLogroscino, Giancarlo (7004888005)Giancarlo (7004888005)LogroscinoLorkowski, Stefan (57203677656)Stefan (57203677656)LorkowskiLucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500)Giancarlo (35790096500)LucchettiSaute, Ricardo Lutzky (56146513400)Ricardo Lutzky (56146513400)SauteMagnani, Francesca Giulia (55568584500)Francesca Giulia (55568584500)MagnaniMalik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)Ahmad Azam (57198682313)MalikMassano, João (25632444800)João (25632444800)MassanoMehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864)Man Mohan (57202557864)MehndirattaMenezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900)Ritesh G. (55517099900)MenezesMeretoja, Atte (12775885500)Atte (12775885500)MeretojaMohajer, Bahram (57039225300)Bahram (57039225300)MohajerIbrahim, Norlinah Mohamed (6504514356)Norlinah Mohamed (6504514356)IbrahimMohammad, Yousef (6603403710)Yousef (6603403710)MohammadMohammed, Arif (57197416979)Arif (57197416979)MohammedMokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)Ali H. (7004813962)MokdadMondello, Stefania (23094881100)Stefania (23094881100)MondelloMoni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)Mohammad Ali (35119094400)MoniMoniruzzaman, Md (56392674200)Md (56392674200)MoniruzzamanMossie, Tilahun Belete (56811728500)Tilahun Belete (56811728500)MossieNagel, Gabriele (7103201623)Gabriele (7103201623)NagelNaveed, Muhammad (58953995300)Muhammad (58953995300)NaveedNayak, Vinod C. (24385399000)Vinod C. (24385399000)NayakKandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)KandelNguyen, Trang Huyen (59142352200)Trang Huyen (59142352200)NguyenOancea, Bogdan (26658614800)Bogdan (26658614800)OanceaOtstavnov, Nikita (57202947262)Nikita (57202947262)OtstavnovOtstavnov, Stanislav S. (57204561394)Stanislav S. (57204561394)OtstavnovOwolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)Mayowa O. (57222581892)OwolabiPanda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)Songhomitra (6603112353)Panda-JonasKan, Fatemeh Pashazadeh (57222966726)Fatemeh Pashazadeh (57222966726)KanPasovic, Maja (57204523203)Maja (57204523203)PasovicPatel, Urvish K. (57205649495)Urvish K. (57205649495)PatelPathak, Mona (57194053763)Mona (57194053763)PathakPeres, Mario F.P. (7006723305)Mario F.P. (7006723305)PeresPerianayagam, Arokiasamy (15053062900)Arokiasamy (15053062900)PerianayagamPeterson, Carrie B. (57202568667)Carrie B. (57202568667)PetersonPhillips, Michael R. (57206972395)Michael R. (57206972395)PhillipsPinheiro, Marina (54397531500)Marina (54397531500)PinheiroPiradov, Michael A. (7003731802)Michael A. (7003731802)PiradovPond, Constance Dimity (7006633763)Constance Dimity (7006633763)PondPotashman, Michele H. (21233960000)Michele H. (21233960000)PotashmanPottoo, Faheem Hyder (56394551400)Faheem Hyder (56394551400)PottooPrada, Sergio I. (55259772200)Sergio I. (55259772200)PradaRadfar, Amir (57194428768)Amir (57194428768)RadfarRaggi, Alberto (8514468700)Alberto (8514468700)RaggiRahim, Fakher (23052247800)Fakher (23052247800)RahimRahman, Mosiur (55457953000)Mosiur (55457953000)RahmanRam, Pradhum (55961669800)Pradhum (55961669800)RamRanasinghe, Priyanga (6602322079)Priyanga (6602322079)RanasingheRawaf, David Laith (57209228052)David Laith (57209228052)RawafRawaf, Salman (6602475959)Salman (6602475959)RawafRezaei, Nima (57216077273)Nima (57216077273)RezaeiRezapour, Aziz (55548281300)Aziz (55548281300)RezapourRobinson, Stephen R. (7402673969)Stephen R. (7402673969)RobinsonRomoli, Michele (56592186200)Michele (56592186200)RomoliRoshandel, Gholamreza (14034446800)Gholamreza (14034446800)RoshandelSahathevan, Ramesh (35332739200)Ramesh (35332739200)SahathevanSahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)Amirhossein (26639699900)SahebkarSahraian, Mohammad Ali (55886074600)Mohammad Ali (55886074600)SahraianSathian, Brijesh (27467953500)Brijesh (27467953500)SathianSattin, Davide (36088024000)Davide (36088024000)SattinSawhney, Monika (57217153893)Monika (57217153893)SawhneySaylan, Mete (56253241700)Mete (56253241700)SaylanSchiavolin, Silvia (55321082600)Silvia (55321082600)SchiavolinSeylani, Allen (57222325334)Allen (57222325334)SeylaniSha, Feng (57190308655)Feng (57190308655)ShaShaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)Masood Ali (57203122601)ShaikhShaji, K.S. (59157781100)K.S. (59157781100)ShajiShannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)Mohammed (56349680200)ShannawazShetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)Jeevan K. (15844347300)ShettyShigematsu, Mika (23968093000)Mika (23968093000)ShigematsuShin, Jae Il (57964880100)Jae Il (57964880100)ShinShiri, Rahman (57200737050)Rahman (57200737050)ShiriSantos Silva, Diego Augusto (36985158000)Diego Augusto (36985158000)Santos SilvaSilva, Joao Pedro (57204703526)Joao Pedro (57204703526)SilvaSilva, Renata (7201604534)Renata (7201604534)SilvaSingh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)Jasvinder A. (7404421736)SinghSkryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981)Valentin Yurievich (57226830981)SkryabinSkryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)SkryabinaSmith, Amanda E. (56128141700)Amanda E. (56128141700)SmithSoshnikov, Sergey (57195195606)Sergey (57195195606)SoshnikovSpurlock, Emma Elizabeth (57218543838)Emma Elizabeth (57218543838)SpurlockStein, Dan J. (55769747595)Dan J. (55769747595)SteinSun, Jing (55547135859)Jing (55547135859)SunTabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)Rafael (6602981102)Tabarés-SeisdedosThakur, Bhaskar (56810826900)Bhaskar (56810826900)ThakurTimalsina, Binod (59537205600)Binod (59537205600)TimalsinaTovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)Marcos Roberto (56644977900)Tovani-PaloneTran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)Bach Xuan (57209107515)TranTsegaye, Gebiyaw Wudie (57216732977)Gebiyaw Wudie (57216732977)TsegayeTahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)Sahel Valadan (57216154072)TahbazValdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)Pascual R. (57202115577)ValdezVenketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (56804702100)Narayanaswamy (56804702100)VenketasubramanianVlassov, Vasily (57211633239)Vasily (57211633239)VlassovVu, Giang Thu (57202424871)Giang Thu (57202424871)VuVu, Linh Gia (57210070319)Linh Gia (57210070319)VuWang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)Yuan-Pang (8576812100)WangWimo, Anders (56235097300)Anders (56235097300)WimoWinkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)WinklerYadav, Lalit (57211483937)Lalit (57211483937)YadavJabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)JabbariYamagishi, Kazumasa (35231751500)Kazumasa (35231751500)YamagishiYang, Lin (57189045362)Lin (57189045362)YangYano, Yuichiro (57196965200)Yuichiro (57196965200)YanoYonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)Naohiro (57204947657)YonemotoYu, Chuanhua (57208140344)Chuanhua (57208140344)YuYunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)Ismaeel (57202137670)YunusaZadey, Siddhesh (57188589258)Siddhesh (57188589258)ZadeyZastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)ZastrozhinZastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491)Anasthasia (57210832491)ZastrozhinaZhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)ZhangMurray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)Christopher J.L. (57224556036)MurrayVos, Theo (57223885848)Theo (57223885848)Vos2025-06-122025-06-122022https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00249-8https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85123842750&doi=10.1016%2fS2468-2667%2821%2900249-8&partnerID=40&md5=9768c1e72b73784ca444d0348be54ca9https://remedy.med.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3710Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license