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Browsing by Author "Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)"

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    Publication
    Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
    Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705)
    ;
    Duncan, Bruce B. (35476478500)
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    Stein, Caroline (57196039610)
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    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Abbafati, Cristiana (54917122400)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abdelmasseh, Michael (57356690000)
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    Abdoli, Amir (59421084100)
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    Abd-Rabu, Rami (57214966967)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)
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    Accrombessi, Manfred Mario Kokou (55353650500)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Agarwal, Gina (57220151944)
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    Agrawaal, Krishna K. (37103625900)
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    Agudelo-Botero, Marcela (58888387100)
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    Ahinkorah, Bright Opoku (57194684030)
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    Ahmad, Sajjad (57218961022)
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    Ahmad, Tauseef (57214283386)
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    Ahmadi, Keivan (59396073300)
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    Ahmadi, Sepideh (58189812000)
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    Ahmadi, Ali (57193998515)
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    Ahmed, Ali (57201189007)
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    Salih, Yusra Ahmed (57407078800)
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    Akande-Sholabi, Wuraola (57204532006)
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    Akram, Tayyaba (57208951047)
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    Al Hamad, Hanadi (56955516200)
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    Al-Aly, Ziyad (9738161500)
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    Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth (35749450200)
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    Alipour, Vahid (56436629300)
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    Aljunid, Syed Mohamed (6504304159)
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    Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M. (57219673720)
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    Alvis-Guzman, Nelson (57210741239)
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    Amini, Saeed (57210811281)
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    Ancuceanu, Robert (35728302200)
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    Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Anjana, Ranjit Mohan (23992147600)
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    Ansar, Adnan (57196006846)
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    Antonazzo, Ippazio Cosimo (57219860691)
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    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
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    Anyasodor, Anayochukwu Edward (57192947419)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Arizmendi, Damian (57489836300)
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    Armocida, Benedetta (57216280659)
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    Artamonov, Anton A. (57089921800)
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    Arulappan, Judie (57224210161)
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    Aryan, Zahra (55479968600)
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    Asgari, Samaneh (56010419200)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Astell-Burt, Thomas (36924540400)
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    Atorkey, Prince (57218950488)
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    Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi (57195251851)
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    Ayanore, Martin Amogre (57070358300)
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    Badiye, Ashish D. (56340201200)
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    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
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    Bairwa, Mohan (50461080100)
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    Baker, Jennifer L. (8705509600)
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    Baltatu, Ovidiu Constantin (6603841869)
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    Banik, Palash Chandra (57193523050)
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    Barnett, Anthony (35195335800)
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    Barone, Mark Thomaz Ugliara (7103416331)
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    Barone-Adesi, Francesco (8722189200)
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    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
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    Bedi, Neeraj (57988442200)
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    Belete, Rebuma (57217182390)
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    Belgaumi, Uzma Iqbal (55639511900)
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    Bell, Arielle Wilder (57362817700)
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    Bennett, Derrick A. (57650836400)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Beran, David (8700920100)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Bhaskar, Sonu (57192268582)
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    Bhattacharyya, Krittika (57204647266)
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    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bikbov, Boris (57219957158)
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    Birara, Setognal (57218667464)
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    Bodolica, Virginia (22978699000)
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    Bonny, Aime (57190091246)
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    Brenner, Hermann (7201832825)
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    Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich (7004344976)
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    Butt, Zahid A. (57202522739)
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    Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano (56373058500)
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    Cámera, Luis Alberto (7003354253)
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    Campos-Nonato, Ismael R. (57203424784)
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    Cao, Yin (55270204400)
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    Cao, Chao (57205476718)
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    Cerin, Ester (14522064200)
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    Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo (57218384775)
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    Chandan, Joht Singh (57221106138)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Chen, Simiao (57203514169)
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    Jee-Young Jasmine Choi (58608349400)
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    Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan (55760057300)
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    Chowdhury, Enayet Karim (35278162800)
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    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
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    Corso, Barbara (54402100400)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (57221591169)
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    Damasceno, Albertino Antonio Moura (6602880109)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto (45561136400)
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    De Neve, Jan-Walter (57039962400)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dhamnetiya, Deepak (56884613200)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Ebtehaj, Sanam (57188860618)
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    Edinur, Hisham Atan (57287676500)
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    Eftekharzadeh, Sahar (57192113055)
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    Sayed, Iman El (57207466387)
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    Elgendy, Islam Y. (56022050500)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Elmonem, Mohamed A. (55921282400)
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    Faisaluddin, Mohammed (57204007767)
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    Farooque, Umar (57215323961)
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    Feng, Xiaoqi (57211144740)
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    Fernandes, Eduarda (34770207500)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Flood, David (57189346302)
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    Freitas, Marisa (13406823400)
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    Gaal, Peter Andras (55966171600)
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    Gad, Mohamed M. (57203749611)
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    Gaewkhiew, Piyada (57194079692)
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    Getacher, Lemma (57219912857)
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    Ghafourifard, Mansour (57193420915)
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    Gheshlagh, Reza Ghanei (57194578564)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Ghith, Nermin (55249750100)
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    Ghozali, Ghozali (57208279650)
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    Gill, Paramjit Singh (7202766660)
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    Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageed (57192378390)
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    Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna (57208983629)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Gopalani, Sameer Vali (57190277891)
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    Guimarães, Rafael Alves (56534712800)
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    Gupta, Rajat Das (57215122060)
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    Gupta, Rajeev (55705295300)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Sapna (57217857409)
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    Habtewold, Tesfa Dejenie (57079013900)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Hankey, Graeme J. (7102816661)
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    Haque, Shafiul (35793732800)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hasan, Syed Shahzad (26032595100)
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    Hashi, Abdiwahab (57193562090)
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    Hassanipour, Soheil (57191513993)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hayat, Khezar (57219918947)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain (36028425500)
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    Hossain, Sahadat (57188667199)
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    Hosseini, Mostafa (57204569481)
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    Hoveidamanesh, Soodabeh (57201943166)
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    Huang, Junjie (57199198962)
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    Humayun, Ayesha (25226911300)
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    Hussain, Rabia (7103224786)
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    Hwang, Bing-Fang (7201453928)
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    Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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    Ikuta, Kevin S. (57211541916)
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    Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja (55988289600)
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    Iqbal, Usman (55572166900)
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    Islam, Md Shariful (59599855500)
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    Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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    Islam, Rakibul M. (57205202128)
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    Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900)
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    Isola, Gaetano (25825125500)
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    Itumalla, Ramaiah (57212472658)
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    Iwagami, Masao (54381883100)
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    Iyamu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi (57219860603)
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    Jahani, Mohammad Ali (56091589300)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    Jayawardena, Ranil (55010295200)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    John, Oommen (56592310300)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Joo, Tamas (57214777013)
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    Kabir, Ali (23050698400)
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    Kalhor, Rohollah (55670548600)
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    Kamath, Ashwin (35724313100)
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    Kanchan, Tanuj (35237157900)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Kapoor, Neeti (56340726700)
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    Kayode, Gbenga A. (53463867400)
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    Kebede, Sewnet Adem (57215661049)
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    Keshavarz, Pedram (57209008531)
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    Keykhaei, Mohammad (57208162861)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khan, Moien A. B. (57209800900)
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    Khan, Md Nuruzzaman (57209404949)
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    Khan, Maseer (57215721758)
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    Khater, Amir M. (57211138055)
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    Khoja, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer (7003561381)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kimokoti, Ruth W. (8647554600)
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    Kisa, Sezer (14030019900)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kivimäki, Mika (7004391239)
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    Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich (57203303920)
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    Korzh, Oleksii (7004882843)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Defo, Barthelemy Kuate (6602271655)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Nithin (36678889900)
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    Kusuma, Dian (57190047530)
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    Vecchia, Carlo La (36063266200)
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    Lacey, Ben (7004338442)
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    Larsson, Anders O. (56381985300)
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    Lasrado, Savita (36632480900)
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    Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700)
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    Lee, Chiachi Bonnie (56101115800)
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    Lee, Paul H. (57200302692)
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    Lee, Shaun Wen Huey (35201185800)
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    Li, Ming-Chieh (56144176300)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lim, Lee-Ling (56988527400)
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    Lucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500)
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    Majeed, Azeem (7102027801)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
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    Mansouri, Borhan (54417707600)
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    Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni (7006357517)
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    Martini, Santi (57162600900)
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    Mathur, Prashant (7201845777)
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    McAlinden, Colm (35325278500)
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    Mehedi, Nafiul (57219473062)
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    Mekonnen, Teferi (57215662987)
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    Menezes, Ritesh G. (55517099900)
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    Mersha, Amanual Getnet (57194940075)
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    Jonasson, Junmei Miao (35875296300)
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    Miazgowski, Tomasz (6701404689)
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    Michalek, Irmina Maria (56982945900)
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    Mirica, Andreea (57188983765)
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    Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57216202888)
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    Mirza, Agha Zeeshan (15023104300)
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    Mithra, Prasanna (36018632500)
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    Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah (55602206500)
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    Mohammadpourhodki, Reza (59552855100)
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    Mohammed, Arif (57197416979)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Molokhia, Mariam (7004121920)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
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    Moradpour, Farhad (55540661600)
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    Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah (55179399300)
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    Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200)
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    Mueller, Ulrich Otto (8512347500)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Mustafa, Ahmad (57212890480)
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    Nagel, Gabriele (7103201623)
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    Nangia, Vinay (57201490837)
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    Naqvi, Atta Abbas (56501393600)
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    Nayak, Biswa Prakash (56639942500)
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    Nazari, Javad (57207759174)
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    Ndejjo, Rawlance (56586121600)
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    Negoi, Ruxandra Irina (55566106200)
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    Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)
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    Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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    Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)
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    Noubiap, Jean Jacques (55490374000)
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    Nowak, Christoph (56519458900)
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    Oancea, Bogdan (26658614800)
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    Odukoya, Oluwakemi Ololade (55356642300)
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    Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru (57194328445)
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    Ojo, Temitope T. (57206779828)
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    Olagunju, Andrew T. (26029995700)
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    Onwujekwe, Obinna E. (7003992855)
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    Ortiz, Alberto (7201911399)
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    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
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    Palladino, Raffaele (57215205417)
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    Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)
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    Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R. (7801638271)
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    Pardhan, Shahina (7003706887)
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    Parekh, Tarang (57205447202)
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    Parvizi, Mojtaba (56299606400)
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    Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino (57216890866)
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    Perianayagam, Arokiasamy (15053062900)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Pilania, Manju (55372464500)
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    Podder, Vivek (57201487580)
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    Polibin, Roman V. (36721857100)
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    Postma, Maarten J. (7006296502)
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    Prashant, Akila (16040597000)
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    Rabiee, Navid (57201008317)
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    Rabiee, Mohammad (24587922100)
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    Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446)
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    Rahman, Muhammad Aziz (55327627600)
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    Rahman, Md. Mosfequr (57706424400)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Rahmawaty, Setyaningrum (58491409700)
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    Rajai, Nazanin (57203222349)
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    Ram, Pradhum (55961669800)
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    Rana, Juwel (57191591600)
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    Ranabhat, Kamal (56622984700)
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    Ranasinghe, Priyanga (6602322079)
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    Rao, Chythra R. (35771430100)
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    Rao, Satish (56915158400)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Rawal, Lal (37262106500)
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    Renzaho, Andre M. N. (6505786588)
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    Rezaei, Nima (57216077273)
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    Rezapour, Aziz (55548281300)
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    Riahi, Seyed Mohammad (57193205976)
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    Ribeiro, Daniela (25626469800)
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    Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia (22936575000)
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    Roever, Leonardo (56641632800)
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    Rohloff, Peter (55533870500)
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    Rwegerera, Godfrey M. (56033523400)
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    Ryan, Paul MacDaragh (56900507400)
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    Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed (36100701200)
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    Sabour, Siamak (16307842100)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi (56071020000)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Sahoo, Harihar (44462008100)
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    Saif-Ur-Rahman, K.M. (55990659300)
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    Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900)
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    Samaei, Mehrnoosh (57225273791)
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    Sanabria, Juan (7006262917)
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    Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346)
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    Sathian, Brijesh (27467953500)
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    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu (54407369300)
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    Schlaich, Markus P. (7003349164)
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    Seidu, Abdul-Aziz (57200383297)
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    Šekerija, Mario (30268005400)
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    Kumar, Nachimuthu Senthil (57987796700)
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    Seylani, Allen (57222325334)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shamshad, Hina (24722237000)
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    Shawon, Md Shajedur Rahman (57195803485)
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    Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
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    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Shivakumar, K.M. (57221603938)
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    Shuval, Kerem (8215146800)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (7404421736)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981)
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    Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)
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    Sofi-Mahmudi, Ahmad (57216854132)
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    Soheili, Amin (57204123755)
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    Sun, Jing (55547135859)
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    Szerencsés, Viktória (57224626460)
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    Szócska, Miklós (13410278600)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tadbiri, Hooman (57138410000)
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    Tadesse, Eyayou Girma (57221591705)
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    Tariqujjaman, Md. (57198882369)
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    Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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    Thapar, Rekha (36337431900)
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    Thomas, Nihal (7401830494)
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    Timalsina, Binod (59537205600)
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    Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611)
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    Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Tripathy, Jaya Prasad (55290251600)
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    Car, Lorainne Tudor (48561867100)
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    Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356)
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    Uddin, Riaz (53064875600)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Verma, Madhur (57189521090)
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    Villalobos-Daniel, Victor E. (36549782300)
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    Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Vu, Giang Thu (57202424871)
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    Vukovic, Rade (37027529000)
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    Waheed, Yasir (35303643700)
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    Wamai, Richard G. (23969762700)
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    Werdecker, Andrea (57208964895)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Winkler, Andrea Sylvia (58323746700)
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    Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse (57200671454)
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    Xu, Xiaoyue (59560820600)
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    Xu, Suowen (35303824800)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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    Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304)
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    Yaya, Sanni (55191139800)
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    Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034)
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    Yi, Siyan (16837551600)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zadey, Siddhesh (57188589258)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465)
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    Zamora, Nelson (58338303800)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zmaili, Mohammad (57188702157)
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    Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885)
    Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    (2022)
    Cousin, Ewerton (57194620705)
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    Duncan, Bruce B. (35476478500)
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    Saif-Ur-Rahman, K.M. (55990659300)
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    Salimzadeh, Hamideh (23052386900)
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    Schlaich, Markus P. (7003349164)
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    Sheikhbahaei, Sara (57219637352)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich (57226830981)
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    Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)
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    Sofi-Mahmudi, Ahmad (57216854132)
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    Soheili, Amin (57204123755)
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    Sun, Jing (55547135859)
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    Szerencsés, Viktória (57224626460)
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    Szócska, Miklós (13410278600)
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    Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael (6602981102)
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    Tadbiri, Hooman (57138410000)
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    Tadesse, Eyayou Girma (57221591705)
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    Tariqujjaman, Md. (57198882369)
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    Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman (57202955435)
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    Thapar, Rekha (36337431900)
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    Thomas, Nihal (7401830494)
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    Timalsina, Binod (59537205600)
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    Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan (57209276611)
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    Tonelli, Marcello (7103102534)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Tran, Bach Xuan (57209107515)
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    Tripathy, Jaya Prasad (55290251600)
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    Car, Lorainne Tudor (48561867100)
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    Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356)
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    Uddin, Riaz (53064875600)
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    Upadhyay, Era (6505961711)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Verma, Madhur (57189521090)
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    Villalobos-Daniel, Victor E. (36549782300)
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    Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch (57195959162)
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    Wubishet, Befikadu Legesse (57200671454)
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    Xu, Xiaoyue (59560820600)
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    Xu, Suowen (35303824800)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
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    Yatsuya, Hiroshi (6603908304)
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    Yazie, Taklo Simeneh Yazie (57207254034)
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    Zaman, Sojib Bin (57193070058)
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    Zamanian, Maryam (57201292465)
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    Zamora, Nelson (58338303800)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zastrozhina, Anasthasia (57210832491)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zmaili, Mohammad (57188702157)
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    Zumla, Alimuddin (7006170723)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Schmidt, Maria Inês (7404398885)
    Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2024)
    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
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    Abbasgholizadeh, Rouzbeh (59152412000)
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    Khan Suheb, Mahammed Ziauddin (58283489900)
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    Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh (57216530776)
    Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022
    (2023)
    Mensah, George A. (57196028147)
    ;
    Fuster, Valentin (7202675508)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
    ;
    Roth, Gregory A. (58876328900)
    ;
    Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis (58492166600)
    ;
    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
    ;
    Abd-Allah, Foad (36503428900)
    ;
    Abdollahi, Ashkan (57226416583)
    ;
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    Schuermans, Art (57418786200)
    [No abstract available]
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
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    Rao, Chythra R (35771430100)
    ;
    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
    ;
    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
    ;
    Ratan, Zubair Ahmed (56769961300)
    ;
    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Renzaho, Andre M N (6505786588)
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    Rezaei, Negar (57218820767)
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    Rezaei, Zahed (56602649900)
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    Roever, Leonardo (56641632800)
    ;
    De Andrade Ruela, Guilherme (58574876700)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
    ;
    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Sanmarchi, Francesco (57221791070)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G (36248136000)
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    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
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    Shahrokhi, Shayan (57215794157)
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    Shaker, Elaheh (57216727831)
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    Shamsi, Mohammad Bagher (57204557980)
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    Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
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    Shaygan, Maryam (55226628200)
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    Sheikhi, Rahim Ali (39962437200)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K (15844347300)
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    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Shivalli, Siddharudha (55604704500)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A (58179112300)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Solmi, Marco (6507233742)
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    Somayaji, Ranjani (6507727557)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Thapar, Rekha (36337431900)
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    Tohidast, Seyed Abolfazl (57195324760)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valizadeh, Rohollah (57192641339)
    ;
    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
    ;
    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (57214976930)
    ;
    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
    ;
    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
    ;
    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
    ;
    Wiangkham, Taweewat (56829456300)
    ;
    Yadav, Lalit (57211483937)
    ;
    Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896)
    ;
    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
    ;
    Yang, Lin (57189045362)
    ;
    Yazdanpanah, Fereshteh (57189471516)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000)
    ;
    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
    ;
    Zarrintan, Armin (55368002200)
    ;
    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    March, Lyn M (16242275800)
    Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Ferreira, Manuela L (35721627100)
    ;
    De Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Haile, Lydia M (57219861536)
    ;
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D (57221591053)
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    Culbreth, Garland T (57996228700)
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    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
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    Kopec, Jacek A (7006284395)
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    Ferreira, Paulo H (8257787000)
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    Blyth, Fiona M (6603553964)
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    Buchbinder, Rachelle (7004966093)
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    Hartvigsen, Jan (56179334600)
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    Wu, Ai-Min (57203702647)
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    Safiri, Saeid (56009654100)
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    Woolf, Anthony D (57219134370)
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    Collins, Gary S (57944334400)
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    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Smith, Amanda E (56128141700)
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    Cruz, Jessica A (57219860697)
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    Fukutaki, Kai Glenn (57204561888)
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    Abate, Semagn Mekonnen (57210977757)
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    Abbasifard, Mitra (37053407900)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Zeinab (57441432300)
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    Abdelalim, Ahmed (7801307783)
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    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Alamer, Abayneh Tadesse (57217011122)
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    Alem, Adugnaw Zeleke (57215659585)
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    Alimohamadi, Yousef (56069375900)
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    Alshehri, Mansour Abdullah (57200038473)
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    Alshehri, Mohammed Mansour (57238309500)
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    Alzahrani, Hosam (57205435171)
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    Amini, Saeed (57210811281)
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    Amiri, Sohrab (57195335343)
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    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Andrei, Catalina Liliana (36543507200)
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    Andrei, Tudorel (24179349400)
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    Awoke, Nefsu (57207257383)
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    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
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    Bärnighausen, Till Winfried (23011726900)
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    Barrero, Lope H (57208560675)
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    Barzegar, Akbar (57195101911)
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    Bearne, Lindsay M (6506832476)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M (7004830338)
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    Berhie, Alemshet Yirga (57215095897)
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    Bhandari, Bharti Bhandari (8889327000)
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    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S (55989506600)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule (57819806600)
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    Bolla, Srinivasa Rao (23048516100)
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    Brazo-Sayavera, Javier (55978310300)
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    Briggs, Andrew M (7102129692)
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    Cao, Chao (57205476718)
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    Charalampous, Periklis (57226411746)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Cicuttini, Flavia M (7005887430)
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    Clarsen, Benjamin (36682048700)
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    Cuschieri, Sarah (55912623000)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (57221591169)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    Dehghan, Azizallah (55854146700)
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    Demie, Takele Gezahegn G (57205141176)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dewan, Syed Masudur Rahman (7102176358)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57226838689)
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    Dhimal, Mandira Lamichhane (57201374139)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Diaz, Daniel (56644152500)
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    Didehdar, Mojtaba (55965789800)
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    Digesa, Lankamo Ena (57223025144)
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    Diress, Mengistie (57222089627)
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    Do, Hoa Thi (57201113071)
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    Doan, Linh Phuong (57210071311)
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    Ekholuenetale, Michael (57189344745)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Eskandarieh, Sharareh (57211720158)
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    Faghani, Shahriar (57217388203)
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    Fares, Jawad (55606854400)
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    Fatehizadeh, Ali (36782045000)
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    Fetensa, Getahun (57211853863)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Franklin, Richard Charles (7201428429)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gemeda, Belete Negese Belete (57221750115)
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    Getachew, Motuma Erena (57204617481)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gill, Tiffany K (8545441900)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Goleij, Pouya (57217533849)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin (57210768364)
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    Hamal, Pawan Kumar (57196675748)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I (57218510727)
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    Hasani, Hamidreza (55632123200)
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    Hay, Simon I (7101875313)
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    Hebert, Jeffrey J (35233589600)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza (57204841868)
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    Hlongwa, Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni (57205240718)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
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    Iavicoli, Ivo (6603685479)
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    Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel (57212027408)
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    Ilic, Irena M (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D (7102981394)
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    Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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    Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar (12791073000)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    Jindal, Har Ashish (56086233400)
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    Jonas, Jost B (7202492953)
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    Kabito, Gebisa Guyasa (57213825881)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Kaur, Rimple Jeet (57190442227)
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    Keshri, Vikash Ranjan (57195604516)
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    Khader, Yousef Saleh (55654192600)
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    Khan, Ejaz Ahmad (57218791274)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Khan, Moien A B (57209800900)
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    Kashani, Hamid Reza Khayat (57132486000)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Klugarová, Jitka (56412151700)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Koohestani, Hamid Reza (26423051700)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (57197741912)
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    Kumar, G Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
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    Lallukka, Tea (6508300634)
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    Lasrado, Savita (36632480900)
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    Lee, Wei-Chen (57394248700)
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    Lee, Yo Han (57193632340)
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    Mahmoodpoor, Ata (12753259500)
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    Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N (57197819455)
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    Malekpour, Mohammad-Reza (57222048473)
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    Malekzadeh, Reza (7005197760)
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    Malih, Narges (56998762300)
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    Mehndiratta, Man Mohan (57202557864)
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    Nasab, Entezar Mehrabi (56062744400)
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    Menezes, Ritesh G (55517099900)
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    Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A (7003278838)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (57204623773)
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    Miller, Ted R (7403948600)
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    Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Mohammad (57194018318)
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    Mobarakabadi, Maryam (57261573100)
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    Mohammad, Yousef (6603403710)
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    Mohammadi, Esmaeil (57210443452)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962)
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    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
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    Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200)
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    Murray, Christopher J L (57224556036)
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    Nair, Tapas Sadasivan (59496484400)
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    Nazari, Javad (57207759174)
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    Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria (57218948511)
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    Neupane, Subas (57215632313)
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    Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)
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    Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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    Nowroozi, Ali (57208703471)
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    Okati-Aliabad, Hassan (57211186862)
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    Omer, Emad (57227106800)
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    Oulhaj, Abderrahim (12806312500)
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    Owolabi, Mayowa O (57222581892)
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    Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)
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    Pandey, Anamika (55633420800)
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    Park, Eun-Kee (57216814178)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Pereira, Jeevan (57218878130)
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    Peres, Mario F P (7006723305)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Pourahmadi, Mohammadreza (57189055859)
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    Radfar, Amir (57215049222)
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    Rahimi-Dehgolan, Shahram (57218196531)
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    Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa (6507646446)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Rahmani, Amir Masoud (57204588830)
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    Rajai, Nazanin (57203222349)
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    Rao, Chythra R (35771430100)
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    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
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    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
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    Ratan, Zubair Ahmed (56769961300)
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    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Renzaho, Andre M N (6505786588)
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    Rezaei, Negar (57218820767)
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    Rezaei, Zahed (56602649900)
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    Roever, Leonardo (56641632800)
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    De Andrade Ruela, Guilherme (58574876700)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Sanmarchi, Francesco (57221791070)
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    Sepanlou, Sadaf G (36248136000)
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    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
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    Shahrokhi, Shayan (57215794157)
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    Shaker, Elaheh (57216727831)
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    Shamsi, Mohammad Bagher (57204557980)
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    Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
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    Shaygan, Maryam (55226628200)
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    Sheikhi, Rahim Ali (39962437200)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K (15844347300)
    ;
    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Shivalli, Siddharudha (55604704500)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A (58179112300)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Solmi, Marco (6507233742)
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    Somayaji, Ranjani (6507727557)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Thapar, Rekha (36337431900)
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    Tohidast, Seyed Abolfazl (57195324760)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
    ;
    Valizadeh, Rohollah (57192641339)
    ;
    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy (57214976930)
    ;
    Vlassov, Vasily (57211633239)
    ;
    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
    ;
    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
    ;
    Wiangkham, Taweewat (56829456300)
    ;
    Yadav, Lalit (57211483937)
    ;
    Yadollahpour, Ali (57204564896)
    ;
    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
    ;
    Yang, Lin (57189045362)
    ;
    Yazdanpanah, Fereshteh (57189471516)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    Younis, Mustafa Z (8549393000)
    ;
    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
    ;
    Zarrintan, Armin (55368002200)
    ;
    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    March, Lyn M (16242275800)
    Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
    ;
    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
    ;
    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
    ;
    Rafferty, Quinn (58623265900)
    ;
    Lo, Justin (57219861047)
    ;
    Fukutaki, Kai Glenn (57204561888)
    ;
    Cruz, Jessica A. (57219860697)
    ;
    Smith, Amanda E. (56128141700)
    ;
    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
    ;
    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
    ;
    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
    ;
    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
    ;
    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
    ;
    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
    ;
    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
    ;
    Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400)
    ;
    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
    ;
    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
    ;
    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
    ;
    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
    ;
    Argaw, Ayele Mamo (57440825700)
    ;
    Artamonov, Anton A. (57089921800)
    ;
    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
    ;
    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
    ;
    Bearne, Lindsay M. (6506832476)
    ;
    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
    ;
    Berhie, Alemshet Yirga (57215095897)
    ;
    Bhardwaj, Nikha (57221591832)
    ;
    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
    ;
    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
    ;
    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
    ;
    Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334)
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    Briggs, Andrew M. (7102129692)
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    Butt, Nadeem Shafique (7003613681)
    ;
    Charan, Jaykaran (9251091600)
    ;
    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
    ;
    Cicuttini, Flavia M. (7005887430)
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    Coberly, Kaleb (58139389800)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    de Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57226838689)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Dianatinasab, Mostafa (57281638900)
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    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Farooque, Umar (57215323961)
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    Farpour, Hamid Reza (57197813208)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
    ;
    Freitas, Marisa (13406823400)
    ;
    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gemeda, Belete Negese Belete (57221750115)
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    Getachew, Tamiru (57219894584)
    ;
    Ghamari, Seyyed-Hadi (57207567632)
    ;
    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
    ;
    Golinelli, Davide (57194230279)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
    ;
    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
    ;
    Haddadi, Rasool (55212384300)
    ;
    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
    ;
    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
    ;
    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
    ;
    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
    ;
    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
    ;
    Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903)
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    Hartvigsen, Jan (56179334600)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hebert, Jeffrey J. (35233589600)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
    ;
    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
    ;
    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
    ;
    Jacob, Louis (56779678900)
    ;
    Jayawardena, Ranil (55010295200)
    ;
    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
    ;
    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
    ;
    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
    ;
    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
    ;
    Korzh, Oleksii (7004882843)
    ;
    Koteeswaran, Rajasekaran (56685819200)
    ;
    Krishnamoorthy, Vijay (36890481900)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
    ;
    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
    ;
    Lee, Sang-Woong (57193130569)
    ;
    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
    ;
    Lobo, Stany W. (58359238600)
    ;
    Lucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500)
    ;
    Malekpour, Mohammad-Reza (57222048473)
    ;
    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
    ;
    Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia Garcia (55342472900)
    ;
    Martini, Santi (57162600900)
    ;
    Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A. (7003278838)
    ;
    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (58235085100)
    ;
    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
    ;
    Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57508336100)
    ;
    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
    ;
    Mohammadpourhodki, Reza (59683528600)
    ;
    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
    ;
    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
    ;
    Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100)
    ;
    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
    ;
    Nassereldine, Hasan (57226192220)
    ;
    Netsere, Henok Biresaw (57218199940)
    ;
    Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)
    ;
    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
    ;
    Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)
    ;
    Pandey, Anamika (55633420800)
    ;
    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
    ;
    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
    ;
    Pereira, Jeevan (57218878130)
    ;
    Radfar, Amir (57215049222)
    ;
    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
    ;
    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
    ;
    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
    ;
    Rawassizadeh, Reza (36634807900)
    ;
    Rayegani, Seyed-Mansoor (56020941000)
    ;
    Ribeiro, Daniela (25626469800)
    ;
    Roever, Leonardo (57210591685)
    ;
    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
    ;
    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
    ;
    Riera, Lidia Sanchez (57214470272)
    ;
    Sanmarchi, Francesco (57221791070)
    ;
    Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346)
    ;
    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
    ;
    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shaker, Elaheh (57216727831)
    ;
    Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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    Sharma, Rajendra (57224751847)
    ;
    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
    ;
    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
    ;
    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
    ;
    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
    ;
    Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000)
    ;
    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
    ;
    Singh, Jasvinder A. (58179112300)
    ;
    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
    ;
    Skou, Søren T. (55214029900)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Soltani-Zangbar, Mohammad Sadegh (57189099987)
    ;
    Starodubova, Antonina V. (44961337600)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
    ;
    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Vu, Linh Gia (57210070319)
    ;
    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
    ;
    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
    ;
    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation: Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Publication
    Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
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    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
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    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
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    Rafferty, Quinn (58623265900)
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    Lo, Justin (57219861047)
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    Fukutaki, Kai Glenn (57204561888)
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    Cruz, Jessica A. (57219860697)
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    Smith, Amanda E. (56128141700)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
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    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
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    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
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    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
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    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
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    Ackerman, Ilana N. (8925517400)
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    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Argaw, Ayele Mamo (57440825700)
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    Artamonov, Anton A. (57089921800)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
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    Bearne, Lindsay M. (6506832476)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Berhie, Alemshet Yirga (57215095897)
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    Bhardwaj, Nikha (57221591832)
    ;
    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
    ;
    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
    ;
    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Briant, Paul Svitil (57196152334)
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    Briggs, Andrew M. (7102129692)
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    Butt, Nadeem Shafique (7003613681)
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    Charan, Jaykaran (9251091600)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Cicuttini, Flavia M. (7005887430)
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    Coberly, Kaleb (58139389800)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    Dandona, Lalit (7007017243)
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    Dandona, Rakhi (57203043697)
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    de Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar (25228198700)
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    Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda (57226838689)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Dianatinasab, Mostafa (57281638900)
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    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    Farooque, Umar (57215323961)
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    Farpour, Hamid Reza (57197813208)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Freitas, Marisa (13406823400)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gemeda, Belete Negese Belete (57221750115)
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    Getachew, Tamiru (57219894584)
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    Ghamari, Seyyed-Hadi (57207567632)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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    Golechha, Mahaveer (36006347600)
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    Golinelli, Davide (57194230279)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Haddadi, Rasool (55212384300)
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    Hafezi-Nejad, Nima (57216814261)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hamidi, Samer (24366336000)
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    Hanif, Asif (55360052800)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
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    Haro, Josep Maria (57215877903)
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    Hartvigsen, Jan (56179334600)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hebert, Jeffrey J. (35233589600)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Hosseini, Mohammad-Salar (57209828879)
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    Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi (57201880569)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Ilic, Milena D. (7102981394)
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    Jacob, Louis (56779678900)
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    Jayawardena, Ranil (55010295200)
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    Jha, Ravi Prakash (58586863400)
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    Jonas, Jost B. (7202492953)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Korzh, Oleksii (7004882843)
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    Koteeswaran, Rajasekaran (56685819200)
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    Krishnamoorthy, Vijay (36890481900)
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    Kumar, G. Anil (57139550500)
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    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
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    Lee, Sang-Woong (57193130569)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lobo, Stany W. (58359238600)
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    Lucchetti, Giancarlo (35790096500)
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    Malekpour, Mohammad-Reza (57222048473)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
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    Mandarano-Filho, Luiz Garcia Garcia (55342472900)
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    Martini, Santi (57162600900)
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    Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A. (7003278838)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (58235085100)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57508336100)
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    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
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    Mohammadpourhodki, Reza (59683528600)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
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    Morrison, Shane Douglas (45661573100)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
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    Nassereldine, Hasan (57226192220)
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    Netsere, Henok Biresaw (57218199940)
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    Kandel, Sandhya Neupane (57222966618)
    ;
    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
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    Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra (6603112353)
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    Pandey, Anamika (55633420800)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Pereira, Jeevan (57218878130)
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    Radfar, Amir (57215049222)
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    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
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    Rawaf, David Laith (57209228052)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rawassizadeh, Reza (36634807900)
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    Rayegani, Seyed-Mansoor (56020941000)
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    Ribeiro, Daniela (25626469800)
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    Roever, Leonardo (57210591685)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Riera, Lidia Sanchez (57214470272)
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    Sanmarchi, Francesco (57221791070)
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    Santric-Milicevic, Milena M. (57211144346)
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    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shaker, Elaheh (57216727831)
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    Shannawaz, Mohammed (56349680200)
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    Sharma, Rajendra (57224751847)
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    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
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    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Silva, Diego Augusto Santos (36985158000)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (58179112300)
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    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
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    Skou, Søren T. (55214029900)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Soltani-Zangbar, Mohammad Sadegh (57189099987)
    ;
    Starodubova, Antonina V. (44961337600)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Vo, Bay (35147075900)
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    Vu, Linh Gia (57210070319)
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    Wang, Yuan-Pang (8576812100)
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    Jabbari, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh (57207954055)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation: Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
    ;
    Mittinty, Manasi Murthy (57196050930)
    ;
    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    ;
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
    ;
    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
    ;
    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    ;
    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
    ;
    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
    ;
    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. (6504143605)
    ;
    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
    ;
    Betteridge, Neil (6508129125)
    ;
    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
    ;
    Abbasifard, Mitra (37053407900)
    ;
    Abedi, Krishna (58686706700)
    ;
    Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun (57212196361)
    ;
    Aithala, Janardhana P. (57991341700)
    ;
    Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa (57214720242)
    ;
    Thaher, Yazan Al (57194165738)
    ;
    Alalwan, Tariq A. (57196458366)
    ;
    Alzahrani, Hosam (57205435171)
    ;
    Amiri, Sohrab (57195335343)
    ;
    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
    ;
    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Arumugam, Ashokan (38760929800)
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    Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Atreya, Alok (55856196800)
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    Baghdadi, Soroush (35290614300)
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    Bardhan, Mainak (57819452400)
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    Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675)
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    Bearne, Lindsay M. (6506832476)
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    Bekele, Alehegn Bekele (57211266848)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
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    Bhatti, Rajbir (26022895800)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bordianu, Theresa (57194586236)
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    Bouaoud, Souad (57196422454)
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    Briggs, Andrew M. (7102129692)
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    Cheema, Huzaifa Ahmad (57367880200)
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    Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee (56443447700)
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    Chukwu, Isaac Sunday (57217204488)
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    Clarsen, Benjamin (36682048700)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    de Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Desye, Belay (57224639134)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Do, Thanh Chi (58537658400)
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    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis (50861113000)
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    Forghani, Siamak Farokh (57189069738)
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    Ferreira, Nuno (36782210100)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gebrehiwot, Mesfin (57192100745)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Graham, Simon Matthew (35740364200)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
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    Hartvigsen, Jan (56179334600)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hasanian, Mohammad (57218697987)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Jokar, Mohammad (57221729841)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Khanal, Praval (56272623700)
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    Khateri, Sorour (57192959720)
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    Kiadaliri, Ali (57199100665)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Krishnamoorthy, Vijay (36890481900)
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    Landires, Iván (15063040000)
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    Larijani, Bagher (57205307740)
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    Le, Thao Thi Thu (57736182100)
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    Lee, Yo Han (57193632340)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lo, Justin (57219861047)
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    Madani, Seyedeh Panid (57970208200)
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    Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N. (57197819455)
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    Malik, Iram (57209103879)
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    Marateb, Hamid Reza (35759194200)
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    Mathew, Ashish J. (25930994300)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (58235085100)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Mirahmadi, Alireza (57752668600)
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    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
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    Mohaghegh, Sadra (57222243177)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Momenzadeh, Kaveh (57216521815)
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    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
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    Moradi, Yousef (55338348700)
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    Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200)
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    Muhammad, Jibran Sualeh (36739610100)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Muthu, Sathish (57217850874)
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    Nargus, Shumaila (58491929300)
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    Nassereldine, Hasan (57226192220)
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    Neupane, Subas (57215632313)
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    Niazi, Robina Khan (57204666021)
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    Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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    Okati-Aliabad, Hassan (57211186862)
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    Oulhaj, Abderrahim (12806312500)
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    Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin (57201981698)
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    Park, Seoyeon (57384211300)
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    Patel, Jay (59222700400)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Peres, Mario F. P. (7006723305)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily (57220028899)
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    Poursadeqiyan, Mohsen (57190208368)
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    Qattea, Ibrahim (57222260346)
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    Qureshi, Maryam Faiz (58660713100)
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    Rafferty, Quinn (58623265900)
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    Rahimi-Dehgolan, Shahram (57218196531)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran (58321724400)
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    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
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    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
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    Ribeiro, Daniel Cury (23986392500)
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    Roever, Leonardo (57210591685)
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    Safary, Azam (56070686400)
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    Sagoe, Dominic (55505787200)
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    Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Saheb (56161060900)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
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    Shafaat, Amir (59122390900)
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    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
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    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
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    Shashamo, Bereket Beyene (57223025060)
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    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Smith, Amanda E. (56128141700)
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    Sunuwar, Dev Ram (57207949901)
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    Tabish, Mohammad (57211184911)
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    Tharwat, Samar (57192417685)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
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    Villafañe, Jorge Hugo (57197861057)
    ;
    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
    ;
    Wiangkham, Taweewat (56829456300)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    You, Yuyi (49865138500)
    ;
    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
    ;
    Zheng, Peng (57213707656)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
    Background: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts. Findings: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431–564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9–129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192–253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107–124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964–1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9–49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65–69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4–60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600–91 600). Interpretation: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
    ;
    Mittinty, Manasi Murthy (57196050930)
    ;
    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    ;
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
    ;
    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
    ;
    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    ;
    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
    ;
    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
    ;
    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. (6504143605)
    ;
    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
    ;
    Betteridge, Neil (6508129125)
    ;
    Abbasian, Mohammadreza (9846109700)
    ;
    Abbasifard, Mitra (37053407900)
    ;
    Abedi, Krishna (58686706700)
    ;
    Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun (57212196361)
    ;
    Aithala, Janardhana P. (57991341700)
    ;
    Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Mostafa (57214720242)
    ;
    Thaher, Yazan Al (57194165738)
    ;
    Alalwan, Tariq A. (57196458366)
    ;
    Alzahrani, Hosam (57205435171)
    ;
    Amiri, Sohrab (57195335343)
    ;
    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
    ;
    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
    ;
    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Arumugam, Ashokan (38760929800)
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    Aryal, Krishna K. (57203859052)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Atreya, Alok (55856196800)
    ;
    Baghdadi, Soroush (35290614300)
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    Bardhan, Mainak (57819452400)
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    Barrero, Lope H. (57208560675)
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    Bearne, Lindsay M. (6506832476)
    ;
    Bekele, Alehegn Bekele (57211266848)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
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    Bhatti, Rajbir (26022895800)
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    Bijani, Ali (23134684900)
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    Bordianu, Theresa (57194586236)
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    Bouaoud, Souad (57196422454)
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    Briggs, Andrew M. (7102129692)
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    Cheema, Huzaifa Ahmad (57367880200)
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    Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee (56443447700)
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    Chukwu, Isaac Sunday (57217204488)
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    Clarsen, Benjamin (36682048700)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    de Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Desye, Belay (57224639134)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Do, Thanh Chi (58537658400)
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    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis (50861113000)
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    Forghani, Siamak Farokh (57189069738)
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    Ferreira, Nuno (36782210100)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gebrehiwot, Mesfin (57192100745)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Graham, Simon Matthew (35740364200)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
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    Hartvigsen, Jan (56179334600)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hasanian, Mohammad (57218697987)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Heidari, Mohammad (56494430400)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Jokar, Mohammad (57221729841)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Khanal, Praval (56272623700)
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    Khateri, Sorour (57192959720)
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    Kiadaliri, Ali (57199100665)
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    Kim, Min Seo (57203591936)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Krishnamoorthy, Vijay (36890481900)
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    Landires, Iván (15063040000)
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    Larijani, Bagher (57205307740)
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    Le, Thao Thi Thu (57736182100)
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    Lee, Yo Han (57193632340)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lo, Justin (57219861047)
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    Madani, Seyedeh Panid (57970208200)
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    Malagón-Rojas, Jeadran N. (57197819455)
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    Malik, Iram (57209103879)
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    Marateb, Hamid Reza (35759194200)
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    Mathew, Ashish J. (25930994300)
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    Meretoja, Tuomo J. (57219008708)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (58235085100)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Mirahmadi, Alireza (57752668600)
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    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
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    Mohaghegh, Sadra (57222243177)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Momenzadeh, Kaveh (57216521815)
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    Momtazmanesh, Sara (57212649454)
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    Monasta, Lorenzo (7801520497)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
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    Moradi, Yousef (55338348700)
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    Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200)
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    Muhammad, Jibran Sualeh (36739610100)
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    Murray, Christopher J. L. (57224556036)
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    Muthu, Sathish (57217850874)
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    Nargus, Shumaila (58491929300)
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    Nassereldine, Hasan (57226192220)
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    Neupane, Subas (57215632313)
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    Niazi, Robina Khan (57204666021)
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    Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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    Okati-Aliabad, Hassan (57211186862)
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    Oulhaj, Abderrahim (12806312500)
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    Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin (57201981698)
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    Park, Seoyeon (57384211300)
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    Patel, Jay (59222700400)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Peres, Mario F. P. (7006723305)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily (57220028899)
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    Poursadeqiyan, Mohsen (57190208368)
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    Qattea, Ibrahim (57222260346)
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    Qureshi, Maryam Faiz (58660713100)
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    Rafferty, Quinn (58623265900)
    ;
    Rahimi-Dehgolan, Shahram (57218196531)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
    ;
    Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran (58321724400)
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    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
    ;
    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
    ;
    Ribeiro, Daniel Cury (23986392500)
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    Roever, Leonardo (57210591685)
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    Safary, Azam (56070686400)
    ;
    Sagoe, Dominic (55505787200)
    ;
    Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Saheb (56161060900)
    ;
    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
    ;
    Salehi, Sana (57209618440)
    ;
    Shafaat, Amir (59122390900)
    ;
    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
    ;
    Sharma, Saurab (56999537500)
    ;
    Shashamo, Bereket Beyene (57223025060)
    ;
    Shiri, Rahman (57200737050)
    ;
    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
    ;
    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
    ;
    Smith, Amanda E. (56128141700)
    ;
    Sunuwar, Dev Ram (57207949901)
    ;
    Tabish, Mohammad (57211184911)
    ;
    Tharwat, Samar (57192417685)
    ;
    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
    ;
    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
    ;
    Vasankari, Tommi Juhani (57200592416)
    ;
    Villafañe, Jorge Hugo (57197861057)
    ;
    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
    ;
    Wiangkham, Taweewat (56829456300)
    ;
    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
    ;
    You, Yuyi (49865138500)
    ;
    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
    ;
    Zheng, Peng (57213707656)
    ;
    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
    ;
    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
    Background: Musculoskeletal disorders include more than 150 different conditions affecting joints, muscles, bones, ligaments, tendons, and the spine. To capture all health loss from death and disability due to musculoskeletal disorders, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) includes a residual musculoskeletal category for conditions other than osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, gout, low back pain, and neck pain. This category is called other musculoskeletal disorders and includes, for example, systemic lupus erythematosus and spondylopathies. We provide updated estimates of the prevalence, mortality, and disability attributable to other musculoskeletal disorders and forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using data from 68 sources across 23 countries from which subtraction of cases of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain, and gout from the total number of cases of musculoskeletal disorders was possible. Data were analysed with Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence by year, age, sex, and location. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence and disability weights. Mortality attributed to other musculoskeletal disorders was estimated using vital registration data. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 by regressing prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2020 with Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by population forecasts. Findings: Globally, 494 million (95% uncertainty interval 431–564) people had other musculoskeletal disorders in 2020, an increase of 123·4% (116·9–129·3) in total cases from 221 million (192–253) in 1990. Cases of other musculoskeletal disorders are projected to increase by 115% (107–124) from 2020 to 2050, to an estimated 1060 million (95% UI 964–1170) prevalent cases in 2050; most regions were projected to have at least a 50% increase in cases between 2020 and 2050. The global age-standardised prevalence of other musculoskeletal disorders was 47·4% (44·9–49·4) higher in females than in males and increased with age to a peak at 65–69 years in male and female sexes. In 2020, other musculoskeletal disorders was the sixth ranked cause of YLDs globally (42·7 million [29·4–60·0]) and was associated with 83 100 deaths (73 600–91 600). Interpretation: Other musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for a large number of global YLDs in 2020. Until individual conditions and risk factors are more explicitly quantified, policy responses to this burden remain a challenge. Temporal trends and geographical differences in estimates of non-fatal disease burden should not be overinterpreted as they are based on sparse, low-quality data. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Black, Rachel J. (53263223000)
    ;
    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
    ;
    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
    ;
    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
    ;
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
    ;
    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    ;
    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
    ;
    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. (6504143605)
    ;
    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
    ;
    Betteridge, Neil (6508129125)
    ;
    Aali, Amirali (57819452000)
    ;
    Abbasifard, Mitra (37053407900)
    ;
    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
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    Abdurehman, Ame Mehadi (58660534900)
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    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
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    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
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    Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826)
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    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
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    Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)
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    Abu-Zaid, Ahmed (45861125100)
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    Adamu, Kidist (57668751000)
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    Addo, Isaac Yeboah (56305995900)
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    Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun (57212196361)
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    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
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    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
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    Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030)
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    Aithala, Janardhana P. (57991341700)
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    Akhlaghdoust, Meisam (56809376300)
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    Alemayehu, Astawus (57223414662)
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    Alvand, Saba (57209342946)
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    Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
    ;
    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
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    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
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    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
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    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
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    Arulappan, Judie (57224210161)
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    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
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    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
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    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
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    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
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    Baghcheghi, Nayereh (35092167000)
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    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
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    Balta, Asaminew Birhanu (57820322100)
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    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
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    Banik, Palash Chandra (57193523050)
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    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
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    Bashiri, Azadeh (56900999700)
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    Bearne, Lindsay M. (6506832476)
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    Bekele, Alehegn (57211266848)
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    Bensenor, Isabela M. (7004830338)
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    Berhie, Alemshet Yirga (57215095897)
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    Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth (56398498300)
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    Bhardwaj, Pankaj (57226841442)
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    Bhat, Ajay Nagesh (57819974900)
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    Bhojaraja, Vijayalakshmi S. (55989506600)
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    Bitaraf, Saeid (57201361911)
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    Bodicha, Belay Boda Abule (57819806600)
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    Botelho, João Silva (59843789000)
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    Briggs, Andrew M. (7102129692)
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    Buchbinder, Rachelle (7004966093)
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    Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. (35769124700)
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    Charalampous, Periklis (57226411746)
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    Chattu, Vijay Kumar (55743746500)
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    Coberly, Kaleb (58139389800)
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    Cruz-Martins, Natália (57203415019)
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    Dadras, Omid (57205721978)
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    Dai, Xiaochen (58530783700)
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    de Luca, Katie (36485942000)
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    Dessalegn, Fikadu Nugusu (57459332800)
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    Dessie, Gashaw (57211533190)
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    Dhimal, Meghnath (54941157300)
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    Digesa, Lankamo Ena (57223025144)
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    Diress, Mengistie (57222089627)
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    Doku, Paul Narh (36089696500)
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    Edinur, Hisham Atan (57287676500)
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    Ekholuenetale, Michael (57189344745)
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    Elhadi, Muhammed (57212082248)
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    El-Sherbiny, Yasser Mohamed (6508271093)
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    Etaee, Farshid (57193773903)
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    Ezzeddini, Rana (54917204900)
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    Faghani, Shahriar (57217388203)
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    Filip, Irina (55570061400)
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    Fischer, Florian (55508208800)
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    Fukumoto, Takeshi (26531100300)
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    Ganesan, Balasankar (57191928063)
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    Gebremichael, Mathewos Alemu (57218381801)
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    Gerema, Urge (57216249028)
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    Getachew, Motuma Erena (57204617481)
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    Ghashghaee, Ahmad (57194174020)
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    Gill, Tiffany K. (8545441900)
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    Gupta, Bhawna (56763353100)
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    Gupta, Sapna (57217857409)
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    Gupta, Veer Bala (57194978364)
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    Gupta, Vivek Kumar (35073936800)
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    Halwani, Rabih (15065354400)
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    Hannan, Md Abdul (55122778800)
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    Haque, Shafiul (35793732800)
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    Harlianto, Netanja I. (57218510727)
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    Harorani, Mehdi (57195316126)
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    Hasaballah, Ahmed I. (56002305300)
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    Hassen, Mohammed Bheser (58491683100)
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    Hay, Simon I. (7101875313)
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    Hayat, Khezar (57219918947)
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    Heidari, Golnaz (57218883864)
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    Hezam, Kamal (57199187791)
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    Hill, Catherine L. (57202566690)
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    Hiraike, Yuta (55701690300)
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    Horita, Nobuyuki (57217110823)
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    Hoveidaei, Amir Human (6505589440)
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    Hsiao, Alexander Kevin (58596077600)
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    Hsieh, Evelyn (7003884869)
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    Hussain, Salman (57193956545)
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    Iavicoli, Ivo (6603685479)
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    Ilic, Irena M. (57210823522)
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    Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful (56400111100)
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    Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah (57885381900)
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    Iwagami, Masao (54381883100)
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    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo (14318929700)
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    Jani, Chinmay T. (57218651211)
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    Jeganathan, Jayakumar (55312958400)
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    Joseph, Nitin (35292547200)
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    Kadashetti, Vidya (56724219200)
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    Kandel, Himal (57226834655)
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    Kanko, Tesfaye K. (57219894376)
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    Karaye, Ibraheem M. (55598638900)
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    Khajuria, Himanshu (56639982500)
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    Khan, Md Jobair (57298003900)
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    Khan, Moien A.B. (57209800900)
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    Khanali, Javad (57219388410)
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    Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad (26421267800)
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    Khubchandani, Jagdish (57211720011)
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    Kim, Yun Jin (57211086375)
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    Kisa, Adnan (6603346067)
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    Kolahi, Ali-Asghar (24331775400)
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    Kompani, Farzad (56071483000)
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    Koohestani, Hamid Reza (26423051700)
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    Koyanagi, Ai (59269920500)
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    Krishan, Kewal (57202279708)
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    Kuddus, Mohammed (8596487800)
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    Kumar, Narinder (8215803600)
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    Kuttikkattu, Ambily (57860475200)
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    Larijani, Bagher (57205307740)
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    Lim, Stephen S. (57201800433)
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    Lo, Justin (57219861047)
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    Machado, Vanessa Sintra (57194831389)
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    Mahajan, Preetam Bhalchandra (57168727200)
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    Majeed, Azeem (57217722657)
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    Rad, Elaheh Malakan (55105272200)
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    Malik, Ahmad Azam (57198682313)
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    Mansournia, Mohammad Ali (34570618600)
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    Mathews, Elezebeth (55572555900)
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    Mendes, José João (57194835015)
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    Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A. (7003278838)
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    Mesregah, Mohamed Kamal (58235085100)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Mirghaderi, Seyed Peyman (57226428360)
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    Mirrakhimov, Erkin M. (57508336100)
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    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
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    Mohamadkhani, Ashraf (9747546000)
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    Mohammed, Shafiu (57838689000)
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    Mokdad, Ali H. (7004813962)
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    Moniruzzaman, Md (56392674200)
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    Al Montasir, Ahmed (57222707819)
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    Mulu, Getaneh Baye (57194027635)
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    Murillo-Zamora, Efrén (55496438100)
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    Murray, Christopher J.L. (57224556036)
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    Mustafa, Ghulam (57190395960)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Nair, Tapas Sadasivan (59496484400)
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    Naqvi, Atta Abbas (56501393600)
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    Natto, Zuhair S. (37000768500)
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    Nayak, Biswa Prakash (56639942500)
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    Neupane, Subas (57215632313)
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    Nguyen, Cuong Tat (56531347200)
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    Niazi, Robina Khan (57204666021)
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    Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet (57819279400)
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    Oh, In-Hwan (57204090669)
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    Okati-Aliabad, Hassan (57211186862)
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    Okonji, Osaretin Christabel (57222864302)
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    Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa (57216286071)
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    Owolabi, Mayowa O. (57222581892)
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    Pacheco-Barrios, Kevin (57201981698)
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    Padubidri, Jagadish Rao (58295062300)
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    Patel, Jay (59222700400)
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    Pathan, Aslam Ramjan (57202252987)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Pedersini, Paolo (57202983547)
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    Perianayagam, Arokiasamy (15053062900)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Qattea, Ibrahim (57222260346)
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    Radfar, Amir (57215049222)
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    Rafiei, Alireza (13205769200)
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    Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz (57202017378)
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    Rahmanian, Vahid (55367908800)
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    Rashedi, Vahid (55775014100)
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    Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi (57324471900)
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    Ratan, Zubair Ahmed (56769961300)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Razeghinia, Mohammad Sadegh (57203060460)
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    Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed (59012858000)
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    Renzaho, Andre M.N. (6505786588)
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    Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900)
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    Rezaei, Nima (57216077273)
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    Riad, Abanoub (57218221621)
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    Saad, Aly M.A. (56740147200)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Saeed, Umar (36612315100)
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    Safary, Azam (56070686400)
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    Sahebazzamani, Maryam (57350889700)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Sahoo, Harihar (44462008100)
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    Farrokhi, Amir Salek (58192107000)
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    Saqib, Muhammad Arif Nadeem (57213570386)
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    Seylani, Allen (57222325334)
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    Shahabi, Saeed (57211581903)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Shashamo, Bereket Beyene (57223025060)
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    Shetty, Adithi (57315189400)
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    Shetty, Jeevan K. (15844347300)
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    Shigematsu, Mika (23968093000)
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    Shivarov, Velizar (15623607900)
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    Shobeiri, Parnian (57218601156)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Sinaei, Ehsan (57193155429)
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    Singh, Ambrish (57214875932)
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    Singh, Jasvinder A. (58179112300)
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    Singh, Paramdeep (57202809996)
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    Singh, Surjit (55740397100)
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    Siraj, Md Shahjahan (57216886120)
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    Skryabina, Anna Aleksandrovna (57218875198)
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    Slater, Helen (7006294272)
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    Smith, Amanda E. (56128141700)
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    Solomon, Yonatan (57220875005)
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    Soltani-Zangbar, Mohammad Sadegh (57189099987)
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    Tabish, Mohammad (57211184911)
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    Tan, Ker-Kan (16745396700)
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    Tat, Nathan Y. (57820156400)
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    Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash (57204006020)
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    Tharwat, Samar (57192417685)
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    Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto (56644977900)
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    Tusa, Biruk Shalmeno (57216200356)
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    Tahbaz, Sahel Valadan (57216154072)
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    Valdez, Pascual R. (57202115577)
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    Valizadeh, Rohollah (57192641339)
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    Vaziri, Siavash (24460825100)
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    Vollset, Stein Emil (57196315778)
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    Wu, Ai-Min (58498490700)
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    Yada, Dereje Y. (58492171400)
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    Yehualashet, Sisay Shewasinad (57206778326)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    You, Yuyi (49865138500)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zarrintan, Armin (55368002200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Iang (56068578400)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation: Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
    Black, Rachel J. (53263223000)
    ;
    Cross, Marita (57200967636)
    ;
    Haile, Lydia M. (57219861536)
    ;
    Culbreth, Garland T. (57996228700)
    ;
    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
    ;
    Hagins, Hailey (57219860838)
    ;
    Kopec, Jacek A. (7006284395)
    ;
    Brooks, Peter M. (57216814350)
    ;
    Woolf, Anthony D. (57219134370)
    ;
    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
    ;
    Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. (6504143605)
    ;
    Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. (26323125200)
    ;
    Betteridge, Neil (6508129125)
    ;
    Aali, Amirali (57819452000)
    ;
    Abbasifard, Mitra (37053407900)
    ;
    Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen (57193543882)
    ;
    Abdurehman, Ame Mehadi (58660534900)
    ;
    Abedi, Aidin (56673854800)
    ;
    Abidi, Hassan (36769387800)
    ;
    Aboagye, Richard Gyan (57221438826)
    ;
    Abolhassani, Hassan (58597704600)
    ;
    Abu-Gharbieh, Eman (24586714800)
    ;
    Abu-Zaid, Ahmed (45861125100)
    ;
    Adamu, Kidist (57668751000)
    ;
    Addo, Isaac Yeboah (56305995900)
    ;
    Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun (57212196361)
    ;
    Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah (57211604149)
    ;
    Afzal, Muhammad Sohail (56009310800)
    ;
    Ahmed, Ayman (57199492030)
    ;
    Aithala, Janardhana P. (57991341700)
    ;
    Akhlaghdoust, Meisam (56809376300)
    ;
    Alemayehu, Astawus (57223414662)
    ;
    Alvand, Saba (57209342946)
    ;
    Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. (57193279948)
    ;
    Amu, Hubert (57190183918)
    ;
    Antony, Benny (55776194600)
    ;
    Arabloo, Jalal (57208760927)
    ;
    Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. (35386103000)
    ;
    Arulappan, Judie (57224210161)
    ;
    Ashraf, Tahira (56366752600)
    ;
    Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin (26653399600)
    ;
    Azadnajafabad, Sina (57219389837)
    ;
    Badawi, Alaa (57216776029)
    ;
    Baghcheghi, Nayereh (35092167000)
    ;
    Baig, Atif Amin (49460999600)
    ;
    Balta, Asaminew Birhanu (57820322100)
    ;
    Banach, Maciej (22936699500)
    ;
    Banik, Palash Chandra (57193523050)
    ;
    Barrow, Amadou (57217061576)
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    You, Yuyi (49865138500)
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    Yunusa, Ismaeel (57202137670)
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    Zangiabadian, Moein (57219666210)
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    Zare, Iman (57224488480)
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    Zarrintan, Armin (55368002200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Iang (56068578400)
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    Zhong, Chenwen (59289905900)
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    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    March, Lyn M. (16242275800)
    Background: Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation: Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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    Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000–2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    (2023)
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    Mestrovic, Tomislav (6507240107)
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    Miller, Ted R (7403948600)
    ;
    Mirmoeeni, Seyyedmohammadsadeq (57218585171)
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    Misganaw, Awoke (57202808713)
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    Mishra, Manish (57213025989)
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    Misra, Sanjeev (35501005200)
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    Mittal, Chaitanya (57200363487)
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    Mohammadi, Esmaeil (57210443452)
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    Mokdad, Ali H (7004813962)
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    Moni, Mohammad Ali (35119094400)
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    Mostafavi, Ebrahim (57440829200)
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    Mubarik, Sumaira (57202290474)
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    Mulita, Francesk (57200275021)
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    Mulualem, Jember Azanaw (58660537200)
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    Mulugeta, Temesgen (57219864186)
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    Murray, Christopher J L (55481130700)
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    Myers, Isabella (8845533900)
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    Nayak, Biswa Prakash (56639942500)
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    Nayak, Vinod C (24385399000)
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    Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria (57218948511)
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    Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi (57226837406)
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    Nguyen, Van Thanh (58491437100)
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    Nouraei, Hasti (55360408900)
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    Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet (57819279400)
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    Okati-Aliabad, Hassan (57211186862)
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    Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa (57216286071)
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    Ordak, Michal (55992015900)
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    Padron-Monedero, Alicia (56532107100)
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    Padubidri, Jagadish Rao (58295062300)
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    Pandey, Ashok (57210886573)
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    Pant, Suman (57219171446)
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    Parekh, Utsav (55804990900)
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    Pawar, Shrikant (58594958600)
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    Peden, Amy E (32367835400)
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    Petcu, Ionela-Roxana (57094897500)
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    Piel, Frédéric B (56866735900)
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    Piracha, Zahra Zahid (57189084862)
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    Pourali, Ghazaleh (57430263500)
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    Qattea, Ibrahim (57222260346)
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    Qureshi, Maryam Faiz (58660713100)
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    Raghav, Pankaja Raghav (57208123272)
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    Rahman, Mosiur (55457953000)
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    Rahmani, Shayan (57226290079)
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    Ramasubramani, Premkumar (59722112000)
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    Ramazanu, Sheena (57211945291)
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    Rawaf, Salman (6602475959)
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    Rezaei, Nazila (36700192900)
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    Rezaei, Negar (57218820767)
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    Rezaeian, Mohsen (15053682700)
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    Saddik, Basema (23020079300)
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    Sadeghi, Malihe (57209615078)
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    Sadeghian, Farideh (55538549800)
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    Saeed, Umar (36612315100)
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    Sahebkar, Amirhossein (26639699900)
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    Saif, Zahra (6504795461)
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    Sakshaug, Joseph W (35300521200)
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    Salahi, Saina (58023701500)
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    Salamati, Payman (14045860600)
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    Samy, Abdallah M (36973661300)
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    Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo (57204744430)
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    Schwebel, David C (6603681532)
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    Senthilkumaran, Subramanian (36191387000)
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    Seylani, Allen (57222325334)
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    Shaikh, Masood Ali (57203122601)
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    Sham, Sunder (58031551200)
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    Shashamo, Bereket Beyene (57223025060)
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    Sheikhi, Rahim Ali (39962437200)
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    Shetty, B Suresh Kumar (7102818010)
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    Shetty, Pavanchand H (56366875300)
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    Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen (57222351357)
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    Singh, Harpreet (57215069784)
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    Singh, Paramdeep (57202809996)
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    Sisay, Eskinder Ayalew (57257093200)
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    Solomon, Yonatan (57220875005)
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    Taheri, Majid (57196608691)
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    Ullah, Irfan (56992676600)
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    Ullah, Sana (56402784100)
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    Violante, Francesco S. (7003555890)
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    Vu, Linh Gia (57210070319)
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    Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana (55326938000)
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    Yigit, Arzu (57820497600)
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    Yonemoto, Naohiro (57204947657)
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    Yousefi, Zabihollah (9743306100)
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    Zaman, Muhammad (56397661100)
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    Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich (56728932200)
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    Zhang, Zhi-Jiang (56068578400)
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    Zheng, Peng (57213707656)
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    Steinmetz, Jaimie D. (57221591053)
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    Vos, Theo (57223885848)
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    Naghavi, Mohsen (57207906323)
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    Ong, Kanyin Liane (57210793447)
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    Ong, Liane (58245634100)
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    Zoladl, Mohammad (53980736300)
    ;
    Chu, Dinh-Toi (56239816300)
    Background: Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. Methods: As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. Findings: In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276–0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700–32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886–1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800–24 000]), and the 50–54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660–2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38–2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98–2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2–63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational injuries and high alcohol use were 13·6% (11·9–16·0) and 3·5% (1·4–6·2), respectively. Interpretation: Improvements in unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality rates have been inconsistent across regions and over time since 2000. Given that unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is almost entirely preventable, policy-level interventions that lower the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning events should be prioritised, such as those that increase access to improved heating and cooking devices, reduce carbon monoxide emissions from generators, and mandate use of carbon monoxide alarms. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

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